Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to last Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered a rather annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs for 2000 that include detailed data like G-F ratio. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we're currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this causes you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Pittsburgh Pirates

a
bxy - Mike Williams
by - Mike Lincoln
x - Al Reyes
y - Scott Sauerbeck
Brian Boehringer
Duaner Sanchez

b
Y - Josh Fogg
Josias Manzanillo

x
Kip Wells

Recent Pirates who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Jimmy Anderson, Bronson Arroyo, Joe Beimel, Kris Benson, Brad Clontz, Francisco Cordova, Mike Garcia, Rich Loiselle, Ramon Martinez, Tony McKnight, Brian Meadows, Brian O'Connor, Omar Olivares, Dan Serafini, Matt Skrmetta, Brian Smith, Steve L. Sparks, Billy Taylor, Salomon Torres, Ron Villone, Ryan Vogelsong, Don Wengert, Marc Wilkins, and Dave Williams.

Pittsburgh's pitching strength currently lies in its bullpen, and the potential late-inning core of Williams, Lincoln, Reyes, Sauerbeck, and Sanchez indicates re-signing Brian Boehringer added little to the team. Unless Pittsburgh only carries one lefty, the return of Boehringer likely forces Lincoln and Sanchez to compete for one roster spot, a silly scenario when Lincoln's been their most consistent right-handed middle reliever over the last two years and Sanchez has nothing left to prove at AAA. Williams at least remains ensconced at the end of the pen, and while his effectiveness over the past couple years is mildly surprising, he's a good bet to remain a solid closer for another season. Feel free to use any of these six pitchers as roster filler, but I only expect Williams to reach double-digit value.

The rotation lacks an ace or even a dependable #2, although Kip Wells should continue emerging as a solid roto option. I have high hopes for a return from Kris Benson to helpful roto status, however Josh Fogg worries me. He held opponents to under a .700 OPS through the first three innings before rapidly deteriorating. Fogg's performance in 2001 suggests he could dominate in a relief role, yet the Pirates obviously will leave him in the rotation with the expectation that he'll develop the requisite endurance to succeed as a starter. I see little upside in most of the rest of the pitchers here, though the Pirates possess relatively solid AAA depth. Fortunately an incredible wealth of promising pitchers at the A-ball level suggests Pittsburgh should return to .500 no later than 2005, and they could surprise in 2003 if they add one more starter and upgrade one of their up-the-middle positions.

St. Louis Cardinals

12
abXy - Jason Isringhausen

1
abx - Matt Morris
a - Woody Williams

2
by - Jeff Fassero

3
b - Dave Veres

a
bxy - Rick White
by - Steve Kline
x - Mike Crudale
x - Chuck Finley
Gene Stechschulte

b
IN MEMORIAM: y - Darryl Kile

y
Bud Smith

Recent Cardinals who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Rick Ankiel, Andy Benes, Justin Brunette, Matt Duff, Luther Hackman, Chad Hutchinson, Kevin Joseph, Jason Karnuth, Gabe Molina, Josh Pearce, Nerio Rodriguez, Jason Simontacchi, Travis Smith, Garrett Stephenson, Jeff Tabaka, Mark Thompson, Dave Wainhouse, and Jamey Wright.

The core of the Cardinals' staff returns in Morris, Williams, Izzy, and Kline, all four of whom look likely to build upon their 2002 performances if they remain healthy all year. Of course, the workloads and injury histories of each pitcher suggest they all could spend some time on the DL, but you should turn a nice profit if you can secure Morris at $20, Williams at $15, Izzy at $25, and Kline at $5.

Simontacchi and Stephenson could emerge as roto contributors, but I don't expect much above a couple bucks of value from either at the moment. While the Cards' minor leagues remain extremely barren, we're starting to see a variety of interesting pitchers reach the top levels of the system. Matt Duff in particular could follow Crudale into the St. Louis bullpen to replace Rick White, though someone like Stechschulte also could contribute out of the bullpen. LaRussa's usage of his relievers and the powerful St. Louis offense guarantee a fair amount of vultured wins for every reliever, so I don't view anyone from the likely 2003 bullpen candidates as a bad choice for roster filler. However only Crudale looks both secure in his role and likely to remain healthy all year.

I'll continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Arizona and Colorado.

Today's Fantasy Rx: St. Louis lacks a veteran right-handed setup man, and since Izzy remains a perennial injury risk, Mike Crudale could wind up with a dozen or more saves. He owns solid skills and an impressive track record of dominating at every level where he's pitched. An investment of a couple dollars here could earn you a double-digit profit.