Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to last Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered an annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs including detailed data like G-F ratio for 2000. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we are currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this may cause you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Chicago Cubs

1
x - Joe Borowski

a
bxy - Antonio Alfonseca
x - Matt Clement
x - Mark Prior
Carlos Zambrano

b
y - Kyle Farnsworth
y - Jon Lieber
Scott Chiasson
Juan Cruz
Ron Mahay
Kevin Tapani

Recent Cubs who did not qualify for any LPR score include Rick Aguilera, Jamie Arnold, Francis Beltran, Alan Benes, Jason Bere, Will Cunnane, Courtney Duncan, Daniel Garibay, Matt Karchner, Pat Mahomes, Joey Nation, Phil Norton, Will Ohman, Donovan Osborne, Steve Rain, Jesus Sanchez, Steve Smyth, Jerry Spradlin, Kerry Wood, and Danny Young.

The most conspicuous name among the non-qualifiers is Kerry Wood, and I am rather surprised he did not manage either an a or b ranking. However, he continued to suffer from control and inconsistency problems throughout 2002. Fortunately his QA scores improved in the second half, and I definitely think he could emerge as one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.

Fellow phenom Mark Prior only needs to remain healthy to finish above $20, and with Clement and Zambrano both possessing significant upside, the Cubs' four right-handers should rank with any rotation in the game.

Chicago's bullpen also looks in better shape after the acquisition of Mike Remlinger. Meanwhile, signings like Dave Veres and Rod Beck at least add more depth. Joe Borowski posted even better overall numbers than Kyle Farnsworth managed the previous season, and I believe the latter will rebound nicely in 2003 after a season spent dealing with a freak foot injury and off-field issues that appeared to thoroughly distract him. Anyone from this group could usurp Alfonseca as closer, but Farnsworth in particular is a great sleeper due to his strikeouts and long-term upside.

Of course, the emphasis placed upon Alfonseca's meager 19 saves and 9 blown saves in 2002 ignores the fact that he essentially posted the same skills as in previous seasons aside from an increased walk rate. The Cubs are paying Alfonseca to close and keeping him at the end of the pen makes a lot of sense since their better pitchers are more useful in middle relief. Thirty saves seems like a good starting point for him this year, and I easily can envision him finishing with one of the best save totals in baseball given the general improvement we expect from most areas of the team.

Cincinnati Reds

a
bY - John Riedling
by - Danny Graves
x - Scott Williamson
Carlos Almanzar
Luis Pineda

b
Jared Fernandez
Scott MacRae

y
Justin Atchley
Frank Rodriguez

Recent Reds who did not qualify for any LPR score include Jose Acevedo, Bruce Chen, Lance Davis, Ryan Dempster, Elmer Dessens, Shawn Estes, Osvaldo Fernandez, Jared Fernandez, Keith Glauber, Joey Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Jimmy Haynes, Luke Hudson, Larry Luebbers, Brian Moehler, Chris Piersoll, Brian Reith, Chris Reitsma, Jose Rijo, Jose Silva, Scott Sullivan, and Gabe White.

The appearance of Cincinnati's likely future, former, and current closers at the top of this list does not surprise me as much as the failure of historically solid roto performers like Dessens, Sullivan, or White to display any consistent talent. While I did not expect Graves to rate highly here, his solid G-F ratio makes him at least a moderately intriguing pick as a starter, although I doubt he will earn anywhere near double-digit value even if he avoids injury due to the workload increase. Both Riedling and Williamson obviously are excellent picks, but I do not even expect any of the other qualifiers to see much time in the majors this year. We like Jared Fernandez's upside, but pitching in Houston is not the best way to accrue roto value.

Considering the troublesome health histories of Cincinnati's set starters, I am not sure anyone here is worth more than an endgame flyer, especially since the new ballpark should be even more hitter-friendly than Cinergy. The bullpen currently looks somewhat stable, but a trade of Sullivan and/or White for salary reasons will leave inconsistent performers like Bruce Chen in primary roles. While we are intrigued by the potential as relievers of converted starters like Luke Hudson and Chris Reitsma, this team looks much better with these two guys in long relief, Chen and Riedling in middle relief, and White, Sullivan, and Williamson at the end of the pen. Do not expect a significant roto contribution from the youngsters if the Reds break camp with a limited veteran presence.

I will continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Houston and Milwaukee.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While Cincinnati's top four starters look set at Haynes, Dempster, Graves, and Paul Wilson, and Williamson established himself as the closer at the end of 2002, both the fifth starter's job and most bullpen spots look very available. We obviously still favor Jose Acevedo for the last starter's job, but most of the competition for open bullpen jobs, especially guys like John Riedling and Luke Hudson, have posted solid numbers in the fairly recent past. I think at least one of these guys will approach double-digit value, although we will not know the best gamble until the Reds start setting bullpen roles toward the end of Spring Training.