Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to last Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered an annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs including detailed data like G-F ratio for 2000. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we are currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this may cause you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Montreal Expos

2
abxy - Scott Stewart
ab - Javier Vazquez

a
xy - Joey Eischen
Bartolo Colon
Zach Day
Matt Herges

b
y - Ed Vosberg

x
Britt Reames

y
Bob Scanlan

Recent Expos who did not qualify for any LPR score include Tony Armas, Jr., Matt Blank, Jim Brower, Darwin Cubillan, Scott Downs, Tim Drew, Scott Forster, Mike Johnson, Sun-Woo Kim, Yovanny Lara, Felipe Lira, Troy Mattes, Bobby Munoz, Tomo Ohka, Chris Peters, Jim Poole, Jeremy Powell, Brad Rigby, Matt Skrmetta, Dan Smith, Sean Spencer, T.J. Tucker, and Masato Yoshii.

Even if the Expos acquire a right-handed alternative to Stewart, he again should reach double-digit value due to his solid contributions in every category. Vazquez, while unable to build upon his great 2001 finish, still looks like one of the better bets to emerge as an elite starter in the near future. He is an excellent target regardless of his team.

Although I am not too impressed by most of the Expos' relievers, the late-inning core of Stewart, Tucker, Eischen, and likely Reames and/or Day presents intriguing roto possibilities. Eischen is one of the best pitchers likely to be available in Dollar Days, and the others all could wind up with a half-dozen or more saves. Day in particular offers a lot of upside if left in the bullpen. I do not expect Montreal to remain too competitive in the NL East in 2003, however they are still a good source of sleepers that many owners ignore.

New York Mets

1
axy - Steve Reed

2
ab - Al Leiter
b - Grant Roberts

a
bx - Armando Benitez
bx - Mark Guthrie
by - Scott Strickland
X - Pat Strange
x - Jason Middlebrook
Kane Davis
Pedro Feliciano

b
y - Dave Weathers
Pedro Astacio
John Franco
John Thomson
Steve Trachsel

x
Jaime Cerda

Recent Mets who did not qualify for any LPR score include Mike Bacsik, Eric Cammack, Jeff D'Amico, Dicky Gonzalez, Brett Hinchcliffe, Satoru Komiyama, Jae Weong Seo, and Tyler Walker

New York possessed an extremely skilled group of pitchers in 2002, a collection that made their woeful offense even more glaring. Unfortunately among the Mets' starters, only Al Leiter and Steve Trachsel even pitched decently, and poor performances in the bullpen from Kane Davis and Satoru Komiyama left New York with the 6th best pen in the league. They might have held the #3 ranking without the struggles of Davis and Komiyama. The strength of the system lies in current AAAA pitchers like Pat Strange, Jae Seo, and Tyler Walker, all of whom could emerge as helpful contributors or remain no more than borderline major leaguers.

For fantasy owners, there at least is a solid selection here of both frontline talent and bullpen filler. Armando Benitez remains one of the undisputed elite closers in the game, and Al Leiter anchors a rotation filled with both promise and doubt. Strickland and Weathers provide solid set-up work, and Strickland still should emerge as a closer within the next few years, possibly while on the Mets. The most intriguing sleeper here is Jason Middlebrook, who should break camp as the 5th starter and could reach double-digit value if he can echo his late-season 2002 performance.

Philadelphia Phillies

2
bxy - Jose Mesa
by - Rheal Cormier

a
bxy - Terry Adams
bxy - Mike Timlin
bx - Ricky Bottalico
y - Jose Santiago
Hector Mercado
Carlos Silva

b
xy - Vicente Padilla
y - Brandon Duckworth
Dan Plesac

x
Randy Wolf

Recent Phillies who did not qualify for any LPR score include Scott Aldred, Mark Brownson, Kirk Bullinger, Dave Coggin, Mark Holzemer, Tom Jacquez, Eric Junge, Robert Person, Joe Roa, Steve Schrenk, Amaury Telemaco, and Turk Wendell.

Philadelphia's three major additions when combined with the Braves' rotation and bullpen decline leave the Phillies primed to supplant Atlanta in the East for the first time. Mesa, Cormier, Adams, Mercado, Silva, and Plesac, while not the most dominant nor effective bullpen in baseball, are all relatively skilled pitchers capable of contributing to a 1st place team. Either Adams or Silva could see time at closer, and none of the lefties would hurt as roster filler.

Of course, the new strength of this team is a young yet very impressive rotation. Behind Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla should accumulate significant roto value. Brandon Duckworth also should noticeably improve given his 9.2 K/9IP. I am mildly concerned about Brett Myers' immediate prospects, however he should win around a dozen games without inflicting much qualitative damage. Joe Roa is a very capable swingman who possesses excellent command. I see few holes on this staff other than the lack of AAAA depth recently added by teams like Boston and Pittsburgh, and if someone like Dave Coggin or Bud Smith can return to health and contribute in the second half, there is little reason for this staff not to split 90+ wins.

I will continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Chicago and Cincinnati.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Regardless of the destinations of the players the Expos trade to pare payroll, do not specifically plan on acquiring either Colon or Vazquez. Both pitchers have accumulated significant workloads over the past few years, and their falling strikeout rates suggest they could encounter injury problems. I do not expect Colon to post especially strong numbers in 2004, and while Vazquez possesses nice upside, I think he is more likely only to approach $30 in 2004 given his mostly unimpressive showing this past season.