Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to last Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered a rather annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs for 2000 that include detailed data like G-F ratio. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we're currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this causes you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Atlanta Braves

23
abxY - Greg Maddux

1
abXy - John Smoltz
ax - Kevin Millwood

a
bxy - Mike Remlinger
x - Chris Hammond
x - Darren Holmes
x - Albie Lopez
x - Tim Spooneybarger

b
Marc Valdes

Recent Braves who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Stan Belinda, Jung Bong, Joey Dawley, John Ennis, John Foster, Tom Glavine, Kevin Gryboski, Trey Hodges, Scott Kamieniecki, Kerry Ligtenberg, Jason Marquis, Kevin McGlinchy, Greg McMichael, Trey Moore, Damian Moss, Joe Nelson, Andy Pratt, Chris Seelbach, Aaron Small, Scott Sobkowiak, Dave Stevens, Ismael Villegas, and Matt Whiteside.

Atlanta's handling of its pitching staff this offseason ranks with the worst sequence of GM moves in recent memory. I can't think of another team that let one Hall of Famer depart, wound up in arbitration with another, overpaid for a peaking veteran, dealt a young lefty for an expensive #3 starter, and then sent their best young pitcher to their primary competitor. Plus, all these moves occurred after a laughable trade for probably the worst pitcher in the majors over the last two years even by ballpark-neutral stats. Now either Jason Marquis moves to long relief or Trey Hodges, who has nothing left to prove in the minors, undeservedly stays out of the rotation. I'm not sure any of Atlanta's current projected starters are likely to far exceed their respective 2002 performances.

The reworking of the bullpen also leaves them exposed as only Smoltz, Holmes, and Gryboski return from last season. Acquiring Ray King gives them a mostly acceptable replacement for Remlinger, however unless they're willing to employ guys like Hodges and 31-year-old rookie Joey Dawley in relief, Atlanta looks likely to drop 10 or more games in the standings just because of their pitching changes. Losing Glavine and the majority of pitchers from one of the best bullpens in history leaves them primed to miss the playoffs for the first time since 1990 unless they manage to significantly upgrade some position in the infield.

Most of the departing Braves' relievers look like solid roto buys in 2003, although I doubt anyone will approach double-digit value. Glavine remains extremely risky due to his failing skills and age, though the combination of Shea and the likely resurgence in the Mets' defense will keep him around $10. Millwood has the most immediate upside of any of these pitchers, and we hope he finishes emerging as an ace after Atlanta so foolishly discarded him.

Florida Marlins

2
By - Brad Penny
x - Vladimir Nunez

a
by - Braden Looper
x - Armando Almanza
x - Toby Borland
x - A.J. Burnett

b
Y - Joe Strong
y - Graeme Lloyd
Benito Baez
Vic Darensbourg
Chuck Smith

Recent Marlins who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Josh Beckett, Ricky Bones, Reid Cornelius, Alex Fernandez, Jason Grilli, Hansel Izquierdo, Gary Knotts, Oswalso Mairena, Blaine Neal, Kevin Olsen, Carl Pavano, Nate Robertson, Johnny Ruffin, Julian Tavarez, Michael Tejera, Nate Teut, and Justin Wayne.

Penny looks set to rebound strongly once he regains his health, giving the Marlins three dynamic right-handers at the top of their rotation. While I'll be surprised if Penny, Burnett, or Beckett exceeds $20, all three should finish comfortably in double digits. Michael Tejera seems likely to join them if left in the rotation, although he's a riskier pick than the righties. Despite the many sources we've seen suggesting Wayne belongs in the rotation, I don't expect him to find much success in the majors in 2003, but I think he'll look very interesting a year from now if they leave him in the minors at least through July.

Florida's bullpen could be surprisingly strong as Looper, Almanza, and Nunez give them a solid late-inning combo even before considering Spooneybarger, Neal, and perhaps Tejera or even Baez if he's healthy. Few teams possess four hard-throwing right-handers who've all displayed closer-caliber skills in the recent past, and all these right-handers should exceed $5 in 2003. Nunez, who we liked the best here a year ago, now might be the only one from this group who isn't closing for some team in two years. The only risk in targeting Looper and Neal for long-term saves help is that they could wind up in the American League.

I'll continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Montreal, New York, and Philadelphia.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Hampton trade propelled Spooneybarger into the spotlight as the main player Florida acquired from Atlanta. While both his strikeout and walk rates were short of expected levels this year, he's dominated at every minor league level and still displayed consistently good skills in most of his appearances in 2002. I think Florida will give Looper every chance to keep the job until they can trade him for a couple of decent prospects, however Spooneybarger still should begin closing within the next two years. He's an excellent target in keeper leagues as long as they can grab him below the high single digits.