Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered a rather annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs for 2000 that include detailed data like G-F ratio. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we're currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this causes you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Seattle Mariners

12
aBxY - Arthur Rhodes

2
ax - Norm Charlton
y - Joel Pineiro
Freddy Garcia

A
x - Aaron Taylor

a
bxy - Kazuhiro Sasaki
by - Jeff Nelson
Brian Fitzgerald
Julio Mateo

y
Shigetoshi Hasegawa

Recent Mariners who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Paul Abbott, James Baldwin, Doug Creek, Ryan Franklin, John Halama, Kevin Hodges, Justin Kaye, Gil Meche, Jamie Moyer, Rob Ramsay, Rafael Soriano, Ismael Valdes, and Mark Watson.

Teams scored fewer runs in Safeco than in any other AL park other than Detroit's Comerica. With run scoring and most offensive statistics thus depressed by the park, Seattle pitchers, like some Tigers, would be good investments even if they lacked good skills. Fortunately the Mariners continue to possess a pitching staff full of intriguing fantasy options.

The best potential bargains here are likely Sasaki and Rhodes. Sasaki's post-season surgery makes him questionable for opening day, and Rhodes will likely pick up any excess save opportunities. You probably should aim to grab both if you look to target either pitcher, especially since Rhodes consistently earns around $10 due to his fantastic skills. You might be able to roster both for the same $30 you'd invest in almost any closer, and a $45 return wouldn't surprise me.

Seattle starting pitching unfortunately looks far more questionable. Moyer turned 40 in November, Garcia and Pineiro have both been overworked over the past couple years, and Franklin's unproven; I see little to suggest any of these pitchers will much exceed their 2002 performance. Although I like some of the younger pitchers here, the Mariners' inability to keep their top prospects healthy calls their development methods into question. I still think Seattle pitchers in general are good buys due to Safeco, however few pitchers stand out as players you specifically should target.

Texas Rangers

1
ax - Francisco Cordero

a
by - John Rocker
by - Rich Rodriduez

b
Y - Jeff Zimmerman
y - Dan Miceli
y - Rudy Seanez
Chan Ho Park
Dennys Reyes
J.D. Smart
Todd Van Poppel

x
y - Danny Kolb
Hideki Irabu

y
Tim Crabtree
Jay Powell

Recent Rangers who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Juan Alvarez, Rob Bell, Joaquin Benoit, Jeff Brantley, Mark Clark, Doug Davis, R.A. Dickey, Justin Duchscherer, Kevin Foster, Reynaldo Garcia, Ryan Glynn, Mike Judd, Ben Kozlowski, Colby Lewis, Chris Michalak, Mike Munoz, Aaron Myette, C.J. Nitkowski, Mark Petkovesek, Kenny Rogers, Brian Sikorski, Anthony Telford, John Wetteland, and Steve Woodard.

While fourteen Rangers achieved an LPR score, only one, Chan Ho Park, has pitched effectively as a starter. Yet Texas again targeted relievers in free agency instead of securing a veteran starter or two to insure they don't need to overwork their youngsters. I like the long-term upside of guys like Benoit and Lewis, however I don't see any starter here likely to reach double-digits in 2003 other than Park. Of course, although Texas lacks the prospect depth of teams like Cleveland and San Francisco, they also appear committed to letting their youngsters learn in the majors, so I also wouldn't be too surprised by a breakout year from Benoit, Lewis, or even Doug Davis.

The bullpen obviously holds some gems for us with Cordero topping that list due to both his skills and the expectation he'll resume closing as soon as the trade deadline. Zimmerman is only a questionable speculative buy since he'll miss at least most of 2003 and hasn't shown much year-to-year consistency. I again suspect we could see a middle reliever here earn 10 or more wins, and the new alignment of the pen leaves Cordero, Powell, and Van Poppel the top candidates to attain much quantitative value.

I'll continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Atlanta and Florida.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners and Rangers each add another starter before the season begins since both rotations look a little shallow. While several of the current free agent starters could reach 15 wins on either team thanks to the respective offenses and bullpen depth, I'd expect an ERA of at least .50 higher from anyone joining Texas than if the same pitcher had signed with Seattle. Only pitchers in Coors allowed more runs than hurlers in Arlington, making Texas one of the worst places to look for help in the qualitative categories.