Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered a rather annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs for 2000 that include detailed data like G-F ratio. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we're currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this causes you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Chicago White Sox

1
abxy - Keith Foulke
a - Damaso Marte

a
b - Kelly Wunsch
x - Mark Buehrle

y
Lorenzo Barcelo

Recent White Sox who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Rocky Biddle, Cal Eldred, Jon Garland, Matt Ginter, Gary Glover, Antonio Osuna, Jim Parque, Mike Porzio, Bill Pulsipher, Jon Rauch, Todd Ritchie, Bill Simas, Mike Sirotka, Ken Vining, and Danny Wright.

Chicago will descend from one of the more impressive bullpens in baseball to an average pen thanks to trading Foulke for the overrated and overworked Billy Koch. We'll be mildly surprised if Foulke isn't the most valuable closer in the game for fantasy teams in 2003, and his departure puts more pressure on Chicago's untested middle relievers like Matt Ginter. The lack of a #2 starter and/or veteran innings eater also leaves the end of the bullpen open to additional overwork, illuminating the folly of Chicago's strategy to build from the back of the staff towards the starters. At least Marte and Wunsch give them two decent lefties, and Marte in particular looks likely to reach double-digit value next year. Of course, I remain very uncertain of Buehrle's immediate future as I expect he'll need a DL trip soon.

While there's seemingly a lot of talent among the non-qualifiers here, only Osuna, Rauch, and Wright jump out as overly intriguing picks; even Osuna is risky due to his flyball tendencies. Rauch had no business pitching in the majors until September, and he seems likely to settle into the #4 slot by the end of the season, making him a great target in keeper leagues. Wright posted great numbers towards the end of the year, so while he'll still struggle at times, he's the only young Sox starter with a decent chance of joining Buehrle in earning double-digit value in 2003. Todd Ritchie is obviously a high-risk, medium-reward gamble at this point, and his 2003 destination will determine his value.

Cleveland Indians

2
aBxY - Bob Wickman

a
by - Danys Baez
X - Alex Herrera
x - Chad Paronto
x - Carl Sadler

b
Jerrod Riggan
David Riske

x
David Elder

y
Mark Wohlers

Recent Indians who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Jamie Brewington, Dave Burba, Cam Cairncross, Jason Davis, Sean DePaula, Ryan Drese, Cliff Lee, Willie Martinez, David Maurer, Terry Mulholland, Heath Murray, Charles Nagy, Jaime Navarro, Alan Newman, Jason C. Phillips, Scott Radinsky, Ricardo Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Smith, Brian Tallet, Jake Westbrook, Brian Williams, and Jaret Wright.

The first and most obvious trend on this list is the complete absence of any starters. Trading Bartolo Colon provided a massive infusion of young talent to the system but even if they re-sign him as a free agent in a year, Cleveland remains without any proven starters from their 2002 roster heading into 2003. Sabathia and all the rookies are among the riskiest players in the game, and I'd exercise reluctance when looking to invest in any of them.

Fortunately the bullpen here provides many intriguing possibilities. Baez dominated while pitching in relief in each of the last two seasons, and I see no reason why he won't emerge as an excellent closer. However Wickman also offers significant possibilities in keeper leagues. He's signed through 2004, and assuming his recovery from Tommy John surgery progresses as expected, Cleveland looks likely to return him to the closer role in 2004 due to both his contact and impressive work over the last two years. Snagging him at the end of an auction gives you either a nice bargain or great trade bait.

Herrera, Sadler, Riggan, Riske, and Wohlers seem likely to provide much of Baez's setup corps, although the recent re-signings of Burba and Mulholland don't leave space for everyone. Fortunately Herrera needs a year at AAA, so while there's little space here for anyone new, this seven-man bullpen looks set. The best two youngsters in Spring Training will slot behind Sabathia, Jason Bere, and Brian Anderson in the rotation, so while there's a lot of upside from these players, Baez and Wohlers are the only players I would specifically target in most drafts.

I'll continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with the remaining teams from the American League Central.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Between Chicago and Cleveland we could see a dozen or more pitchers at age 25 or younger start games in 2003. Unfortunately I'm not sure anyone aside from the established lefty aces of each team will add much to most fantasy teams. Consider the cadre of young starters from each city primarily as long-term targets. Even rebuilding teams might not want to invest in these squads since the relative depth on both rosters means that few pitchers will see extended opportunities unless they succeed relatively quickly.