Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered a rather annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs for 2000 that include detailed data like G-F ratio. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we're currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this causes you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

New York Yankees

123
aBxY - Mariano Rivera

2
abxy - Steve Karsay
abY - Roger Clemens
b - Mike Mussina
b - Ramiro Mendoza

a
y - Randy Choate
y - Andy Pettitte
Jeff Weaver

x
Orlando Hernandez
David Wells

Recent Yankees who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Darrell Einertson, Ben Ford, Dwight Gooden, Adrian Hernandez, Sterling Hitchcock, Randy Keisler, Brandon Knight, Christian Parker, Mike Stanton, Jay Tessmer, Mike Thurman, Allen Watson, Todd Williams, and Ed Yarnall.

Rivera should regain ace closer status in 2003, since I expect him to stay healthy. Clemens and Mussina still both look like solid starters, and I see no problem with rostering El Duque, or Wells. Pettitte finished the year with eight straight dominant starts, and he'll earn Cy Young votes if he stays healthy all year. Karsay and Mendoza each could pick up a half-dozen or more saves now that they're on different teams, and Choate looks like an intriguing sleeper, although I'd probably wait to use him as roster filler if needed.

Stanton is a logical target among non-qualifiers, though there's nothing indicating much upside in his stats. I also like Adrian Hernandez if he's left in a relief role due to his lack of stamina. Most of the other non-qualifiers are not likely to return to New York in 2003.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

3
Paul Wilson

a
Lance Carter
Ryan Rupe

b
y - Esteban Yan
y - Victor Zambrano
Bobby Seay

Recent Devil Rays who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Wilson Alvarez, Brandon Backe, Nick Bierbrodt, Dewon Brazelton, Jesus Colome, Luis de los Santos, Dave Eiland, Trevor Enders, Lee Gardner, Juan Guzman, Travis Harper, Ken Hill, Delvin James, Joe Kennedy, Steve Kent, Tom Martin, Rusty Meacham, Jim Morris, Travis Phelps, Ariel Prieto, Brian Rose, Jorge Sosa, Jeff Sparks, Jason Standridge, Tanyon Sturtze, Jeff Wallace, and Dan Wheeler.

Tampa managed to non-tender three of their pitchers with mildly bright short-term futures rather than trade them during the season for any available prospects. Now their best move for 2003 involves grabbing a cheap temporary centerfielder while Baldelli spends one more year in the minors, and then stacking the rotation behind Joe Kennedy and Victor Zambrano with two veteran innings eaters. As long as their bullpen isn't forced into a hideous state of overwork, I see a lot of promise in their young relievers.

A late-inning core of Carter, Travis Harper, and Bobby Seay has a lot of upside, and Travis Phelps looked like a future closer only a year ago. Jesus Colome can fill a middle relief role, and then any couple of decent minor league free agents can complete the pen. However Tampa seems more likely to slag Jorge Sosa and Dewon Brazelton, both of whom desperately need at least one more year in the minors, by leaving the youngsters in the rotation, thus vastly increasing the pressure on the bullpen. Piniella's managed some of the best pens of the last two decades, but Tampa presents a far greater challenge than the Nasty Boys or Kaz & Co. in Seattle.

I don't see a single pitcher here that looks like a safe play, however Carter and Harper, if given set roles in the bullpen, will emerge as valuable roto contributors. While Kennedy and Zambrano aren't bad gambles, you probably should avoid every other pitcher currently set for Tampa's staff.

Toronto Blue Jays

12
Abx - Roy Halladay

2
ax - Cliff Politte

a
b - Kelvim Escobar
X - Brian Bowles
x - Mark Hendrickson

b
y - Brandon Lyon

X
Bob File

y
John Frascatore

Recent Blue Jays who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Clayton Andrews, Chris Carpenter, Scott Cassidy, Pasqual Coco, Brian Cooper, Leo Estrella, Eric Gunderson, Felix Heredia, Jason Kershner, Esteban Loaiza, Justin Miller, Steve Parris, Luke Prokopec, Mike Smith, Corey Thurman, Pete Walker, and Scott Wiggins.

While they don't possess even decent pitching depth at the moment, Toronto's staff contains several pitchers with significant upside. Halladay already ranks with the best AL pitchers, and I'm only concerned about him due to his significant workload increase; don't project him for more than 200 innings. Hendrickson is the intriguing sleeper among their starters as he both shouldn't hurt you and could emerge as a double-digit value.

The most noticeable trend here involves relatively decent performances by relievers whose stats don't look too impressive. LPR suggests Bowles, File, and Frascatore are all relatively safe picks, and Bowles in particularly could develop into a quality setup man if he conquers his control problems. I don't like Lyon's short-term upside, but he might wind up a decent sleeper if Boston suffers a couple injuries. Escobar remains a reliable closer for the moment, however these numbers illustrate why the Jays are open to trading him and installing Politte at the end of the pen.

None of the non-qualifiers looks like a safe bet, and while the minor league numbers of Miller, Smith, Thurman, Walker, and Wiggins all look interesting, wait to see decent skills in the majors from any of them before investing. Although Loaiza's also not a bad pitcher to own, his consistently high hit rates look likely to damage your WHIP.

Lastly, Chris Carpenter posted a couple solid strings of starts in the last two seasons, so he could be a great sleeper if he regains his health in St. Louis. I wouldn't spend more than a buck or two on him in the draft, but you could wind up with a #3 starter for a very modest investment.

I'll continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with teams from the American League Central.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Given the ages and injury histories of the eight Yankee starters, only Jeff Weaver seems likely to start 30 games. Of course, with Clemens, Mussina, Wells, and Pettitte virtually guaranteed rotation slots because of their excessive salaries, either Weaver or Jose Contreras will join El Duque and Hitchcock in the bullpen. At this point, I would be mildly surprised if any New York starter wound up starting even 30 games, leaving Mussina as the best bet for 30, so I can't imagine he'd pitch more than about 200 innings. The Yankees possess a wealth of starting talent, however you can't depend upon superlative quantitative numbers(20 wins, 200 K, 200 IP with good ERA and WHIP) from any of them. Limit projections to 200 innings or less for each pitcher and you'll avoid much of a loss and potentially see a nice profit on those starters who you still acquire.