Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Designated Hitters

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ellis Burks		518	156	.301	32	91	2	92	D
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	24		18		12		16
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	23		18		12		15

Burks finished as the 24th most valuable AL position player, and his $24 total is essentially double the value of Frank Thomas, Josh Phelps, and David Ortiz, the three next best players who only qualified at DH. His .903 OPS only dropped 8 points from his 2001 mark, a remarkable accomplishment that demonstrates his batting discipline. Unfortunately a 21-point jump in batting average masked a drop in his OBP and SLG, as well as decreases in nearly all his skills. Burks'.08 walk rate, .79 contact rate, 3.82 #P/PA, and 1.34 G-F are each worse than his 2001 marks, as well as worse than his career rates. Over a third of his value rests in batting average and he hadn't previously reached this many at-bats since 1996 due to injury, making any bid above the mid-teens very risky.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Thomas		523	132	.252	28	92	3	77	D
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	13		10		20		25
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	13		10		21		19

Thomas' new contract gives him ample incentive to excel on a yearly basis, and now that discussion of his diminished skills clause is over, hopefully he can refocus on hitting. Fortunately there's still enough upside in his skills to hope for a rebound regardless of whatever attitude he brings to camp in 2003. His most promising numbers are a 4.26 #P/PA and .40 G-F, each a nice improvement from 2001, and his great G-F ratio continues a three-year trend of developing power potential. A .17 walk rate is great even if it's short his usual standards, however a .78 contact rate is his lowest mark since his debut in 1990, and his .77 BB:K doesn't suggest a pending return to a .300 batting average. I think Thomas is an excellent bet for a 30/100 season or better, but any batting average above .270 would be a surprise.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Phelps		265	82	.309	15	58	0	41	D
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9				2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	11		9				2

While he posted a season that would have deserved Rookie of the Year consideration in many other years, Phelps failed to display the skills that would support a strong follow-up. A .07 walk rate and 3.68 #P/PA indicate he's only a reasonably patient hitter, and his .69 contact rate suggests that he's extremely unlikely to post a .300 BA in 2003. The good news is that his .97 G-F supports continued power development, and since he'll hit behind a group that includes Shannon Stewart, Eric Hinske, Vernon Wells, and Carlos Delgado, 25 HR and 90 RBI look like his downside. A $20+ bid on Phelps appears to be a poor investment, but almost anything in the teens gives you a great chance for a small profit.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Ortiz		412	112	.272	20	75	1	52	D
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	12		9		19		12
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	12		9		18		13

Ortiz would have approached 30 HR and 100 RBI if not for missing a month when he needed a small bone chip removed from his left knee. We've seen several reports over the past few days that he's close to signing with the Red Sox, and even if they platoon him due to his .637 OPS against lefties, his .919 OPS against right-handers suggests he could reach a .300/20/90 season even without 400 at-bats. Ortiz's 4.13 #P/PA and .73 G-F demonstrate his patience and power potential, and while a .79 contact rate limits his upside, he's a solid hitter who deserves a starting job. He has a better chance to reach $20 in 2003 than Josh Phelps, and the combination of his age and skill trends suggests a probable breakout year.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgar Martinez		328	91	.277	15	59	1	42	D
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		8		18		19
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	9		7		17		16

The quality of designated hitters drops off fairly rapidly after Martinez, and Martinez's age and growing injury history suggest he finally might fall into single-digit value for the first time in a decade. While his .86 G-F is his best mark since his second season in the majors, his .79 contact rate is his lowest mark since that same season. Even a .20 walk rate, his best since 1997, won't compensate for his decreasing contact rate, so I don't expect a return to a .300 BA. Most of Martinez's 2003 value will come from his power numbers, and a projection of more than 350 at-bats looks unreasonable given his health problems and the presence of Greg Colbrunn. The only way to protect a solid chance for a profit is to stop bidding on Martinez before reaching double-digits.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Baerga		182	52	.286	2	19	6	17	D
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	6		5		-3
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	5		4		-2		R

No one expected Baerga to exceed $5 in value in his first season in the majors since 1999, however he parlayed a .89 contact rate into his best batting average since his 1995 heyday with Cleveland. Unfortunately there's no indication of any development in his plate patience or power potential, and a career-worst 2.74 G-F keeps his HR upside pinned below 5 almost regardless of his playing time. His .286/.316/.379 average line didn't earn him an invitation to return due to his terrible on-base marks, and he'll be lucky to get a long look in the spring from any team. Don't even consider rostering Baerga before Dollar Days, and you should avoid using him as much as possible during the season due to his BA downside.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dmitri Young		201	57	.284	7	27	2	25	D
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	6		5		18		21
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	5		4		17		20

We're obviously concerned that Young doesn't recognize that Carlos Pena will remain at first base for the Tigers because he's an excellent defender, however we believe Young will adapt to returning to his former role as an outfield starter by the start of the regular season. He missed the majority of 2002 due to a nagging hernia injury, and since he gave no indication of any skill development when healthy, he'll likely struggle to match his marks from his Cincinnati seasons. Comerica should keep his average below .300, and his failure to demonstrate any power growth suggests a .290/20/70 season probably represents his peak. I don't see a high likelihood of a profit if bidding reaches the upper teens.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shawn Wooten		113	33	.292	3	19	2	13	D
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		1		13
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	3		2		1		5

John Zaleski's $13 bid for Wooten still looks excessive a year later even though I know he didn't have better alternatives. However anyone who added Wooten for only a couple bucks saw a nice profit and could have replaced him on the roster for the entire first half, thus essentially doubling the potential profit of the selection. Wooten recovered nicely from a torn ligament in his right thumb, and he could reach double-digit value fairly easily if the Angels let him DH full-time. Unfortunately the flooded free agent market basically guarantees they'll find a platoon-mate for Wooten, keeping his immediate value low even though his upside remains intriguing.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Ugueto		23	5	.217	1	1	8	19	D
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2		-1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	2		2		-1

We're beginning to seriously question Lou Piniella's managerial qualifications based on his extolling of the Rey Ordonez acquisition, potential burnout from managing for 15 of the last 16 seasons, and especially because he let Ugueto DH 16 times. A Rule 5 pick from the Marlins' Florida State League affiliate of A+ Brevard County, Ugueto's .263/.330/.342 back in 2001 indicated little upside. His .217/.280/.347 marks in the majors are more impressive than Seattle has any right to expect, but all of Ugueto's roto value comes from his steals. Although his 3.80 #P/PA actually indicated decent patience, he probably should start next season at AA if the Mariners expect him to develop into a capable starter, leaving him with absolutely no fantasy value in 2003.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt LeCroy		181	47	.260	7	27	0	19	D
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		1		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	2		2		1		R

While we believe Bobby Kielty and Todd Sears also merit major league starting jobs in 2003, Minnesota would need to move Jacque Jones and Doug Mientkiewicz for either of those scenarios to materialize since the release of Dave Ortiz gives LeCroy first dibs at DH. He's looked ready to start in the majors at least for the last three years, however the number of great hitting prospects behind him in the organization means he needs to produce almost immediately. Since he only managed a .639 OPS against right-handers in 2002, and even his .869 mark against left-handers wasn't too impressive, I'm not sure LeCroy will remain in the lineup for more than about 350 at-bats. He's not a particularly patient hitter, so his only real offensive tool is power, which obviously limits his upside. Although twenty homers look quite reasonable here, don't expect a notable contribution in any other category, making any bidding into double-digits quite risky even if his six games behind the plate mean he qualifies at catcher in your league.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jacob Cruz		88	24	.273	2	6	3	12	D
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	2		2		0
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	1		1		0

Bone chips in his left elbow cost Cruz the majority of the 2002 season, an unfortunate circumstance considering his .273/.377/.398 represented his best overall performance in the majors. He's displayed increasing patience over the past few years, and if he can build upon his career-best 1.19 G-F, Cruz could post fairly impressive numbers in the near future. His biggest obstacle is finding a roster spot, but you shouldn't hesitate to employ him as roster filler when you have an opening as long as his in-season skills look fairly respectable.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Segui		95	25	.263	2	16	0	10	D
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:L	4x4:	1		1		10		14
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	0		0		11		15

Although he's displayed decent patience and power potential since joining Baltimore for the 2001 season, injuries have prevented him from reaching even a total of 400 at-bats over the past two years. He should play full-time when healthy since he historically doesn't suffer from bad platoon splits, and of course he's guaranteed $7M in each of the next two seasons. Segui's 2002 season essentially ended after his left hand was spiked at the end of April, yet somehow Baltimore didn't discover he had torn cartilage and tendons for almost a month after the injury. While any wrist injury reduces our power expectations, he should finish recovering by Spring Training, and a season of 400 at-bats, along with a .300 BA, 15 HR, and 60 RBI looks fairly reasonable at the moment. You should see a nice profit if you can roster him for less than $10.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Howie Clark		53	16	.302	0	4	0	3	D
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-1		0

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Baltimore Prospects for comments on Clark.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Richard		155	36	.232	4	21	0	15	D
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	0		0		3		R
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	0		0		3		1

Shoulder surgery cost Richard over half the 2002 season, and Baltimore didn't activate him until the trade deadline. He's not a particularly patient hitter, however, his .89 G-F indicates good power potential, and we can expect at least a half dozen steals from him. The major obstacle to Richard exceeding $10 by more than a couple bucks is that he's not much better than any of his teammates, and while Jay Gibbons possesses the most upside, Jeff Conine, Marty Cordova, and Dave Segui are getting paid significant salaries. He also can't hit lefties, as evidenced by his .549 career OPS against southpaws. Since he lacks notable upside and faces an uphill battle to find playing time, I see no justification for remaining in any bidding above single-digits.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Hafner		62	15	.242	1	6	0	6	D
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Texas Prospects for comments on Hafner.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Drew Henson		1	0	.000	0	0	0	1	D
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1				R
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-1				R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (A) Prospects for comments on Henson.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Wright		3	0	.000	0	0	0	0	D
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Seattle Prospects for comments on Wright.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pedro Swann		12	1	.083	0	1	0	3	D
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for comments on Swann.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Munson		59	11	.186	2	5	0	3	D
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1				2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-2				R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Munson.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dean Palmer		12	0	.000	0	0	0	0	D
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-2		6		10
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-3		-2		7		5

I doubt many people realize that Palmer debuted in the majors and has been a regular starter for over a decade. He surpassed 500 at-bats in seven seasons, and he'd experienced relatively little injury trouble in his career until 2001. A shoulder injury cost him much of 2001, and lingering pain and tendinitis in his shoulder kept him out for basically all of 2002. However he should return to the starting lineup in 2003, and while the Tigers hope that Eric Munson can play enough third base to let Palmer rest his shoulder at DH, both players should start a majority of the time. Although Palmer suffers from excessive strikeouts and a weak contact rate that limits his batting average, he possesses good power potential and will benefit from the Tigers' decision to move in the left field fence. He should finished somewhere between 25/80 and 30/100, and although I don't expect him to reach a .250 BA, you should see a decent profit if you can sneak him through bidding under double-digits.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Designated Hitters

Baltimore Orioles
Minor League Free Agents:
Howie Clark is listed above.

Chicago White Sox
Prospects:
Jose Canseco, 38, B:R, T:R.
11/64 for .172/.280/.422 with 5 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 1/1 SB%,
and 9:21 BB:K at AAA Charlotte(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: Retired.
Long-term Upside & ETA: None.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Minnesota
Prospects:
Nestor Smith, 24, B:S, T:R.
0/9 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, 1/1 SB%,
and 0:5 BB:K at AA New Britain(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+ backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

San Francisco
Prospects:
Carlos Valderrama, 24, B:R, T:R.
127/434 for .293/.360/.507 with 19 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 18/23 SB%,
and 44:83 BB:K between AA+ San Jose(Cal) and AA Shreveport(TL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.

Toronto Blue Jays
Minor League Free Agents:
Pedro Swann is listed above.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The DH spot looks like a source of significant bargains for anyone willing to forego the flexibility of slotting someone who qualifies at other positions here. Josh Phelps offers the most upside, but Frank Thomas could post another MVP season at any time. David Ortiz, Matt LeCroy, Dmitri Young, Travis Hafner, Eric Munson, and Dean Palmer all look to have starting positions to themselves, and each at least should approach double-digit value.