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January 1st 2003 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
On the Ninth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
Philadelphia's veteran-depleted bench currently features Michaels and Ricky Ledee as the reserve outfielders. I suspect both will remain with the team for the majority of 2003, and Michaels, a Bowa favorite, seems likely to emerge as the top backup. Four different teams drafted Michaels, and he apparently made the right decision each time as his standing rose from the 49th round with the Padres to the 44th round with the Devil Rays and the 15th round with the Cardinals. He finally signed with the Phillies after they selected him in the 4th round in 1998. We can't expect a good batting average from Michaels given his consistently abundant strikeout totals and therefore questionable contact rate, but a .12 walk rate and 4.23 #P/PA demonstrate his patience, and a .87 G-F hints at his power potential. He's an excellent target for Dollar Days considering he looks to possess solid upside in three-to-four categories.
He again failed to establish himself as a quality utilityman due to a .78 contact rate and the rather drastic erosion of his power skill. Hubbard's G-F ratio, holding at 1.05 as recently as 1998, increased to 1.29 in 1999, 1.50 in 2000, 2.00 in 2001, and a gaudy 3.09 in 2002. Even though his patience, speed, and defensive flexibility give him decent worth on a major league bench, most teams like their reserves to possess either a modicum of power or fantastic defensive skills. A couple dozen players in the upper minors possess relatively similar skills to Hubbard, and his age makes another extended look in the majors rather unlikely. He's roster filler at best without a serious rebound in his G-F numbers.
I was quite surprised to discover that Cairo, ostensibly a utility infielder, only qualifies in the outfield for 2003 thanks to playing eight more games in the outfield than at second base. Unfortunately, since almost every facet of Cairo's skills indicates a general decline over the past two years, he's useless for fantasy owners in the outfield. His value could return if St. Louis lets him steal on a regular basis, but his current job should limit his role to that of roster filler.
We haven't seen him display much speed since AA, and Bocachica's consistently terrible plate discipline gives him little immediate upside. The only intriguing parts of his skill set are that he can perform adequately against right-handers and a career-high .85 G-F, suggesting we may see more power development. His low BA will keep him as roster filler for now, but general improvement in his patience could lead to a somewhat rapid rise in value if he improves his plate discipline while continuing to demonstrate more power potential. I'd like to see him spend a few months at AAA to refine his skills, however his lack of options should keep him in the majors for another year before major league clubs tire of his meager production.
Ledee seems likely to inherent any excess playing time in centerfield if Marlon Byrd struggles, however I wouldn't be surprised if Philly rented a starting centerfielder for a potential playoff push. Of course, Ledee would be a capable starter against right-handers, but he simply can't hit lefties. His regularly poor contact rates, including a .75 mark in 2002, prevent him from exploiting the patience and power indicated by his 4.04 #P/PA and .86 G-F. Although even a marginal jump of around .05 in his contact rate could give him five-category upside, his failure to sustain any contact growth as he reached his prime reduces our expectations. Don't roster him before Dollar Days.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of St. Louis Prospects for comments on Taguchi.
Lankford couldn't even manage a .700 OPS against right-handers, so I don't think he's likely even to find a platoon role before Spring Training. His walk rate and #P/PA have dropped for two straight years as his G-F shot up from .66 to .80 and now 1.07 over the same time period. The only bright spot here is a contact rate that abruptly jumped from .63 to .70, suggesting that his BA could approach his .270 career BA in 2003. Of course the lack of power or speed upside thanks to his likely limited playing time, and his inability to stay healthy, as evidenced by right hamstring problems that cost him over two months last season, indicate we can't expect more than 250 at-bats from him. A rebound remains possible, but I'll view Lankford as Dollar Days' fodder unless he finds a plum role.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Pittsburgh Prospects for comments on Alvarez.
We've seen reports of Benny's pending move to Japan in each of the last two off-seasons, but he's still in the States as Boston tendered him a contract. He easily could stay with the Red Sox since they lack a right-handed hitter capable of backing up Manny and Nixon in the outfield corners, and Agbayani's historically capable of starting for weeks at a time if necessary. Hopefully his fall from a .977 OPS against lefties in 2001 to a .583 this year is more a product of a limited sample size than an outright skill decrease. Unfortunately two straight years of deterioration in his walk rate, contact rate, and G-F ratio indicate little immediate potential. He looks like roster filler at best right now, although I don't believe he'd hurt you as a Dollar Days' selection if he remains with Boston.
Hermansen hasn't even hinted he's capable of breaking a .70 contact rate, and he'll possess little roto value until he accomplishes that normally reasonable feat. His 4.07 #P/PA and .64 G-F demonstrate that making better contact would jump-start his career. I still can't believe the Cubs' included him with Hundley for Karros and Grudzielanek, especially since Hermansen's power upside ranked with any outfielder under 30 in the Cubs' system. He replaces Marquis Grissom as the Dodgers' fourth outfielder, so while I wouldn't bother drafting Hermansen given his obvious BA problems, he makes a nice reserve or Ultra pick, especially if you're concerned about your team's quantitative numbers.
Apparently Florida became the first team in the majors to realize the value of a switch-hitting 25th man with power who can catch and play all four corner positions. Banks pounded out very impressive numbers at AAA Calgary, including a .310/.410/.540 in 439 at-bats, along with 19 HR, 89 RBI, 90 R, 10/15 SB%, and 73:77 BB:K. He's an excellent selection as a $1 utilityman in any league with 1 game in-season position qualification since he'll provide good value once you shift him to catcher.
Bergeron's descent into roto irrelevance stems from his continually worsening contact problems as he fell to an awful .64 mark in 2002. He experienced a decent rebound at AAA Ottawa where he hit .291/.364/.350, but a 39:65 BB:K in 340 at-bats doesn't indicate much overall promise. Montreal never gave him the necessary time to adjust to AAA before promoting him to the majors, and his .83 contact rate at AA San Antonio back in 1998 suggested he might encounter future difficulties. Fortunately Bergeron only turned 25 in November, so he's still rather young and should rebound over the next couple of years. However I don't believe he'll see much time in the majors in the near future, so don't even select him in reserve rounds at the moment unless you play in an extremely deep lifetime league.
Fragility remains Mateo's biggest obstacle to fulfilling his promise as he's spent part of each of the last five seasons on the DL for a variety of ailments. Of course he also never really displayed good plate discipline at any level of the minors aside from Rookie-ball, so the extent of his upside remains very much in doubt. While we've seen slight improvements in his patience and power over the past couple of years, his weak contact rates and diminished speed skills limit his immediate potential to the power categories. Cincinnati lacks the room to start him at the moment, so if you're interested in taking a flyer on Mateo, select him in a reserve round and then wait until the Reds' normal rash of injuries opens some playing time.
Jose's averaged a little under seven at-bats a year in each of the last seven seasons, so the odds of him returning to rotisserie prominence are extremely remote. There's no reason to consider him for your team at this time.
Reported attitude problems have kept him from more than fleeting appearances in the majors during his 12-year career, and despite prodigious power displays in the minors, I'm uncertain if he'll see many more chances above AAA. A .268/.350/.527 pounding of the International League in 410 at-bats for AAA Indianapolis only earned him 32 at-bats for Milwaukee, and they released him despite a .469 SLG in the majors. If given regular playing time, Alcantara would post a respectable BA along with an easy 20 homers and likely 80 or more RBI, however nothing in his career suggests he'll receive the necessary opportunity. Feel free to employ him as roster filler whenever available, but you can't count on much overall production from him.
After spending the 2001 season in Japan, Perez returned to the U.S. and joined the Cardinals as a right-handed pinch-hitter and backup at the four corners. A batting average at the Mendoza Line negated a few bucks of value in the power categories, and persistent contact difficulties don't give much hope that he'll fix this problem. You'll need a team of high batting averages to absorb the likely BA hit incurred by using Perez as more than an injury replacement.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Montreal Prospects for comments on Cepicky.
Despite marginal offensive skills and continued defensive aptitude, Lewis retired rather than accept a trade to Pittsburgh at the July deadline. Lewis isn't as old as many players who've abandoned retirement, however I'll be surprised if he returns at this point.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for comments on Ruan.
Crespo's capable of playing everywhere except first and catcher, so I really like Boston's acquisition of him for a very young prospect in the low minors. He posted a .258/.363/.407 line in 322 AAA at-bats this year, along with 21 steals in 28 attempts and a 50:78 BB:K. Although his unimpressive contact rate indicates he doesn't deserve a starting job in the near future, his combination of plate discipline, speed, and defensive flexibility makes him a welcome asset to the Red Sox's roster. I don't believe he'll hurt you for a buck or two thanks to his SB upside, although you'll probably want to wait until he qualifies at an infield position before rostering him unless you can stash him on a reserve list.
Colorado's handling of Petrick over the last three years ranks with the dumbest organizational moves regarding any prospect in recent memory. He doesn't possess the offensive upside any team wants to see in the outfield, so their best move, as we suggested a year ago, is to stick him at third base even if he objects to the move. The Rockies have given no indication that they're willing to trade him, so he's probably stuck as their 25th man for another year since he's out of options. Considering he only qualifies in the outfield right now, I wouldn't bother selecting him in any but the deepest of leagues.
As his skills in AAA have deteriorated for two straight years, even the development of some heretofore-undisplayed power doesn't make him a decent roto pick. I don't see any indication that Christensen's quantitative upside compensates for the risk of BA damage. There's no obvious reason you can't use him as roster filler when he's in the majors, but he's not someone who I expect to emerge as a regular benchwarmer in the majors within the next couple of years.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of San Francisco Prospects for comments on Torcato.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cincinnati Prospects for comments on Pena.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Philadelphia Prospects for comments on Byrd.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Langerhans.
Dunston's World Series heroics aside, his atrocious plate discipline dramatically limits his value. I suspect we'll see him return for a third tour in Chicago since Dusty's managed him in the majority of his last seven seasons, however even leaving PacBell doesn't give him any value. There's obviously no upside here due to his age, and you should even endeavor to avoid using him as roster filler due to his weak BA.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Philadelphia Prospects for comments on Valent.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for comments on Allen.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Anaheim Prospects for comments on Wesson.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for comments on Chen.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Pittsburgh Prospects for comments on Davis.
Instead of giving him an extended chance at a regular role by dealing him to a team needing a starting outfielder, Chicago sent Brown to Japan for 2003, thereby wasting one of the better outfield prospects developed by the team over the last few years. The Cubs never game him the opportunity to establish himself as more than a backup, so his poor performance out of an uncomfortable reserve role wasn't a complete surprise. We expected a solid season from him due to the likelihood of a Moises Alou spending an extended stint on the DL, but Alou missed relatively little time, thereby insuring Brown remained on the bench for all but one at-bat in most games. Hopefully a strong season in Japan will place him on the radar of a more enlightened franchise.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Chicago (N) Prospects for comments on Encarnacion.
We've never even seen a .260 BA from Collier in six seasons in the majors, so his .316/.394/.498 line in 307 at-bats at AAA Ottawa doesn't overly impress me. However he's now approached a .500 SLG in two straight minor league seasons, suggesting he'll sustain this power development. I'd like to see a reduction in his strikeouts before recommending him as more than roster filler, but his combination of patience and power indicates he'll reach Positive Draft Value within the next few years.
The Padres Rule 5 pick in 2000, DeHaan's spent the last two seasons in San Diego's minors developing his five-tool talent. Unfortunately he hasn't displayed much patience above AA, so he only posted a .283/.340/.430 line at AAA Portland with 31 2B, 13 3B, 2 HR, 39 RBI, 64 R, 23/32 SB%, and 31:96 BB:K. He'll return for a second full season of AAA in 2003 since he has one option left, and I wouldn't be surprised if he challenges for a starting outfield job in another year. While he's more likely to emerge as the Padres' fourth outfielder, I see a lot of interesting upside here, so you might consider selecting him in a reserve round in deeper leagues.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Florida Prospects for comments on Nunez.
Clark didn't even reach 200 at-bats this year as he spent two different stints on the disabled list at AAA Louisville. He underwent laser eye surgery a little before the All-Star break while he was on the DL with a hamstring injury, and his return to the DL at the end of August was due to blurred vision. The Courier-Journal of Louisville reported that he "experienced complications from the procedure", and he was experimenting with new contacts when he was dealt to the Mets. As Clark also had a cyst removed from his head this season, we suspect his health problems caused his surprisingly weak plate discipline, so hopefully he'll rebound in 2003 with better health. We can't consider him as more than roster filler at the moment, but his historical stats indicate significant major league potential if he can return to his pre-2002 form.
Little's never had an extended chance to establish himself as a competent reserve outfielder, however his performance at every level indicates he's capable of contributing to a winning major league team. He possesses good patience, solid power, and decent speed, so while his inability to maintain a roster spot limits his upside, feel free to use him as roster filler whenever necessary.
Rodriguez's trade from the Cubs to Florida in 2000 essentially ended his full-time starting career; he's only received 91 at-bats in professional baseball over the last two years. His eroding contact rate and declining power potential leave him with little possibility of regaining much value, so there's no reason to consider him for your roster.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Colorado Prospects for comments on Cust.
His skills in his 23rd major league season still resemble his marks from two decades ago, and Raines easily could maintain his value in a reserve role for a couple more years. Unfortunately a drop in his contact rate from .90 to .79 almost cut his batting average in half, so he wasn't able to post positive value in his curtain call. Raines leaves the game as one of the most unique players of the last twenty years, and his overall performance merits Hall of Fame induction when he gains eligibility.
Milwaukee kept their Rule 5 pick in the majors for only 58 terrible at-bats in which he struggled to a .155/.222/.276 performance. His formerly excellent plate discipline has eroded over the last few years, and I don't see value in keeping him in the majors. Avoid Christensen until further notice.
Murray still owns decent patience, power potential, and excellent speed skills, however his BA seems stuck at a level that renders the rest of his contribution fairly worthless. There's sufficient upside here where I expect he'll deserve a roster spot sometime in the next couple years, but between an unimpressive AAA performance and these poor major league numbers, don't use Murray as anything more than roster filler for the moment.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Milwaukee Prospects for comments on Rushford.
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tim@rotohelp.com. |
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