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December 30th 2002 |
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by Tim Polko
On the Seventh Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
We don't understand the true greatness of Vlad's fantasy contribution until we realize that if he had stolen only 10 bases, one more than Bonds, he still would have finished above Bonds in our rankings. The additional 40 steals made Vlad one of the best bargains in the game as he earned around a 33% profit for his owners in experts leagues, and I suspect many of you also benefited from his SB largesse. He increased his OPS from .959 before the All-Star game to 1.072 after the break, but his continued skill improvements are truly stunning. Guerrero set career-best marks of a 1.20 BB:K, .14 walk rate, 3.22 #P/PA, and 1.13 G-F, and both his .89 contact rate and 67% SB success rate were only slightly behind his career-highs. These trends all suggest that he could peak in every category in 2003, posting a .350/45/150/40/110 season that would propel him to $60. As I don't expect the Expos to trade him regardless of their record and he's entering his walk year, Vlad seems like an easy pick as the best superstar to own in 2003 fantasy leagues.
Bonds completed the best two-season offensive performance in major league history while finishing, along with Vlad, as the only two NL position players above $35. While he obviously displayed less power as his G-F ratio rose by 16% to .65 and his 3.54 #P/PA matched his career low, he's still either peaking or near peak in most batting categories. The Giants' acquisitions of Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo should increase Bonds' RBI opportunities by a significant amount, and I believe the exchange of Jeff Kent for two high-OBP infielders will increase run scoring by the entire lineup. Bonds seems a safe bet anywhere into the mid-$30s, and I don't think you'll see a noticeable loss unless you exceed $40.
The Phillies won't deserve to finish out of the cellar if they bat Abreu 5th. While I agree with Abreu that he shouldn't lead off given his power upside, his overall skill set and a .415 OBP make him an ideal #2 hitter behind Jimmy Rollins and in front of Burrell, Thome, and Lieberthal. His SB% has decreased a little over the last two years as he successfully endeavored to reach 30 steals in each season, but he remains a great SB asset for fantasy teams. Most of his excellent skills, including a .18 walk rate, 4.27 #P/PA, and a 1.26 G-F, have remained very steady over the past three years, and his batting average returned above .300 as his contact rate bounced back to .80 after a season at .77. Although I see nothing indicating a pending breakout other than the general improvement of the Phillies' lineup, and those changes will only boost his runs and RBI, Abreu should remain one of the more consistent performers in the game as he again finishes with a value in the mid-$30s.
Larry overcame a significant power outage to finish as the seventh best NL position player in standard leagues, however he only finished significantly down from his 2001 numbers in homers(12 less) and runs(23 less). Although he suffered from no less thank six separate injuries throughout the season, he still posted exceptional second half numbers, including a .353/.483/.647 with a 61:33 BB:K in 235 at-bats, a nice rebound from a .307/.396/.454 with far less plate discipline before the All-Star game. Perhaps the move to the outfield simply distracted him for a few months, but I see no problem in any of his skills, and while he isn't quite as helpful without 3B qualification, he should challenge for another MVP in 2003.
Walker hasn't exceeded 500 at-bats since 1997, and projecting more than 450 seems foolhardy for someone with his injury history who just turned 36 on December 1st. His actual skills don't appear too impressive, and he'd likely finish around $20 if he left Coors. Of course Colorado plans to keep him another year after the deal with Arizona collapsed, and a jump in his contact rate from .79 to .85 indicates he still possesses the batting skills necessary to post another $30 season. Don't expect him to approach double-digit steals again, but he's a great target for decent power numbers and a significant BA boost.
The most unheralded superstar in the game continues to produce ridiculously impressive numbers, however the failure of Lloyd McClendon to provide #1 and #2 hitters with even average on-base percentages costs Giles at least a couple dozen RBI each year. A rebound from Aramis Ramirez and the addition of Randall Simon to a first base platoon with Kevin Young should improve Giles' run totals, and while we continue to see numerous trade rumors, I believe GM Dave Littlefield realizes that Giles' offensive production is almost irreplaceable. Giles' walk rate jumped to .27 as his G-F dropped from .88 to .58, so I see definite indications that Giles is about to emerge as the next Sammy. Fifty homers in 2003 looks quite reasonable as much of the nation will finally start learning about Pittsburgh's hidden gem.
Houston's offense looks quite scary now that the Astros will surround Berkman with Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent, two of the best offensive players of the last decade. While all Berkman's averages were down from his 2001 marks, he managed mild improvements in nearly all his skills. Lefties held him to a .715 OPS, however the presence of Bagwell and Kent will keep opposing managers from specifically targeting Berkman much of the time. As he turns 27 in February, will enter his third full season in the majors, and should now understand the cause of his second-half slumps, Berkman looks like an excellent MVP candidate, and I don't believe a .325/50/150 season is too unreasonable given his skills and trends.
As Pierre's game is based upon a minimal output of power, his departure from Colorado shouldn't cause a large change in his stats. While his average might continue to drop given a contact rate fall from .95 to .91, his G-F jumped from 2.77 to 3.20 and his SB% increased from .73 to .80. Since Jeff Torborg likes the stolen base more than any other manager in baseball, 100 steals for Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre seems a foregone conclusion, and I don't believe 120 or more between the two of them is unreasonable. Pierre should give you around $20 based on his SB total alone, however I wouldn't exceed $25 since you shouldn't expect more than a minimal contribution from him between the other quantitative categories and his batting average.
Although Green posted one of the best power stretches in memory while he also increased his walk rate from .12 to .16, I see a lot of worrisome skill erosion that suggests a fall. His G-F ratio jumped from 1.27 to a career-worst 1.78, so he seems more likely to finish near his 2000 homer total of 24 than to rebound to his 2001 HR total of 49. He also reverted to his rookie year impatience as his #P/PA dropped from a consistent 3.80 or better to 3.57 in 2001 and then 3.48 this year. I don't see any particular deficiency in any of his splits, however the increased groundball tendency will keep me from exceeding the low $20s in bidding on Green.
The horrendous Cubs' lineup left Sosa with the least RBI he's totaled since 1996, and his 1.12 G-F is his second worst mark in a decade. Of course, his G-F rate hasn't dropped below .90 since 1996, so I'm not too concerned about the power drop, and his RBI totals will rise since the Cubs expect rebounds from most hitters. I don't think Sammy will bounce back to his form of 1998-2001, but a .290/55/120 looks fairly reasonable. Unfortunately I don't see him exceeding $30 of value with those numbers, so limit your bidding as you shouldn't be too desperate for power given the number of rising young power hitters in the NL.
Sheffield disappointed many observers who expected him to win the MVP as the anchor of the Braves' renewed offensive attack. Instead Atlanta's OBP problems at the top of the lineup left him with his lowest RBI total since 1997 as left-handers held him to an .823 OPS. Fortunately he resumed pounding the baseball after the All-Star game, compiling a .359/.460/.571 line, along with a 36:18 BB:K in 217 at-bats. He remains a very disciplined hitter with solid power and speed skills, suggesting he'll return to $30 of value and even could exceed that total by a few bucks.
We thought little of Roberts heading into this season thanks to his awful numbers in 2001. However since he displayed both very good plate discipline and great speed in previous minor league seasons, we should have attributed his 2001 slump to the injury that sidelined him for much of the first half. Although the Dodgers limited him to just 25 at-bats against southpaws, he posted a .400/.531/.600 line in those opportunities, suggesting he's ready for a full-time role now that LA has allowed Marquis Grissom depart. Even if Roberts tired in the second half, his solid overall skills, including a .94 BB:K, .11 walk rate, and .88 contact rate, suggest he can build upon these marks in 2003. Roberts should contribute over four dozen steals and a helpful BA, earning no less than $25, and you should remain willing to spend a few extra bucks if you need speed as he could reach $30.
Floyd displayed markedly less power potential once he started changing teams, however his patience at the plate actually improved despite the double change of address. Now Shea Stadium won't provide him any statistical boost, however he found a relatively similar environment to what he knew in Florida, so I see no reason for his stats to change based on his stadium situation. I'd like to see Floyd hitting 3rd for the Mets, lodged between Alomar and Piazza, both among the top few men to ever play their respective positions, and Floyd's combination of power, speed, and plate discipline could key a lineup-wide resurgence for New York. He's now remained healthy for two consecutive seasons, so I'm no longer concerned about the health problems that seemed chronic prior to 2001. Floyd looks like a good gamble up to the mid-$20s, although drop out if any Mets' fans in the room push the bidding to unreasonable levels.
Finley's reportedly extreme dedication to his workouts paid off handsomely with this convincing rebound season, however I see little concrete support for the improvement aside from a walk rate jump from .09 to .13. The main shock in his performance is that his OPS against lefties jumped from .651 in 2001 to a .947 this season, a more significant and impressive jump that a move from a .797 OPS against right-handers to an .847 in 2002. Unfortunately, given his age and lack of positive trends in his skills, I'll be very surprised if he finishes above $20 in 2003. Make sure to check his platoon splits before you either deal or acquire him during the season as his OPS against lefties seems like a good general indicator as to whether he'll reach $15 or $25 of value.
He owns one of the best lineup slots in baseball now that the Cardinals' acquisition of a new third baseman leaves Edmonds hitting between Pujols and Rolen. The stabilized lineup should enable Edmonds to regain the 27 RBI he lost in 2002, and relative consistency in all his skills suggests he's almost guaranteed to provide a .300/30/110/5/100 season. My only concern remains his persistent injury problems, so you shouldn't bid above the mid-$20s, especially since I don't envision a notable power breakout.
Arizona's hopes of a repeat essentially ended when Gonzalez separated his shoulder on September 23rd. Only Finley and Spivey qualify as above-average offensive players in their lineup, leaving them relatively bereft of run-scoring capabilities in 2003. Even the return of Danny Bautista and pending promotion of Lyle Overbay won't provide enough help for a serious playoff run unless the 35-year-old Gonzalez posts a nice rebound season. Fortunately for Diamondbacks' fans, Gonzo posted career-best marks of a .19 walk rate and 3.93 #P/PA, and the minor erosion of his power skills won't really matter if his OBP stays above .400. He seems relatively capable of compiling another seasons at $25 or more in draft value.
Encarnacion essentially replaces Preston Wilson in the Marlins' offense, and his superior numbers to Wilson in 2002 indicate he won't struggle to fill the role. Both his walk and contact rates increased by a couple of points, and he sustained the power growth he displayed in 2001 when his G-F ratio dropped from 1.67 to 1.11. The other key to Encarnacion's roto potential is that he stole 33 bases in 1999 with Detroit, and given Jeff Torborg's love of the steal, I wouldn't be surprised if he approached 40 SB. While I'm concerned about his poor .644 OPS against left-handers, I can't see his value falling below $20, and he looks capable of continued improvement.
Burrell's increased his homers from 18 to 27 and now 37 over the past three seasons as his G-F has dropped from .97 to .84 and his .76 mark in 2002. Over the same time span, his contact rate has jumped from .66 to .70 and then his current .74 rate. After a drop in 2001, his walk rate recovered to .15 in 2002, and while he crushes lefties, he posted a solid .860 OPS against right-handers. Additionally, Larry Bowa plans to bat Burrell between All-Star left-handed batters Bobby Abreu and Jim Thome, insuring the maximization of both Burrell's runs and RBI. Given all these factors, and especially his excellent skill trends, Burrell seems poised for another step forward. A .300/50/150 season wouldn't shock me, however a .290/45/130 year looks more realistic. Let him go for less than $30 at your peril.
Sanchez possesses excellent speed but his weak power and limited plate discipline have kept him out of the majors until recently. Milwaukee's general lack of superior options should keep him starting full-time for another season, and he's quite capable of stealing 50 or more bases as long as he stays healthy and in the lineup. You can't expect even a respectable contribution from him in any other category, but he'll earn around $20 based solely on his prodigious SB output.
Kotsay's one of the more balanced fantasy players as he earned about a third of his value from his BA and around a sixth from each of the other categories. He finished with the fifth most hits of any NL outfielder, however there's little evidence he's developing into a great player. His contact rate has dropped from .91 to .85 over the past three seasons, and while his G-F is down to 1.11 from 1.52 over the same period, his lack of improving plate patience limits his BA upside. A 55% SB success rate also limits his speed upside, so while he should break 20 homers in 2003, I don't expect improvement in any other category. I wouldn't exceed the high-teens in bidding on him, and you may want to stop even earlier given he doesn't provide much help in any specific categories.
Jones is growing into an intriguing sleeper given his skill trends and age; he's spent over six years in the majors and won't turn 26 until next April! His .15 walk rate was the best mark of his career, and his 3.81 #P/PA and 1.06 G-F are right next to his career-highs. The concern in his skills is a contact rate that's dropped from .85 to .76 over the last three years, however when coupled with his developing patience and power, he'll hit .300 with 45 homers if he returns to a .85. Bidding above $25 seems unreasonable since there's no obvious pending breakout here, but if he's somehow available in the low $20s, you should be very happy to roster him.
As Colorado has significant years and money committed to Preston Wilson and Larry Walker, the Rockies have left Gabe Kapler, Jack Cust, Ben Petrick, and Payton to fight for playing time at only one position. Projecting Payton's Coors' numbers over 400 at-bats gives us a rough idea of his upside: .335/19/66/7/85, or about $23 of value. I don't see a ceiling much above those numbers given his age, injury history, stagnant skill trends, and the significant competition he faces for playing time. Payton looks very overrated to me at the moment, and I'd much rather gamble on a rebound by Kapler at somewhere around half the price I expect you'll need to pay to roster Payton. Anything higher than the mid-teens on him is an unnecessarily risky play.
We saw excellent arguments for both Kearns and Brad Wilkerson for Rookie of the Year, and both outfielders should reach higher ceilings than actual winner Jason Jennings. Kearns simply pasted the ball both at AA Chattanooga and in Cincinnati before a strained left hamstring in late August forced him out for the season. While his numbers, including a .315/.407/.500 line, look excellent, and his .15 walk rate, 4.02 #P/PA, and 1.37 G-F are very good, they pale next to Dunn's marks from a year ago. The one difference is that Kearns' .78 contact rate is significantly better than the .69 mark Dunn's averaged since reaching the majors. I'm still quite concerned that Kearns essentially skipped both A+ and AAA, but he should maintain these stats as long as his contact rate doesn't slip. A $20 bid looks quite reasonable, and you might even find a nice profit on bids up into the mid-$20s. My main worry is that he's still very young, potentially overhyped, and seems likely to go for significantly more than his 2003 value in spring drafts.
Sanders will be lucky to find a starting job in 2003 as few teams target 35-year-old corner outfielders with a .779 OPS. Of course, PacBell depressed his stats, and he basically maintained or improved all his skills. Assuming his agent lands him a full-time gig on some team, you should remember that Sanders had never reached 500 at-bats before this season. His injury risk makes him a gamble even considering his decent patience and power/speed upside. I don't think he'd hurt you for a low double-digit bid, but any offering into the teens leaves you with little hope of seeing any profit.
Millar has posted almost identical stats and skills over the last two seasons, so there's no reason for us to expect any notable divergence from these fantasy numbers in 2003. You might see a slight quantitative bump if he's dealt to a lineup more conducive to providing opportunities for runs and RBI, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't finish with a value in the teens. Hold your bids to the low teens to virtually guarantee a small profit.
Hollandsworth performed decently for Texas when healthy, however he showed no skill improvement even when playing for Colorado. His contact rate falls below .80 in any extended playing time, subsequently making his BA more a product of fleeting hot streaks than any supported hitting development. Considering his unimpressive statistical history and relative lack of upside, you shouldn't exceed single-digit bidding on Hollandsworth even if he lands a starting job somewhere like Tampa.
Owens looks poised to replace Orlando Palmeiro as Anaheim's fourth outfielder, a move that should cause his roto value to crater due to the correlative problem of reduced playing time and less SB opportunities now that he's no longer playing for Jeff Torborg. A career-best .91 contact rate suggests he's capable of a .300 season at some point, but I just can't see him finding the playing time necessary to reach double-digit value. Of course, he's still a great fifth outfielder to target due to his BA/SB upside.
While Timo earned a starting job in 2002 due to his consistently solid performance, the Cliff Floyd signing sends Timo back to the bench unless the Mets can deal Cedeno or Burnitz. Timo's minor league numbers in each of the last three seasons hinted at these skills, but he's also not performing at a level much higher than what a team expects from a fourth outfielder. A .394 OPS against lefties indicates he needs a platoon partner, so hopefully the Mets will find a way to deal Burnitz for a right-handed outfielder if they'd like Timo to play regularly. While he's hinted at a power surge, all of Timo's value is based upon his contact rate, and he doesn't possess sufficient supplementary skills to entice me to buy him without decent patience at the plate. I don't expect to see a profit here on any bid above the high single digits.
Jordan displayed the best patience of his career, posting a 3.66 #P/PA, but I don't see a significant change in his other skills. His reduced power numbers appear due to the back problems that troubled him for much of the year, and while a 25/100 season seems like a stretch given his age and injury history, he should have no problem in posting another .290/20/80 year. I don't see any real upside here, so you probably shouldn't exceed $15, although a low double-digit bid seems extremely likely to earn a profit.
While Cedeno still owns great speed as indicated by his 25 steals in 29 attempts, he simply lacked the opportunity due to a .318 OBP, his worse mark since 1998 in Los Angeles. He struggled against all pitchers, so a platoon with Timo Perez wouldn't make much sense. The best course of action for the Mets probably involves leading off with Cedeno on a daily basis for the first month or two of the year in the hope that he'll rediscover his lost on-base skills. You can safely bid to $20 since he still owns $30+ upside thanks to his SB upside, however don't target him unless you're willing to make that expenditure on a player who adds little to a team other than reasonable-to-excessive steal totals.
His trade to Colorado makes him one of the more intriguing roto players in the game for 2003. As Wilson has reached at least 23 homers and 20 steals in each of the last three seasons, we'd normally expect dramatic growth due to Coors. However, while the likely BA boost should drive his value into the mid-$20s, we won't see anything even close to a $40 season. After a jump from .69 to .77, his contact rate fell back to .73, and while he displayed fairly good patience at the plate this year, his G-F bounced from a .99 in 2001 to a career-worst 1.40 in 2002. As his speed skills are also declining, there's no reason to bid excessively on Wilson since the buzz surrounding his move to the Rockies will likely push bidding above logical limits.
Alou's across-the-board decline is particularly worrisome given his age and injury history, and I'm not sure if we'll see a great rebound since we can't comfortably project more than 500 at-bats for him. I'm concerned about his .720 OPS against right-handers, which basically indicates a surprising lack of power, and I also see some deterioration in his plate discipline. Anything above a .290/20/80 season would be a nice bonus, but those marks represent the logical rebound in consideration of his inconsistent career. Stop bidding in the teens, and while you might miss a great bargain if he completely rebounds, you're more likely to avoid a small loss.
Patterson looked poised to leap into superstardom after 90 April at-bats in which he posted a .333/.400/.489 on the strength of a 10:14 BB:K; he even stole 7 bases in his only 7 attempts. I wish I knew whose inane advice caused him to regain his aggressiveness, but Corey only walked 9 more times all year as his averages plummeted to .253/.284/.392, and his lack of progress played a central role in the unfair dismissal of hitting coach Jeff Pentland. Chicago let Patterson play full-time, and management now appears convinced he's a platoon player after he only managed a .477 OPS against lefties in his first full season in the majors. Other than a meager rise in his contact rate, Patterson saw all his skills slip from the marks he established in the two months he spent in Chicago in 2001, and most of them dropped significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if he wound up in the minors after a slow start in 2003, and while he's likely to finish with a value somewhere in the teens thanks to his power and speed upside, he doesn't currently possess the foundation necessary for sustainable long-term growth.
Little Sarge finally developed into a solid major leaguer in his ninth professional season after joining his fifth different franchise. While a .275/.354/.426 isn't fabulous, he should remain starting in center for Baltimore for most of 2003, and these marks fall nicely in between his numbers at AA and AAA during the 1999-2000 seasons. Matthews only managed a .239/.303/.349 line against left-handers, so one of Baltimore's young right-handed outfielders seems likely to begin platooning with Matthews in the near future. We're not going to see much power growth from someone with a 1.96 G-F, however both his speed and batting average look nicely supported, so feel free to bid him to the high single digits; the general uncertainty in Baltimore prevents a higher bid.
Grissom's amazing rebirth into a lefty masher appears even more remarkable when considering his unimpressive OPS platoon splits over the previous three seasons. An .852/.687, .751/.609, and .770/.605 all indicate he deserved to play against left-handers, but none of these splits suggests a pending .971/.742 while he played in the worst hitters' park in the majors. A boosted contact rate accounts for the BA rise, but he doesn't seem capable of maintaining either this new average or his current output, especially as he's only moving to the second-worst hitters' park in the majors. I can't envision many situations where you should bid above single-digits for Grissom, and I wouldn't even stray close to $10 unless I was desperate for the fifteen homers.
His bizarre .309 BA accounted for around half of this value, and the only real skill improvement here was a drop down to an easy career-low 1.09 G-F, indicating that some of his 27 doubles should translate into homers in the near future. I don't expect McCracken to find more than 300 at-bats too often, however due to his five-category upside, he's a perfectly reasonable target for a couple bucks or as roster filler when he's in the majors. McCracken should reach double-digit value at least one more time in his career, so strongly consider him in leagues with deep reserve rosters.
We supported him all season due to his solid skills, so I see no reason not to expect a surge to $20 if Houston deals him to a team that will start him every day. I can't find any obvious statistical basis for his failure to hit for power, so only his terrible .204/.346/.259 performance against left-handers suggests he doesn't deserve another 450 at-bats. Ward still possesses 30+ homer upside, and if his owner is disappointed with Ward's horribly frustrating 2002 season and the persistent trade rumors, I'd like to acquire him now while is value is low. Unless we hear a logical explanation for his struggles last season before 2003 begins, I'll remain quite confident in projecting him to reach no less than 20 homers and 80 RBI.
In the LABR draft, if anyone had ignored the outfield to spend $119 on the best infield(Helton, Castillo, Renteria, and Chipper, who qualified at 3B from 2002, earned slightly more than Pujols, but cost $4 more in the draft), that owner would have earned a $6 profit. However spending $139 on four outfielders(Vlad, Bonds, Abreu, and Larry Walker) would have netted a $21 profit as all four outfielders earned at least a $2 profit. As the majority of top players are outfielders who normally go for bargain prices, you have no reason to allocate extra funds to infielders in the name of position scarcity.
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