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December 26th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
On the Third Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
Quinn should return to the starting lineup if he's finally healthy in Spring Training, however he'll compete for playing time in left, right, and at DH with Raul Ibanez, Michael Tucker, Ken Harvey, and Dee Brown. With the first two starting, the latter two could steal most of his at-bats. He played less than a month in 2002 due to two fluke injuries: he cracked a rib while playing kung fu with his brother, and then he slipped off a curb wrong in June, spraining his hamstring and aggravating an ankle sprain suffered during a game. As he's not a patient hitter at all and hasn't demonstrated significant power potential at any point in the majors, the only reason Kansas City should give him much time in the field is to increase his trade value. Quinn's a definite gamble whose quantitative upside isn't worth the probable BA hit. Paying more than a few bucks for him involves a level of risk I'd prefer to avoid.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (A) Prospects for comments on Rivera.
Tyner's terrible numbers merited his departure from Tampa Bay, and he isn't likely to find another starting job for quite some time given his almost complete lack of power. Despite consistently good minor league numbers, he's displayed almost no patience in the majors, which certainly limits both his current value and overall upside. In 351 at-bats at AAA Durham following his demotion, Tyner hit .291/.362/.348 with 0 HR, 27 RBI, 59 R, 20/27 SB%, and 34:27 BB:K. He obviously still possesses both great speed and excellent plate discipline, but he needs both a better walk rate and a .300 BA before I expect him to receive another extended look in the majors. I don't envision selecting him before Dollar Days if he even breaks camp with the team, since despite his SB potential, his awful BA dramatically reduces his roto value.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Oakland Prospects for comments on Ludwick.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Minnesota Prospects for comments on Restovich.
Ramirez has never demonstrated good power or acceptable plate discipline at any level, and his former prospect status seems entirely due to his great speed. He posted a meager .273/.299/.410 in 139 at-bats at AAA Salt Lake this year, and his 4:31 BB:K nicely illustrates his trouble. I can't envision him earning notable roto value at any point in the foreseeable future.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for comments on Werth.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Broussard.
Rivera's problem, beyond his sticky fingers, remains a significant lack of plate discipline, and these issues obscure his decent power, speed, and defense. He split much of the year between AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma, compiled a 91/303 for 300/.85/.584 with 17 HR, 66 RBI, 57 R, 6/9 SB%, and 38:69 BB:K. His major league performance was both obviously and significantly worse, however he managed both a .11 walk rate and .87 G-F, so he still possesses some talent. Nonetheless, without a contact rate much above .70, he'll never develop into a quality player. There's sufficient upside here to merit a minimum bid from some team, but Rivera is not someone to target in any draft.
After wasting a year of his development time as a Rule 5 pick in 2000, Toronto somehow still seems convinced that Wise is good player. Realistically, he's shown little improvement despite spending much of the last three seasons at AA Tennessee. This year at AA, Wise posted a .297/.350/.471 with 10 HR, 49 RBI, 59 R, 15/23 SB%, and 29:49 BB:K. Fortunately he only committed 4 errors in 80 games, so I can see why they value him defensively. However Wise doesn't even appear ready for AAA in 2003, and I don't see him earning any roto value if he spends much time in the majors next season.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Oakland Prospects for comments on Grabowski.
Cleveland non-tendered Magruder, but they immediately re-signed him to a minor league deal. Unfortunately he doesn't seem overly likely to win a job in camp given the state of Cleveland's 40-man roster and the superior credentials of guys like Jody Gerut, who he'll face in competition for any open bench spots. As he's never experienced extended AAA success, I'd like to see Magruder spend a couple months starting at Buffalo after this year's .267/.364/.419 in 191 at-bats, along with a 26:34 BB:K. Of course, Magruder also has demonstrated promising plate discipline throughout his five-year professional career, but his 2002 major league skill marks, including a .06 walk rate, .79 contact rate, and 3.55 #P/PA, suggest he's not quite ready for a regular role in Cleveland's outfield. Although I can't see drafting him at this time, you should consider him as a reserve pick in very deep leagues.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Chicago (A) Prospects for comments on Borchard.
Kansas City basically wasted a year of potential major league experience for Brown on Chuck Knoblauch and Michael Tucker, and since he failed to improve his plate discipline, we still don't know if he's ready to start on a regular basis. Brown posted a .275/.344/.441 in 458 AAA at-bats at Omaha, along with 17 HR, 75 RBI, 66 R, 10/14 SB%, and 44:111 BB:K. While we're seeing some minor growth in his patience, he displayed markedly less power in 2002 than in his last extended period at AAA in 2000, and I don't expect any notable breakout in his near future. Brown's now out of options, so he'll probably see about 300 at-bats in a part-time, platoon role. Unless you're desperate for power potential, I wouldn't bother gambling on Brown in 2003.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (A) Prospects for comments on Thames.
Although Jackson's a capable AAA player, nothing in his statistical history indicates he currently deserves even a major league bench job. He didn't post decent numbers at AAA Toledo, where he instead stumbled to a meager .271/.297/.417, with only 8 HR, 50 RBI, 40 R, 5/8 SB%, and an awful 13:84 BB:K. I can't imagine him meriting a spot in any roto league in 2003.
Berger posted a .308/.383/.648 line at AA Wichita in 2001, earning his first look at AAA this year. He again compiled fairly impressive numbers in 261 at-bats at Omaha, including a .291/.363/.510 with 13 HR, 47 RBI, 34 R, 11/13 SB%, and 25:43 BB:K. However his .84 contact rate suggests he'd benefit from a full season at AAA before any team awards him extended major league duty. In his 51 games in the majors in 2002, he demonstrated notable potential, including a 4.01 #P/PA and a .83 G-F, so he should emerge as a $10+ player no later than 2005. Berger deserves a starting job before someone like Mark Quinn, but I unfortunately don't envision him finding much playing time in 2003. For now, look to pick him up as a mid-season free agent when some team needs an injury replacement for a power-hitting outfielder.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Seattle Prospects for comments on Podsednik.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Baltimore Prospects for comments on Garcia.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Texas Prospects for comments on Hart.
Robb Quinlan and DaVanon seem likely to occupy the reserve outfield spots of departed free agents Orlando Palmeiro and Alex Ochoa. DaVanon has an edge on Quinlan and fellow 40-man roster minor league outfielders Barry Wesson and Nathan Haynes since he switch-hits, owns a great arm, can play every outfield position, possesses decent power, and would have spent this year in the majors if he had been healthy. Back problems cost him the last four months of the season, but he annihilated AAA pitching for a hundred at-bats before his injury for a .330/.429/.600. He's more prepared than Quinlan for the majors since he's already posted a .81 G-F in 138 at-bats for Anaheim, and assuming DaVanon breaks camp with the Angels, you can comfortably bid a couple bucks on him if you need a 5th outfielder.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on McDonald.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on Gomez.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Torres.
Baltimore rushed Bigbie up the ladder after selecting him with the 21st overall pick in the 1999 draft, so he's never seen more than 348 at-bats at any level in any season of his four-year career. His .302 BA at AAA Rochester this year strikes me as a complete fluke, given his .10 walk rate and .77 contact rate. However, the good news is that he's held a walk rate around 10% at every stop, regardless of level, and his stats seem to be hinting at respectable power/speed upside. Bigbie desperately needs more minor league time, but Baltimore will need to keep him in the majors in 2004 since they'll use his last option next season. Consider selecting him near the end of the reserve rounds, since if he posts decent numbers in his second year at AAA, he's almost assured of a starting job the following season.
Anderson's trying to return in 2003 after signing a minor league deal with San Diego, but he'll need to improve upon his career-worst .71 contact rate to regain any value. Fortunately Anderson remains an extremely patient batter who also possesses solid power and speed. If his contact rate is above .75 in Spring Training and he breaks camp with the team, Anderson might emerge as a fairly good sleeper, especially since you'll likely face little competition to draft him.
Aven established himself as a decent bench player with Florida in 1999. He owns decent power, usually posts good plate discipline marks, and can maintain a decent BA, however Aven lacks the upside in any one category to merit an extended major league career as a reserve. Feel free to use him as roster filler when he's in the majors, but don't expect him to ever again exceed $5 in value.
While Dunwoody may own decent defense and speed, his terrible plate discipline should keep him from ever providing much production for any team. His age-27 "peak" included a .267/.298/.433 line in 363 at-bats at AAA Buffalo, and there's no indication of pending development from any of his skills. He lacks the strength to take advantage of his respectable G-F ratio, leaving me without any reason to roster him in the near future.
Allen's posted empty batting averages throughout his career as a jump from AA New Britain to starting in right field for Minnesota in 1999 apparently permanently stunted his development. He showed a little power potential at AAA in 2002, however there's still little in his skills that suggests he should spend much time in the majors next season. Hopefully his agent will find him a full-time AAA starting job in 2003 since he's still relatively young, but I see neither the patience nor quantitative upside to warrant expecting any helpful roto contribution from him in the near future.
Although Sadler's demonstrated little plate discipline or power while in the majors, his AAA numbers suggest some roto potential due to consistently decent walk rates and SB production. Teams will continue to use him sporadically in the majors as a utilityman, but his likely poor BA renders him useless to fantasy owners.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Minnesota Prospects for comments on Ryan.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Seattle Prospects for comments on Snelling.
Colangelo's perpetual injury problems have kept him from developing any aspect of his offense other than plate discipline. Few outfielders can succeed without any power or speed upside, and unfortunately Colangelo has shown little overall skill since 1999. He doesn't belong on any roto roster at this time.
As he couldn't even manage a single hit in the majors or a .700 OPS at AAA in 2002, the end of Williams' career may have arrived. I can see him bouncing around for another few years due to his solid defense and baserunning capabilities, however his terrible plate discipline means no fantasy owner should risk the BA damage he causes.
Despite posting terrible numbers in 365 major league at-bats and only seeing 35 at-bats at AAA, Matos should make the Orioles in the spring since he's out of options. I like his long-term upside given his decent speed and solid minor league walk rate, however I certainly don't expect him to exceed his .212 career major league batting average. Even rebuilding teams should look elsewhere as Baltimore's outfield should remain very full for the indefinite future.
Monroe's poor performance in 77 at-bats as a bench player obscures his fantastic minor league numbers. He exploded to a .282/.366/.506 upon reaching AA Tulsa in 2000, and he followed that performance with AAA seasons of .280/.358/.512 and .321/.379/.511 at Oklahoma and Toledo respectively. As he owns career AAA marks of a .11 walk rate and .82 contact rate in 768 at-bats, Monroe appears ready for a starting job in the majors. While the Tigers non-tendered Rob Fick, Eric Munson will start at DH since he's out of options, relegating Bobby Higginson and Dmitri Young to the outfielder corners. Consequently, Monroe unfortunately will have to beat out George Lombard, Andres Torres, Gene Kingsale, and Hiram Bocachica to start in center, and while I think he possesses the necessary talent, I don't expect the Tigers to give him the chance. However, if he makes the team as the starter, Monroe merits a bid of several dollars since his MLEs suggest a potential .290/10/60/10 season.
Aside from three impressive AAA seasons at the end of the '90's, McCarty's displayed little offensive prowess and deserves his AAAA designation. He lacks both the plate discipline and power necessary to contribute in the majors, and after signing with Oakland as a minor league free agent, I don't envision him seeing any time with the Athletics unless they need occasional roster filler due to injuries.
Although Cabrera's posted decent numbers at AAA, including fairly consistent on-base percentages above .380, his .236/.285/.303 career major league line suggests he's not someone to target for your fantasy teams. He owns decent plate discipline and good speed, but this BA downside isn't worth the risk, especially since he'll only qualify for the outfield in 2003 in most leagues.
The combination of a bruised right shoulder and declining skills left Vaughn as the second worst American League fantasy position player and worst non-catcher available to owners. Tampa bizarrely sold Steve Cox to Japan, leaving Vaughn as the everyday DH for the last season of his four-year deal. While he's still a patient hitter with good power, his contact rate fell from .73 to .67, dragging his batting average from poor to completely abhorrent. Even if he bounces back with a contact rate over .70, Vaughn's unlikely to exceed .230, leaving him with only a few dollars of overall value. I wouldn't risk drafting him unless your team is loaded with expensive players who possesses high averages and limited power like Ichiro, Jeter, and Bernie Williams.
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