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December 25th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
On the Second Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
The surprise non-tendering of Cruz by the Blue Jays follows a very disappointing season in which he provided notably less production than in 2001. However he maintained or improved all of his skills, so his strained left hamstring and torn left ankle ligaments seem responsible for most of his reduced value. His walk rate improved from .08 to .11 as his contact rate increased from .76 to .77. Cruz also held his #P/PA at his career-rate of 3.75 while decreasing his G-F ratio for the third straight season, reaching a .96 G-F and his first sub-1.00 since his 1997 debut. Since he even stole 7 bases in 8 attempts, his lower SB total seems entirely attributable to the change in managers and strategies in Toronto combined with his health problems. Cruz seems quite capable of posting a nice rebound season in 2003. Although he slumped a little against righties, a drop of over 200 points of OPS against left-handers depressed his overall performance to a far greater extent, and a healthy left leg should allow him to regain his formerly powerful right-handed swing. Cruz should be a nice sleeper as long as he winds up starting somewhere, and you can comfortably bid him to $20 as long as his new manager likes stolen bases.
Palmeiro posted the best overall numbers of his career in 2002, and the Angels repaid him by letting him leave without even offering him arbitration. He posted career-highs of 4.37 #P/PA and 1.25 G-F, along with a career-best 7 steals, a .11 walk rate, and a .92 contact rate. Palmeiro's capable of playing all three outfield positions, making him the most dependable reserve outfielder on the market. A team like Tampa Bay even would benefit from letting him start in center given Palmeiro's .361 lifetime OBP, and since he almost never exceeds a few bucks in any draft, you're almost guaranteed a small profit if you can acquire Palmeiro for less than $5.
Justice seems equally likely to retire or return for one more season, likely with the Red Sox, as he looks to extend his streak of playing for a Division Champion to an even dozen years. While he needs a platoon partner since lefties held him to a .696 OPS, his .819 mark against right-handers, fueled by his extremely solid skills, suggests he belongs in baseball for another year or two. He compiled a .376 OBP on the strength of a .18 walk rate, .83 contact rate, 4.18 #P/PA, and 1.00 G-F, making him one of the more reliable batters in the game. Justice's declining health, playing time, and overall production limits his roto upside, however he shouldn't hurt you for any price under double-digits if he doesn't retire.
Although he began the year with Seattle, Kingsale accrued nearly all his value while playing for the Padres. His nine steals account for about half this dollar total and aren't a surprise considering he displayed good speed throughout his minor league career. However Kingsale's never displayed good power or plate discipline, so while his .350 OBP looks reasonable, he's unlikely to ever noticeably exceed that number. After months of hyping him as a potential centerfield starter, San Diego wisely dealt Kingsale and managed to steal power-hitting catcher Mike Rivera from Detroit. Now Kingsale's stuck competing with Andres Torres, George Lombard, and a few other youngsters to even break camp with the team, so I don't envision him seeing this much playing time in 2003. I can't imagine seeing a profit if you bid more than a couple bucks on him.
While Cordova's value plummeted after leaving Cleveland, he still managed to improve most of his skills. His 1.15 G-F indicates the best power potential of his career, and he hadn't reached a .10 walk rate since leaving Minnesota after the 1999 season. Cordova's BA dropped 48 points mostly because his contact rate sank from a .80 past his .79 career mark and down to .76. Although he has two years left on his deal, Baltimore's new GM team likely will advise giving more playing time to younger players, and since there's nothing here that indicates a dramatic breakout, I wouldn't exceed single digits when bidding on Cordova.
Texas severely erred by promoting Mench after only 98 AAA at-bats, and while he didn't post bad numbers, a .775 OPS is too low for a corner outfielder on any team. Fortunately he saw 3.96 #P/PA, and a .79 G-F nicely illustrates his power potential, so while he might not post truly impressive numbers for another couple years, Mench won't hurt the Rangers and will benefit from hitting behind ARod, Palmeiro, and JuanGone. I'm concerned about his BA downside, but Mench is a lock for 20+ homers and merits a bid in the low teens for 2003.
Gonzalez still approached $10 despite missing about half the season due to severe problems with his right hand. We don't even know if he'll be healthy for Spring Training, and we saw erosion in most of his skills back towards the levels he displayed while playing for Detroit in 2000. Since he turned 33 in October and has posted unimpressive numbers due to injury in two of the last three years, there's definitely good reason for our growing concern. Fortunately Gonzalez has averaged over 40 homers in each of the 8 seasons where he's reached 500 or more at-bats, so if he appears recovered in the spring, he'll deserve at least a $25 bid, and I expect he'll easily exceed $30 in most leagues.
September surgery to remove a cyst from his right collarbone led to the discovery of an old labrum tear in his shoulder, and the April injury had started to heal abnormally. While the problem should be fixed, Lawton likely will not complete his rehab by the start of Spring Training, and he even might need to spend a couple months of the season on the DL. The torn labrum explains Lawton's terrible batting average since there's no statistical explanation for his poor year. He posted some of the best all-around skills of his career, and while the tear doesn't explain his 8/17 SB%, at least we can anticipate he'll post a BA above his .270 career average when he returns. Lawton remains a potential $20+ player when healthy, and we'll definitely look to draft him for any reasonable salary since we can replace him with a decent reserve outfielder until he returns from the DL, a tactic that essentially increases your draft cap to more than $260.
Tampa advanced Crawford's arbitration and free agency clocks by a couple months thanks to their moronic decision to promote him after only 353 AAA at-bats. While he hit .297 at Durham, his .335 OBP and .456 SLG indicate he needed more development time. His 3.30 #P/PA and 2.00 G-F illustrate both his limited patience and currently negligible power potential, and neither his .03 walk rate nor his .84 contact rate suggest he'll even hold a BA over .250. Only owners desperate for speed or looking to rebuild should target Crawford since I can't see him exceeding a 2003 roto value in the very low double digits, and nothing in his minor league history suggests he'll experience any rapid development. The only thing that separates Crawford from Jason Tyner is better power upside and a superior contact rate.
Lombard finally lost his rookie eligibility after three cups-of-coffee and a 2001 season spent mostly on the DL. Although he's a decently patient hitter with great speed and developing power potential, a .68 contact rate dramatically limits his immediate upside. He exceeded 130 strikeouts in four different minor league seasons, so he's always struggled to make contact. While I expect he'll reach double-digit steals even in a reserve role, I also don't envision him holding a starting job for more than a month or two, suggesting that he doesn't merit a bid above a few bucks.
Magee's playing time has gradually increased in each of his three seasons as the Tigers' primary reserve outfielder, however Detroit now possesses sufficient alternatives that they shouldn't need to keep a 30-year-old with a .667 career OPS on their roster. He's never demonstrated much plate discipline despite decent patience, and his G-F, after dropping to .60 between 1996 and 1999, has risen up to 1.62 in the following three seasons. Only seeing a ridiculous 347 at-bats while posting a very surprising .271 BA allowed Magee to exceed a buck of value, so even if he manages to break camp with some team in the spring, I don't expect him to earn more than a buck or two. Don't consider him as anything other than a mid-season injury replacement.
He suffered one of the biggest fluke injuries of the year when a ball bounced off the outfield wall into his face in early May, fracturing his left orbital bone and costing him a month on the DL. Bradley also missed time with three other injuries in 2002, but hopefully he'll move past this bout of fragility by the start of next season. I don't see any noteworthy skill growth here, however Bradley only turns 25 in April and still has plenty of time to develop into a quality player. While any double-digit bid seems excessive given his current stage of development, Bradley should reach double figures in both homers and steals for the first time in 2003, and hopefully he'll also approach an .800 OPS.
Knoblauch's 19 stolen bases are the only stat that kept him from finishing with negative value, and since no team appears likely to give him sufficient playing time to accumulate that many steals in 2003, he might slip all the way into Dollar Days. His terrible .584 OPS actually surprised us to a great extent since most of skills remained the same, and his contact rate even increased from .86 to .89. A .494 first half OPS accounted for most of his qualitative drop as he posted a .674 OPS in the second half, nearly reaching the .690 OPS he compiled in 2001. Assuming he breaks camp with a team in at least a regular reserve role, Knoblauch looks like a definite sleeper with the potential to return to possessing significant roto value.
Minnesota wisely sent Buchanan to San Diego for shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett after the All-Star game to allow the younger right fielders more playing time. While Buchanan's not a great player, both his minor league history and career major league line of .265/.327/.499 demonstrate his value as a 4th outfielder or even occasional starter. Moving to one of the better pitchers' parks in baseball limits his upside, and we don't envision any pending breakout for Buchanan, but he certainly merits a couple bucks in most leagues.
Oakland's acquisitions of Chris Singleton and Rontrez Johnson push Long over to left field. Hopefully Ken Macha will ignore Long's contract, since even though he struggled against all pitchers this year, he generally performs even worse against lefties. Aside from a mild drop from a 1.33 G-F to a 1.17 this year, Long hasn't improved any area since his 2000 rookie season. Long turns 27 in February, but nothing in his skills suggests a pending breakout. Let another owner go to double-digits on him since I'll be surprised if he returns a profit on any bid above $9.
Greer likely will miss all of 2003 since he needs no less than four separate procedures over the next year. His various injuries have caused his skills to slowly erode for years. Both his speed and power have disappeared over the last decade, so even if he recovers for the 2003 season, I don't envision him posting a helpful contribution in any category besides BA and maybe Runs. Don't exceed a dollar on him even if you're rebuilding.
White couldn't even reach $5 of value despite staying off the DL all season for the first time since 1997. Right-handers held him to a .623 OPS, and we also saw significant skill deterioration. His walk rate dropped from .08 to .05 and his contact rate slipped from .83 to .81. Yankee Stadium's Death Valley reduced his power output even though his G-F ratio only moved from 1.47 to 1.57, and since he's largely untradable and will see his playing time decrease in 2003, there's no expectation for his value to increase. Don't bid more than a few bucks on White unless the Yankees manage to deal him.
Cordero's currently Montreal's de facto starting first baseman, though we certainly expect the Expos to upgrade considering the half-dozen established starters looking for work. He posted a career-high .11 walk rate while displaying good patience and power potential, so I could see him returning to double-digit value in a full-time role. However since he's extremely unlikely to find more than 200 at-bats, you shouldn't consider drafting Cordero until Dollar Days.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Seattle Prospects for comments on Bloomquist.
Conti's demonstrated good patience and speed in the minors, but he currently seems badly suited for a backup role. Most of his skills suggest he might find success if given more playing time, however his .75 contact rate makes him a very risky roto pick. I don't view Conti as anything other than roster filler if he stays on Tampa's bench.
While the White Sox seem convinced Roward can start, I see nothing in his numbers that indicates he's prepared to produce on an everyday basis. He broke two ribs while off-road biking in November, however Chicago believes he'll recover in time to start on Opening Day. Rowand will need a fast start since the White Sox still like Carlos Lee and have Ordonez, Thomas, and Konerko under contract for the next couple years, leaving only centerfield open to top prospect Joe Borchard. Although I like Rowand's power and speed upside, I don't believe he possesses the patience necessary to remain in the lineup on an everyday basis. I don't like the odds for him earning a profit if you bid above the high single digits.
Rickey looks unlikely to exceed $5 again due to the probably permanent decrease in Rickey's playing time and therefore stolen base opportunities. We won't project a batting average from Rickey much above .200 given his .74 contact rate, however Rickey will remain a useful bench player indefinitely thanks to Rickey's amazing baserunning and consistently solid OBP. Don't bid more than a buck or two on Rickey, but Rickey's a good target for a half-dozen steals.
Relegated to a backup role for the first time in three seasons, Vander Wal posted his worst numbers in five years. Lefties held him to a .571 OPS, and his OPS against right-handers dropped from .816 to .774 even though he departed San Francisco for the far friendly environs of the Bronx. Vander Wal's unlikely to reclaim a starting job, and since we're already observing erosion in most of his skills, he's not even worth rostering as a reserve until Dollar Days.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Crisp.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Minnesota Prospects for comments on Cuddyer.
New York's non-tendering of Spencer likely condemns him to a AAAA existence, and his failure to emerge as a quality starter during his prime with the Yankees also should keep him from finding a regular starting job elsewhere. He displayed the best plate patience of his career, however Spencer's .696 OPS is simply unacceptable. Although he wouldn't be a bad choice as a platoon partner for some left-handed starters, I don't view Spencer as anything more than a Dollar Days' gamble if he even breaks camp with a team.
While Rolls stole 15 bases in 15 attempts this year at AAA Durham, he's never posted an OBP above .361 at any level at which he batted more than seven times. He doesn't possess sufficient overall offensive upside to merit a look as a starter even given Tampa's precarious outfield situation. I'd like to see him starting at AAA full-time in 2003 so he can try to develop his on-base and speed skills, however he'll likely wind up spending some time as a reserve outfielder in both the majors and AAA. Rolls is an acceptable roto option if you're desperate for steals, but his troublesome plate discipline means you shouldn't view him as anything more than roster filler.
The acquisitions of Chris Singleton and Rontrez Johnson leave Byrnes in competition with Adam Piatt and Jason Grabowski for the role of fifth outfielder, and since Oakland essentially added Singleton and Johnson to replace Byrnes, I don't expect him to spend much time in the majors next season. His poor overall performance last year indicates he needs another full season at AAA to allow the A's to see if he'll ever develop into a competent leadoff man. Byrnes still possesses good speed and some power potential, but he failed to demonstrate the plate discipline required for players to remain in the Oakland organization. He's not a good fantasy gamble for 2003.
Piatt's solid overall 2002 performance at AAA Sacramento, including a .295/.385/.462 line in 234 at-bats, along with a 35:30 BB:K, suggests he's ready for a regular role in the majors. Oakland needs a solid right-handed power bat on the bench, and Piatt offers both pinch-hitting options and a potential platoon partner for Terrence Long. His 1.16 career G-F demonstrates his power upside, so as long as Piatt breaks camp with the team and has the chance to increase his playing time, you definitely should attempt to roster him in the low single digits.
Gipson has spent all of the last two seasons as Seattle's primary reserve outfielder, but the Mariners non-tendered him to avoid a potential arbitration hit. With a set starting nine and McLemore, Bloomquist, and Ben Davis already tapped as back-ups, Seattle needs to target one of the many available former 1B/OF starters for their last bench spot since they need a solid power hitter to occasionally spell Edgar at DH. Bloomquist's ascent therefore leaves no room for either Gipson or fellow non-tender Desi Relaford, and since Gipson only possesses a little plate discipline and speed to go with his good defense, his profile is similar to dozens of other AAAA players. I don't envision him contributing to many fantasy teams in 2003.
After a decade in the minors, Guiel finally earned a call-up on the strength of his .353/.443/.540 line in 215 at-bats at AAA Omaha. He's posted similar numbers throughout his career, however no team's given him a chance despite his obvious power potential. He rewarded the Royals by posting a 1.213 OPS in 23 June at-bats, however Guiel couldn't even manage a .600 OPS in the second half. None of his major league skill ratios suggest he's ready to perform better in 2003, although Guiel's MLEs indicate he can perform better than the limited sample we've seen thus far. I'd consider taking him in Dollar Days if he breaks camp with the Royals, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't get another major league opportunity in the foreseeable future.
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