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December 24th 2002 |
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by Tim Polko I'm skipping my two holiday-themed articles this year due to a general lack of time thanks to a broken washing machine, couch, and general rudeness from other appliances, gadgets, and gizmos; instead I will continue with the roto-intensive articles. Happy Holidays.
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
Ichiro finished as the best AL fantasy pick in 2001, and his sophomore slump only dropped him to third place behind Soriano and ARod. Despite these depressed numbers, his contributions in BA and SB alone would rank him among the top half-dozen AL outfielders. He excelled throughout the first half, posting a .357/.430/.461 with a 43:30 BB:K and 22/31 SB%, however he ended the year in a miserable slump that essentially began at the end of July, leaving him with terrible second-half numbers of .280/.336/.383. His 9/15 second-half SB success rate is even more worrisome, however we still see a lot of solid skill development. Ichiro improved from a 3.39 to 3.48 #P/PA and from a 2.63 G-F to a 2.48. His walk rate leapt from .04 to .11 as is BB:K increased from .57 to 1.10, nicely offsetting a slip in his contact rate from .92 to .90. The biggest concern is his suddenly problematic baserunning; no one expected his SB% to fall from 80% to 67%, suggesting we can't expect much more than three-dozen steals from him in 2003. Fortunately I suspect a return to a top BA, as well as continued power development, leaving him as one of the more attractive players to own in all of baseball.
Mags hiked his OPS to .978 as he continued establishing himself as one of the premiere offensive forces in the game. His G-F fell to a career-best 1.12, suggesting continued power growth and a pending 40-homer season. Though his walk rate dropped from .12 to .09 and his contact rate slightly slipped, both indications that his career-high .320 BA will decline, his overall performance still ranks as very impressive after two roughly similar seasons. Ordonez suffers from no major splits and even increased his OPS by 148 points after the All-Star break. The only problem here is that he suddenly stopped running after increasing his SB totals for four straight seasons, but a power hitter concentrating on his batting rather than his baserunning isn't exactly a surprise. I expect Ordonez's BA to settle close to .300 next year even as his quantitative numbers improve again, giving him somewhere between $35 and $40 of roto value.
Only remaining in Kansas City will keep Beltran from ascending into the fantasy stratosphere as he enters his prime. He's totaled well over 600 at-bats in three of his four seasons, and his quantitative numbers won't substantially improve without noticeable skill development as long as he's a Royal. Fortunately his excellent 87% career SB success rate indicates that he can maintain this steal output, a necessity for him to continue at this level as his SB contribution nearly matches his total value from batting average, homers, and RBI combined. Perhaps the best news in his stats is a 3.95 #P/PA, substantially better than his previous career-high of 3.64 #P/PA from only a year ago; a corresponding improvement in his walk rate from .08 to .11 demonstrates his gradually developing plate discipline. I don't see him reaching 30 homers in 2003, and he might even regress to 25 as there's no power development here despite his great home park. However his long-term upside remains quite impressive, and a move to a team like Texas or Oakland will allow his RBI and runs to rise as he continues refining his batting skills.
We strongly recommended you acquire Bernie after his lackadaisical April when he hit .236/.367/.292 yet displayed superb plate discipline; he compiled a .350 BA and an OPS over .900 over the rest of the season. However, even aside from noting that his defense continues to deteriorate, his batting skills are also slipping as he ages. His .908 OPS was his lowest mark since 1995, dropping for the fourth straight year. After a decline to 1.33 in 2001, his G-F snapped up to 1.87, thereby limiting his future power potential. While a .300 BA remains a foregone conclusion barring injury, any slippage in his quantitative numbers will cause his BA to again account for roughly half his roto value.
Winn looks likely to bat between Ichiro and Olerud in Seattle, giving him one of the cushiest lineup slots in baseball after a season of keying Tampa's offense largely by himself. However his only substantial skill improvements were a drop from a 1.91 G-F to a 1.46 and a return to the over two-dozen SB he posted in 1998. The Mariners should allow him to maintain his steals even as I expect his BA and power contribution to decrease, leaving him around $20 and not even worth 75% of his 2002 roto value.
Hunter's poor second-half torpedoed his MVP candidacy and left him short of goals like 30 homers and 100 RBI that seemed automatic at the All-Star break; he only managed a .263/.315/.464 performance in the second half, numbers which eerily resemble his .271/.317/.458 current career marks. Neither his patience nor power potential improved, nor did we see much development in his walk or contact rates as his quantitative numbers were only slightly superior to his 2001 stats. So the only areas in which he substantially improved his previous performance were batting average, where his career-best .289 isn't much higher than his .280 in 2000, and steals, where his 23 bags and 74% success rate are the best professional stats he's compiled. A mild drop in his batting average looks likely, and we also can't expect improvement in any quantitative category. Fortunately even maintaining these stats will keep his value near its current level though I certainly don't expect him to exceed $30.
The production of a healthy Manny should equal the output of any other hitter in baseball, and the new stress on OBP in the Boston organization could enable Ramirez to challenge the single-season RBI record within the next three years. He nearly reached an 1100 OPS for the third time in the last four seasons, and more importantly, nearly matched a career-best contact rate of .81 for the first time since 1996; his .86 BB:K also was easily a career-high. My only significant concern is that his G-F shot to a career-worst 1.49 mark with no warning after four seasons below a .90, though I see no problem in blaming this problem on his broken index finger. With the improvement in his plate discipline and expected increase in potential RBI, I expect Manny to approach his career-best marks in every power category as he assembles his strongest MVP case to date.
Anderson somehow posted a career-low 3.06 #P/PA in 2002, indicating he generally connected on one of the first three offerings from the majority of pitchers. However the only substantial difference between this season and his 2000 campaign is a 20-point increase in batting average. Of course a career-best .95 G-F intrigues me, especially as it continues a six-year trend of decreasing G-F marks, and the abrupt rise in his doubles from 39 to 56 indicates he'll return above 30 homers in 2003. Despite his poor plate discipline, Anderson looks very capable of earning another $30 next year.
Though I don't expect steals to completely disappear from Boston's offense, a drop from Damon's current total to around 25 seems reasonable since I don't expect he'll find quite so many opportunities to run as high OBP guys should bat before him fairly regularly. Damon didn't notably improve in any category so much as he returned to roughly his level of performance from Kansas City after a mediocre 2001 due to the negative aspects of the Coliseum compared to Kauffman and Fenway. Consequently, while I don't expect a substantial change in his batting average or power numbers, he should slip a couple bucks below $30.
Erstad still doesn't seem worthy of the $32M/4-year contract extension bequeathed to him by the Angels, since his playoff performance alone doesn't outweigh the continued decline in his skills. His 3.42 #P/PA and .04 walk rate were the worst marks of his career by a substantial margin, yet he jumped his BA from .258 in 2001 to a .283 thanks to boosting his contact rate from .84 to .89. So even though he's unlikely to improve in the power categories, Erstad should maintain his BA and SB output, thereby keeping his value at essentially the same level for another season.
Jones and Doug Mientkiewicz are equally likely to depart Minnesota within the next year due to a couple rising prospects at their respective positions. Fortunately for the Twins, Jones' unexpected surge in 2002 should improve his trade value. A drop from a 2.12 G-F to 1.86 accounts for some of his power development, yet I see no obvious reason why his SLG improved almost a hundred points. Both his walk rate and contact rate eroded and his speed largely disappeared, leaving only his fluke .300 BA to keep his OBP at a passable .341, even if Gardenhire should expect a much better performance from his leadoff hitter. Jones is developing into a middle-of-the-order slugger, however he won't post overly impressive numbers as long as he continues to hit mostly groundballs and doesn't display much plate discipline. I can't think of many players more unlikely to equal their 2002 roto value than Jones, and even bidding into the $20 range next season seems risky.
Once his hamstring problems lessened and Toronto hired a manager that appreciated his talents, Stewart reversed his normal second-half slump, instead posting an impressive .318/.398/.467 along with a 35:31 BB:K in 289 at-bats and a 10/12 SB%. He'll re-emerge as a dominant leadoff man if he can maintain those numbers over a full season, however Stewart's generally decreased production over the last two years still ranks among the top dozen AL outfielders. He posted his best plate discipline marks and stolen base percentage in years, and while we're unlikely to see another power surge due to consistency in both his G-F and homer numbers, double-digit homers, 100 runs, and a .300 BA look guaranteed.
Despite his obvious drop in value and decreased BA, few of Cameron's skills changed from last season. His walk rate increased slightly even as his homer output remained the same. However the general decline in Seattle's offense accounts for his 15 fewer runs and 30 fewer RBI, and a fall from a .71 contact rate to .68 largely explains his problematic BA after two seasons of a .267. I see no significant reason why he won't rebound to something like .255/25/90/30/90, thereby pushing his value close to $30 and making him a solid sleeper in 2003.
Lofton posted an excellent rebound season for a 35-year-old speedster, and both his .14 walk rate and .86 contact rate suggest he can sustain this performance for another season. He's even holding his G-F at 1.14, so another dozen or so homers look likely. Now more than 20 steals would surprise me since his fantastic April numbers of .343/.420/.434 and 13 steals seem unrepeatable, however he appears quite capable of keeping his value in the high teens.
Although Wells produced better power numbers in the second half in the same number of at-bats he managed before the All-Star game, his walk rate fell in half to .03. Only a rise in his contact rate from .83 to .88 fueled his bump in batting average and overall production. Wells remains a remarkably undisciplined hitter, and while he possesses significant power and speed gifts, he appears years away from emerging as a superstar. He should spend 2003 consolidating his relatively impressive breakout, yet I doubt his value will increase; don't exceed the high teens when bidding.
Only a bruised hand in August appeared to keep Salmon from returning to the hundred RBI level for the first time in five seasons. As I'm not particularly worried about his overall health, an extra 15 games in the lineup could allow him to approach 30 homers and 100 runs. Now I'm a little concerned about a career-worst 3.78 #P/PA, and a .15 walk rate is his worst mark in nearly a decade, however a .79 contact rate nicely reverses years of decline in that skill. A $20 value looks like Salmon's 2003 downside and he might exceed $25 if he avoids the DL.
A strained hamstring cost him over a month of action, so these numbers look quite decent when considering he fell 100 at-bats short of his normal amount of time in the lineup. Unfortunately career-lows of a .09 walk rate and 3.58 #P/PA denote his reduced patience, but hopefully another change in managers will help him regain some of this lost plate discipline. Yet a career-high .90 contact rate indicates he simply connected on a greater percentage of pitches, and since a .82 G-F indicates his power potential remains promising, a return to 20 homers, along with 80 runs and RBI, looks fairly reasonable. I don't expect a career year from Higginson given the downside of playing half his games in Comerica, however a rebound to $20 seems nearly certain.
I don't understand how Billy Beane identified Oakland's outfield defense as his team's primary weakness when the Athletics possessed the third best defense in the league, however signing Singleton at least improves that specific area even as it damages the offense. Singleton shows no indication of developing plate discipline or additional power, and while his 20 steals in 22 attempts are impressive, his .296 OBP more clearly illustrates his limited worth. He could post a batting average anywhere between .250 and .300, and while joining the Athletics should help most of his quantitative marks, I suspect the likely drop in his steals will keep his value at or below its current level. He's not a good gamble for 2003 anywhere in double digits.
Tucker obviously benefited from returning to Kauffman Stadium after spending most of his career at fairly neutral NL parks. A .78 contact rate suggests he easily could improve to a .260 BA in 2003, yet I doubt we'll see any quantitative development. He should remain in the lineup most days unless Kansas City shows a surprising amount of faith in Ken Harvey, Mark Quinn, and Dee Brown, so a return to a value in the mid-teens seems reasonable. Unfortunately the general uncertainty in Kansas City keeps me from recommending Tucker too strongly, so you only should roster him if he's available in single digits.
Though McLemore is still a key part of the Mariners' bench, the acquisition of Randy Winn should drop him below 100 games and 300 at-bats for the first time in a decade. Hopefully the extra rest will keep the 38-year-old healthy all season and enable him to push 20 steals again. McLemore's usefulness decreases next season since he no longer qualifies at shortstop in most leagues, yet he's still a helpful fourth or fifth outfielder if you can grab him for around five bucks.
If the Yankees don't manage to trade Mondesi, I expect them to realize that more time in the minors won't hurt Rivera, thereby allowing Mondesi to spend most of the season as the right field starter. They'll benefit from that decision after Mondesi posted a career-best .95 G-F and fairly respectable 3.70 #P/PA. His .83 contact rate was his best mark in half a decade, and as he held a .10 walk rate while demonstrating good power and speed, I expect his BA to leap upward in 2003. Mondesi could approach $30 of value even while playing in Yankee Stadium, and you should be happy to acquire him anywhere around $20.
Southpaws remain at the top of Nixon's enemies' list as they limited him to a .233/.303/.353; of course his .262/.348/.502 performance against right-handers also wasn't too impressive. While his power potential increased for the fourth straight year, his patience notably slipped as his OBP dropped from .376 to a career-low .338. Nixon needs to rebound strongly in 2003 to remain in the Red Sox's long-term plans, and while I hope he can emerge as the middle-of-the-order threat everyone expected a couple years ago, I don't see any bid above the high teens earning a profit.
Chicago has no comprehension of how to treat Lee, a bona fide future All-Star who looks ready to explode in 2003. Although his steals dropped from 17 to 1, he exceeded his 2001 homer output despite 66 fewer at-bats. More importantly, he achieved career-best marks of a 1.03 BB:K, .15 walk rate, 4.02 #P/PA, and .67 G-F, and even his .85 contact rate was essentially identical to his previous high in 1999. Lee could approach a 1.000 OPS without surprising me, especially after he hit .293/.406/.558 in 147 at-bats in the #3 hole and compiled a .283/.407/.521 line in the second half. I wouldn't hesitate to continue bidding to $30 on Lee, and I suspect you won't even need to pay that much given his outward consistency over the past three seasons.
Nearly all analysts seem to realize that Kielty is the best choice to leadoff for Minnesota except those actually employed by the Twins. Although he's less effective against left-handers and slipped to a .259/.370/.459 performance in the second half, those numbers nearly matched Jacque Jones' yearlong marks, and a higher OBP has more value in the #1 slot. Projected to a full season of 500 at-bats, we can expect Kielty to reach 21 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, and 7 steals, numbers that would shoot his value to $20. Only the apparent preference of Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire for playing Matt LeCroy and Mike Restovich keeps Kielty from emerging as a significant roto bargain, and his skills merit a bid in the mid-teens on the basis of his notable upside.
The reason for Grieve's power outage becomes quite apparent after a cursory examination of his skills:
Year HR G-F 1998 18 2.08 1999 28 1.42 2000 27 1.51 2001 11 2.13 2002 19 2.08Though he's still a patient hitter, Grieve barely reached a 75% contact rate the last two years after never falling below 78% during his time in Oakland. Left-handers also held him to a .221/.320/.313 performance, and his production against right-handers barely warrants a platoon job. Grieve's playing for his job in 2003 as Tampa should non-tender him following the season, yet none of his skills suggest a statistical rebound. Don't even bid into the teens for Grieve.
Dye finally looked healthy in the second half as he posted a .261/.338/.515 line, yet a terrible .212/.304/.293 performance against lefties dragged down all his numbers. Fortunately he compiled career-best marks of 4.12 #P/PA and a .91 G-F, so while I'm concerned that his contact rate has fallen from .84 to .78 over the past couple seasons, a return to 30 HR and 100 RBI does not appear unreasonable. Dye may approach $20 of roto value in 2003, but you're unlikely to see a notable profit if you bid above the mid-teens.
I'm still rather surprised that the Tigers non-tendered their lone All-Star rather than finding some trade partner interested in Fick. Of course he didn't fit in their 2003 lineup with Pena slotted at 1B and Higginson, Dmitri Young, Dean Palmer, and Eric Munson respectively slated for RF, LF, 3B, and DH; only a willingness to play Young or Munson at 3B would have left room for Fick. Now Fick's stuck competing against another half-dozen qualified candidates for just a few available first base and/or outfield jobs, and nothing in his statistical profile suggests the pending breakout that would attract interest from many teams. Although he's a relatively patient power hitter, neither a .08 walk rate nor a .84 contact rate indicate much upside, making him a risky buy above single-digits regardless of his new team.
Sierra almost surely will return to a backup role in 2003 given the flood of more qualified starting candidates on the market. His production dramatically decreased after a decent first half, and even a .771 OPS against right-handers isn't sufficient to earn regular playing time. I'm most troubled by his 1.39 G-F, Sierra's worst mark in well over a decade. Without any indication of improving plate discipline or even a continuation of his previous power potential, there's no reason to spend more than a couple bucks on Sierra given his likely limited at-bats.
Kapler not only failed to fulfill our expectations of an impressive breakout, he posted one of the most disappointing seasons of the year, as he didn't even homer until August after his trade to Colorado. His plate discipline largely disappeared and he also posted a 1.23 G-F, the worst mark of his career. Now his .311/.359/.445 performance in Colorado seems like a reasonable expectation for his 2003 stats, especially since he's not better than second behind Jay Payton in the depth chart in left field, and he faces competition from Jack Cust and Ben Petrick for at-bats. Kapler's still solid speed and previous power upside made him an intriguing gamble, but there's nothing here that demands a bid above single digits.
Mohr should have spent this year at AAA after skipping from AA New Britain to the majors. Now there's little wrong with the Twins keeping him as an essentially free backup for the next two years, but I don't expect Mohr to see this much playing time again with Kielty, Cuddyer, LeCroy, Restovich, Mike Ryan, and Lew Ford meriting starting jobs in the near future. A poor .203/.293/.338 performance against lefties gives Mohr little value as someone's platoon mate, so while he compiled a decent rookie season, I neither view Mohr as a good keeper nor as someone worth more than a few bucks in a draft.
Everett has never reached 500 at-bats in a season, and since he hasn't even exceeded 410 AB for the last two years, we can't expect too much production from him in 2003 now that Texas has signed Doug Glanville to compete for outfield time. However Everett managed a career-best 3.93 #P/PA while holding his G-F at 1.01, and he even pushed his contact rate back to .79 after a drop in 2001. I see several indications of a respectable rebound in 2003 that should include 20 HR, 75 RBI, a .280 BA, and perhaps even a half-dozen steals, and his injury problems mean that you might be able to acquire a potential $25 player for a single-digit salary. Now I don't expect Everett's value to rise above the teens next year, but he still possesses nice upside for owners inclined to gamble that he'll remain healthy.
The biggest surprise when considering Garcia is realizing that he only turned 27 this October despite starting in Arizona's outfield five years ago. He accumulated 52 RBI in only two months of work as Cleveland didn't recall him until after the trading deadline, leaving these numbers to suggest he's capable of smacking 40 homers and driving in 130 runs if given 500 at-bats. While I certainly don't expect him to reach those milestones, his lack of a platoon split suggests that a 20/80 season is his downside, and as most of Cleveland's youngsters like Crisp and Escobar need another year in the minors, Garcia deserves to start at an outfield corner. Now he's a remarkably impatient hitter, so anything above a .250 BA in a full season would surprise me, however nothing here indicates he can't maintain a decent output, especially as he produced a .264/.326/.517 line at AAA Buffalo in 2001, along with 31 HR and 85 RBI. Garcia likely won't be starting by the beginning of 2004, but he shouldn't hurt you as long as you don't bid into the mid-teens.
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