Today's Fantasy Rx

2002 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

We firmly believe that the Rule 5 draft is a great chance to add depth to your roster by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill roles like backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder. Teams also should target pitchers from A+ and above to work in long relief or as lefty specialists. While we'd likely take one backup position player and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, if we were drafting, a couple teams still really impressed us this year.

Round One

Milwaukee: Enrique Cruz, 3B, NYM; 21, B:R, T:R.
136/467 for .291/.336/.383 with 6 HR, 45 RBI, 69 R, 33/49 SB%,
and 32:76 BB:K at A+ St. Lucie(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Roster filler at best; since he didn't even impress in the Florida State League in 2002, Cruz's at least two additional years away from contributing regularly in the majors. He's a terrible choice in keeper leagues since he'll lose his rookie eligibility and won't be back to the majors until around 2005.

Tampa Bay: Hector Luna, SS, CLE; 22, B:R, T:R.
129/468 for .276/.334/.404 with 11 HR, 51 RBI, 67 R, 32/43 SB%,
and 39:79 BB:K at A+ Kinston(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Felix Escalona's reserve infielder slot.
Fantasy Potential: Luna obviously possesses solid speed, however he lacks both power and plate discipline. Unless you're desperate for any available steals, I wouldn't risk the potential BA damage.

San Diego: Buddy Hernandez, RHP, ATL; 23, B:R, T:R.
4-0 on 81:23 K:BB in 59 IP over 40 G with 36 H, 0 HR,
and a 1.22 ERA at AA Greenville(SL).
Traded to Oakland for IF Jose Flores.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: $5+ if Oakland keeps him on the roster, however they'll likely only keep one of their two sub-6' Rule 5 right-handers between Hernandez and Mike Neu.

Detroit: Wil Ledezma, LHP, BOS; 21, B:L, T:L.
2-2 on 41:8 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 5 GS(6G) with 27 H, 0 HR,
and a 4.05 ERA between R Red Sox(GCL) and A Augusta(Sal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: Roster filler if his skill ratios look remotely acceptable, however we don't expect a solid performance since he's never even pitched above A-ball.

Chicago Cubs: Derek Thompson, LHP, CLE; 21, B:L, T:L.
5-7 on 91:59 K:BB in 148 IP over 27 GS with 143 H, 4 HR,
and a 3.65 ERA between A Columbus(Sal) and A+ Kinston(Car).
Traded to Los Angeles for cash.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 15%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: None as Thompson didn't even post solid stats in A-ball before an unwarranted mid-season promotion.

Kansas City: D.J. Carrasco, LHP, PIT; 25, B:R, T:R.
4-4 and 29 Saves on 83:18 K:BB in 72.2 IP over 55 G with 52 H, 1 HR,
and a 1.61 ERA at A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 45%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: None, since despite dominating A-ball, he's shown little skill in two different AA trials.

Pittsburgh: Matt Roney, RHP, COL; 22, B:R, T:R.
7-12 on 149:58 K:BB in 153.1 IP over 27 GS with 15 H, 13 HR,
and a 4.70 ERA between A Asheville(Sal) and A+ Carolina(SL).
Traded to Detroit for cash.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.

Colorado: Victor Hall, OF, ARI; 22, B:L, T:L.
144/513 for .281/.343/.376 with 3 HR, 44 RBI, 90 R, 33/52 SB%,
and 43:95 BB:K between A+ Lancaster(Cal) and AA El Paso(TL).
Traded to Houston for cash.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Pinch-runner and defensive replacement.
Fantasy Potential: Roster filler, but if he's strictly limited to pinch-running, he might steal a dozen bases without hurting your batting average too much.

Texas: Marshall McDougall, 3B, CLE; 24, B:R, T:R.
106/336 for .315/.391/.510 with 10 HR, 60 RBI, 66 R, 7/11 SB%,
and 45:60 BB:K between AA Midland(TL), A- Mahoning Valley(NYP),
and AA Akron(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder.
Fantasy Potential: While he really needs at least one more year of seasoning, McDougall's position flexibility around the infield and his overall offensive upside makes him a decent gamble for a buck or two. Of course I don't expect him to see much playing time, and there's no place for him in Texas long-term, so don't invest much in this wild card.

Cleveland: Travis Chapman, 3B, PHI; 24, B:R, T:R.
144/478 for .301/.388/.473 with 15 HR, 76 RBI, 64 R, 3/4 SB%,
and 54:77 BB:K at AA Reading(EL).
Traded to Detroit for cash.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder, along with at least some starts at third.
Fantasy Potential: His MLE numbers suggest he may have approached $10 if he was starting in the majors in 2002. Now the Tigers have a potential impact player obtained for relatively little, and he should be ready to start full-time in 2004 if he's given a chance to succeed in a reduced role next season. Chapman's easily worth a couple bucks on draft day, and rebuilding teams should definitely look to grab him.

Cincinnati: Luke Prokopec, RHP, LA; 24, B:L, T:R.
2-9 on 41:25 K:BB in 71.2 IP over 12 GS(22G) with 90 H, 19 HR,
and a 6.78 ERA in Toronto.
0-0 on 2:0 K:BB in 2.0 IP over 2 G with 0 H, 0 HR,
and a 0.00 ERA at AAA Syracuse(IL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 100%.
Probable Role if Kept: Disabled list due to arm surgery.
Fantasy Potential: None.

Toronto: Aquilino Lopez, RHP, SEA; 27, B:, T:.
4-4 and 5 Saves on 103:27 K:BB in 109.1 IP over 34 G(11GS) with 89 H, 6 HR,
and a 2.39 ERA at AAA Tacoma(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: Unlike Corey Thurman, Toronto's Rule 5 pick in 2002, Lopez has dominated AAA, owns excellent all-around skills, and is nearing his career peak. He should easily surpass $5 and could approach double-digit value if he earns a more significant role.

Boston: Javier Lopez, LHP, ARI; 25, B:L, T:L.
2-2 and 6 Saves on 47:16 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 61 G with 34 H, 3 HR,
and a 2.72 ERA at AA El Paso(TL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: While dominating hitters in El Paso impresses me, I can't envision Lopez accumulating much value since Boston appears likely to limit his use. Even ignore him as roster filler unless his skills look surprisingly solid.

Montreal: Luis Ayala, RHP, ARI; 24, B:R, T:R.
0-0 on 6:4 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 6 G with 7 H, 1 HR,
and a 3.52 ERA at AAA Ottawa(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 5%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: Ayala's spent most of the last six years pitching for Saltillo in the Mexican League, and Arizona signed him away from Montreal as a minor league free agent. I neither expect Montreal to keep him in the majors nor Arizona to pay $25K for his return, so Ayala should spent 2003 at either AAA or back in Saltillo, leaving him with no fantasy value.

Minnesota: Jose Morban, SS, TEX; 23, B:R, T:R.
126/485 for .260/.326/.414 with 8 HR, 66 RBI, 75 R, 21/30 SB%,
and 46:111 BB:K at A+ Charlotte(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 80%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder.
Fantasy Potential: While Morban could steal a few bases, his weak plate discipline and limited power suggest he'll fail against major league pitching. I can't imagine owning him given the way Ron Gardenhire uses his bench.

Oakland: Michael Neu, RHP, CIN; 24, B:S, T:R.
3-3 and 23 Saves on 85:27 K:BB in 67.1 IP over 61 G with 57 H, 4 HR,
and a 2.94 ERA between AA Chattanooga(SL) and AAA Louisville(IL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: Both Neu and Buddy Hernandez may compete for one bullpen spot in the spring, and Neu has a definite edge due to 40 innings at AAA, whereas Hernandez hasn't pitched above AA. Cincinnati severely erred by not protecting Neu, and he could easily earn $5 or more while providing welcome depth to the Athletics' pen.

Atlanta: Chris Spurling, RHP, PIT; 25, B:R, T:R.
4-3 and 20 Saves on 60:12 K:BB in 70 IP over 51 G with 54 H, 8 HR,
and a 2.19 ERA at AA Altoona(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: I envision Spurling earning a few bucks of positive value due to the combination of his solid skills and Atlanta's suddenly barren bullpen, however I'd wait until he displays those skills in the majors before rostering him.

Round Two

Milwaukee: Matt Ford, RHP, TOR; 21, B:S, T:L.
9-5 on 85:42 K:BB in 114 IP over 18 GS(21G) with 100 H, 7 HR,
and a 2.37 ERA at A+ Dunedin(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Likely none; I can't see him earning much value in the majors given his barely acceptable skills in A+.

San Diego: Shane Victorino, OF, LA; 22, B:R, T:R.
124/481 for .258/.328/.318 with 4 HR, 34 RBI, 61 R, 45/61 SB%,
and a 47:49 BB:K at AA Jacksonville(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 95%.
Probable Role if Kept: Eugene Kingsale's pinch-running and defensive replacement job.
Fantasy Potential: Victorino's solid plate discipline makes his SB upside a good gamble for anyone even considering rebuilding, and I'd chance a buck on him in most any league. San Diego's still looking for a long-term solution in center field, so they might even let Victorino start if they can trade Trammell or Nevin.

Kansas City: Ronny Paulino, C, PIT; 21, B:R, T:R.
116/442 for .262/.321/.412 with 12 HR, 55 RBI, 63 R, 2/3 SB%,
and 39:87 BB:K at A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 49%.
Probable Role if Kept: Back-up catcher.
Fantasy Potential: None even if he makes the team.

Texas: John Koronka, LHP, CIN; 22, B:L, T:L.
13-8 on 138:87 K:BB in 169 IP over 27 GS(28G) with 168 H, 14 HR,
and a 4.15 ERA between A+ Stockton(Cal) and AA Chattanooga(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: None, since he's displayed little skill during two extended stints at AA.

Cincinnati: Blake Williams, RHP, STL; 23, B:R, T:R.
0-1 on 8:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 2 GS with 2 H, 1 HR,
and a 1.69 ERA at A- New Jersey(NYP).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 15%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: None.

Toronto: Gary Majewski, RHP, CHW; 22, B:R, T:R.
5-3 on 75:34 K:BB in 74.2 IP over 57 G(1GS) with 61 H, 3 HR,
and a 2.65 ERA at AA Birmingham(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 85%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: Up to $5, but don't roster him until he displays solid skills for a few weeks.

Boston: Matt White, LHP, CLE; 25, B:R, T:L.
6-2 on 85:45 K:BB in 106.1 IP over 34 G(12GS) with 120 H, 10 HR,
and a 4.66 ERA between AA Akron(EL) and AAA Buffalo(IL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: None.

Oakland: Rontrez Johnson, OF, TEX; 26, B:R, T:R.
121/403 for .300/.397/.454 with 9 HR, 53 RBI, 71 R, 31/42 SB%,
and 50:51 BB:K at AAA Omaha(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 95%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fourth outfielder with the potential to see significant starting time in CF.
Fantasy Potential: Up to $20 if he wins the starting job, but I wouldn't bid more than around $5 given his inconsistent track record.

Round Three

Cincinnati: Jerome Gamble, RHP, BOS; 22, B:R, T:R.
1-2 on 42:22 K:BB in 49.1 IP over 14 GS with 34 H, 2 HR,
and a 1.82 ERA at A Augusta(Sal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 1%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: None as he bombed in his only exposure to A+ in 2001.

Toronto: Jason Dubois, OF, CHC; 23, B:R, T:R.
116/361 for .321/.422/.562 with 20 HR, 85 RBI, 64 R, 6/8 SB%,
and 57:95 BB:K at A+ Daytona(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: 5th outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Roster filler at best since he won't see sufficient at-bats to add much power and could hurt you qualitatively.

Boston: Adrian Brown, OF, TB; 28, B:S, T:R.
45/208 for .216/.284/.298 with 1 HR, 21 RBI, 20 R, 10/16 SB%,
and 19:34 BB:K in Pittsburgh.
62/184 for .337/.409/.435 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 36 R, 22/28 SB%,
and 23:18 BB:K at AAA Nashville(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: 4th outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Up to $10 if he's given regular playing time, but I don't expect him to exceed $5 due to Boston's continued de-emphasis of the stolen base.

I'll continue tomorrow with the minor league phase of the 2002 Rule 5 draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams only took 12 players in 2001, as opposed to 28 guys this year. Of those 12, six players stayed in the majors all year, although three of those players wound up spending the season with teams different from those that originally selected them. From the 10 players selected in 2000, only 3, Jay Gibbons, Donaldo Mendez, and Jose Antonio Nunez, spent all year in the majors, and Nunez changed teams. Of the 17 players taken in 1999, only 5 weren't returned to their original teams, and Johan Santana and Damian Rolls both changes teams.

So out of the 39 players selected in the last three Rule 5 drafts, 14 remained in the majors, and only 8 stayed with the teams that drafted them. While I expect these percentages to rise slightly due the Blue Jays and Red Sox's increased appreciation of free talent, we still can expect that no more than a dozen players will remain with new teams, and up to six of those players will change teams following their selection in the draft.