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December
21st
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
NL First Basemen: Prospects and Suspects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA First Basemen in the National League


Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor League Free Agents:
Ken Huff, 23, B:L, T:L.
36/205 for .176/.241/.259 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 17 R, 2/3 SB%,
and 16:58 BB:K between A Quad City(Mid) and A- Yakima(NWL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A- backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: A-ball backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Prospects:
Steve Neal, 25, B:L, T:L.
115/407 for .283/.383/.472 with 16 HR, 75 RBI, 57 R, 3/4 SB%,
and 63:106 BB:K at AA El Paso(TL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2007.


Atlanta Braves
Minor League Free Agents:
Tim Unroe, 31, B:R, T:R.
64/264 for .242/.332/.413 with 10 HR, 40 RBI, 33 R, 1/3 SB%,
and 28:86 BB:K at AAA Richmond(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

A.J. Zapp, 24, B:L, T:R.
88/392 for .224/.305/.408 with 18 HR, 53 RBI, 46 R, 1/1 SB%,
and 41:108 BB:K between AA Greenville(SL) and AAA Richmond(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2007.

Prospects:
Adam LaRoche, 22, B:L, T:L.
134/423 for .317/.387/.470 with 13 HR, 72 RBI, 47 R, 1/4 SB%,
and 46:75 BB:K between A+ Myrtle Beach(Car) and AA Greenville(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2007.


Chicago Cubs
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Mike Dzurilla, 24, B:R, T:R.
98/379 for .259/.327/.414 with 9 HR, 50 RBI, 54 R, 12/18 SB%,
and 38:47 BB:K between A+ Daytona(FSL) and AA West Tenn(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA starter by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2007.

Dave Kelton, 22, B:R, T:R.
130/498 for .261/.332/.462 with 20 HR, 79 RBI, 68 R, 12/18 SB%,
and 52:129 BB:K at AA West Tenn(TL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: Mid-round draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2007.

Brad Ramsey, 25, B:R, T:R.
0/4 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and 0:0 BB:K at AAA Iowa(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+ backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.


Cincinnati Reds
Minor League Free Agents:
Manuel Espinal, ??, B:R, T:?.
30/168 for .179/.210/.256 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, 20 R, 3/8 SB%,
and 5:53 BB:K at R- Cincinnati(DSL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: R- backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Rookie-ball backup .
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Tom Nevers, 31, B:R, T:R.
139/444 for .313/.369/.468 with 13 HR, 77 RBI, 58 R, 9/15 SB%,
and 32:77 BB:K at AA Chattanooga(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2006.

Kevin Witt, 26, B:L, T:R.
134/509 for .263/.314/.472 with 24 HR, 107 RBI, 77 R, 0/1 SB%,
and 34:140 BB:K at AAA Louisville(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: Major League backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2006.

Prospects:
Pete Rose, Jr., 32, B:L, T:R.
7/31 for .226/.333/.226 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and 5:5 BB:K at AA Chattanooga(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AA backup in 2003.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.


Colorado Rockies
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Kevin Burford, 24, B:L, T:L.
75/266 for .282/.397/.410 with 3 HR, 33 RBI, 266 R, 2/8 SB%,
and 48:51 BB:K at AA Carolina(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2007.

Brian Keck, 28, B:R, T:R.
12/87 for .138/.222/.195 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, 5/5 SB%,
and 9:11 BB:K between AA Carolina(SL) and AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.


Florida Marlins
Minor League Free Agents:
Daniel Ortiz, 21, B:R, T:R.
17/100 for .170/.270/.230 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 13 , 0/1 SB%,
and 12:48 BB:K between A- Jamestown(NYP) and A Kane County(Mid).
Appropriate 2003 Role: Rookie-ball backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: A-ball backup.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Prospects:
Adrian Gonzalez, 20, B:L, T:L.
135/508 for .266/.344/.437 with 17 HR, 96 RBI, 70 R, 6/9 SB%,
and 54:112 BB:K at AA Portland(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: Mid-round draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2007.


Houston Astros
Minor League Free Agents:
Frank Charles, 33, B:R, T:R.
88/332 for .265/.306/.361 with 6 HR, 49 RBI, 30 R, 1/4 SB%,
and 17:83 BB:K at AAA New Orleans(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

Tripp Cromer, 34, B:R, T:R.
68/265 for .257/.389/.400 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 31 R, 0/0 SB%,
and 9:42 BB:K at AAA New Orleans(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

Prospects:
Royce Huffman, 25, B:R, T:R.
168/522 for .322/.381/.471 with 12 HR, 91 RBI, 79 R, 13/19 SB%,
and 41:70 BB:K at AA Round Rock(TL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

T.J. Soto, 25, B:R, T:R.
54/232 for .233/.296/.379 with 8 HR, 36 RBI, 27 R, 12/15 SB%,
and 23:95 BB:K between A+ Lexington(Sal) and AA Round Rock(TL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.


Los Angeles Dodgers
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Hunter Bledsoe, 26, B:R, T:R.
97/348 for .279/.381/.376 with 4 HR, 38 RBI, 39 R, 3/7 SB%,
and 54:42 BB:K at AA Jacksonville(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.


Milwaukee Brewers
Minor League Free Agents:
Jon Zuber, 33, B:L, T:L.
92/385 for .239/.355/.304 with 2 HR, 25 RBI, 54 R, 5/7 SB%,
and 65:50 BB:K at AAA Indianapolis(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

Prospects:
Bill Scott, 23, B:R, T:R.
59/249 for .237/.282/.309 with 3 HR, 27 RBI, 16 R, 4/6 SB%,
and 15:62 BB:K at AA Huntsville(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2007.


Montreal Expos
Minor League Free Agents:
Luis Ortiz, 32, B:R, T:R.
111/382 for .291/.329/.429 with 5 HR, 63 RBI, 47 R, 1/1 SB%,
and 22:35 BB:K at AAA Ottawa(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

Joe Vitiello, 32, B:R, T:R.
142/431 for .329/.390/.520 with 16 HR, 82 RBI, 57 R, 1/1 SB%,
and 39:58 AAA Ottawa(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: Major League starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter in 2003.
2003 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.

Prospects:
Jeff Bailey, 23, B:R, T:R.
87/309 for .282/.416/.469 with 13 HR, 52 RBI, 45 R, 3/6 SB%,
and 63:78 BB:K at AA Harrisburg(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.

Glenn Davis, 26, B:S, T:L.
42/157 for .268/.341/.497 with 8 HR, 23 RBI, 20 R, 1/2 SB%,
and 18:46 BB:K between AA Norwich(EL), A+ Brevard County(FSL),
and AA Harrisburg(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2007.

Desi Wilson, 33, B:L, T:L.
7/54 for .130/.203/.130 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and 5:12 BB:K at AA Harrisburg(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA/AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2006.


New York Mets
Minor League Free Agents:
Aaron McNeal, 24, B:R, T:R.
120/434 for .276/.349/.468 with 22 HR, 77 RBI, 59 R, 1/3 SB%,
and 51:118 BB:K between AA Binghamton(EL) and AAA Norfolk(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League backup by 2007.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2008.

Prospects:
Craig Brazell, 22, B:L, T:R.
147/532 for .276/.305/.474 with 22 HR, 101 RBI, 52 R, 2/5 SB%,
and 14:106 BB:K between A+ St. Lucie(FSL) and AA Binghamton(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA starter by 2007.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2008.

Jorge Toca, 27, B:R, T:R.
49/195 for .251/.283/.328 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 21 R, 2/3 SB%,
and 9:31 BB:K at AAA Norfolk(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.


Philadelphia Phillies
Minor League Free Agents:
Troy Farnsworth, 26, B:R, T:R.
88/416 for .212/.276/.351 with 12 HR, 51 RBI, 36 R, 1/2 SB%,
and 33:110 BB:K between AA New Haven(EL) and A+ Clearwater(FSL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Gene Schall, 32, B:R, T:R.
18/89 for .202/.311/.337 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 15 R, 0/1 SB%,
and 13:23 BB:K at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

Prospects:
Nate Espy, 24, B:R, T:R.
138/517 for .267/.363/.410 with 14 HR, 76 RBI, 83 R, 18/19 SB%,
and 73:83 BB:K at AA Reading(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2008.

J.P. Roberge, 30, B:R, T:R.
128/431 for .297/.355/.425 with 8 HR, 55 RBI, 58 R, 7/8 SB%,
and 34:66 BB:K between AA Reading(EL) and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.


Pittsburgh Pirates
Minor League Free Agents:
Chris Pritchett, 32, B:L, T:R.
116/397 for .292/.367/.408 with 9 HR, 60 RBI, 53 R, 3/3 SB%,
and 46:95 BB:K at AAA Nashville(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: Major League backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League backup in 2003.
2003 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.

Prospects:
Carlos Rivera, 24, B:L, T:L.
149/494 for .302/.345/.500 with 22 HR, 84 RBI, 67 R, 1/2 SB%,
and 27:75 BB:K at AA Altoona(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.


San Diego Padres
Minor League Free Agents:
Ryan Jones, 27, B:R, T:R.
56/266 for .211/.294/.410 with 13 HR, 53 RBI, 39 R, 2/3 SB%,
and 30:56 BB:K at AA Mobile(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Prospects:
Tagg Bozied, 23, B:R, T:R.
134/516 for .260/.329/.475 with 24 Hr, 92 RBI, 80 R, 4/8 SB%,
and 51:103 BB:K between A+ Lake Elsinore(Cal) and AA Mobile(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: Low-round draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2007.

Thomas Martinez, 19, B:R, T:R.
11/73 for .151/.205/.233 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 R, 1/1 SB%,
and 4:28 BB:K between A- Eugene(NWL) and AAA Portland(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: Rookie-ball backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: A+ backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

John Scheschuk, 25, B:L, T:L.
41/153 for .268/.398/.366 with 1 HR, 27 RBI, 17 R, 1/3 SB%,
and 33:19 BB:K at AA Mobile(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2006.


San Francisco Giants
Minor League Free Agents:
Alejandro Freire, 28, B:R, T:R.
90/323 for .279/.361/.455 with 13 HR, 39 RBI, 36 R, 0/2 SB%,
and 33:66 BB:K between AA Shreveport(TL) and AAA Fresno(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2004.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

Prospects:
Lance Niekro, 23, B:R, T:R.
92/297 for .310/.327/.424 with 4 HR, 34 RBI, 33 R, 0/2 SB%,
and 7:32 BB:K at AA Shreveport(TL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2008.

Sean McGowan, 25, B:R, T:R.
115/429 for .268/.312/.380 with 5 HR, 49 RBI, 36 R, 1/3 SB%,
and 21:79 BB:K between A+ San Jose(Cal), AA Shreveport(TL),
and AAA Fresno(PCL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA starter by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2007.


St. Louis Cardinals
Minor League Free Agents:
Bucky Jacobsen, 27, B:R, T:R.
80/300 for .267/.343/.497 with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 44 R, 2/4 SB%,
and 31:66 BB:K between AA Huntsville(SL) and AA New Haven(SL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2006.

Jeremy Luster, 25, B:S, T:R.
80/379 for .211/.271/.322 with 7 HR, 48 RBI, 45 R, 6/14 SB%,
and 28:63 BB:K between A+ San Jose(Cal) and A+ Potomac(Car).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Prospects:
John Gall, 24, B:R, T:R.
166/526 for .316/.362/.527 with 20 HR, 81 RBI, 82 R, 4/5 SB%,
and 38:75 BB:K at AA New Haven(EL).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major League starter by 2005.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2007.

Nick Leach, 24, B:L, T:R.
16/79 for .203/.286/.304 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and 7:19 BB:K between AA Norwich(EL) and A+ Potomac(Car).
Appropriate 2003 Role: A+/AA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Billy Munoz, 27, B:L, T:L.
104/434 for .240/.346/.396 with 11 HR, 71 RBI, 59 R, 4/7 SB%,
and 71:98 BB:K between AA Akron(EL) and A+ Potomac(Car).
Appropriate 2003 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2006.
2003 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2007.


We'll present our complete 2002 Rule 5 Draft Review tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: First base prospects remain among the worst possible choices in minor league drafts, since while they often possess the best statistical profiles, first basemen are easy to both acquire and deal. Texas has illustrated this point nicely over the last year by dealing Carlos Pena and Travis Hafner, both among the top 1B prospects in baseball. The only players on today's list who I consider fairly likely to start for their current teams in the majors are Adrian Gonzalez and Tagg Bozied, and Gonzalez's limited power development has left him in the center of a few trade rumors. You generally should target outfielders rather than first basemen since most youngsters at least have the option of playing right or left field, whereas few gifted athletes spend much time at first base in the minors.


Click here to read the previous article.

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