Today's Fantasy Rx

Unlike last year, when I divided the two sections of the Rule 5 Draft into two sections added onto my regular articles, I'm going to wait to discuss the draft until Sunday and then spend all of Sunday looking at picks. I'll accordingly move through NL first basemen in just three days.

National League First Basemen with Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Helton		553	182	.329	30	109	5	107	1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	32		24		37		39
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	31		24		36		39

A year after finishing only slightly behind Bonds as the best NL position player in roto, Helton slipped to fifth in the league as he earned roughly 60% of the value of NL leader Vladimir Guerrero. The biggest change was that he dropped from a 1.252 home OPS and a .976 mark on the road to respective totals of 1.137 and then an .876 OPS on the road. He also posted a second half OPS about a hundred points below his mark before the break despite a couple of long home stretches towards the end of the year. I see no obvious explanation for his deterioration other than the general malaise that seemed to affect nearly every Colorado position player, however Helton's superb skills suggest a promising rebound. He posted a career-high .18 walk rate, so his plate discipline remains excellent, and his other main skills remained very close to his marks from 2001. The humidor isn't even a good explanation as he posted better numbers early in the year before Coors' scoring headed upwards after the first couple months of the season. Lacking any significant objective knowledge to which we can attribute this slump other than a mild power outage, I fully expect Helton to return to the $40+ value we expect from him.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan Klesko		540	162	.300	29	95	6	90	1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	25		19		28		29
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	24		18		27		31

Klesko still finished as the 18th best NL position player even though his SB total fell from 23 to 6. An .862 OPS against left-handers at least suggests he's finally learning to hit southpaws, and he'll also benefit from remaining at first base, along with better health from players around him in the lineup like Nevin and Burroughs. I don't see any worrisome loss of skill aside from the decrease in steals, so he seems fairly likely to post another year near a stat line of .300/30/100/10/100, making him one of the first basemen we'd definitely like to own.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Bagwell		571	166	.291	31	98	7	94	1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	24		18		21		32
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	24		18		22		31

Primarily due to Jimy Williams' often nonsensical lineups, Bagwell failed to reach 100 runs and RBI for the first time in a full season since 1993; at least the Jeff Kent signing should push both those numbers upwards. Bagwell still surged in the second half as usual, but right-handers limited him to an .866 OPS. While we see some slow deterioration in his skills, he remains a very capable five-category threat who should post at least one more season of MVP-caliber numbers. Even though his stats don't dictate this strategy, I have no problem pushing $30 on Bagwell since I expect a noticeable rebound in all his power numbers.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Derrek Lee		581	157	.270	27	86	19	95	1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	23		17		13		20
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	22		17		13		18

The vast majority of Lee's increase in value to well over $20 stems from Jeff Torborg's steal-happy managerial style. Lee attempted 28 steals this year, 10 more than his pre-2002 career total; however his speed isn't a complete surprise as he stole 13 or more bases in four different minor league seasons. He actually posted an OPS against right-handers 1 point above his .871 mark against lefties, and we're seeing definite development of plate discipline elsewhere in his skills. Lee's .17 walk rate, 4.21 #P/PA, and .83 G-F all rank as the best full-season marks of his career, and while a drop in his contact rate from .78 to .72 is troublesome, his overall development should compensate for the additional strikeouts. Lee should reach $25 in 2003 on the strength of a 30/90/15 season, cementing his place as one of the top half-dozen NL first basemen.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Richie Sexson		570	159	.279	29	102	0	86	1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	18		14		16		26
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	18		14		16		25

Sexson's one of the few 100 RBI sources left at first base thanks to his prodigious power, however he lacks the overall offensive skill and lineup support necessary to exceed $20 at the moment. His OPS against right-handers improved from .865 in 2001 to .896 this year even as his OPS against lefties plummeted from .967 to .736, showing the drop in his power numbers. While his walk rate moved from .10 to .12 and his contact rate jumped to .76 from a .70, unfortunately his #P/PA fell from 3.91 to 3.79 and his G-F increased from 1.15 to a 1.33, his worst mark since 1998. I think his improving plate discipline will help him overcome these other problems, so I expect he'll return to the 40/100 level in 2003, although any chance of exceeding 100 RBI depends entirely on who new manager Ned Yost bats ahead of Sexson.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fred McGriff		523	143	.273	30	103	1	67	1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	17		13		11		17
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	17		13		11		17

Ye Olde Cryme Dogge continued trotting towards a potential Hall of Fame berth, only 22 HR shy of 500 career dingers and passed 1500 RBI in 2002. Left-handers limited him to a poor .620 OPS, so he should accept a platoon mate, but he also posted a .89 G-F, his best power mark since his 1987 debut. An increase in his contact rate from .79 to .81 suggests that his BA shouldn't fall past .270, and if he finds a starting job, you might even see a buck or two of profit on the $15 bid that might be necessary to acquire him.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Dunn		535	133	.249	26	71	19	84	1/O
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	16		12		19		29
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	17		13		19		25

While he didn't reach the statistical heights that many expected from him, Dunn produced very nice numbers for someone who saw only 350 at-bats in the upper minors. Of course, slipping from a .996 first-half OPS to a .692 after the break certainly qualifies as troubling. The good news is he posted a better OPS against lefties at .906 than against right-handers at .829, so it seems only a matter of time before Dunn matures into a regular contributor of a .900+ OPS against any pitcher. As he improved from a 4.12 #P/PA in 2001 to a 4.28 this year, he boosted his walk rate from .16 to a fantastic .24. His G-F ratio increased by about 25% over the two years, but I'm not concerned about his SLG. The problem here is a .68 contact rate, which is approaching .10 below his regular minor league numbers. There's no evidence he can overcome his strikeout problem in the near future, leaving Dunn as a solid four-category performer worth a little over $20, instead of the $40 superstar we'll see in a few years if his contact rate approaches .80.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brad Wilkerson		507	135	.266	20	59	7	92	1/O
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	13		10		14		7
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	14		11		14		4

Wilkerson consistently posted a .370+ OBP throughout his three years in the minors, so managing a .370 in the majors while establishing himself as a quality leadoff man doesn't surprise me at all. He saw 4.27 #P/PA and compiled a flat 1.00 G-F, indicating excellent patience and solid power potential; combined with his .16 walk rate, he should continue developing into a very helpful top-of-the-order hitter. A .68 contact rate, nearly identical to Adam Dunn's mark, suggests Wilkerson will encounter slumps, but he performed rather consistently aside from a terrible September. I'm also troubled by his 47% SB success rate, although that mark only indicates that we're not likely to see an increased SB output from him. Whether you need a 1B or OF, Wilkerson's a solid buy around $15, and his good OBP increases his value in sim leagues.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Karros		524	142	.271	13	73	4	52	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		6		9
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	11		9		7		11

The first of five consecutive Dodger winners of the NL Rookie of the Year, Karros was the last to leave Los Angeles when he accepted a trade to the Cubs. Now he'll spend next season receiving significant abuse from Cubs' fans for blocking the progress of Hee Seop Choi. Karros' G-F ratio jumped from .66 in 2000 to .95 last year before reaching a career-worst 1.36 in 2002. His .07 walk rate and 3.62 #P/PA are among the worst marks of his career and both 2002 skills are at their lowest level in a decade. The one intriguing piece of news is his .86 contact rate, a level he hadn't reached since 1994 and the sole reason his BA bounced back over .250. Due to the obvious playing time questions and diminishing power, you should not exceed single-digits when bidding on Karros, however I can see him turning a slight profit as long as you can snag him for a couple bucks short of $10. Even if he doesn't deserve to bat against any right-handers, I suspect most everyone reading this is aware of Dusty Baker's unfounded allegiance to aged veterans and will adjust Karros' projected at-bats accordingly.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tino Martinez		511	134	.262	21	75	3	63	1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	11		9		12		18
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	12		9		12		15

While Tino's quantitative numbers largely plummeted away from New York, the American League, and the Designated Hitter, he still owns a relatively decent collection of skills. Although his career-worst 3.52 #P/PA continues a four-year trend of decreasing patience, his 1.05 G-F was slightly better than his 1.14 mark in 2001. More importantly, Martinez's walk rate increased from .07 to .11 and his contact rate nudged upwards to .86 from a .85 the previous season. There's nothing special or overly impressive about Tino's skills, but he's still a competent first basemen who merits a double-digit bid in standard leagues due to his consistent production.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Lee		536	142	.265	13	70	5	55	1
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	10		8		12		15
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	11		8		13		13

Boston will try Jeremy Giambi at first and few people realize that Matt Franco was a very solid addition to the Braves, so the only teams with obvious first base openings are Montreal and Los Angeles, and the latter will make every attempt to find a productive veteran. After tomorrow's likely non-tendering of Lee and Brian Daubach, they'll fight with Fred McGriff, Tony Clark, and Lee Stevens for one of these two available starting jobs. Lee's best course of action involves calling Omar Minaya and begging for the first base job before Tony Clark thinks of the same idea. As Lee only turns 28 next May, I'm not completely concerned that his skills all appear in free fall, and while he's not even worth a million-dollar salary right now, he should rebound in a low-pressure environment. Keep your bids under double digits and you might see a tiny profit.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mo Vaughn		487	126	.259	26	72	0	67	1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	10		8		14		23
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	11		9		14		21

Although Maurice struggled upon joining a National League team for the first time, his OPS was only about 60 points below his two seasons in Anaheim. All of his main skill ratios were almost identical to his 2000 season, so his overall production didn't fall to an unexpected level. Vaughn lacks consistency and upside, and I doubt you can acquire him for the $10 or so that these numbers suggest, however I wouldn't be surprised if he pushes above $15 due to better familiarity with the league and a potential resurgence of parts of the Mets' lineup.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of the 44 National Leaguers who qualify at first base, only Helton, Albert Pujols, Sexson, and McGriff posted 100 or more RBI. First basemen still account for a quarter (4/16) of all NL players who accomplished that feat in 2002, however the total number of National Leaguers with 100+ RBI fell from 25 in 2001 to 16 this year. Six NL 1B reached that level in 2001, so the percentage of first sackers out of the total of 100+ RBI players essentially remained the same. Therefore, while this traditional power position seems to be falling by this primary quantitative standard, NL first basemen are merely matching the trend we observe over the rest of the league, leaving you with no more reason to target a top 1B than you possessed a year ago.