Today's Fantasy Rx

American League First Basemen with Draft Value under $6

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Johnson		378	92	.243	15	58	1	56	1/D
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	5		4		17		13
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		5		18		13

Whether due to his slow development, inability to stay healthy for a full year, or a poor .618 OPS against left-handers, Johnson doesn't seem likely to stay with New York much longer as they're actively searching for a replacement DH, and we've already seen rumors that they've signed Todd Zeile. Although Johnson isn't the consistent $20+ earner many people expected based on his AA performance in 1999, he won't turn 25 until next September and most of his skills look rather solid. A .13 walk rate, 4.11 #P/PA, and 1.23 G-F are all what we'd expect from someone frequently compared to Don Mattingly and Mark Grace, however he's not even managing the .79 contact rate he displayed back in '99. He still looks likely to reach double-digit value next season if he stays healthy, so his new team should be pleased with acquiring him, and regardless of where he lands, I'd be happy to remain in the bidding up to $10 or so.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Offerman		284	66	.232	5	31	9	48	1/D
BOS/SEA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	4		3		4		R
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	5		4		4		3

Offerman should be a nice sleeper if he breaks camp with a team since he still owns a little speed and solid plate discipline. He's not too old at 34 to see a mild rebound in value, although his lack of position flexibility reduces his usefulness to fantasy teams. I'd probably wait until Dollar Days to bid on him even if makes a team, but you also should feel no trepidation about using him as roster filler at any time since his BA looks set to return above the league average.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Olmedo Saenz		156	43	.276	6	18	1	15	1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		-1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	3		2		-1		1

Saenz possesses decent patience and good power, as well the ability to regularly post a .900+ OPS against left-handed pitching. He probably would succeed if awarded a full-time starting job, although I'd be shocked if any team gave him that opportunity. We can't depend on a decent batting average from him due to questionable plate discipline, however he's a good gamble if you need power when he's in the majors.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Leon		89	22	.247	3	10	1	8	1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	0		0

As he possesses little plate discipline, unremarkable power, and the skill to only field first or third base, Leon does not appear a logical candidate to spend much more time in the majors. He posted a .279/.319/.413 in 312 at-bats at AAA Rochester this year, and his 2.12 G-F while in the majors emphasizes his lack of power. Although he's not a bad choice as roster filler, I don't consider Leon draftworthy given his current abilities.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Liefer		204	47	.230	7	26	0	28	1/O
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		0		5		2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	1		1		5		8

Liefer continues to clamor for more playing time, but Chicago looks very unlikely to either start or trade him since they like their current lineup and don't want to deal their best left-handed bat. Right-handers held him to a .649 OPS in 2002, so I'm concerned that his stats will remain stagnant if he stays in a back-up role, however his skills don't warrant many more at-bats. A 3.75 #P/PA is decent, but his G-F jumped from .86 in 2001 to 1.40 this year, illustrating why his homers dropped from 18 to 7. Without any hint of improvement in his walk or contact rates, Liefer's only worth a draft day gamble of a couple bucks.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Diaz		7	2	.286	1	2	0	2	1/D
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Boston Prospects for comments on Diaz.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Sears		12	4	.333	0	0	0	2	1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Minnesota Prospects for comments on Sears.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Clay Bellinger		1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-2
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-2		-1		-2

In one of the best hitters' parks in baseball at AAA Salt Lake, Bellinger compiled a .256/.289/.450 this year in 324 at-bats, along with a 13:87 BB:K ratio. His career rates of 3.82 #P/PA and .60 G-F indicate decent patience and power, but he lacks the contact ability to take advantage of either. As he's never batted above .207 in a season even while earning 2 World Series rings for the Yankees, I can't envision any reason to own him on a fantasy team. I'd love to see a fight between Bellinger, Rafael Belliard, and Lucky the Leprechaun to finally prove who has the most luck (or the best agent) in the world.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chan Perry		11	1	.091	0	3	0	0	1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on Perry.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Earl Snyder		55	11	.200	1	4	0	5	1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Snyder.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Larry Sutton		19	2	.105	1	3	0	3	1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-2

Acquiring John Mabry made even less sense after you look at Sutton's minor league numbers. While Sacramento's an excellent hitters' park, he displayed great plate discipline at AAA by posting a .292/.417/.478 with a 93:108 BB:K in 431 AB. I'd love to see him get a long look at 1B or DH since he seems perfectly able to compile numbers superior to someone like Scott Hatteberg, but Sutton doesn't appear likely to see too many more chances. However if you need roster filler or a guy with decent upside when he's in the majors, I feel quite comfortable in trusting Sutton's stats from the minors rather than his very unimpressive major league history.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan McGuire		26	2	.077	0	2	0	0	1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-3		-2		-2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-2		-1

McGuire's now spent parts of each of the last six seasons in the majors, and while he's a patient hitter, he simply doesn't make enough contact to earn any extended time above AAA. I don't see him contributing to fantasy teams in the foreseeable future.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Lesher		38	5	.132	0	2	0	2	1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:L	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-2

Although Lesher's mostly pounded the ball at AAA for the last seven years, he hasn't displayed the plate discipline or upside necessary for a regular job in the majors. Lesher possesses the power and patience to post decent numbers if given an extended look, but I don't envision him as a viable fantasy contributor in any role other than roster filler.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Clark		275	57	.207	3	29	0	25	1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		11		20
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-2		12		18

Clark posted one of the more disappointing seasons in memory and was one of the most significant factors in keeping the Red Sox out of the Wild Card. Perhaps the biggest shock here is that he never actually went on the disabled list, but a couple nagging injuries still contributed to this disaster. Fortunately we saw most of his skills return to his career levels, so the only noticeable problem was that his walk rate remains at only .08. Clark's 2003 performance depends entirely on the amount of playing time he finds with his new team. If he can convince the Royals to let him DH, then we might see a 30/100 season. However if he only winds up as a back-up somewhere like Tampa Bay or Atlanta, then I'd be hesitant to gamble more than a couple bucks on him. He definitely qualifies as a sleeper, but it's too early in the off-season to accurately predict his 2003 value.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers opens tonight at midnight, and while we have very high expectations, we'd be shocked if it didn't at least match the quality of the first film. If you're planning on seeing this movie in the near future and haven't had the chance to either see The Fellowship of the Ring or read the books, my recommendation is that you just see the first picture. There's an incredible amount of material in the book, and since they needed to modify aspects of the story to avoid making a 10-hour movie, last year's film will give you all the background you require to enjoy The Two Towers to the fullest.

Since Spiderman was such a complete disappointment, I'll make certain to post a note in tomorrow's article if we see any vital reason to avoid this movie.