Today's Fantasy Rx

American League First Basemen with Positive Draft Value over $5

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Giambi		560	176	.314	41	122	2	120	1/D
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	31		24		31		36
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	32		24		30		34

While Giambi finished as the 10th best AL position player, I'm surprised that only one first baseman ended the year among the top 10; 2B Alfonso Soriano, three shortstops(ARod, Jeter, & Tejada), and five outfielders(Ichiro, Mags, Beltran, Bernie, and Winn) all bested Giambi, Sweeney, and Thome. Of course, aside from a slow start(.834 April OPS) and August slump(.792 OPS), Jason held an OPS over 1.100 in every month. He suffers from no significant platoon splits, and even though his 2002 fell behind his previous two years in most categories, both his 4.20 #P/PA and .70 G-F qualify as career-bests. Unfortunately, his walk rate has fallen from .27 in 2000 to .25 last year to .19 in 2002, and his contact rate descended to a career-low .80 this season after a jump from .81 to .84 over the previous two years. Given these trends, I don't envision him returning to a .320+ BA in 2003, although all his quantitative numbers should remain intact; expect him to post very similar numbers next season.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Sweeney		471	160	.340	24	86	9	81	1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	31		24		35		30
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	30		22		32		29

Sweeney should explore free agency at the end of 2003 since the Royals look unlikely to meet the win totals necessary to keep him in Kansas City, leaving us with much the same situation as we saw in Philadelphia with Rolen, except minus the incendiary rhetoric of Dallas Green. He only played in 126 games this year due to back pain, but he still displayed excellent skills when healthy, including a 1.33 BB:K and 3.67 #P/PA, both career-bests. He's capable of a .350/30/150 in the right environment, however he seems very unlikely to reach those numbers given the likely composition of the Royals' lineup. I envision him changing teams mid-season barring a rather unlikely development, and when coupled with the approaching departure of Carlos Beltran, these moves should send the Royals to last place for a few years. While Sweeney's certainly a good target if bidding halts in the mid-$30s, there's no reason to overbid without a breakout in sight.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jim Thome		480	146	.304	52	118	1	101	1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	29		22		18		24
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	29		22		19		25

The Phillies' biggest free agent acquisition in over two decades should see a short-term boost in value thanks to the presence of Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell near him in the lineup, a welcome upgrade from his most recent Indians' support of Ellis Burks and Matt Lawton. He only managed an .894 OPS in April, so you might want to see if his owner tires of the likely slow start, but given the media attention directed at Thome's slow starts, I'm not sure he'll be available in trade under most circumstances. Thome may be exercising less patience at the plate than he's displayed in a decade, but the combination of a career-best .88 BB:K and .78 G-F indicates he's simply crushing the pitches at which he swings. Even if 2002 stands as his career year, I think he'll easily manage $30 or more in value over the next couple of years, making him one of the best targets for any owner seeking an impressive power boost.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Konerko		570	173	.304	27	104	0	81	1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	24		18		20		24
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	23		18		20		24

As Konerko finished the season with remarkably similar numbers to his previous campaign, we still can't expect a breakout as he heads into his age-27 season. He slipped to a .734 OPS in the second half after he destroyed his swing in the Home Run Derby, and he regularly hits worse against lefties than right-handers. Konerko's .08 walk rate is his worst mark as a starter, but he managed a career-best .87 contact rate, suggesting he could hold a .300 BA. With no power spike in sight, expect him to finish another season with a draft value around $25.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Raul Ibanez		497	146	.294	24	103	5	70	1/O/D
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	22		17		3		3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	21		16		3		2

I don't believe any player surprised me like Raul Ibanez in 2002, and his performance gives Kansas City a surprisingly potent heart-of-the-order in Beltran-Sweeney-Ibanez. Of course, his numbers really shouldn't shock me given his .469 career slugging percentage in the majors and a .495 SLG in 2001, essentially making these quantitative totals the result of increased playing time. Left-handers held him to a .694 OPS, so he needs platooning, but he racked 23 homers and 80 RBI in 373 AB against righties, so he can remain around $20 even if he sits against every lefty. Though June, July, and August accounted for the vast majority of his value, his second half OPS only fell 11 points below his mark before the All-Star break. Even though his batting average seems a little high given his .08 walk rate and .85 contact rate, Ibanez should take advantage of the great hitters' environment in Kansas City to roughly repeat these numbers, and you should be able to grab him for less than $20.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aubrey Huff		454	142	.313	23	59	4	67	1/D
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	21		16		1		5
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	20		16		1		7

Huff's season is even more impressive when you consider he spent all of April and much of May in the minors, where he compiled a .325/.386/.468 with a 12:13 BB:K in 126 at-bats. The most surprising aspect of his stats after his promotion was a power surge, and a drop in his G-F rate from 2.04 to 1.31 this season suggests he can maintain this added production. His walk rate increased from .06 to .08, and his contact rate jumped from .82 to .88. Considering he crushed the ball in a similar fashion at every level of the minors, there's no reason to expect Huff won't remain one of the top half-dozen roto first baseman in the American League.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rafael Palmeiro		546	149	.273	43	105	2	99	1/D
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	21		16		20		25
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	22		17		20		23

Palmeiro continues to work towards a likely Hall of Fame berth as one of the most consistent sluggers in the game over the course of his career. Although his platoon split is growing, a .780 OPS against lefties is fairly acceptable, especially since the several right-handed power hitters in the Texas lineup largely prevent opponents from using a lefty specialist more than once a game. He's now displaying superb discipline by compiling career-bests of a 4.02 #P/PA and .48 G-F, and even though both his .19 walk rate and .83 contact rate are down from 2001, there's nothing particularly bad about either mark. Palmeiro's no longer a .300 hitter, but he should continue to reach the 40/100 level as long as he stays healthy.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Olerud		553	166	.300	22	102	0	85	1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	21		16		16		20
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	21		16		16		18

Keeping Olerud in Seattle was vital for the Mariners as they really lacked any viable alternative at first base and since he just completed one of the best seasons of his career. They should receive similar production over the next two years. He slumped to an .803 OPS after the break, and left-handers generally hold him to a sub-.800 OPS, but I don't view either split as troublesome given his high level of batting skill. Olerud remains one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball, and while none of his 2002 skill ratios qualify as career-best marks, the combination of a .18 walk rate, .88 contact rate, 3.88 #P/PA, and 1.16 G-F make him someone you want to own. You won't see much profit if you exceed $20 for him, however you're also very unlikely to see any loss on a $20 bid.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Delgado		505	140	.277	33	108	1	103	1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	19		15		20		30
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	20		15		21		28

Delgado's 2000 season looks out of place with every other season of his career, but I still think he's due for one more surge sometime in the next three years. Toronto has started surrounding him with several quality hitters in Eric Hinske, Vernon Wells, and Josh Phelps, so he'll remain the anchor of one of the most potent developing lineups in baseball. His G-F dropped from 1.12 to .77, indicating he'll climb back towards 40 homers in 2003, and while his .75 contact rate will keep his BA below .300, he appears good for another 100+ runs and RBI. Although he won't reach $30 next year, a bid in the mid-$20s looks like a nice investment.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brad Fullmer		429	124	.289	19	59	10	75	1/D
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	18		14		19		14
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	18		14		18		14

Fullmer should reach $20 or more next year if he remains in his current role, but if Anaheim non-tenders him on Friday, then his 2003 value obviously depends on the amount of playing time he finds with his new team. The biggest problem Fullmer faces is that he'd benefit from a platoon mate, since he only managed a .222/.231/.365 in 63 AB against left-handers, along with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 10 runs. Fortunately Fullmer's skills look relatively solid as he reached career-bests of a .73 BB:K and .70 G-F, and significant improvement in his steals, SB%, and triples suggest his baserunning abilities are improving rapidly. A .290/30/100/15/80 season doesn't look unreasonable depending on where he bats in the order, so definitely target Fullmer at any price under $20.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Randall Simon		482	145	.301	19	82	0	51	1/D
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	18		14		7		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	17		13		7

Detroit stole a couple of nice prospects for Simon from Pittsburgh, a surprising development when he seemed like a logical non-tender considering the Tigers' depth at 1B and DH. Now Simon's slotted to platoon with Kevin Young but batting in the #5 hole behind Brian Giles and Aramis Ramirez when he's in the lineup. The platoon makes sense given Simon's .599 OPS against lefties, so we might see a .300 BA here if the Pirates limit his at-bats against southpaws. While most owners remember Simons 1.071 April OPS, he actually performed noticeably better after the break; I'm more concerned about his .663 OPS away from Comerica. Simon's obnoxiously terrible 2.72 #P/PA makes him about the least patient batter in the majors, and although his contact rate rose to .94 from .89, his walk rate fell from .06 to .03, rendering him useless to his team if his contact rate ever slips. A $20 return on your investment wouldn't surprise me, but Simon looks more likely to slip to around $10 given the amount of downside in the skills of this remarkably undisciplined hitter.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Conine		451	123	.273	15	63	8	44	1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		11		12		14
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	13		10		12		12

Conine actually contributed more to a fantasy team in his steals than in any other category, however he turns 37 next June and seems to suffer from an assortment of injuries each season. Baltimore also needs to provide playing time for Jay Gibbons and Chris Richard, along with accommodating veterans like Marty Cordova and David Segui, and the Orioles only can start four of them on daily basis. While Conine doesn't suffer from a severe platoon split, his .755 OPS is quite poor for a 1B/DH, and Baltimore's new front office team likely will look to move him. His only skill growth in 2002 occurred in his baserunning as he stole 8 bases without getting caught once, but between his lack of power and limited position flexibility, I wouldn't be comfortable bidding into double-digits for Conine.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Hatteberg		492	138	.280	15	61	0	58	1/D
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	12		9		9		6
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	12		9		10		5

Hatteberg's usefulness rapidly drops now that he no longer qualifies at catcher, but since he'll remain starting for the A's unless they trade for someone like Mike Sweeney, his playing time should basically stay the same for another year. His .88 contact rate, 4.15 #P/PA and 1.24 G-F all rank as the second-best marks of his career, and a .14 walk rate suggests he has the potential to hit .300. While I don't see significant power upside here, Hatteberg's value could continue rising in 2003, and I'd be happy to roster him for anything under double-digits.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Daubach		444	118	.266	20	78	2	62	1/O/D
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	12		9		10		7
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	12		9		10		7

Boston's acquisition of Jeremy Giambi virtually guarantees the Red Sox will non-tender Daubach this weekend. Of course, Daubach's still a solid hitter who's reached at least 20 HR and 70 RBI in each of the last four seasons. We saw a slight increase in his plate patience to 4.05 #P/PA, although all of his other skills were off his previous year's marks. While there's no spike coming in his production, Daubach will continue to earn around $10 as long as he remains a starter.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Steve Cox		560	142	.254	16	72	5	65	1/D
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	10		8		12		13
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	10		8		12		12

Cox still has nice roto upside, but we won't have the chance to own him for the next year or two after Tampa solid him to Japan. Although he only managed a .778 OPS against right-handers, and his .589 OPS against southpaws merits benching, his G-F ratio dropped from 1.61 to 1.19 in 2002, so he was primed to finally reach 20 homers next season. Consequently, expect him to reach about 30 homers in Japan for each of the next couple of years until some sabermetrically-inclined team brings him back here.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jay Gibbons		490	121	.247	28	69	1	71	1/O
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	9		7		5		10
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	10		8		6		10

Gibbons posted a .508 SLG against right-handers, so he'll probably reach 30 homers in 2003 even if Baltimore continues to platoon him. His .92 G-F gives him superior power potential to most youngsters in the game, and simultaneous increases in both his walk rate(.08 '01; .09 '02) and contact rate(.82 '01; .87 '02) suggest his batting average will continue rising. Since he's also about the youngest player on the Orioles with much upside, I don't have any concern about playing time issues, and you'll see a nice profit if you can grab him in single-digits.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Doug Mientkiewicz		467	122	.261	10	64	1	60	1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		6		16		16
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	8		6		16		13

Although Mientkiewicz only posted a .678 OPS away from the Metrodome, his batting average should climb back up to .300 as his walk rate rose from .12 to .16 and his contact rate increased from .82 to .85. With his primary batting skills improving and a G-F rate that's fallen to .86 after a season at 1.08, I see no reason why he won't push $20 in 2003.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeremy Giambi		313	81	.259	20	45	0	58	1/O
OAK/PHI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	7		6		16		12
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	8		6		16		15

Giambi's not someone we'd want in our roto league, but his move to Boston and a nearly guaranteed full-time job make him one of the best 2003 targets in the game. His .25 walk rate, 4.52 #P/PA, and .89 G-F all rank as career-best marks, and while his .70 contact rate is a problem, he owned a .75 contact rate while playing everyday for Oakland. He against posted better numbers than his brother at the same age, and I'll be quite surprised if he doesn't develop into one of the best fantasy first baseman in baseball next season. Happily bid up to $20, and unless you're desperate for speed, feel free to add a couple extra bucks since I could see him exceeding the value of established stars like Palmeiro and Delgado.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Lamb		314	89	.283	9	33	0	54	1/D
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		5				6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	8		6				9

He'll probably enter 2003 as Texas' primary utilityman, so I can envision him seeing time at first, third, outfield, and catcher by the end of April, making him extremely intriguing in leagues with one-game in-season position qualification. As Lamb displayed decent plate discipline and good power potential in the minors, his performance over the last two seasons reinforces our perception of him as a quality back-up. Lamb posted career-best marks of a .11 walk rate, 3.89 #P/PA and 1.18 G-F, so he's even demonstrating enough skill to warrant another look as a starter. I can't imagine he'll cost more than a couple of bucks late in the draft, making Lamb one of the best players available when you're looking to purchase a cheap reserve with impressive upside.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Pena		397	96	.242	19	52	2	43	1
OAK/DET		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	6		5		12		16
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		5		12		15

Pena normally starts slowly at each new level, so I'm still quite surprised that Oakland let him go after only a few weeks audition. Even though Comerica reduces his value, we know he'll both start and bat relatively high in the order regardless of his performance, especially since Detroit realizes he's proven himself at AAA. His 4.03 #P/PA and .85 G-F were excellent marks for any rookie, although neither his .10 walk rate nor .72 contact rate impresses me, and the latter mark definitely concerns me. Pena might need another season or two before his BA heads much over the league average, although he looks like a sure bet to reach 25 homers and 80 RBI. Target him exclusively for power, and hope your fellow owners avoid him since he's generally considered a significant disappointment even though his final 2002 stats didn't look too bad.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I plan on discussing both sections of the Rule 5 draft from a fantasy perspective over the next few days. If you have any questions about the draft or the players chosen, please send me your queries and I'll look to incorporate them into my review.