Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Third Basemen with Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Albert Pujols		590	185	.314	34	127	2	118	3/1/O
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	31		23		22		29
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	30		23		22		28

Even if we discover the rumors of Pujols' advanced age are true, he's still posted perhaps the best two-season debut in history. A drop of 58 points of OPS isn't unexpected given a rise in his G-F from 1.09 to 1.27 and a decline in his #P/PA from 4.02 to 3.74. He still managed extremely similar quantitative production, and more importantly his batting skills improved from a .117 walk rate and .84 contact rate to a .122 walk rate and .88 contact rate. Overall, Pujols is nicely positioned to continue performing among the top 10 NL position players for both the Cardinals and your fantasy teams, and as he continues to qualify at third base, first base, and the outfield, his flexibility increases his utility to most teams.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aaron Boone		606	146	.241	26	87	32	83	3
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	21		16		14		19
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	20		15		14		16

Boone's 32 steals account for over half of his value, so his chances for exceeding $20 again depend almost entirely on his ability to continue demonstrating his baserunning ability. Reportedly Boone's defensive flexibility might allow his manager dad to move him to either middle infield position, so his utility might increase by the end of April depending on the Reds' other offseason moves. His poor .314 OBP means he needs to stay in the bottom half of the order instead of the #2 hole where he spent much of 2002, but he also stole a comparable number of bases while hitting fifth and sixth to when he batted second. Hopefully he'll build upon his .812 OPS in the second half, but he didn't really display markedly improved skills in any area. The big reason for Boone's increase in value was his 606 at-bats, nearly 30% more than any other season of his career. We can't expect him to match that level of playing time given his injury history, so definitely let him go if bidding exceeds the high teens.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgardo Alfonzo		490	151	.308	16	56	6	78	3
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	20		15		16		20
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	19		15		16		20

If he's truly over his back problems, then Alfonzo might wind up as the best free agent signing of the winter considering his ability to play second, third, and short, as well as the fact he possesses a consistently excellent OBP. Between his .921 second half OPS and noticeable jumps in both his walk and contact rates, Alfonzo seems primed for a career year, especially since he'll be leaving a great pitchers' park. As he reached $20 on the rebound from injury troubles and batting leadoff in a terrible offense, we could see a nice jump in every category depending on his new team and new manager's willingness to let him steal. I'd have no problem at least bidding into the mid-$20s for him.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Rolen		580	154	.266	31	110	8	89	3
PHI/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		15		19		29
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	19		15		19		25

The two strongest NL third basemen both reside in St. Louis, and Rolen's performance after joining the Cardinals, including a .915 OPS and 44 RBI in 55 games, suggests he might return to the Hall of Fame path everyone expected he'd follow once he reached the majors in Philadelphia. A career-best .82 contact rate indicates his BA should rebound to around .300, which would boost his value well above $20. Rolen turns 28 on April 4th, and seems likely to reach career-highs in several categories given his skill trends and the RBI upside of hitting behind Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Lowell		597	165	.276	24	92	4	88	3
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	17		13		14		16
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	18		14		14		16

Lowell's 2003 roto potential appears largely dependent upon where he bats in the lineup. With Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, Andy Fox, and Mike Redmond expected to start most days for Florida, along with limited production from Juan Encarnacion, as well as Eric Owens if Kevin Millar is traded, Lowell and Derrek Lee won't see too many RBI opportunities. At least his career-high marks of a 3.81 #P/PA and .11 walk rate demonstrate developing patience, so while Lowell seems unlikely to reach the 25/100 level of production, we expect him to essentially repeat most of his 2002 numbers next season.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Placido Polanco		548	158	.288	9	49	5	75	3
STL/PHI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		10		14		13
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	14		11		14		10

Polanco's BA boosts his value far above what we'd otherwise expect, but if he steals a few more bases in 2003, we could see him approach $20 in standard leagues. His career-high .93 contact rate combines with a drop from 2.31 to 1.86 G-F to give him double-digit HR potential in 2003, and if he bats ahead of Jim Thome, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu, he could reach 100 runs for the first time. He's an even more attractive buy if your league allows conditional position eligibility since he's expected to move back to second base next year. I doubt he'll go for much more than $10 in many leagues, making Polanco a solid target for anyone looking for a very good BA boost and helpful contributions in every quantitative category.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Zeile		506	138	.273	18	87	1	61	3
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	13		10		13		13
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	13		10		13		15

Spending a season in Colorado allowed Zeile to reach double-digit value for likely the last time. He only reached a .692 OPS in the second half and a .644 OPS away from Coors. While his career-best 4.31 #P/PA demonstrates excellent patience, his G-F fell from 1.38 to 1.79 in 2002, effectively reducing his HR potential outside of Coors to single-digits. I expect he'll wind up overpriced in nearly every league, and I wouldn't be comfortable bidding into the high single-digits even if he signs with a team that's expected to let him start.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adrian Beltre		587	151	.257	21	75	7	70	3
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		19		22
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	13		10		18		19

Beltre continues to demonstrate considerable potential since he's now spent over four full years in the majors and he won't turn 24 until the first week of the 2003 season. His .828 OPS in the second half indicates he's finally recovered from a botched appendectomy two years ago, and he also stole five bases in six attempts after the Break. Unfortunately his plate discipline hasn't approached his 2000 levels, so while a career-high .99 G-F suggests better power potential, I don't expect a breakout season until at least 2004. I don't expect you to see a profit on Beltre unless you can buy him below the high teens.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Phil Nevin		407	116	.285	12	57	4	53	3/1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		20		28
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	12		9		20		27

Nevin's either moving to right field to accommodate Sean Burroughs or moving out of town if the Padres can find a team, likely on the west coast, to which Nevin won't veto a trade. Even though he only missed two months of the season on the DL, his numbers remained terrible in his 400 at-bats because of the problems with his left arm. He sprained an elbow ligament in mid-May, and then fractured his shoulder only a couple days after returning at the end of the month. A jump in his contact rate from .73 to .79 suggest his power should return next year, however his plate discipline deteriorated, making a rebound to his 1999 stats of .269/24/85 seem more reasonable than a return to his All-Star numbers of 2000 and 2001. Nevin's one of the riskier third base picks due to his uncertain future in San Diego.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Counsell		436	123	.282	2	51	7	63	3
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	10		8		5		4
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	11		8		6		3

A bulging disc in his neck forced Counsell out for the season in the middle of August, although successful September surgery should see Counsell back in the starting lineup for Arizona on Opening Day. He'll likely resume leading off while spelling Junior Spivey, Tony Womack, and Matt Williams at their respective infield positions. While his .88 contact rate was a nice improvement from a .83 in 2001, none of Counsell's other skills displayed significant growth. I'll be surprised if he returns to this level of value in 2003, and you likely should look elsewhere for infield help since he doesn't provide a significant boost in any particular category and possesses little power potential.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Bell		552	144	.261	20	73	1	82	3
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		8		6		7
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	11		9		6		4

Philadelphia's freshly minted starting third baseman, Bell looks likely to decline fairly rapidly before his four-year deal expires but he remains an excellent short-term buy. He'll hit in the lower half of the lineup, and the fifth place hitter, probably either Jim Thome or Bobby Abreu, should be on base rather often when Bell bats, giving him more RBI opportunities than he saw while batting behind Reggie Sanders and J.T. Snow in San Francisco. Moving out of the second-best pitchers' park in baseball will allow him to improve most of his numbers. Most importantly, a .10 walk rate is the best mark of his career, and with his other skills still largely intact, we could see Bell's value climb to no lower than the mid-teens in 2003.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The only NL third baseman that own uncontested starting jobs with little risk of involvement in a trade are Philadelphia's David Bell, Pittsburgh's Aramis Ramirez, and St. Louis' Scott Rolen. Adrian Beltre in Los Angeles and Sean Burroughs in San Diego also are likely to remain at their current posts, but the starting third base jobs on at least 10 NL teams remain largely undecided. This uncertainty is likely to prevail through much of the off-season, especially for teams like Houston and Milwaukee that should see Spring Training battles, so if you're looking for 3B help in keeper leagues, you might have better luck by just waiting to see if you can find a bargain in the draft.