Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Third Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Chavez		585	161	.275	34	109	8	87	3
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	23		18		19		29
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	23		17		19		30

His numbers would look far more impressive if Art Howe hadn't left him batting fifth or sixth in the majority of his at-bats. Lefties also continue to own Chavez, holding him to a .623 OPS, compared to the .950 he posted against right-handers. However he's showing signs of an impending breakout. He compiled a career-best .74 G-F, a sharp drop from his 1.18 in 2001 and indicative of a power peak, and a career-high 3.81 #P/PA demonstrates his developing patience. Neither his .11 walk rate nor .80 contact rate are too impressive, but given his power potential and the likelihood of increased RBI opportunities due to his now-established position batting behind Miguel Tejada, Chavez should reach career-highs in all power categories in 2003. Also remember that he just turned 25 last Saturday, so he could post a season or two of 40 homers before jumping to 50 or more in a few more years. Unfortunately I can't see him exceeding $30 in 2003, and I can't imagine many leagues where you could grab him in the $20s.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Hinske		566	158	.279	24	84	13	99	3
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	22		17		14		8
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	23		17		15		11

While most of the best AL third basemen seem bunched fairly close together, this reigning AL Rookie of the Year is four months older than Eric Chavez and possesses close to three seasons less of major league experience than the A's third sacker. Of course, Hinske possesses an impressive assortment of skill ratios, including a 1.04 G-F, 3.91 #P/PA, .14 walk rate, and even a 93% SB success rate. The problem is a .76 contact rate, and his production will remain limited to some extent until he starts avoiding more strikeouts. Hinske shows all the signs of a breakout in the near future, but with only a .632 OPS against lefties, his immediate goal should be to improve to the point where Toronto won't mind not platooning him. There's sufficient immediate downside here where I wouldn't want to bid much over $20, although if Hinske's available in long-term keeper leagues, he still has a very bright future even if he suffers a mild sophomore slump.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shea Hillenbrand		634	186	.293	18	83	4	94	3
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	21		16		3		4
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	21		16		4		2

I will be fairly stupefied if Hillenbrand finishes as the third best AL third baseman in 2003. Around half his value derives from the combination of the best batting average of any AL third baseman with a dozen or more RBI and 633 at-bats, almost 50 more than Tony Batista, who finished second among AL 3B in AB. Now Boston's wisely shopping Hillenbrand while his value is at a probable peak. Although he doesn't face the severe platoon split of Chavez and Hinske, the only sustainable growth in Hillenbrand's skills appears to be an improvement from 3.24 to 3.52 #P/PA. Without any guarantee that he can maintain a BA above .260, I wouldn't bid above the low double-digits for Hillenbrand, and considering his wide media following, you shouldn't mind losing him to another owner.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Troy Glaus		569	142	.250	30	111	10	99	3
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	17		13		15		30
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	18		14		17		27

Glaus' low BA left him fourth in fantasy value among AL third basemen even though he led the group in all the quantitative roto power categories. Both his 3.97 #P/PA and .94 G-F qualify as the worst marks of his career, and his only real skill growth was in his contact rate, which slightly improved, reaching a career-high .75. With his total extra-base hits also reaching a four-year low, there's no reason to expect Glaus to earn even $20 given his current skills.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Spiezio		491	140	.285	12	82	6	80	3/1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	16		12		4		7
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	17		13		5		8

Thanks to Spiezio playing exactly 20 games at third base, there's essentially no difference in his overall roto value and that of Glaus; Spiezio just helped more in BA while Glaus contributed better power numbers. Like Glaus, Spiezio mashes lefties without dominating right-handers, so his upside remains somewhat limited. However, Spiezio's always possessed good power potential, and he managed a career-high .14 walk rate this year. As he also posted a career-high .89 contact rate, Spiezio's BA should continue increasing, and his value easily could exceed $20 next year. If you're going to target an Angels' third baseman in 2003, unless you're desperate for pure power numbers, show as much or more interest in Spiezio as Glaus.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Herbert Perry		450	124	.276	22	77	4	64	3
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	15		12		5		R
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	15		11		5		1

Perry does not possess any notable platoon splits, so the only significant differences between 2002 and 2000, the only other year he found more than 400 at-bats, were slightly increased skills across the board and an extra three dozen at-bats. A .85 contact rate gave him the extra hits necessary to reach these roto marks, and now the biggest obstacle to him repeating these numbers in 2003 is the need for playing time for Hank Blalock and then Mark Teixeira. Gambling a few bucks on Perry is quite safe since he at least should find the at-bats necessary to earn $5 or more, and he'll reach double-digit value if Texas gives him more than 300 at-bats.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Corey Koskie		490	131	.267	15	69	10	71	3
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	15		11		23		26
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	15		11		21		25

While Koskie recovered from a bone bruise in his wrist during Spring Training, he missed two weeks with a strained hamstring in May, contributing to a fall in his SB success rate from 82% to 48%. If he hadn't struggled to post a .485 OPS in August, Koskie could have finished among the top five AL third baseman. While I'm concerned about his drop from a .79 contact rate to a troublesome .74, he posted a career-best 4.04 #P/PA, which helped his walk rate rise from .12 to .15. Koskie also sustained growing power potential for the second year in a row by compiling a 1.06 G-F. As long as his strikeouts don't continue increasing, Koskie looks set for a strong rebound in all the power categories, and he even could approach 20 steals. I can't envision letting him go for less than $20, so if his price is even slightly discounted, snap him up at your draft.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Randa		549	155	.282	11	80	2	63	3
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		11		13		10
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	14		11		13		13

About half of Randa's value consistently rests in his BA contribution, so if Kansas City trades him to a much less hitter-friendly park like Shea, he'll struggle to reach double-digit value. Randa neither demonstrated power growth nor developing patience, and since he'll turn 33 in less than two weeks, we can't expect any sudden quantitative leaps. As he typically tails off after the break, make sure to deal him before July if you wind up drafting him, however we'd certainly prefer an alternative at third.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Batista		615	150	.244	31	87	5	90	3
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		15		17
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	13		10		14		14

Batista continues to rank among the best third baseman for power numbers, but his weak BA limits his overall upside. He also suffers from some startlingly horrid splits: Batista posted an OPS about 200 points lower after the break and managed an OPS over 150 points better against right-handers than against southpaws. As he's now displayed little talent for hitting lefties for a few years, Baltimore needs to consider the unorthodox step of benching him against lefties in favor of one of the few AAAA guys they always keep around. Of course, Batista also displayed his best overall skills since he played for Oakland in 1997, including a 3.99 #P/PA and a career-best .54 G-F. Batista at least should maintain these numbers in 2003, and he could return to the 40/100 level if he finds a more favorable hitting environment.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robin Ventura		465	115	.247	27	93	3	68	3
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	11		9		8		16
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	12		9		9		13

With Drew Henson at least another full year away from the majors, Ventura will return to Yankee Stadium in 2003 as a very capable placeholder until they find a long-term solution. In 2002, Ventura essentially replicated the skills he displayed in his 2001 season with the Mets. While he hit six more homers and accumulated 32 more RBI, we essentially can attribute all of that improvement to the differences between the two stadiums and his increased RBI opportunities afforded by the Yankees' high OBP hitters. As he turns 36 next July, I think Ventura might regress slightly to .240/25/80, but he'll remain a decent buy anywhere under double-digits. If you roster him, look to trade him before the All-Star game since he's started tiring later in the season.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Cirillo		485	121	.249	6	54	8	51	3
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		22		18
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	7		6		21		16

Cirillo's departure from Colorado coincided with the end of his peak seasons, so even though he managed a solid .99 G-F, the combination of the heavier air near the Pacific and a falling contact rate dramatically cut his value. There's little hope for an abrupt rebound thanks to his falling walk rate and a .560 OPS against righties, and since Seattle's unlikely to only play him against left-handers, I don't envision his value heading back into double-digits. I do expect he'll make small improvements, particularly in the power categories, but any bid beyond $9 on Cirillo is unlikely to earn a profit.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Crede		200	57	.285	12	35	0	28	3
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		0		2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		5		0		7

If we prorate his numbers to 550 at-bats, we'd expect Crede to finish at a .285/33/96/0/77, earning around $20 of value in standard leagues. Crede posted a .312/.359/.571 in 359 at-bats at Charlotte in his unnecessary second year at AAA, and he also managed 24 HR, 65 RBI, and 57 runs in only four months. His 26:48 BB:K in the minors and 8:40 BB:K in the majors suggests his batting average is definitely vulnerable, and we're also not pleased with his 3.33 #P/PA. However his .74 G-F, coupled with a spot in an impressive lineup, should insure that he finishes with a 2003 fantasy value no lower than the mid-teens, and if he's available in your draft, you should feel comfortable approaching $20 due to his considerable upside.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Russ Branyan		378	86	.228	24	56	4	50	3/O
CLE/CIN		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	6		5		5		16
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	7		5		6		12

Branyan's terrible BA keeps his value below double digits even though his quantitative numbers merit a $10 value. He posted career-best marks of both a .13 walk rate and a 4.17 #P/PA, however his contact rate remained lodged at .60 and his .88 G-F, while still indicative of solid power potential, was nearly 50% worse than his G-F ratio in any of the three previous seasons. Thanks to November surgery to fix a torn labrum, Branyan now seems likely to miss all of Spring Training and up to a couple months of the regular season. I like the idea of gambling a buck or two on him if you can stash him on the DL, but otherwise you should probably ignore Branyan, especially if you're not specifically targeting players with high batting averages for the rest of your lineup.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jared Sandberg		358	82	.229	18	54	3	55	3
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		4		-2		1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	5		4		-1		2

Sandberg would be a lock to reach double-digit value in 2003 if standard leagues didn't count batting average, although his overall contribution still merits consideration in most leagues. While I showed little regard for him this past year, his impressive power display has kindled my interest. He only managed a .281/.369/.465 in 114 AAA at-bats, but his major league skills stood out. Sandberg's .11 walk rate, 4.02 #P/PA, and 1.28 G-F all indicate noteworthy improvement from the .07 walk rate, 3.72 #P/PA, and 1.88 G-F he managed in 2001. Although his contact rate dropped from .67 to .61 over the same time, the upswing in his other skills suggests he's capable of 25 homers and 80 RBI as soon as 2003. You might get stuck with an unsavory sub-.230 BA again, however if you need power, he should be a bargain in most leagues.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Coomer		148	39	.264	3	17	0	14	3
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		1		R
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	1		1		2		1

The 36-year-old Coomer no longer deserves a starting job, and a .726 OPS against lefties indicates he's barely worth of a roster spot at all. He compiled the worst combination of patience and power potential of his career in 2002, and only a jump in his contact rate from .80 to .84 allowed him to post positive value. Without any guarantee he can maintain that improvement in 2003, he's a poor pick even as a reserve, although if he finds consistent bench role, his limited quantitative upside might make him worth a Dollar Days' gamble to Stars & Scrubs' teams.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Russ Johnson		111	24	.216	1	12	5	15	3
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		7
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	0		0		7		4

Johnson battled depression and anxiety during the 2003 season, and his personal problems derailed a year where he posted relatively solid skills. Although Tampa Bay outrighted him to AAA, he remains under contract in 2003 for $725K, so he's likely to win a reserve job in Spring Training. With a .14 walk rate, 3.93 #P/PA, .90 G-F, and decent speed, Johnson's still a solid player when he's mentally capable of taking the field. While I'm not comfortable bidding on him, he shouldn't hurt you as an early-season pick-up when you need roster filler in the infield.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With five third basemen grouped within two bucks of $15 and at least four more likely to reach or exceed that level, I don't see a great need to target a specific starter. At least one of the top nine or so players should be available at a discount, so just aim to snatch the first available bargain.