Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Castillo		606	185	.305	2	39	48	86	2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	35		26		29		25
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	32		24		27		27

The fourth most valuable NL position player in 2002, Castillo continues to combine exceptional speed with a solid batting average, netting only a couple bucks in value from his limited power numbers. However he could have finished with the second best roto value in the league if he hadn't gone into a huge downturn following the end of his hitting streak. Castillo posted a .797 OPS in the first half, followed by a meager .637 after the break; he's a rather useless player for the Marlins when his OBP is at .332, but fortunately for Castillo, his manager doesn't worry about small issues like getting runners on base to score runs. Even as he managed a 76% SB success rate, the best since his rookie season, Castillo's walk rate fell below 10% and he saw a career-worst 3.90 #P/PA. The one great piece of news was his .87 contact rate, easily the best of his career, and a good indication he'll keep his batting average over .300. With excellent speed, good instincts, and solid contact, he should maintain a value in this range for the next couple of years.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Kent		623	195	.313	37	108	5	102	2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	32		24		16		25
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	31		23		16		24

Evil Knievel might have cost himself his second MVP due to his spring recklessness. Kent looked set to finish no worse than second to Bonds until a .694 September OPS left him short of the 40/115 range he needed to secure significant support. Yet he still would have garnered a lot of votes if he hadn't coasted with less than a .760 OPS in both April and May due to his injury, and he still managed to finish with the 6th most roto value among NL hitters. Now Kent seems likely to leave San Francisco, and unless he goes to the Dodgers, he'll find a friendlier hitting environment, likely one that will enable him to continue his streak of 20 homers and 100 RBI beyond his current six years. Although his skills are still very strong, he slumped from 2001 despite a career-best 37 homers, but even if we can't expect another career year unless he joins the Rockies, Kent's worth a $30+ bid in 2003.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Vidro		604	190	.315	19	96	2	103	2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	25		19		21		22
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	25		19		21		21

Other than compiling slightly worse numbers against right-handers, Vidro's established himself as a consistent batter practically guaranteed to break $20 in value. A career-best 3.82 #P/PA reflects the patience that many Expos developed this season, as does a solid .10 walk rate and a contact rate that's remained just under .90 for the last four years. Although he contributes few steals, he definitely adds a lot in the other four categories. My only concern is that his G-F ratio bounced back up to 1.67 after a season at 1.44, echoing the move from the previous two years when it rose to 1.74 after a season at 1.36. I don't see much power development in his future, but he remains a very good pick since he'll likely again post similar numbers next season.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Junior Spivey		538	162	.301	16	78	11	103	2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	23		17		1		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	23		17		1		R

Spivey's OPS fell over 200 points after the Break from a first-half .966 even as he recovered from his hamstring problems before July. He hit much better against lefties(1.053 OPS) and at home(.948 OPS) than against right-handers(.775) or on the road(.783). If those latter marks don't improve, he's a target for a potential platoon, especially since Arizona's looking to fit Spivey, Womack, Counsell, and Matt Williams into three positions. His walk rate actually slipped in 2002, but a tremendous jump in his contact rate(.71 '01; .81 '02) and solid power development, as evidenced by a drop in his G-F from 1.56 to 1.22, allowed him this quantitative quantum leap. While Spivey's speed is somewhat surprising, he's managed double-digit steals in all but one year of his career, so his SB also shouldn't shock us. Since there's nothing in his numbers that isn't supported by either skill development or his stat history, you should be comfortable with bidding around $20 to acquire him, although I don't believe he'll show much additional improvement in 2003.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Walker		612	183	.299	11	64	8	79	2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		15		17		17
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	20		15		17		15

Walker's developed into a relatively decent leadoff man even though his power suggests he'd provide more help in the lower half of Cincy's batting order. Fortunately for Walker's owners, Bob Boone continues to give him over 600 at-bats, thereby allowing him accrue about half his roto value in batting average. He usually improves in the second half, making him an excellent mid-season acquisition, but he also performs rather poorly against lefties, leaving him a definite candidate for platooning. Unfortunately, there's little to like among his 2002 skills, as only a small increase in his contact rate to .87 compensated for a general decrease in both his patience and power. I'd be uncomfortable exceeding the mid-teens in bidding for Walker next spring, and I don't expect we'll see his career year for another couple of seasons.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Young		496	139	.280	3	28	31	57	2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		15		21		21
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	18		14		21		21

He's a poor man's Luis Castillo in many ways, but just because he hurts the Brewers doesn't mean that he's not an excellent target for fantasy teams. Although his patience is starting to slip, he posted a solid 1.03 BB:K, giving him the necessary number of trips to first for him to steal another thirty bases in 2002. Don't expect much from him other than good speed and a little BA boost, but he probably won't hurt you for close to $20.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Roberto Alomar		590	157	.266	11	53	16	73	2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	14		11		36		31
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	14		11		30		31

Alomar posted one of the most disappointing fantasy seasons of any player in 2002, failing to reach expectations in every category. Southpaws held him to a piddly .574 OPS, and only a .758 OPS against right-handers allowed him to maintain any decent overall averages. As he's only managed a .744 OPS against lefties the last three seasons, I'm definitely concerned he may continue to slip. He saw enough pitches at 4.01 #P/PA, a marginal increase over 2001, but his walk rate fell from .17 to .09 as his contact rate rose from .83 to .90; Alomar simply tried to hit his way out of the slump without much success. His efforts also forced a rise in his G-F ratio from 1.27 to 1.51, which explains the drop in his power numbers. Alomar's advancing age accounts for his stolen bases falling from 30+ in each of the previous three seasons back to the levels of his Baltimore days, so we've essentially seen an across-the-board decline in skill. I'd bid up to $20 to gamble he'll return to his previous level, but he's one of the riskiest plays available next spring.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fernando Vina		622	168	.270	1	54	17	75	2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	13		10		15		12
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	14		11		16		14

Vina continued his established pattern by stealing 10 bases by the end of May and then only another seven over the last four months of the year. He's not a good player and the Cardinals would benefit from finding a leadoff man with an OBP over .333, though Vina's walk rate actually improved from .05 to .07 even as his other skills remained about the same. For 2003, only draft him if you know you can deal him before June 1st, and if your league normally sees a lot of trading, I'd push bidding on him into the upper teens since he'll look like a $20 player before he begins his regular second-half slump.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Bellhorn		445	115	.258	27	56	7	86	2/3/1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	12		10		-1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	14		10		0

Despite earning almost $10 in power numbers alone, Bellhorn's unimpressive BA limited his roto usefulness. Even though his .374 OBP suggests he's a great #2 hitter, his 144 strikeouts seem likely to keep him in the lower half of the order, and the Cubs' inconceivable reluctance to start him at third base will further reduce his 2003 upside. He saw 4.21 #P/PA, held a .79 G-F, and managed a .17 walk rate; only a normally disastrous .68 contact rate keeps me from enthusiastically recommending him. However since Bellhorn definitely possesses the skills to replicate his 2002 numbers next season and he qualifies at three positions, I'd eagerly bid him right to double-digits even though I wouldn't go $10 unless he's declared the starter before your draft.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Biggio		577	146	.253	15	58	16	96	2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		13		14
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	14		11		14		17

He'll turn 37 next week, leaving us little reason to expect his value will rebound into the mid-teens. Left-handers kept him to a .561 OPS, but he's still a quality roto player even if he's losing his value to the Astros. Biggio remains an excellent baserunner, he's regained the power lost to his injury in 2000, and the Astros' lineup provides a good opportunity for him to continue amassing helpful totals of Runs and RBI. While I wouldn't want him on my team due to his health problems and noticeable downside, he shouldn't hurt you if you can sneak him through your draft in the pre-teen double-digits.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Don't look away from the Chicago baseball teams. You'll miss two of the most ignorant men in baseball conducting a clinic in how to dismantle a promising team.

Everyone knows by now that Kenny Williams can't make a good deal. The only reason Allard Baird doesn't call Williams is that Baird doesn't want to waste the one guaranteed good trade available to him before his job is on the line. Dealing the best reliever in baseball over the last four years for someone with pretty totals in Wins and Saves doesn't help the Sox. If the Sox weren't going to re-sign Keith Foulke, then they could have grabbed two first round picks for Foulke next year.

Yet, as Kenny Williams has torn asunder the best farm system in baseball while simultaneously burdening the major league roster with overpaid mediocrities, Jim Hendy probably spent Wednesday night curled up in a ball, crying his eyes out. Baltimore filled their GM position yesterday, and all of Hendry's moves reek of someone auditioning for the Orioles' job.

Acquiring Damian Miller for nothing while dealing a solid 3B prospect for Paul Bako is probably a wash. Signing Mike Remlinger for market value isn't a horrible idea, but this isn't the best allocation of resources.

However giving up Chad Hermansen in a deal that adds salary to the Cubs is moronic. Todd Hundley was a hometown boy who MacPhail and Hendry allowed Don Baylor to abuse, leading to a downward cycle that necessitated a move. Somehow we're supposed to believe that the only team willing to take Hundley forced us to acquire two horrendously overpaid players in return, and they wouldn't make the deal without Hermansen?

Dusty Baker will insure that both Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek find an equal number of plate appearances to Hee Seop Choi and Bobby Hill, even though both the latter players already are better than the former duo.

Reportedly the Cubs now will sign Marquis Grissom sometime this weekend, adding another couple million to the payroll and guaranteeing that Corey Patterson, if he even stays with the team, will never learn to hit lefties since he'll never have the chance to play against them.

Chicago has waited 95 seasons for a World Series' champion, and winning with a mercenary squad would be worse than never winning again. We were scared of hiring Dusty Baker because we expected that he'd encourage Hendry to acquire all available proven veterans. Hendry's realizing our fears by beginning to gut one of the most promising minor league systems in baseball (dealing Rick Palma for Chad Hermansen, then moving Hermansen for nothing). Our only hope is that the normal Cub curse affects the new acquisitions, rendering them either injured or incompetent so that we're forced to rebuild until we're ready to win with a mostly homegrown roster like almost every recent champion.

As many Chicago fans continue reading uneducated columnists that seemingly support these deals, Dan Evans sits back in LA, laughing at the misfortune of the two teams that forced him out of a city he loved. The Dodgers, helped by both the Cubs and Sox in recent years, have shed salaries, added roster depth, and opened space in the majors for major free agents and promising youngsters. I have a strong feeling that LA will celebrate another title before either Chicago team, and instead of basking in champagne, Evans will probably be on the phone to yet another Chicago GM, trying to secure Brian Urlacher for LA's new NFL squad.

Of course, Cubs' fans will be too busy finishing up the new, improved Shawon-O-Meter to care about Da Bears at that point, as Dunston should be completing his second or third season back in Chicago when Dan Evans beats the CubSox to a Series.