Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value under $5

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Graffanino		229	60	.262	6	31	2	35	2/3
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	4		3		2		R

Graffanino missed the last six weeks of the season after tearing his right ACL, but he should be ready for Spring Training, where he'll return as the Sox's top utility infielder. His .10 walk rate was at his career average while he posted a .83 contact rate, nicely above his .80 career average. He also managed a career-best 4.02 #P/PA, and after jumping to a 1.67 G-F in 2001, he returned to a 1.20 G-F this year. Given that all his skills remained quite solid and he could see significant playing time at second or third base if either D'Angelo Jimenez or Joe Crede respectively struggle, Graffanino remains an excellent sleeper and one of the best $1 backups available in either league. You even could go to $2 or $3 in deeper leagues and still likely see a nice profit, although you might not want to risk the horrors that could accompany overpaying for a backup born in Amityville.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Benji Gil		130	37	.285	3	20	2	11	2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		0		1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	3		2		0		R

I almost expect his playing time to decrease given Adam Kennedy's newfound competence against lefties, but Gil's likely to find 100-150 at-bats under most circumstances. However the Angels should strictly limit Gil to facing lefties due to his terrible .838/.529 OPS platoon split. He also struggles at home with a .655 OPS, compared to .833 on the road. Gil's walk rate has crashed from .10 to .04 since 2000, and his contact rate is down to .75 after reaching .80 in 2000. There's also only a slight indication of developing power, so considering his likely limited at-bats, weak speed, and questionable BA, I wouldn't employ him in 2003 as anything more than roster filler.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Orlando Hudson		192	53	.276	4	23	0	20	2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		3				2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	3		2				R

Hudson performed admirably in his return to AAA Syracuse, posting a .305/.363/.456 with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 63 R, 8/13 SB%, and a 35:54 BB:K in 417 AB. While his major league skills slightly slipped from his AAA numbers, a 3.65 #P/PA isn't too bad, and a 1.25 G-F is fairly solid for a rookie. My concern here is that there was little to really like in his stats, so I see why Hudson seems headed out of town in the near future. Fortunately he still possesses definite power potential, so between the likelihood of him holding at least a league average BA and his quantitative upside thanks to the Blue Jays' lineup, I'm comfortable bidding into the low double digits on Hudson.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Roberts		128	29	.227	1	11	9	18	2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2		2		1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	2		2		2		1

Roberts continues to compile an impressive set of minor league numbers, managing a .275/.361/.377 with 3 HR, 30 RBI, 49 R, 22/26 SB%, and 40:46 BB:K in 313 at-bats at AAA Rochester this year. Unfortunately his contact rate repeatedly falls when he reaches the majors, and as he's shown little power at any level, a .80 G-F is likely hindering his development. He also struggles fairly badly against lefties, which is evident in the .334 OPS he managed against them in 41 at-bats in 2002. At least his 3.85 #P/PA indicates decent patience, and he owns a very good 81% career SB success rate with Baltimore. Roberts still retains significant roto upside due to his incredible SB potential, making him an excellent pick for a few bucks if he breaks camp as the primary infield back-up, although I'd exercise reluctance in bidding above single digits if he starts due to his BA problems.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Willie Harris		163	38	.233	2	12	8	14	2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	3		2		1		R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	2		2		0		1

I expect Harris to see significant playing time in Chicago next year, likely as the starting centerfielder at least for a few months. In 360 at-bats at AAA Charlotte, Harris compiled a .283/.345/.397 with 5 HR, 33 RBI, 54 R, 32/46 SB%, and a 33:61 BB:K. He deteriorated upon reaching the majors, posting just a .06 walk rate. Baltimore severely erred by jumping Harris past high-A to AA in 2001, and he likely needs another year in the minors to refine his plate discipline. The White Sox, not realizing the problem in his development, seem more likely to use him extensively in the majors. With a 8/8 SB%, Harris' speed alone makes him a good target for a couple bucks as a MIF, but I wouldn't spend more than a few dollars since he'll hurt you qualitatively even if he provides a nice quantitative boost.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Romano		91	23	.253	0	5	6	17	2/O
TEX/COL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	2		1

Colorado stole him with Gabe Kapler for half a season of Todd Hollandsworth and Dennys Reyes, and Romano should have a good chance of winning the starting job at either second or third base with the Rockies. The deal would look even better if Romano hadn't regressed upon returning to the minors after two months at AAA Oklahoma in 2001. This season he only compiled a .286/.332/.388 with 4 HR, 37 RBI, 48 R, 18/24 SB%, and 25:68 BB:K in 325 at-bats. He didn't demonstrate much better skills in the majors, only managing a .08 walk rate, .74 contact rate, 3.60 #P/PA, and 1.32 G-F, none of which suggest he's ready for a regular major league job. A 6/7 SB% indicates he still possesses decent speed skills, but he's less likely to see much roto success in Colorado next year than Jose Ortiz and Juan Uribe were in 2002. Consider him a very risky play, and even if looks set to start, let someone else roster him if the bidding exceeds a few bucks.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Sheets		149	37	.248	4	22	2	18	2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1

Sheets shocked us by compiling a .294/.345/.505 in 374 at-bats at AAA Durham, earning his way back to the majors as a utility infielder who saw at least 15 games at every infield position in 2002. After his promotion to Tampa, he posted a career-best 3.85 #P/PA while displaying decent power potential and patience at the plate. Of course, his .72 contact rate was only slightly above his career norm, and as long as he's striking out in close to a third of his at-bats, he's a poor roto option. At the moment, Sheets is Tampa's only real option to start at shortstop, but I fully expect them to find an alternative before April, and given his questionable skills, you should look elsewhere for infield help.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Nieves		97	28	.289	0	6	1	17	2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	1		1

Nieves' sole offensive talent appears to be the ability to post an occasional good batting average to keep his job as a AAAA utility infielder. Realistically, he lacks the skills even to start regularly at AAA, so there's no reason ever to roster him.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lou Merloni		194	48	.247	4	18	1	28	2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	1		1		0

Merloni cannot hit against righties, posting a .678 OPS over the last three years while managing an .882 OPS against southpaws. His .87 G-F in 2002 was easily a career best mark, and his .10 walk rate was a surprise from someone who'd averaged a .05 the previous four seasons. Given this developing power, improved plate discipline, and dominance against lefties, he's earned his job in Boston next season and could even start against some lefties. However he remains a poor roto option due to his weak quantitative numbers, and I'm not comfortable rostering him given his unproductive past.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Homer Bush		132	30	.227	1	7	4	16	2
TOR/FLO		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		11		13
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	0		0		10		9

Bush played himself out of Toronto and even earned his release from Florida on September 1st. The minor power development he displayed in 2001 disappeared this year, and he didn't receive sufficient playing time to adequately utilize his speed. I still think he possesses decent roto potential if given the chance to run, but if he couldn't find SB attempts with Jeff Torborg in Florida, I don't expect he'll see a better opportunity.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Randy Velarde		133	30	.226	2	8	3	22	2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		2		4
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	0		0		3		3

Velarde's expected to retire after a 16-year career in which he failed to earn a World Series ring despite spending parts of 10 seasons with the Yankees. While he still owns a solid batting eye, the 39-year-old probably lacks the offensive capability to positively contribute to a team. Don't expect him back in 2003, and don't roster him if he returns.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bry Nelson		34	9	.265	0	2	1	6	2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		0

Nelson only offers teams two positive attributes. First, he makes excellent contact, holding a .91 contact rate at AAA Pawtucket this year and only striking out once in 34 at-bats in the majors. Second, Nelson apparently owns gloves for every position except first base and catcher, but as he's an inconsistent fielder, he doesn't improve a team defensively. He's not a bad 25th man for some teams, however he probably doesn't belong on your fantasy team.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damion Easley		304	68	.224	8	30	1	29	2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		10		9
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	0		0		10		9

There's still some promise of future quantitative contributions thanks to Easley pulling his G-F ratio down to .97, his best mark since 1996. Somewhat surprisingly, we can also expect a BA jump after Easley posted a career-high .86 contact rate. He missed about half the season due to a strained left oblique and then both hand and wrist trouble, so even though I recognize that his overall skill profile isn't wonderful, he mostly improved when healthy in 2002. As Easley's fallen under the radar due to increasingly weak fantasy performances over the last few years, he's an excellent target in 2003 drafts, especially if you can grab him at only a couple of bucks.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chone Figgins		12	2	.167	0	1	2	6	2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Anaheim Prospects for comments on Figgins.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brandon Phillips		31	8	.258	0	4	0	5	2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0				1
2002 Age: 21	5x5:	-1		-1				R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Phillips.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Alicea		237	54	.228	1	23	2	28	2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		1
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	0		0		2

Alicea couldn't even manage a .650 OPS against righties, and he was below a .500 OPS against lefties. His speed's essentially disappeared, as has his already limited power. However a .94 BB:K and .14 walk rate indicate he still possesses an excellent batting eye, so I wouldn't be surprised if he played another season or two. Carlos Beltran credits Alicea with helping his development as a hitter, so once he retires, I expect Alicea to move into coaching immediately. Of course, his solid credentials for his next job don't mean he's currently worth rostering on fantasy teams.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Flores		3	0	.000	0	0	1	2	2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Oakland Prospects for comments on Flores.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Ordaz		94	21	.223	0	4	2	11	2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-1

With a .92 BB:K, .13 walk rate, .86 contact rate, 3.82 #P/PA, and a 1.96 G-F, all marks at or near his career bests, Ordaz displayed solid skills in the majors for the first time in 2002. Unfortunately his .553 OPS might prevent him from seeing too many future opportunities, but while I'm not comfortable recommending him at the moment, he might help as a mid-season pickup in the near future if he improves his stats in the minors.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Oscar Salazar		21	4	.190	1	3	0	2	2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York(N) Prospects for comments on Salazar.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Esteban German		35	7	.200	0	0	1	4	2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1				3
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Oakland Prospects for comments on German.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Warren Morris		7	0	.000	0	0	0	0	2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		0
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-2		-1

Morris spent time with three different minor league teams in 2002, compiling a .281/.321/.427. Despite his poor overall skills, he's still young enough where he should rebound to manage a decent comeback at some point, but Morris is not a viable fantasy option at the moment.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Menechino		132	27	.205	3	15	0	22	2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		2		3
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-1		4		6

Most of Menechino's skills remained intact, including a fantastic 4.36 #P/PA and solid .95 G-F. Even his .15 walk rate was close to his 2001 mark, but a drop in contact rate from .79 to .76 obliterated 37 points of his BA, dragging him down next to the Mendoza Line. Mark Ellis and Esteban German both possess significantly more upside, so Menechino appears fairly likely to depart the Oakland organization this off-season. I'm not willing to roster him in the spring even assuming he finds a backup job somewhere, but Menechino might help as a mid-season pickup if his contact rate rebounds while his other skills remain intact.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jay Canizaro		112	24	0.214	0	11	0	14	2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1		2

Canizaro looked ready to make a major contribution to Minnesota in 2001 until a torn ACL cost him the entire season. While he wasn't able to fulfill his promise this year, he posted a .287/.370/.518 in 247 at-bats at AAA Edmonton, suggesting he still possesses the skills necessary to start in the majors. He's likely worth a gamble if he finds a starting job in the next year or two.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Lawrence		150	27	.180	2	15	2	16	2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2		-2

J.P. Ricciardi should have known that Lawrence was not ready for the majors, and there was no reason not to risk slipping him through waivers given his limited upside. Instead he wasted 150 at-bats here, allowing Lawrence to finish the season as the worst fantasy middle infielder in the American League. Lawrence possesses a hint of offensive skills with a .11 walk rate, 3.92 #P/PA, and 1.02 G-F, but a .75 contact rate prohibits him from playing in the big leagues at the moment. Do not roster him until he reduces his strikeouts at AAA.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I see about a dozen second basemen worth owning, I only envision maybe four or five from the thirty-nine AL 2B discussed over the last two days as players I'd like to own. In AL keeper leagues, I advise addressing your catching and second base situations first before trying to fill other positions with quality players at bargain prices.