Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value of $5 or more

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alfonso Soriano		696	209	.300	39	102	41	128	2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	48		37		22		24
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	46		35		21		26

While Vlad posted slightly better stats, Soriano's five-category dominance, especially in a bad year for second basemen, easily earned him our 2002 Roto MVP. He contributed over $30 of value just between steals and batting average, and his homers and RBI alone would have ranked him among the top five AL second basemen. Aside from Bret Boone driving in six more runners and Adam Kennedy posting a .312 BA, Soriano essentially lapped the field in every category. The question we face is whether he can sustain this All-Star success in 2003. With a .78 G-F and .77 contact rate, the latter only a slight drop from his .78 in 2001, I definitely think he can post similar power numbers. He's also posted almost identical SB/CS numbers the last two years, so he'll maintain his speed, giving him roughly $35 of value in most leagues in just three categories. As his walk rate fell from .05 to .03 and his #P/PA descended from 3.84 to 3.58, my last concern is his BA. A .300 BA seems ridiculous given these skills, making his .268 from 2001 look far more reasonable. Figure on a similar average around .270, so if you're interested in owning him, jump to $39 fairly quickly, but let him go if someone bids $40.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ray Durham		564	163	.289	15	70	26	114	2/D
CHW/OAK		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	28		21		20		24
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	28		21		20		24

Durham normally struggles in the second half and against lefties, so hopefully he'll either re-sign with the A's or head to the NL, where he shouldn't face Zito, Mulder, and Lilly a couple times a year. The key to his career-best .824 OPS is a career-high of both a .13 walk rate and a .84 contact rate. If his G-F hadn't risen to 1.22 from 1.09 in 2001, he might have reached 20 homers again, so even though he's now into his 30s, Durham still appears capable of a .300/20/80/30 season. I don't expect him to reach those numbers unless he joins the Rockies, but he remains one of the premier second basemen in baseball and merits a $20+ bid in roto as his skills look as strong as ever.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Kennedy		474	148	.312	7	52	17	65	2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	24		18		8		9
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	22		17		9		10

As befits the regulars for any World Series' team, Kennedy joins most of his teammates as players to avoid in 2003 due to the likelihood of overbidding. His unimpressive skills also don't support his 2002 performance, since his shocking .312 BA accounts for almost half his value. Fortunately his platoon split is down to 30 points of OPS, and he finally improved after the All-Star break, raising his value to the Angels. Kennedy managed to post a few bright spots in his stats, including a rise from 63% to 81% in his SB rate while continuing gradual improvement to a 3.79 #P/PA and .83 G-F, both career bests. The problem is that he fell to a career worst .04 walk rate and .83 contact rate, not the marks of your normal .300 hitter, so he looks primed to crash next season. Even if he runs more next year and maintains his power, his BA drop will send his value under $20, necessitating a maximum bid in the high teens.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bret Boone		608	169	.278	24	107	12	88	2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	23		18		19		23
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	23		18		19		20

Boone continues to post much worse numbers against right-handers, however the shock this year was his horrible first half; he only managed a .691 OPS before exploding to a .930 after the break. The difference is almost entirely due to a superior batting average, a surprising development considering his contact rate fell from .84 to .82. Comparing his 2002 marks to his stats in 2001, his walk rate actually improved from .06 to .09 this year while his contact rate increased to .83 from .82. Boone even managed a solid 71% SB success rate, but his power numbers plummeted because his G-F ratio jumped from an average of 1.08 over the last three years to 1.68 in 2002. So even though I suspect he can hold a .280 BA, he's unlikely to exceed a 20/100 season again. Any bid over $20 remains risky despite this relatively solid follow-up season to his career year in 2001.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jerry Hairston, Jr.		426	114	.268	5	32	21	55	2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	15		11		13		13
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	14		11		13		12

The AL second base depth falls off very quickly after Bret Boone since Hairston, who lost his starting job for part of 2002, managed only about 65% of Boone's value. After spending three years hitting much better against lefties, he struggled against lefties most of 2002, and he again flailed throughout much of the first half, only managing a .601 OPS until the All-Star break. His plate discipline skills remained mostly unchanged, but he dropped his G-F rate down below 1.00 for the first time to .96, suggesting we might see him reach double-digit homers in the near future. Of course, the majority of his value derives from his SB output, and we can expect a jump in 2003 after his success rate improved from 73% to 78%. Between the likely rise back over two-dozen steals and a potential power increase, Hairston could edge close to $20, but I'd be hesitant to bid over about $15 given his inconsistent track record and the Orioles' middle infield alternatives.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Young		573	150	.262	9	62	6	77	2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		8		7		6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	11		9		9		13

Young actually finished with the third most RBI of any AL second baseman thanks to the benefits of hitting in Texas' lineup. Unfortunately his .690 OPS left him with little value to the Rangers beyond his reported defensive prowess, leaving his starting spot in jeopardy as he could be moved to centerfield, dealt for pitching, or simply supplanted by Frank Catalanotto or Hank Blalock. He hasn't displayed much speed since leaving AA, and while a 4.01 #P/PA indicates some plate patience, only a slight improvement in his walk rate and a marginal jump from .76 to .80 in his contact rate suggest any primary skill improvement. Unfortunately, Young's 1.64 G-F suggests little power potential, and without much hope of a SB jump, I don't expect him to significantly exceed single-digits at any point in the foreseeable future.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Febles		351	86	.245	4	26	16	44	2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		10		11
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		11		10

The laughable aspect of the Royals' demotion of Febles is that he both remained healthy most of the season and posted his best overall numbers since 1999. The Royals don't appear to understand that Febles' failure to develop into a star to match the other member of Dos Carlos is only an indictment of their horrendous coaching. Febles posted a career-high .12 walk rate and 3.85 #P/PA while managing a .82 contact rate, slightly above his career norm. A 76% SB success rate is about what we expect from him, so the only problem was his G-F jumping back to 2.44 after a season of power development in 2001 at 1.92. If they non-tender him for any reason, we'll enjoy the next few seasons of Febles making the Royals look ridiculous for giving up on him. He's not a great player, and he's not even particularly good right now, but he's only 26 and retains the potential to emerge as a solid contributor to a good team, as well as the possibility of reaching $20 in roto value. Target Febles in 2003 regardless of his organization.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rey Sanchez		357	102	.286	1	38	2	46	2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		6		7		1
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	7		6		8		3

Only holding a .91 contact rate allows Sanchez to maintain even marginal value on offense since his secondary average was a pitiful .106, which would have ranked second worst in the majors to Neifi Perez's .101 if Sanchez had remained healthy. He barely averages three pitches per plate appearance, and there's little chance of him displaying any noticeable power increase even though he managed a 1.84 #P/PA, a nice improvement from the 3.05 #P/PA he averaged the last two years. Sanchez is not someone to acquire in the draft before Dollar Days even with the possibility of him earning a few bucks in profit since you can't trust his BA and his quantitative contribution is almost worthless.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Ellis		345	94	.272	6	35	4	58	2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		6		0
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	8		6		0

With a .352 OBP in 2002 and a half-year of experience under his belt, Ellis might wind up as Oakland's leadoff man if they don't re-sign Durham or acquire a more experienced alternative. He posted an .802 OPS after the break while surprisingly hitting much better at home; Ellis also crushed lefties for an .896 OPS and still managed a decent .725 OPS against righties. His skills are all extremely good, including a .81 BB:K, .13 walk rate, 4.05 #P/PA, and .73 G-F, with only his .84 contact rate even a little below what we'd like to see. If Ellis continues building on his second half performance while finding 550+ at-bats, we can expect a stat line around .290/10/65/8/90, easily worth a bid in the high teens in most leagues. You probably can acquire him for a bid in the low teens, making him an excellent target due to his solid skills and overall upside.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damian Jackson		245	63	.257	1	25	12	31	2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		9		5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	6		5		9

Jackson didn't endear himself to the Tigers after Detroit acquired him from San Diego at the end of Spring Training, and they released him following the season. Fortunately he still provided some helpful roto numbers, and thanks to his great speed, he should continue to contribute to fantasy teams over the next few years. He owns a career SB success rate of 80%, as well as averaging 4.01 #P/PA, giving him solid credentials for anyone's bench. His .09 walk rate was slightly below what we expected, but a .85 contact rate was far above his career norm, suggesting he's capable of a BA above .270. With his decent skills and SB upside, Jackson's a nice target later in next spring's drafts.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Rivas		316	81	.256	4	35	9	46	2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		17		19
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	7		6		16		18

After losing the first two months of the season due to a hairline fracture in his left wrist, courtesy of a Dan Reichert pitch in the second game of the year, Rivas failed to approach his fantasy value from 2001 even though he posted a slightly improved OPS. We can't tell much from slight changes in his walk and contact rates, and dropping from 3.74 to 3.52 #P/PA isn't overly significant. However, a move from a 1.86 G-F to 1.42 definitely suggests a forthcoming power increase. Unfortunately, falling from 31 steals at a 74% success rate to 9 steals at a 69% rate really worries me, especially as wrist problems shouldn't affect someone's running ability. Rivas won't even turn 24 until the end of next August, so he has plenty of time to develop into a successful second baseman, but don't expect a huge rise in his value in 2003. I wouldn't stay in any bidding beyond about $15.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Catalanotto		212	57	.269	3	23	9	42	2/O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		5		20		12
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	7		5		20		15

Catalanotto's main problem in 2003 is finding playing time as he's competing with Travis Hafner, Mike Young, Juan Gonzalez, Kevin Mench, Carl Everett, Ryan Ludwick, and potentially others for time at DH, 2B, and the outfield in Texas. Assuming he stays in the lineup regularly, his missing over half the season to a stress fracture in his back and a broken right hand makes him a fantastic sleeper. When healthy, he posted a .93 BB:K and a .12 walk rate, both career best marks, along with a solid .87 contact rate. He's not demonstrating greatly increased patience or power potential, but with these solid batting skills, he could easily return to a .300 BA. Catalanotto's also quite capable of posting double-digits in homers and steals, making him a great buy into the mid-teens.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Macias		338	84	.249	7	39	8	43	2/3/O
DET/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	6		5		14		13
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	6		5		13		14

We expected a lot from Macias this year, and between playing his way to the bench and then over to Montreal, we were rather disappointed with his production. However, if Montreal manages to trade Fernando Tatis, Macias should compete with Jamey Carroll to start at third base. His speed should continue to comprise at least half his value, so a 50% SB success rate certainly concerns me. Even though he showed slightly more patience and power potential in 2002, drops in his plate discipline skills, combined with his terrible baserunning, suggest you avoid Macias until looking to add a little speed and position flexibility during Dollar Days.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ricky Gutierrez		353	97	.275	4	38	0	38	2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		10		9
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	5		4		11		9

Gutierrez underwent successful neck surgery in October, barely avoiding the end of his career due to a herniated neck disc. Even though he improved from a .596 OPS before the All-Star game to a .839 after the break, the severity of his injury makes him a very questionable buy. Gutierrez may be healthy for Opening Day, in which case he'll likely start at third base for Cleveland, or he could miss much of the season while recovering from his injury. His plate discipline deteriorated notably in 2002, so I really wouldn't want him on my team even when healthy, and in consideration of his health problems, you should probably avoid Gutierrez in 2003 unless you can pick him up in Dollar Days as a buck flier.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Berg		374	101	.270	4	39	0	42	2/3
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		0
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	5		4		1

Few playing time decisions surprised us more than Toronto giving Berg almost 400 at-bats in 2002, and now we're reading a few reports indicating they'd like him back in 2003. This seemingly foolhardy waste of at-bats neither helped them win in 2002 or develop future contributors, and with only a career-best .85 contact rate indicating any improvement from Berg, we fail to understand the rationale behind this decision. We certainly don't expect him to approach this level of playing time again, and with most of skills declining, I see no reason to roster him in 2003 unless you need mid-season roster filler.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brent Abernathy		463	112	.242	2	40	10	46	2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		16		10
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	5		4		16		13

Aubrey Huff was about the only one of Tampa's youngsters to finally begin fulfilling expectations this year, and Abernathy's failure to develop leaves them with serious questions at every position up the middle. His AA numbers in 1999 suggested roto stardom, yet aside from a small jump in his contact rate, nearly all of Abernathy's skills visibly declined. He's only a sleeper in 2003 due to his youth, and I see no reason to bid into double-digits for him. I see a lot of other second basemen I'd rather roster than Abernathy, although if you're determined to limit your spending at this position, he's not a horrible acquisition.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Securing a top second baseman in the AL appears rather important given the huge drop from the elite four to Hairston and then Young and the single-digit performers. With Kennedy likely overpriced, you should target one of the other three at $20+, and assuming Soriano goes for over $40, remain willing to spend into the mid-$20s on Durham and Boone unless you're comfortable with only an Ellis or Rivas.