Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Single-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Cora		258	75	.291	5	28	7	37	S/2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	8		6		-3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		-2

Cora demonstrated solid development in many areas, but the most intriguing was his .943 OPS at home. Dodger Stadium was the most extreme pitchers' park in the majors this year, and with only a minute improvement in his road OPS, I tend to believe Cora's success at home is largely due to irregularities present in comparatively small sample sizes. However he also managed a career high of both a .10 walk rate and .85 contact rate, and a .68 BB:K suggests he could maintain a BA above the league average. He saw 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, a decent increase from the last two years, and he also took advantage of his latent speed by posting a 1.61 G-F. Cora may be a product of Jim Tracy's knack at maximizing the usefulness of his players, but his skill development suggests he could continue posting $5+ roto values as long as he stays in his current role.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex S. Gonzalez		513	127	.248	18	61	5	58	S
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		6		8		9
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	8		6		9		13

While we're not pleased with the Cubs owing him over $5M in each of the next two seasons, he managed the third best overall RBI total of any NL shortstop, behind only Jose Hernandez and Edgar Renteria. I'm a little concerned that he generally hits better at night in domes, not exactly the best profile for someone playing half his games at Wrigley. The biggest problem in his skills was a .73 contact rate, the second worst mark of his career, which also largely negated the benefits of a career-best 1.18 G-F, a huge drop from a 1.52 G-F in 2001. If he maintains his power potential while boosting his contact rate up to his .76 career rate, Gonzalez's home runs, which have gradually increased from 15 in 2000 to 17 and then 18 this year, could shoot up into the upper 20s. You run a slight BA risk by drafting him, but few other players can guarantee you a top five finish in the power categories at their position for less than $10; he's a solid sleeper for 2003.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Vazquez		423	116	.274	2	32	7	50	S/2/3
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		6		7		7
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		8		7

Steals and batting average account for over half of Vazquez's value, and thanks to the rise of the AL superstar shortstop, accepting only 2 homers and 32 RBI from any position without SB dominance seems unreasonable in the current roto environment. Fortunately, you might be able to take advantage of this misconception by other owners to grab the moderately valuable Vazquez at a discount. While he absolutely can't face lefties right now after managing only a .367 OPS vs. left-handers in 2002, a .11 walk rate, 3.88 #P/PA, and 2.17 G-F all indicate he's developing appropriate skills for batting against right-handers. I don't envision him earning much more than $10 in the foreseeable future, but as he'll qualify at three positions in most leagues and provide you with moderate help in steals, we'll try to roster him for a few bucks as a MIF or reserve.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Lugo		322	84	.261	8	35	9	45	S
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		6		7		8
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	7		6		7		9

A broken left forearm cost Lugo the last two months of the season and prevented him from reaching double-digit roto value. He wasn't playing badly prior to the injury, but his home-road split had grown to 260 points of OPS, suggesting his decent roto production is a direct result of his home park. At least Lugo's skills haven't deteriorated, having remained at roughly a .09 walk rate and .77 contact rate in each of his three seasons in the majors. His #P/PA jumped to 4.04 after two seasons of 3.82, indicating improving plate patience, however he hasn't developed any power as his G-F ratio bounced from 1.52 in 2000 to 1.20 last year and now to a 1.46 G-F in 2002. Combined with a general reduction in speed that leaves him unlikely to grab more than a dozen bags, there's no reason to expect any breakout from Lugo in 2003. He's more likely to post another season of value in the low teens.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rich Aurilia		538	138	.257	15	61	1	76	S
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		16		26
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	9		7		16		25

After a few years of relatively even splits, lefties held Aurilia to a .612 OPS, and he also struggled terribly on grass(.697 OPS) and outside(.694 OPS). Without holding a .945+ OPS indoors and on turf, Aurilia might have fallen below $5 a year after leading all NL shortstops at $32. He actually came back strong from spending only two weeks on the DL to recover from surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but Aurilia couldn't sustain even a moderate level of success throughout the season. A drop in contact rate from .87 to .83 likely accounted for much of the BA problem. However, if he can avoid just a few more strikeouts while taking advantage of the power development indicated by a drop from an .87 G-F to a .68, he might rise back into the mid-teens with a .275/20/80 season. Aurilia remains a decent roto target and should be available at a slight discount in many leagues.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Barry Larkin		507	124	.245	7	47	13	72	S
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		5		4		8
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	8		6		5		11

Larkin's production basically didn't rebound at all despite a nice improvement in quantitative numbers due to his relatively good health; aside from a .964 OPS in 10 at-bats on turf, he didn't reach even a .690 OPS in any other major split. He suffered through nearly a half dozen minor injuries, and as he'll turn 39 in April, we can't expect him to avoid the DL in the last year of his three-year deal. Fortunately he's still posting some decent numbers, including a .77 BB:K, 76% SB success rate, and a 1.18 G-F, his second best mark since 1987. The problem is that Larkin's .09 walk rate and 3.43 #P/PA are his worst marks since 1989, indicating a failure to compensate for his declining batting skills with better plate discipline. This MVP is heading to the Hall of Fame in a few years after leading the Reds to one World Series' championship and into a new ballpark, but we can't expect him to break $5 again. Somewhat ironically, the perception of his failing health might allow him to slide into the late rounds in many leagues, and as long as your league has somewhat liberal transaction rules, you could find a helpful profit by grabbing him for a buck or two.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Deivi Cruz		514	135	.263	7	47	2	49	S/2/3
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4		2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	6		5		1		1

Cruz reportedly wants a multi-year deal, and while his stats have been affected by playing in two of the worst hitters' parks in baseball throughout his career, there's also no indication he'll emerge as an above average offensive player at any point, especially after gaining three years in agegate. The sad thing about his numbers this year is that his .04 walk rate was a career high, and after dropping from a 1.58 G-F in 1999 to a 1.27 the following season, he's jumped back up to 1.33 and 1.49 the last two years. Cruz's respectable .89 contact rate at least should keep his BA over the league average, so he should continue to earn about $5 a year as long as he continues to start. However, I don't expect he'll ever reach a much higher value.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jack Wilson		527	133	.252	4	47	5	77	S
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		-2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		5		0		1

One of the quieter surprises of the season, Wilson earned about $5 despite almost no pre-season attention, earning a spot in most NL leagues despite a weak track record. We need to remember he already has close to two years of major league experience and will only turn 25 in December, making him a decent candidate to continue improving in 2003 even if he doesn't quite seem primed for a breakout. He slumped in the second half for the second straight year, however he also improved against all pitchers, simply mashing lefties for a .928 OPS. The best news is that all his skills developed, including his BB:K(.23 '01; .50 '02), walk rate(.04 '01; .07 '02), contact rate(.82 '01; .86 '02), #P/PA(3.59 '01; 3.77 '02), and G-F ratio(1.23 '01; 1.11 '02). I'll be shocked if he at least doesn't match this year's stats in 2003, and if he's available in your keeper league for only a couple bucks, you might find a nice SS bargain for the next few seasons.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Uribe		566	136	.240	6	49	9	69	S
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		23		19
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	5		4		22		18

Uribe reached double-digit value in only 273 at-bats in 2001, so this disastrous performance likely torpedoed many fantasy teams. After a wondrous .926 April OPS, we were slightly concerned he was playing over his head, but we didn't expect him to barely break a .500 OPS the next four months. However a September rebound to an .825 OPS left him with an almost identical OPS in each half, making his .509 road OPS stand out even more from the rest of his splits. Uribe isn't even appearing a superior hitter to his predecessor at the moment, but at least the doubling of his walk rate from .03 to .06 gives us some hope for his future. A return to double-digit value seems reasonable if he remains the starter, however we can't envision bidding above $9 right now.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon E. Martinez		181	49	.271	4	25	2	26	S
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		2		1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	3		3		2

Martinez seemed the Giants' de facto starting second baseman in 2003 until GM Brian Sabean bizarrely grabbed Neifi Perez on waivers. The only teams that didn't have the chance to pass on Perez were St. Louis, Arizona, and Atlanta, and none of them was going to add an expensive middle infielder. So unless San Francisco non-tenders Perez and doesn't obtain a different, more expensive replacement for the apparently departing Jeff Kent, Martinez should spend another season on the bench, an appropriate role given his questionable skill level. A career-best .72 G-F suggests he could reach double-digit homers in a full-time role, however he struggled when given more than 200 at-bats in 2001. While a .737 career OPS in the pitchers' haven in San Francisco indicates Martinez could emerge as a competent starting middle infielder, I just don't see any particular skill potential that warrants a larger role. His likely eligibility for arbitration negates some of his value for the Giants, and even if he unexpectedly appears headed for 500 at-bats as of your draft, I certainly would prefer to only draft him as a reserve.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rey Ordonez		460	117	.254	1	42	2	53	S
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		-2
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	3		3		-1		R

St. Rey's ridiculously ill-advised contract finally expires at the end of 2003, freeing the Mets of one of the most costly burdens on any team in recent years. He absolutely can't hit lefties, as he only managed a .463 OPS and 3 RBI in 119 at-bats; of course his .669 OPS against righties also isn't acceptable. With a walk rate that dropped from .07 to .05 this year and an average 2.18 G-F ratio over the last two years, I see no potential for improvement in his plate discipline or power at any point, rendering him essentially useless even if traded to Colorado. He should only spend about a third of next year active in most leagues unless several NL shortstops take extended DL trips.

I'll review the remainder of NL shortstops tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: You'll probably find better bargains by price shopping on the net than you will by spending all morning out in stores today, so definitely consider spending most of the day resting, especially if you're exhausted from a couple days of cooking and cleaning.