Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgar Renteria		544	166	.305	11	83	22	77	S
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	27		21		22		22
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	26		19		20		21

Renteria finally experienced his breakout season while finishing as the only NL shortstop over $20 and the 13th best position player in the league, adding more to most teams than established roto stalwarts like Shawn Green, Sammy Sosa, and Gary Sheffield. His five-category contribution probably boosted many teams into the first division. After compiling a .85 contact rate over his six-year career, a jump to a .90 this year fueled a surge to his best BA since his rookie season. Renteria's platoon split has essentially disappeared, although he again posted much better numbers in the second half. He also took advantage of hitting behind Edmonds and Rolen to post a career-best RBI total. As long as he continues posting solid skills as part of the best offense in the league, Renteria should remain an excellent selection in any league.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rafael Furcal		636	175	.275	8	47	27	95	S
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	20		15		23		23
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	21		16		23		25

Furcal's skills are nowhere near those he displayed back in 2000, and he ranks second among NL shortstops mainly due to the quantitative advantage of finding 636 at-bats. His walk rate has fallen from .16 to .07, so even as he's held a .82 contact rate, his BB:K is down to .38 after a .92 BB:K in 2000. Similarly, he's now only seeing 3.81 #P/PA after managing 4.10 as a rookie, and instead of taking advantage of his speed with a 2.25 G-F ratio, he's down to a 1.76 G-F, a troublesome progression for someone with a sub-.390 SLG in every season of his career. While Furcal's certainly not a bad player to slot at shortstop, he seems overrated to me and you can probably grab Renteria at a roughly similar price.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Womack		590	160	.271	5	57	29	90	S
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		15		15		18
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	20		15		15		17

Like many speedsters heading into their mid-30s, Womack seems unlikely to reach 30 SB again. He's down to a 71 SB% success rate after averaging 85% throughout his career. With Matt Williams and Craig Counsell both likely healthy in 2003, there's simply no reason for Arizona to ever start Womack against left-handers. However he plays much better in the second half and at home, making him an excellent mid-season trade target, especially in leagues with daily transactions. A career-best 3.88 #P/PA at least indicates he's developing some patience as he ages, but between playing time questions and overall concerns about his skill level, I would not target him in spring drafts.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Hernandez		525	151	.288	24	73	3	72	S
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	18		13		5		10
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	17		13		6		7

Aside from Hernandez and ex-Brewer manager Jerry Royster disgustingly conspiring to prevent Hernandez from easily establishing a new strikeout record, Hernandez should be very pleased with this season. He set career highs of a .288 BA, .356 OBP, and .834 OPS while matching his previous best of 4.05 #P/PA. Increasing from a 1.43 G-F to a 1.68 suggests he may not match these quantitative numbers, especially if he winds up in a less favorable hitters' park, however he should remain .250/20/60 range. Hernandez appears more generally reliable than either Furcal or Womack, although we also should expect his BA to plummet from .288 given his .64 contact rate, making any bid over about $12 look very risky.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Orlando Cabrera		563	148	.263	7	56	25	64	S
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		12		17		21
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	16		12		16		19

While his season doesn't appear overly strong considering his unimpressive numbers in the Triple Crown categories, his solid SB output, which accounted for about half his roto value, pushes him into the top five NL shortstops. Given his surge in triples and steals in 2001, his 25 steals shouldn't surprise us, and since he shouldn't be battling a herniated disc in his back all of next season, Cabrera looks capable of reaching at least thirty steals. Nothing in his offensive profile indicates any likelihood of a slump since he smacked 43 doubles, held a 1.26 G-F, and improved his #P/PA for the fourth straight year to reach 3.55. Most importantly, his 9% walk rate is a career high, and he maintained a .91 contact rate, suggesting a .280/15/80/30 season isn't unreasonable. Bid him to $20 if he's healthy in the spring.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jimmy Rollins		637	156	.245	11	60	31	82	S
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	15		12		29		29
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	16		12		27		26

We didn't expect Rollins to see a sophomore slump despite questionable skills, and while his stats and value fell, his skills improved almost across the board. His walk rate(.07 '01; .08 '02), contact rate(.835 '01; .838 '02), and #P/PA(3.63 '01; 3.85 '02) all increased, and a drop from 1.06 to a 1.19 G-F doesn't overly concern me. The big problem is the drop in SB% from 85% to 77%, which accompanied a drop in his attempts from 54 to 44. Rollins largely quite running during the summer after he was caught about once a week though mid-May, however he stole 14 bases in 18 attempts in the last two months of the season, and if he maintains that pace next year, he'll cruise back over 40 steals. Considering he just turned 24 yesterday and will enter his third full season in 2003, he's an excellent candidate to develop in most categories, and I fully expect he'll head past $20 and finish next season close to $30 in value.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Fox		435	109	.251	4	41	31	55	S
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	14		11		1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	14		11		1

No one expected Fox to finish tied for the second most steals of any shortstop, but he's displayed decent speed skills for years without getting much playing time. He should remain starting next year, although I hope Florida platoons him since he only managed a .148/.208/.193 against lefties. Most of his skills were relatively in line with his career averages, although his .671 OPS was even below his career .681 mark. The Marlins don't benefit from starting Fox, so he could return to the bench at any time, making him a very risky play anywhere above single digits.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Vizcaino		406	123	.303	5	37	3	53	S/2/3
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	11		9		0
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	11		9		0

Vizcaino's batting average accounted for the majority of his value, and as he's only exceeded .287 in one other season, there's no way he'll post double-digit value in 2003. Julio Lugo will likely return to his starting job, leaving Vizcaino as no more than a helpful backup. His .863/.616 home/road OPS split doesn't boost his case for more playing time, and any slippage in his .90 contact rate should send his roto value down to around $5. The only overly positive sign here is a 1.11 G-F and .397 SLG, both easily the best of his career by significant amounts. Overall this season appears a lucky fluke to me, and you should be pleased if you managed to roster Vizcaino for this career year in 2002.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Renteria's not only an excellent value, he's also now seemingly underrated since he hasn't approached the numbers of the top AL shortstops. Plenty of owners keep expecting a .320/20/100/30/100 season, and we just don't envision him reaching those extraordinary marks at any point. However his current production pushes $30, and with no other NL shortstop combining this degree of help in BA, speed, and power numbers, you'll gain a nice advantage in your league if you can grab him under $25.