Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Shortstops without Double-Digit Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Woodward		312	86	.276	13	45	3	48	S
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		-2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	9		7		-2

Toronto seems poised on the edge of some truly awful player decisions if they, as rumored, decide on a future middle infield of Russ Adams and Chris Woodward. While both Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez have shown significant upside and we like Adams' potential, we don't know what they see in Woodward. He hit great against righties with a .906 OPS but showed nothing against lefties, posting a terrible .149/.247/.203 while compiling this worrisome reverse platoon split. Woodward struggles during the day, on grass, and in open-air stadiums, suggesting he's perfect for the Skydome yet not a great full-time starter. We do like some of his secondary skills, including a 3.91 #P/PA and .82 G-F, but a .08 walk rate and .77 contact rate are very troublesome, especially since both marks reflect his minor league history. Although he's a decent starter, I don't see much upside and don't envision any breakout aside from any quantitative milestones he reaches due to the likely extra at-bats he'll see in 2003.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Guillen		475	124	.261	9	56	4	73	S
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	8		6		5		4
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	9		7		4		8

Guillen stumbled badly in the second half, posting a .601 OPS following the break after reaching an .828 before the All-Star game; he traditionally improves a little as the season progresses, so his lack of growth after a solid opening is rather troubling. A drop from a 1.30 G-F in 2001 to a 1.06 G-F in 2002 suggests we'll see continued power development from him, however a falling walk rate doesn't indicate much overall improvement. Guillen again seems likely to approach double-digits next year, but he'll need to play in more than 140 games to see the at-bats necessary to reach $10 in value, making him a risky pick above $9.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Gomez		461	122	.265	10	46	1	51	S
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		6		R
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	7		6		7		R

Gomez's rather surprising power surge continued in 2002 as he provided Tampa Bay with one of the few consistent offensive sources in their lineup. The Devil Rays still cut him loose in an effort to find a solid defensive shortstop, so Gomez will be lucky to find even another 400 at-bats in 2003. While his 1.01 G-F indicates his best power potential since his debut in 1993, he seems likely to struggle to reach more than a couple bucks of value next year. Since I don't see much upside in these skills, there's no reason for you to target Gomez unless he winds up with a starting job.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Royce Clayton		342	86	.251	7	35	5	51	S
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		8		7
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	6		5		9		12

Chicago prevented Clayton from improving his numbers with his standard late-season stat push by releasing him in early September. He posted a career-worst 3.44 #P/PA while displaying neither power potential nor plate discipline, and Clayton couldn't even help in stolen bases since he only attempted six steals. Despite these two unimpressive seasons with the White Sox, Clayton almost surely will continue starting at shortstop next year for some team, likely in either Milwaukee or Tampa Bay. His overall offensive upside merits a gamble of a couple bucks for a team desperate for a shortstop, but given the number of attractive roto options at shortstop in both leagues, you should only target Clayton as a potential MIF.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Santiago		222	54	.243	4	20	8	33	S
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	4		3
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	4		3

While Santiago's a much better option to start for Detroit in 2003 than Omar Infante, Santiago's current offensive skills suggest he'd benefit from more development time, especially since he hadn't played above A-ball before 2002. With limited patience or power potential, Santiago's 2003 value will depend mostly on his SB production, so you shouldn't view him as a primary shortstop option. He should develop into a promising roto contributor in a year or two, but as normal development patterns suggest he still needs a year at AAA, don't expect more than a couple bucks of value from Santiago next year.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Bordick		367	85	.232	8	36	7	37	S
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		7		4
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	4		3		8		7

Bordick seems just as likely to retire as to return to Baltimore in 2003, and while he broke Cal Ripken's record for consecutive errorless games at shortstop, Bordick contributed little to help the Orioles on offense. Either Melvin Mora or Brian Roberts offers a lot more immediate upside, and even though Bordick posted career-best marks of 4.00 #P/PA and a .88 G-F, I no longer view him as a viable roto option. If he's still playing in 2003, he might not hurt you for a buck or two, however you can't really count on any more fantasy production from Bordick at this point.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Felipe Lopez		282	64	.227	8	34	5	35	S
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	2		2		18		8
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	3		2		17		15

Lopez fell victim to Riccardi's fascination with Chris Woodward, and now he's reportedly heading out of Toronto as soon as Riccardi can find someone willing to deal a #2 or #3 starter. During a six-week stint back in the minors this year, Lopez compiled a .318/.419/.457 in 173 at-bats at AAA Syracuse, along with a 13/13 SB% and 29:37 BB:K, so while his plate discipline isn't perfect, he's ready for the majors. However he hasn't demonstrated his speed in Toronto, and displaying reduced power potential and a .68 contact rate this year didn't endear him to management. Right-handers also held him to a .618 OPS, making him a better fit for a developing team than one like Toronto with visions of Wild Card contention in 2003. I like Lopez's upside a lot, so see if you can grab him anywhere in single digits, although recognize he's likely to change teams in the near future.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Neifi Perez		554	131	.236	3	37	8	65	S
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	2		2		6		2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	4		3		7		6

Despite a dreadful 47% SB success rate, Perez managed positive draft value by swiping eight bases. He posted career lows of a .04 walk rate and 3.16 #P/PA, demonstrating less patience than in any other year of his career, and only an improvement in his contact rate from .88 to .90 kept his batting average much above the Mendoza Line. San Francisco claimed him last week, and now he might wind up as the starter for them at either middle infield position. Moving from one of the better hitters' parks in baseball to the second-best pitchers' park will annihilate the rest of his value, so Perez is definitely someone you don't want to own in 2003.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Omar Infante		72	24	.333	1	6	0	4	S
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2				1
2002 Age: 20	5x5:	1		1				2

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for my comments on Infante.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shane Halter		410	98	.239	10	39	0	46	S/3
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		7		6
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	2		2		7		6

As Halter's skills did not noticeably decline in any area, his drop in BA from .284 to .239 initially makes little sense. Of course, his batting skills didn't indicate he possessed the talent necessary to maintain a .280 average in the first place, so this loss of value isn't too unexpected. Barring an unexpected flash of intelligence by Tigers' management that allows prospects like Santiago and Infante to spend another year in the minors, Halter will be lucky to see 300 at-bats as he appears squeezed out of both Detroit's infield and outfield pictures. There's no reason to consider him as anything other than a reliable reserve pick in 2003.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John McDonald		264	66	.250	1	12	3	35	S/2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	2		1		-1

McDonald may be one of the best defensive players in professional baseball, but while he spent all year in the majors, he didn't even display a hint of offensive potential. He's never displayed much power, speed, or plate discipline at any level of the minors, so if he winds up starting in Cleveland's infield for a while, I can't imagine many circumstances where you should bother rostering him.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alfredo Amezaga		13	7	.538	0	2	1	3	S
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1				R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	0		0

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Anaheim Prospects for my comments on Amezaga.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Denny Hocking		260	65	.250	2	25	0	28	S/2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		3		R
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	1		1		3		1

The 177th and last AL position player to earn positive draft value in 2002, Hocking again will return to Minnesota as their top utilityman. Although we saw a little growth in his contact and walk rates, Minnesota's upcoming flood of prospects will keep Hocking's usefulness limited. He could earn a few dollars in 2003, but he's more likely to finish another season around a buck or two, so consider him only as a reserve pick.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Felix Escalona		157	34	.217	0	9	7	17	S/2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1				R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	0		0

San Francisco took Escalona in the Rule 5 draft, and almost promoted him straight from A-ball to the majors before they wisely waived him. Tampa claimed him as their fourth Rule 5 player, and even though he needs to head back to AA, he might wind up competing for the starting shortstop job if the Devil Rays don't sign anyone else. Since only Escalona's marginal speed kept him from finishing as one of the worst roto players in baseball, there's no reason to consider him for your team in 2003, and he wouldn't even be a good minor league pick given his rather limited ceiling.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Angel Berroa		75	17	.227	0	5	3	8	S
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0				1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		0				3

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for my comments on Berroa.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Moriarty		16	3	.188	0	3	0	0	S
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-1		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Baltimore Prospects for my comments on Moriarty.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Freddy Sanchez		16	3	.188	0	2	0	3	S/2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Boston Prospects for my comments on Sanchez.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Lamb		10	1	.100	0	0	0	0	S
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-2

Spending most of the year with AAA Edmonton, Lamb compiled a .309/.377/.448 in 440 at-bats, along with 10 HR, 72 RBI, 72 R, 2/8 SB%, and 45:57 BB:K. He's always displayed very good plate discipline in the upper minors, although we can't expect to see much power from him in less hitter-friendly parks. Lamb deserves a chance in Spring Training to win a spot as a back-up infielder, and he probably won't hurt you for a buck if breaks camp with a team. However he's far more likely to spend another year back in AAA.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Caruso		20	2	.100	0	0	0	3	S
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2

I'm extremely shocked that the AL shortstop with the least roto value only fell to $-2, especially when at least one American Leaguer at every other position finished the year at $-3 or worse. Caruso finished the year with AA Chattanooga for Cincinnati, but he didn't demonstrate any skill improvement at AAA Omaha, Kansas City, or Chattanooga. Caruso remains one of the least disciplined hitters in baseball, and his lack of patience likely will keep him out of the majors for the majority of his career. I see no indication that he'll merit rostering at any point in the foreseeable future.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you can't acquire an elite shortstop, you should target second-tier players with decent power potential and some quantitative upside. Guys like Carlos Guillen, Royce Clayton, and even Chris Gomez can accumulate 40 RBI and reach double digits between homers and steals, providing a nice statistical boost for a minimum investment.