Today's Fantasy Rx

By only planning on running each week of positions for six days, I can either spend Sunday writing Sunday Morning Musings as I managed a few weekends last year, or I can break one of the articles over two days. While I'm pleased with how the NL Catchers are going, they're taking longer than I expected, so that's why I'm taking my time finishing up the major leaguers before covering the minor leaguers tomorrow.

National League Catchers with Draft Value below $0

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Trey Lunsford		3	2	.667	0	1	0	0	C
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of San Francisco Prospects for my comments on Lunsford.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike DiFelice		174	40	.230	4	19	0	17	C
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-2
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-1		0		-1

After only exceeding a .682 OPS once in any full season of his career, a .230/.297/.362 doesn't surprise me at all. While he managed career-high marks of a .40 BB:K and .10 walk rate, and a .93 G-F almost matches his career-best .91 from 2001, these still are not skills that merit ownership in nearly any roto league. We can't expect him to wind up in a situation in the foreseeable future where he'd be a good gamble given his BA downside.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Bako		234	55	.235	4	20	0	24	C
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		0
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		0		0

He continued posting a severe platoon split, managing a pathetic .167/.194/.200 in thirty at-bats against lefties while compiling a poor .245/.309/.348 against righties. After five seasons, Bako's neither registered an OPS below .620 or above .690, a terrible accomplishment even for a catcher. Nothing in his skills suggests any upside, however I found one interesting split, an .804 OPS in 78 at-bats in domes, compared to a .533 in open stadiums. Over the previous three seasons he posted a .717 OPS in enclosed fields and a .610 everywhere else, suggesting that the Brewers may want to consider only starting Bako when the roof is closed. You should likely only consider him in leagues with daily transactions where you can sub someone else anytime Milwaukee looks free of precipitation.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Walt McKeel		13	4	.308	0	0	0	1	C
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Colorado Prospects for my comments on McKeel.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Humberto Cota		17	5	.294	0	0	0	2	C
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Pittsburgh Prospects for my comments on Cota.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Ross		10	2	.200	1	2	0	2	C
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for my comments on Ross.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gregg Zaun		185	41	.222	3	24	1	18	C
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		4		4
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-1		-1		4		2

Zaun never seemed comfortable in Houston this year and posted fairly awful numbers after many analysts, including us, ranked him as a very solid sleeper. He struggled badly against righties, only managing a .197/.252/.299, and he was even worse on the road at .149/.194/.209. Without a .761 OPS against lefties and a .701 OPS at home, the Astros might have considered moving him to any interested team, especially since while these splits are bad, his skills look even worse. Zaun barely managed a .33 BB:K and .06 walk rate, both easily ranking as career worsts. There's nothing here that even suggests a rebound, however based on his impressive skill history, we'll be interested in Zaun for a buck or two given his historical upside.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Raul Chavez		4	1	.250	0	0	0	1	C
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1

With John Buck still a year or two away and both Ausmus and Zaun encountering difficulties as they age, Chavez might see more time in Houston in the near future. Unfortunately his offense disintegrated in his third straight year at AAA New Orleans where he only managed a .228/.278/.279 performance. His weak skills and terrible stats this season make him a poor play for 2003.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Charles Johnson		244	53	.217	6	36	0	18	C
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		3		12
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-1		-1		4		11

Moving to Colorado should cause both his price and value to surge. Thankfully he buried one intriguing improvement in an otherwise poor year: his walk rate jumped from .08 to .12, and since Coors will reduce his strikeouts and boost his power, he's likely to approach 20 homers in 2003 even if he can't remain healthy all year. I also at least expect him to post an average BA, so he's probably an acceptable buy until bidding hits double-digits.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Mahoney		29	6	.207	0	3	0	2	C
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Chicago (N) Prospects for my comments on Mahoney.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Johnny Estrada		17	2	.118	0	2	0	0	C
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2				2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-2

Lieberthal's extension seemingly buries Estrada since the Phillies have no plans to trade either catcher, yet the fragility of the Phillies' starter suggests Estrada should see 200 or more at-bats a year even if he stays a backup for a few seasons. However his .279/.322/.417 performance at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL) was only a slight improvement over his 2001 marks, and he's displayed little plate discipline and an unimpressive G-F rate when in the majors. I understand why Philadelphia likes his long-term upside, but I can't see him breaking $5 in the next couple of years. Spending a few bucks here shouldn't hurt you, although I don't consider Estrada someone to specifically target.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wiki Gonzalez		164	36	.220	1	20	0	16	C
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		6		4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-1		7		5

San Diego acquired Mike Rivera to provide competition for Gonzalez, and unless Wiki can rebound from a mostly disastrous year by the end of Spring Training, he may remain a backup despite the seasons remaining on his long-term deal. Unfortunately his skill trends suggest he might not possess a starter's upside as while his 27:24 BB:K in 164 AB is outstanding, a 2.47 G-F gives him negligible power potential. Of course he posted three years of a G-F between 1.40 and 1.50 prior to his injuries, so a .290 season with 15 homers and 60 RBI looks attainable within the next few years. The value of Gonzalez on your draft day seems directly tied to his performance in the spring. Spending a couple bucks here could be a wise investment, but even going to $5 seems foolhardy given the downside he displayed in 2002.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Girardi		234	53	.226	1	13	1	19	C
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-1
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-1		-1

I'm not sure where he'll land since the Cubs have little interest in keeping him, but I'll be surprised if he leaves the Midwest, and a move to Comiskey might make the most sense since the Sox need some veteran catching help. However Girardi also offers no positive offensive contribution, so retirement doesn't seem out of the question. With his .226/.275/.291 performance in 2002 and skills like a .07 walk rate and 2.27 G-F, you cannot roster him even if he winds up in Colorado.

43.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Steve Torrealba		17	1	.059	0	1	0	1	C
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-2

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for my comments on Torrealba.

44.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcus Jensen		35	4	.114	1	4	0	2	C
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-2

Even though Jensen's displayed good plate discipline and a little power for several years in the upper minors, I'm still a little surprised Milwaukee promoted him after a .230/.347/.333 performance at AAA Indianapolis. Of course the Brewers grew extremely desperate for anyone who could catch by the end of 2002, and Jensen's recent history suggests his .114/.200/.200 line was far below reasonable expectations. He's a risk even as roster filler until he displays decent skills above AAA for a couple months.

45.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wil Nieves		72	13	.181	0	3	1	2	C
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of San Diego Prospects for my comments on Nieves.

46.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Henry Blanco		221	45	.204	6	22	0	17	C
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-2		-2		R
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-2		-1

Atlanta will continue starting Javy Lopez on a regular basis seemingly indefinitely since their primary alternative somehow offers a significant offensive downgrade. Blanco may warrant one of the better defensive reputations in baseball, but his weak contact rates have kept him from breaking even a .236 BA. Despite a respectable walk rate and some power potential, I fail to see a scenario in which rostering Blanco would be a logical option.

47.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Raul Casanova		88	16	.182	1	8	0	3	C
MIL/BAL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		5		2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-4		-2		5		2

We obviously expected a nice uptick in value from Casanova after his G-F ratio dropped from 3.33 in 1999 to 1.88 in 2000 and a .81 in 2001. Yet instead of emerging as a solid offensive option, Casanova suffered from injuries and ineffectiveness all year as his G-F jumped to 1.46. I see sufficient patience and power potential here to suggest moderate long-term potential for Casanova, but $5 now looks like his ceiling instead of a point on an upward growth curve.

48.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Javier Cardona		39	4	.103	0	2	0	2	C
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-3

Cardona displayed zero offensive competence by posting a .103/.143/.128 line in 39 at-bats even before he lost the second half of the season to injury. He's never demonstrated decent skills other than moderate power potential and fleeting plate patience, so expecting him to emerge as a solid starter in the near future seems extremely optimistic. While he holds a little long-term value, I'll want to see either a good performance in 300 AAA at-bats or a couple decent months as a major league backup before feeling comfortable in rostering him.

49.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Keith Osik		100	16	.160	2	11	0	6	C
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-5		-3		-2
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-4		-3		-2

Humberto Cota's last option expired in 2002, so the Pirates finally look ready to let Osik depart. He was the fourth worst fantasy position player in the NL this year while finishing as the least valuable catcher, and while he's posted some solid streaks in the past, his performance has been brutal for two straight years. You cannot roster Osik unless he posts some decent stats and skills over a few months to prove he's recovered from this disaster.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The bottom eight NL catchers displayed almost uniformly poor skills, as did the bottom six AL catchers, allowing us to form a simple conclusion: never draft a catcher with negligible upside. After the best 10 or so starters in each league go for a couple bucks or more, you should be able to find two catchers able to provide good numbers if you spend more than a buck on the best of the remaining 14-16 backstops. There's almost never a reason to roster a Jorge Fabregas or Keith Osik, so as long as you commit a minimum of $5 or so to your two catchers, you should end up with better production than at least a few of your fellow owners.