Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Catchers with Positive Draft Value over $5

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Piazza		478	134	.280	33	98	0	69	C
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	18		14		23		34
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	18		13		23		26

While he didn't post the $20-30 season to which we've grown accustomed, Piazza remained the most productive roto catcher in the National League, though he surprisingly didn't earn more than IRod. Piazza looks likely to remain behind the plate for a couple more years, and only Justin Huber's potential development appears able to push Piazza over to first. We also see some positive trends in his skills, as his G-F has held at a little over 1.00 for four seasons, including a 1.03 this year, after several years in the 1.40 range, a development that coincided with his relocation to New York. Although his .903 OPS is the lowest he's posted since his debut in 1992, he remains an incredible offensive force, even posting a career-best 3.81 #P/PA. He'll maintain his power while his selectivity improves, and his quantitative numbers should improve in 2003 if he receives any support from his teammates. There's no reason he shouldn't remain around $20 next year, though we'd have trouble bidding much higher under most circumstances due to lingering age and health questions.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Kendall		545	154	.283	3	44	15	59	C
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	15		11		21		18
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	14		11		20		22

I definitely didn't expect to see Kendall appear here above Paul Lo Duca and Benito Santiago, but his steals and BA contribution place him only a few bucks behind Piazza in overall value. The problem here is that his skills are deteriorating, even though he's actually outwardly improving. Kendall's contact rate has risen from .86 in 2000 to .92 in 2001 and now .95 in 2002. However his walk rate collapsed from 14% to 7% last year, and only bounced back to 9% in 2002. At the same time, his pitches per plate appearances dropped from a career-best 4.02 in 1999 to 3.95, 3.75, and now 3.68 #P/PA in 2002. We also saw the end of a promising three-year improvement in his G-F ratio; Kendall jumped from 1.20 in 2001 to 1.72 GF in 2002, sharply reducing his power upside. So he's making more contact by swinging at pitches earlier in the count instead of waiting for pitches he can drive. I'm at least pleased that his SB% bounced back to 65% after a woeful 48% in 2001, however I also don't expect him to approach two-dozen steals again. Considering his increasing impatience and the small likelihood he'll return to double-digits in homers in 2003, you probably should stop bidding on him in the early teens.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eli Marrero		397	104	.262	18	66	14	63	C/O
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		11		1		4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	14		11		2		6

Marrero's five-category contribution ranks as among the best surprises for NL owners this year as LaRussa managed to find him the necessary playing time to take advantage of his latent skills despite only giving Marrero 44 games at catcher. A career-high in at-bats allowed him to post career-best marks in nearly every skill, and Marrero's 88% stolen base success rate also ranks as a promising feather in his statistical cap. He's easily capable of a 20-20 season with slightly more playing time, and with J.D. Drew potentially missing much of the first half due to rehab from off-season surgery, Marrero could reach fifteen homers and 10 steals by the All-Star break if he hits second every day. The most promising mark in his skills' set is a .83 G-F, almost half of the 1.61 he posted in 2001 and a welcome reversal after watching his G-F ratio increase in each season of his career. With this added patience, power potential, and incredible instincts on the bases, Marrero might even challenge Piazza for fantasy supremacy among National League catchers. Target him very highly in keeper leagues, and budget for him in drafts more than you're willing to commit to Jason Kendall.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Benito Santiago		478	133	.278	16	74	4	56	C
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		10		1		3
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	13		10		2		2

No one expected Santiago to finish second among NL catcher in RBI, and I doubt anyone thought his 74 RBI would be nearer Mike Piazza's 88 RBI than Paul Lo Duca's 59 RBI in third. Santiago contributed about $4 of value in BA, HR, and RBI while also providing a couple bucks of Runs and even a dollar of steals. We can't really overestimate the impact of Santiago coming to bat with Bonds on base over 50% of the time, and even if the Giants lose Kent, Santiago will retain much of this value if he continues to bat within two spaces behind Bonds in the order. Skill-wise, his walk rate and contact rate increased a little while his #P/PA and G-F slightly decreased, so even though I don't expect double-digit homers from a catcher who'll turn 38 during Spring Training, he should earn double-digit value on his single-digit price.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Lo Duca		580	163	.281	10	64	3	74	C
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	13		10		15		23
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	13		10		16		20

Instead of avenging his All-Star snub by improving on his .842 first-half OPS, Lo Duca slumped to only a .609 OPS after the break while posting a paltry .635 against Arizona and All-Star manager Bob Brenly. His contact rate edged up as his walk rate slightly slipped, but I don't see anything in his stats that truly explains a drop from 25 homers to 10 despite an extra 120 at-bats. The most logical possibility is he lost a little power, as evidenced by his G-F going from 1.08 to 1.37 in 2002, causing his homers to fall slightly short of the wall, and thus explaining a rise from 28 to 38 doubles. Unfortunately that change, combined with a 39-point drop in batting average, cut his roto value in half. Lo Duca remains one of the best catchers in the NL and a solid buy in 2003, but I don't envision remaining in any bidding that approaches $20.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Lieberthal		476	133	.279	15	52	0	46	C
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		8		9		12
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	10		8		9		11

Lieberthal signed a three-year, $23.5M contract extension in mid-August, perhaps not coincidentally about halfway through one of the best half-seasons of his career. He jumped his OPS from .727 before the All-Star game to .868 while nicely improving both his walk and contact rates. We also could see increases in his quantitative numbers with Marlon Byrd replacing Doug Glanville and the potential improvement of the entire Philly infield. They appear likely to sign at least two free agents to man the corners as Rollins enters his third year and Polanco shifts to platoon with Marlon Anderson at second. I'm somewhat concerned due to indications that his patience at the plate is decreasing and a rise in his G-F from .68 to .88, but his overall skills still appear fairly solid. The question regarding Lieberthal will remain his ability to avoid injury, and his spotty health history only makes him a reasonable play in the very low double-digits. He's already injured himself this off-season in a golf cart accident that required him to undergo knee surgery, though he'll supposedly be all right by Spring Training.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Michael Barrett		376	99	.263	12	49	6	41	C
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		7		4		4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	8		6		5		3

The April All-Star maintained sufficient value to finish the season as one of only eight catchers above $5 in value, although he barely would have broken $0 if not for his great start and a solid August in which he stole four bases. Barrett displayed little offensive talent during most of the other months, and nothing in his skills suggests an overly promising immediate future. Fortunately one stat jumps out at me, a 3.88 #P/PA, a tremendous improvement from the 3.30 or so he's averaged the last three years. Seeing an extra pitch every two plate appearances demonstrates greatly increased patience and selectivity, which we see reflected in his improved walk rate(.05 in '01 to .11 in '02), G-F(2.04 in '01 to 1.71 in '02), and even a worse contact rate(.89 in '01 to .83 in '02). The nasty side effect of seeing more pitches is that a player's strikeouts almost always rise as some of those extra pitches wind up as strikes, but I still believe we're observing positive development in Barrett's skills. He's a relatively low-risk play for 2003 anywhere in single digits.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Redmond		256	78	.305	2	28	0	19	C
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		5		3		2
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	5		4		3		1

Florida's newly anointed starting catcher finally started hitting right-handers this year after five years of an annoying platoon split: .346/.409/.462 vs. LHP yet only .258/.324/.303 vs. RHP. This year he managed a .312/.381/.398 against righties while struggling for a .286/.346/.357 against lefties, suggesting that he should maintain his .297 career BA even with more playing time. Redmond should break $10 if he finds 400 at-bats, however he'll need to fight off Ramon Castro, who's minor league numbers indicate far greater overall potential than Redmond. Redmond's primary weakness is an almost complete lack of power, and a jump from a 1.68 G-F in 2001 to a 2.25 G-F in 2002 leaves him with a career mark of 1.69 G-F. I don't see him as a good gamble at anything above five or six dollars, although I also don't see him earning less than a few bucks under almost any circumstances, making him a relatively safe bet for an unproven starter.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While only four of the six catchers that earned $10 or more returned a profit, I see some nice bargains in the next tier. There remains little incentive for anyone to overbid for catchers by more than a buck or two since a few catchers bought on Dollar Days approach double-digit value every year.