November 19th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Welcome to Rotohelp's Second Annual Catcher Week! Like last year, having not yet found another good post-season wrap-up of each position that includes specific dollar values, we're again writing our own.
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
Mirabelli remains a very competent backup on both sides of the ball except his generally low BA limits his roto usefulness. He definitely owns intriguing upside with career ratios like a 3.94 #P/PA and .89 G-F, and even his .14 walk rate and .51 BB:K are fairly decent. The problem is his terrible .74 contact rate, which prevents him putting the ball in play on the consistent basis necessary for him to post an OPS much above his .727 career mark. We'd definitely be interested in him if he ever winds up on a team with a very healthy hitting environment, and he's a reasonable option at a buck to insure you at least receive a little quantitative production at catcher.
In limited playing time as the Yankees' backup, Widger hit a fairly empty .297 while demonstrating some of the skills that kept him starting for the Expos for most of four years. Both his 3.69 #P/PA and 1.00 G-F are approximately at his career marks, though unfortunately he's still displaying the same plate discipline problems that forced him into the International Brotherhood of Back-Up Catchers. Anyone with an IBBUC card is guaranteed to remain gainfully employed at the AAAA level through their 35th birthdays, so we'll see Widger on the outskirts of the majors for the next several years. He only helps fantasy teams by providing a little power potential if you can afford a similar BA hit, although he doesn't hurt as much in limited playing time such as he found during 2002.
While I'm somewhat surprised Texas didn't pick up his 2003 option, this extended list demonstrates the wealth of available alternatives, and most of these players are younger than Haselman. Many of them don't possess the power potential of a 1.19 G-F, but his ability to hit flyballs appears to be his only remaining quality offensive skill. His OPS has fallen from .790 in 2000 to .731 last year and now a .632, and as he'll turn 37 in May, he's likely near the end of the line. I don't recommend drafting Haselman in the spring given he'll probably only fight for a backup job as an NRI.
I don't know what either the Blue Jays' front office or manager Carlos Tosca saw in Huckaby's quite unimpressive minor league history, but they essentially wasted almost 300 plate appearances on someone with no chance of offensive success. My only thought is that is game-calling is so good that Toronto wanted him to help their young pitching, however neither Huckaby nor Tom Wilson ever appeared to start on a consistent basis. With Kevin Cash less than a year away from assuming the starting job, don't expect much help from Huckaby, and since none of his skills give any indication of roto potential, avoid him next year regardless of his role.
Paul's two main assets are a modicum of power and decent speed but he's never really demonstrated acceptable plate discipline at any level. However, despite an OPS that's dropped from .761 in 2000 to .737 last year and now .581 in 2002, I see some hints of improvement. His 3.99 #P/PA was a career-best, and a .86 G-F is a welcome improvement even though he still owns a 1.42 career G-F. Between these two marks and historically respectable batting averages, Paul seems like a decent sleeper if he winds up starting next year. I wouldn't bid more than two bucks or so, but you might find a nice bargain if Chicago gives him an extended look in the majors.
Hernandez probably posted the most disappointing numbers among AL catchers even though he displayed a little power negated by a poor BA. However his contact rate remained stuck at .84 while his walk rate's risen to .11, giving some indication that his BA should rebound above the league average next season. Unfortunately, after two seasons of a 1.25 GF, he's been stuck at a 1.45 G-F for the last two years, so there's little indication he'll even rebound to the dozen or more homers we'd begun expecting from him. Hernandez's perceived value definitely seems higher than the price suggested by his skills, so unless you can grab him at a noteworthy discount, let someone else overbid; the odds of him remaining at this level appear far greater than the likelihood he'll reach his potential in 2003.
I think the Twins erred by exercising Prince's option and keeping him for $450K rather than promoting Javier Valentin from his AAA purgatory of the last couple years. While I realize that Minnesota possesses one of the better young starters in baseball in Pierzynski and maybe the best overall prospect of any team in Joe Mauer, Prince's offensive output doesn't justify a roster space given the number of promising right-handed catchers that aren't 38. He's never exceeded 200 at-bats in the majors despite spending at least three games in the big leagues in each of the last fifteen seasons. With unimpressive plate discipline and a BA that hasn't broken .240 in a few years, even the hint of power potential doesn't make him a good buy. You should avoid 38-year-old position players in general, and Prince's weak skills make him an unacceptable roto target except as an occasional injury replacement.
Like several other older catchers, Myers' weak BA negates his mildly useful power contribution. Oakland wisely let him go rather than exercise his an unreasonably lofty option, although he could easily wind up back with Oakland or a similar team that wants a veteran lefty backup. He's at least displayed good plate discipline in three of the last four years, but the combination of a career-best 3.96 #P/PA and career-worst 2.10 G-F indicates he's simply avoiding making good contact. As Myers' BA has essentially lodged at .223 the past three years, I no longer see a logical reason to roster him, like Tom Prince, as anything but a mid-season injury replacement.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for my comments on Martinez.
Even more than older brother Bengie, Jose, almost one year younger, shows no indication of developing into a competent offensive player. He never even hit 20 extra-base hits in a year until he spent a season at AAA Salt Lake, and I see little indication of plate discipline. Career-bests of a 3.78 #P/PA and 1.00 G-F suggest he might slide into Positive Draft Value next year, although there's not enough visible upside right now even to gamble a dollar.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for my comments on Wathan.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Oakland Prospects for my comments on McKay. He signed a major league deal with Milwaukee about a week ago, but he'll compete with Roberto Machado, Paul Bako, and Javier Valentin for playing time, and McKay's probably displayed less offense skill over the last two years than any of the others, making him a poor fantasy play at this time.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for my comments on Brito.
He'll have a job as long as Pat Gillick remains a GM, so expect Borders to split one more season between Tacoma and Seattle before retiring as Gillick's chauffeur so he can read in the car. Of course, if you're desperate for batting average help when he's promoted next September, you should know that he went 3-for-6 in 2001 and 2-for-4 in 2002, so consider a buck of FAAB if 2003's 1-for-2 would be useful.
He's not a rookie after spending much of 1998 and 1999 in the majors, but as part of the posse Tom Kelly excommunicated from the Twins' roster, he's torn up AAA for two years and earned his way back to the majors. Anyone, particularly a catcher, who can go 130-for-455 for a .286/.346/.501 with 21 HR, 80 RBI, 68 R, 0/1 SB%, and 41:96 BB:K deserves a long look in the big leagues. Following last week's trade to Milwaukee, he'll have a chance in Spring Training to earn significant playing time with the Brewers, and we'll be happy to spend a few bucks to roster him.
We obviously held significant expectations for Fletcher this year, but his hitting ability never reappeared after vanishing in 2001. He missed the middle of the May with a right ankle sprain, and with new manager Carlos Tosca giving playing time precedence to Ken Huckaby and Tom Wilson, Fletcher retired on July 26th. In his fourteen-year career, Fletcher posted a .269/.318/.423 with 124 HR, 583 RBI, 377 R, and 2 SB.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for my comments on Bard.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Chicago (A) Prospects for my comments on Olivo.
Splitting the year between AAA Oklahoma(PCL) and AAA Omaha(PCL), Ortiz went 42-for-181 for .232/.320/.287 with 1 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R, 1/2 SB%, and 22:31 BB:K. Aside from respectable plate discipline at the AAA level and some demonstrated patience in the majors, Ortiz shows no overall offensive competence. There's no indication he'll hit for a decent average or for any power, so definitely avoid him for the foreseeable future.
Molina posted a .471 OPS in 146 AAA at-bats and couldn't even manage a .700 OPS at AA. His career major league OPS is .547. I think you know the answer to "Izzy a good fantasy pick?".
With one year left on the three-year, $7.5M deal he signed prior to the 2001 season, Fordyce should again return as Baltimore's back-up catcher. Unfortunately, his offensive skills have almost completely vanished since he received that contract, and a career-worst 2.07 G-F indicates his power potential is effectively gone. However he still posted an .800+ OPS in two different seasons back in 1999 and 2000, so if given my choice between Fordyce and one of these other dozen or two catchers with no skills, I'd rather own Fordyce since he at least once demonstrated serious roto upside.
Lunar only caught two innings in Baltimore and didn't even get the chance to bat after entering Spring Training as the probable favorite for the starting job, making him the only American Leaguer in these rankings without any offensive statistics. At AAA Rochester(IL), he only went 28-for-145 for .193/.234/.241 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 1/1 SB%, and 4:27 BB:K, horrible numbers even for a catcher. However 2002 was only his first year in AAA as both Atlanta and Baltimore rushed him up the ladder due to his defensive prowess. Given his obvious offensive shortcomings, there's no reason for him to spend 2003 any higher than AA, and he definitely doesn't belong on anyone's draft list.
While Brown's spent parts of each of the last seven seasons in the majors, he's only exceeded five games played and seventeen at-bats in two of those years. He split this year between AAA Durham and AAA Pawtucket, but a .687 OPS doesn't suggest he's ready for even a regular back-up role. The only bright spot in his major league record is a .73 G-F, however he seems to lack the plate discipline to take advantage of his power, making him a poor fantasy selection.
Since breaking into the majors in 1996, this is the first year that Fasano hasn't caught at least a dozen games in the big leagues. His .458 AAA SLG remains a decent accomplishment for a catcher, and his .84 career G-F supports his power potential, however he strikes out far too often for most managers. In deeper leagues he's a reasonable Dollar Days choice if he earns a spot as a back-up, however after moving through six franchises in the last two years, Fasano doesn't appear likely to remain with one team for more than a couple months.
Oakland scored one of the best coups of the off-season by grabbing Meluskey after he refused Detroit's idiotic attempt to outright him off their 40-man roster. He's reportedly a clubhouse problem, however if Ken Macha keeps him in line, the Athletics have added a potential starting DH who's an acceptable catcher. Of course he's basically missed all of the last two seasons due to severe shoulder and back injuries, so we don't know if he'll be healthy enough to play regularly. However when he played 117 games for Houston in 2000, he posted a .300/.401/.487 with a 55:75 BB:K in 337 AB, 3.83 #P/PA, and .86 G-F, giving him an overall superior offensive profile to 2002 steal Scott Hatteberg. Meluskey has $20 potential and will qualify at catcher in most leagues, making him a superb Spring Training sleeper.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Tampa Bay Prospects for my comments on Hoover.
Having signed a minor league deal with Detroit a couple days ago, Walbeck will likely enter 2003 as the Tigers' primary backup since they'll likely purchase his contract at the end of Spring Training. Of course he still posted a .543 OPS at AAA Toledo before managing even worse stats than his career .607 OPS after his May promotion. Fortunately for Walbeck, Detroit respects his ability to handle a young pitching staff, so he's likely to remain employed in the majors even as he continues to show no offensive competence. Avoid him in all fantasy leagues unless absolutely desperate for at-bats.
Rivera pounded AA pitching in 2001 for 33 homers and a .289/.368/.578, and while Detroit stupidly rushed him to the majors for half of 2002, he managed 20 homers and a .249/.341/.525 in only 265 at-bats at AAA Toledo. More impressively, his walk rate jumped from .11 to .13 as his contact rate only slipped from .77 to .76. You should essentially ignore his major league numbers since he should have spent all year at AAA, and I'm absolutely stunned that Detroit would just give him away to San Diego for Gene Kingsale, who Detroit could have claimed on waivers in June. The Padres now own a potential 30 homer catcher, and even if Rivera struggles in one of the few parks almost as bad for hitters as Comerica, he's still likely to approach double-digit value as a starter.
Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for my comments on Cash.
Castillo's .374 OPS was so abhorrent that the Yankees weren't even comfortable with him as a defensive backup. He's never posted an OPS above .670 in more than a dozen at-bats and a decent .09 career rate isn't acceptable without any secondary offensive skills. I can't imagine circumstances under which I'd want to roster Castillo.
Perez posted a $-3 even though he wasn't even the worst fantasy catcher in Cleveland. However he hasn't even hinted at any potential to contribute to roto teams since 1999, making him one of the worst possible catching targets out there. Definitely avoid Perez if he even finds a major league job in 2003.
His offense has declined to the point where he couldn't even find playing time over Milwaukee's terrible backstop duo. While he demonstrated a little plate discipline while with Anaheim, his horrendous overall production leaves him unworthy of any fantasy consideration.
Johnson's fall from solid $1 sleeper to $-4 BA sinkhole ranks among the more surprising disasters of the year. Looking back over the past few years, I understand why he appeared ready to emerge as a good roto option due to career bests of a .74 BB:K and .77 G-F in 2001, however those marks now look like aberrations rather than the start of a positive trend. At least he still managed a decent .11 walk rate even as his G-F rose to 1.09 and he posted a career-worst 3.74 #P/PA. Johnson recently signed a $500K contract for 2003, so we'll see him in the majors for most of next year with some team, but I can't recommend him at this time.
Inge's AAA Toledo numbers of .262/.380/.554 with a .69 BB:K, .17 walk rate, and .75 contact rate look extremely promising until you notice he only batted 65 times over 21 games. Nothing in his minor league statistical record indicates any offensive promise outside of moderate doubles' potential, and his pitiful major league performance makes trading Mike Rivera even more baffling. I see a little development in his secondary skills as he's now seeing 4.21 pitches per plate appearance and he dropped his G-F down to 1.01, however no one with a .69 contact rate will help fantasy teams unless they possess exceptional power potential; Inge doesn't. Unless your league prizes defensive numbers over all other stats, avoid Inge at almost any cost.
Even Craig Paquette and Greg Vaughn couldn't manage a $-6 "value" this year, leaving Diaz as the worst American League position player in standard roto. The Indians' joy at possessing two top catching prospects is mitigated by the knowledge that they owe Diaz $1.75M in 2003, $2.5M in 2004, and a $400K buyout in lieu of a $3.25M option in 2005. Of course, a smart organization would take advantage of this situation by letting Diaz start to hopefully interest some potential trade partner while Josh Bard begins his career as a backup and future starter Victor Martinez spends the year in AAA. Regardless of Cleveland's situation, Diaz's poor overall offensive skills make him a bad fantasy gamble even if his improved contact rate makes him more likely to post a .280 BA after three seasons of averaging about .277. You should probably avoid rostering him until both his skills and stats improve unless you're willing to risk another disaster like his 2002.
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