November 18th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Welcome to Rotohelp's Second Annual Catcher Week! Like last year, having not yet found another good post-season wrap-up of each position that includes specific dollar values, we're again writing our own. Beginning today with catchers, we'll spend most of each week reviewing each position in ascending order from those with the least depth, like catcher and shortstop, to those with the most variety: outfielders, starting pitching, and relief pitching.
The articles will generally appear in the following order: Although we realize that not every owner is interested in the specifics included in the following information, we hope to give the rest of you a valuable tool in analyzing past history to improve future performance. American League Catchers with Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
IRod missed another six weeks due to injury in 2002, however he still managed to earn more than any other AL catcher as he provided at least a little help in all five categories, although his BA accounted for a significant amount of his value. Unfortunately, the experts again paid too much to roster him because of the unreasonable expectation that he'd remain healthy. I suspect we'll probably see him average 450 plate appearances over the next few years, so don't expect miracles like 550+ at-bats from someone with an ever-growing injury history like Rodriguez. However he also set career-best marks with a 3.48 #P/PA and 1.08 G-F, the latter continuing a promising three-year trend. We still might see another power spike from Rodriguez, although his 2003 value will depend largely on which ballpark he calls home next season.
Jorge Posada managed the second best roto total among AL catchers this year, but he only contributed overly useful numbers in the three power categories. However he managed career-highs in doubles and RBI as most of his skills leveled off somewhere between his 2000 and 2001 marks. The problem with Posada is that his effectiveness at a very weak position combines with his elevated media profile to constantly keep his perceived value above reasonable expectations. We'd need to see either a sharp uptick in homers or a surprisingly high BA to predict him above $20 at any point, and since he's already in his 30s, we may have seen his best seasons.
Over 50% of Pierzynski's value rests with his batting average, and since we can't expect anyone with a 13:61 BB:K in 440 at-bats to maintain a .300+ BA, I'll be surprised if he finishes next season among the five best AL catchers. His plate discipline regressed this year as he fell to a career worst 3.00 #P/PA, and a 1.64 G-F is an unfortunate jump back above his career average. With Joe Mauer no more than three years away, Pierzynski's time as Minnesota's starter is necessarily limited, so he's even a poor acquisition target in keeper leagues. I suspect most leagues will overvalue him by at least a few dollars considering his media profile thanks to the Twins' playoff run, so you should probably only own him in 2003 if he's already on your roster at a nice discount now.
Now that he's secured a $7M, 2-year deal, Wilson looks ready to begin the standard mid-30s decline of most catchers. His .77 contact rate is the worst mark of his career and he hasn't been below a .05 walk rate or .22 BB:K since his rookie season. Wilson's power potential likely peaked last year, and as he'll continue to play home games in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors, he looks like a regular $1 catcher next year. Almost all his value lies in batting average, and he's only exceeded .278 twice in his career. The Mariners better keep Ben Davis since despite Wilson's impressive 2002, I expect they'll need a new starter within the next two years.
We didn't expect Varitek to reach this level due to lingering power troubles because of last year's wrist injury, however he stayed healthy far more than we predicted, earning this value without any positive batting average contribution. Unfortunately almost all his ratios slipped to their lowest levels since his rookie year. Perhaps the only bright spot was a return to a 1.20 G-F, the same mark Varitek managed in 2000 and a nice improvement from a 1.48 G-F in 2001. We might see a small power jump next year, however I don't think he'll rise above $10. Of course, regardless of his roto potential, the Red Sox lack any catching prospects that appear close to pushing him out, so expect this Varitek to remain Boston's backstop Guardian for the next two years.
The trade to Colorado provided him the necessary boost to finish the season as one of only six catchers with five or more dollars in roto value who began the year in the AL. His BA accounts for half that amount, so I would be appropriately shocked if he ever returns to this level given his age and diminishing skills. Alomar's averaged about 250 plate appearances each season over the past four years, and we don't even know if he'll find regular playing time on any team in 2003. As always, he remains a $1 gamble who could return any value between $-5 and $5 depending on his health, surrounding lineup, and resulting performance.
Davis' main attribute is that he only turns 26 in March, so a normal hitter just should be entering his peak years while many catchers often will see later power development. That's fortunate for Davis since he's displayed little indication of developing any offensive prowess. He edged up to a .717 OPS this year on the strength of an improved slugging percentage, fueled partially by a G-F drop from 1.20 to 1.03, but Davis also posted a career-worst 3.46 #P/PA. You can probably count on him earning a dollar or two next year, and he's obviously at the right age to jump a few bucks in value, but I wouldn't invest more than $2-3 at most considering he's still Wilson's back-up.
I doubt anyone predicted Flaherty to perform better than Hall this year, but Tampa's insane management and Hall's slow start allowed Flaherty to post impressive numbers for a couple of weeks, allowing him to finish with slightly greater roto value than Hall. However we can't expect Flaherty to contribute BA help in the future after a career-worst .82 contact rate, although we might see him maintain a few bucks in the power categories as his G-F has dropped from 1.11 in 1999 to .89, .83, and now .63 in 2002. We should probably slot him at a buck or two assuming he winds up as a platoonmate for someone like Brent Mayne, but don't expect any profit here.
Hall's season ranks among the biggest roto disappointments in the game and likely severely impacted the standings of several leagues. Dropping from an expected $15-20 return on a $15 investment to a $-2 BA contribution and unimpressive quanitative numbers is enough to cost teams a few points in the batting categories, and even though Hall wound up with passable full season stats, he couldn't even beat out teammate John Flaherty. At least he excelled when returned to the minors, and as the sole catcher on Tampa's 40-man roster, he's practically assured of a starting job in 2003. We also saw nice improvement in his plate discipline numbers while in the majors, and he continues to hold a G-F around 1.00. At this time we're comfortable recommending Hall at up to $10 next year, and in one league where we own him heading into his option year, we're strongly considering at least a one-year extension to $10 since we anticipate a nice profit based on his hopefully developing power.
My only surprise at Wilson's placement among the top 10 AL catchers is that he didn't perform better considering his exceptional minor league track record, in which he posted a .900+ OPS in a few different seasons. If Ken Huckaby hadn't magically bewitched Carlos Tosca into playing him in most of Toronto's games, Wilson probably could have challenged for an .800 OPS. With a respectable .11 walk rate, .96 G-F, and an outstanding 4.25 #P/PA, he still owns skills that suggest a $10 season is rather reasonable within the next few years if he finds the opportunity. Unfortunately his .70 contact rate limited his offensive upside this year and now we don't expect Wilson to exceed $5 unless a sabermetrically-inclined GM gives him a starting job in the very near future.
Hinch finally began displaying the power expected of someone with a career 1.07 G-F, and his .94 G-F in 2002 provided him with the necessary quantitative stats to post a career-best .722 OPS, a welcome improvement after two years below .585. Neither his .09 walk rate nor .51 BB:K are particularly poor compared to other backups, and his homer upside makes Hinch a fairly good $1 investment. Assuming he finds a similar job next season, he again shouldn't hurt you when you're looking to add catchers in Dollar Days.
One of the best $1 investments of the year, Greene provided welcome double-digit homers even as he didn't help much in any other category. He's always possessed exceptional power potential as evidenced by his .85 career G-F, and though he still owns almost no plate discipline, he posted a .580 SLG in only 42 games. Colorado should make every effort to secure his rights next year as Greene's a solid right-handed pinch-hitter who can handle catcher, first base, and even an emergency stint in the outfield. He'll make a solid roto selection regardless of his team, and if he doesn't open the season in the majors, look for him as a mid-season FAAB target if you need a power boost at catcher.
Gil looked like a potential Rookie of the Year candidate after compiling 5 homers, 15 RBI, 8 R, and a .286/.324/.557 line in April. Unfortunately his 3:14 BB:K quickly caught up to him, and Gil failed to post even a .600 OPS in June, August, and September. Perhaps a better conditioning program would allow him to maintain his skill throughout the rigors of a 162-game schedule, but Gil's minor league numbers don't suggest he's capable of posting numbers far above his current level. Without much plate discipline or better power potential than indicated by a 1.50 G-F, you should list him with your $1 catcher targets next year, but only spend a couple bucks of you don't mind the likely BA hit.
Like A.J. Pierzynski, unless you already own Molina at a couple of bucks or less, he's likely not worth considering for your team next year. Anaheim's World Series win significantly raised his public profile, and while he may not have merited a Gold Glove, Molina deserves a reputation as a defense-oriented catcher. His walk rate slipped to the lowest level of his career as his OPS continued a precipitous fall from .739 in 2000 to .660 last year and now a .596 in 2002. With a G-F rising from .94 to 1.13 and now 1.22, and a terrible 3.06 #P/PA, I'm not sure I'd want him on my team at almost any price. Explore a trade if you own him at a good salary, and otherwise ignore him in 2003 barring a dramatic improvement in his skills.
Mayne posted a BA below .250 for the first time in a decade, yet between a career-best 4 steals and moderately respectable power numbers, he somehow managed Positive Draft Value. Though he might bounce back close to a .700 OPS at some point, he's no longer a reliable roto option due to his declining skills. Any bids above $3 for Mayne appear almost guaranteed to insure you won't see a profit here, so instead target younger backups with better chances for improvement like Hinch, Tom Wilson, or even Ben Davis.
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