Today's Fantasy Rx

I analyzed the Tout Wars' drafts back in April, discussing the AL draft on April 4th and April 5th. Now I'd like to return to my evaluations for a couple days to see how my expectations matched the "experts".

Final Standings

95.0	MLB Radio (Irwin Zwilling & Lenny Melnick)
92.0	USA Stats (Matt Carter & Mike Vogel)
87.0	The Sporting News (Mark Bonavita)
77.0	Fantasy Baseball Central (Greg Scalf)
75.5	Rototouts.com (Peter Kreutzer & Alex Patton)
75.5	Rototimes (Scott Wilderman & John Muckler)
68.5	CDM Sports (Charlie Wiegert)
65.0	Sandlot Shrink (John Coleman)
64.0	Rotisserie Hall of Fame (Mike Bikales & Dan Gottfried)
57.0	Rotoheaven (Rob Liebowitz)
56.0	Rotowire (Steve Moyer)
51.5	Rotoradio (Ben Brown & Mike Elliott)
46.0	Wise Guy Baseball (Gene McCaffrey & John Menna)

Prior to the season, I predicted Rotoradio to finish first, MLB Radio to finish second, and likely first division finishes from Rotisserie Hall of Fame, Rototimes, Wise Guys, and USA Stats. MLB Radio placed slightly above my expectations, with USA Stats and Rototimes also finishing solidly, but Rotoradio and the Wise Guys bombed.

Each standings tier sharply diverged from the rest, as 1st through 3rd finished 10 points above 4th through 6th, which wound up 7 points ahead of 7th through 9th, which also finished another 7 points above the four stragglers at the bottom. Once again, we saw a wide disparity in strategies key the successful teams, although unlike Jason Grey's win in the NL, I don't see an overwhelming emphasis on either offense or pitching as they key to winning here. Apparently the key was to not make any trades, as All-Star Stats only listed seven trades all season, and either USA Stats, Rototouts, Rotoheaven, or the Wise Guys were involved in all of them.

Note: Due to the limits of All-Star Stats and the Tout Wars' site, I was unable to determine if any trades involved FAAB. There's also no obvious way to look at the stats for all your teams' players on one page; you need to look at separate pages for the players who finished the season on your team and those who you only owned for part of the year.

95.0(1st) MLB Radio (Irwin Zwilling & Lenny Melnick)

Pre-season summary: They should be able to pick up a cheap closer from a strikeout-desperate team for someone like Bere, giving them the saves' boost they need to finish in the money.

MLB Radio spent all their money, allocating 71% to offense. Not only did Zwilling and Melnick not bother trading for a closer, but they didn't make any trades at all this season, yet they still finished in the top three in every offensive category while managing a 3rd place tie in wins and another 17 points between ERA and Strikeouts. They also only picked up three free agents, yet Tim Worrell, Lenny Harris, and a $95 Bartolo Colon all played important roles.

After drafting a quality offense that included Shawn Green($33), Bobby Abreu($33), Pat Burrell($21), Edgardo Alfonzo($20), Adrian Beltre($19), Reggie Sanders($18), and monster sleepers Benito Santiago($1) and Marquis Grissom($1), they grabbed Alex Sanchez in the reserve rounds. Adding Colon certainly helped their pitching, however they'd also drafted Roy Oswalt($24), Javier Vazquez($24), Tom Glavine($14), and Mike DeJean($3), who grabbed three saves points and insured a first place finish. The combination of four and five-category hitters with cheap veterans and a nice assortment of starters provided plenty of firepower for an impressive first place finish. They pulled off a modified "Stars & Scrubs" by targeting established players at minimum cost instead of gambling on upside.

92.0(2nd) USA Stats (Matt Carter & Mike Vogel)

Pre-season summary: While they weren't able to draft much depth, I still expect them to remain competitive for the entire season.

USA Stats left $3 on the table while spending 75% on offense. Carter finished second in HR, Runs, ERA, and WHIP, fourth in RBI and Runs, fifth in Saves, and sixth in BA. He only struggled in steals and wins, so he easily could have finished first by grabbing one of the sleeper basestealers in the early going. Carter completed two significant trades, first swapping Eric Gagne($9) for Mike Lowell in mid-June before an August deal of Luis Castillo($27), Billy Wagner($25), and Bubba Trammell($14) to Wise Guys for Todd Helton, Orlando Merced, and Chris Hammond. Of course he dumped Hammond towards the end of the year for Adam Eaton($7), likely costing himself a WHIP point. Overall he received relatively little free agent help despite a flurry of acquisitions highlighted by Endy Chavez($11), Mike Koplove($4), Joey Eischen($0), Brian Moehler($24), Britt Reames($12), and Ty Wigginton($10).

Carter succeeded largely by acquiring top players in the draft at reasonable prices. He secured Sosa($38), Ryan Klesko($31), and Mike Piazza($26) fairly reasonably, also adding good values like Mark Kotsay($17), Jose Hernandez($7), and Mike Barrett($3). Octavio Dotel($6) and Matt Clement($5) were huge bargains, although he probably should have kept Eric Gagne instead of moving to Lowell. A slightly stronger offensive bench would have provided the necessary extra point, but Carter again demonstrated that you can win by targeting bargain stars below the $40 level at which they normally go in the draft.

87.0(3rd) The Sporting News (Mark Bonavita)

Pre-season summary: He has a relatively strong offense but will need career years from Sean Casey($23), Scott Rolen($25), and Brian Giles($29) to finish in the money.

The Sporting News left $8 on the table and spent 71% on offense. Bonavita found success largely due to three wonderful free agent pickups: Dave Roberts($0), Luis Vizcaino($18), and Quinton McCracken($3). They enabled him to finish first in Runs, third in RBI and ERA, fourth in BA and ERA, and in the middle of the pack in the other categories. His lack of outright dominance on either offense or pitching cost him a higher slot in the standings, but considering that he only made one transaction after June 8th, activating Benny Agbayani for Kerry Robinson, we must again attribute another team's success to good drafting.

I find it quite intriguing that both the 1st and 3rd place teams failed to complete one trade all season. Bonavita combined a fantastic reserve pick of Junior Spivey with smart selections on both sides of the ball like Brian Giles($29), Scott Rolen($25), Brian Lawrence($9), and Odalis Perez($5) to post solid stats across-the-board. However, if he hadn't neglected his team after the All-Star Break, he likely would have challenged for first place.

77.0(4th) Fantasy Baseball Central (Greg Scalf)

Pre-season summary: If Hampton goes soon, then he could finish in the first division.

Fantasy Baseball Central left $3 on the table while spending 67% on offense. After spending a buck on Mike Hampton, he wisely left him on the roster for all of 3.2 innings, and the resulting 6 ER and 12 baserunners didn't cost him anything as he finished either first or second in every pitching category. Scalf assembled an incredible staff of Randy Johnson($38), Jose Mesa($18), Byung-Hyun Kim($17), Hideo Nomo($16), reserve pick Kirk Rueter, and free agents Alan Embree($0) and Paul Shuey($8). He also added Eric Gagne for Mike Lowell($16) in mid-June before spending both Moises Alou($23) and Paul Lo Duca($20) in early August to acquire the Greg Maddux.

The result of these moves is that Scalf essentially punted HR, RBI, and Runs due to compiling a very small overall number of at-bats. Spending significant money on Roberto Alomar($31), Jason Kendall($22), and Delino DeShields($18) also didn't help his offense much, although an early $0 Reggie Taylor provided nice production. The problem here, like so many other owners in Tout and LABR, is that Scalf missed three weeks of moves in July and then didn't complete one transaction after August 10th, leaving DeShields and Ruben Quevedo($6) on his team all season. While the latter move didn't hurt him since he was merely avoiding potential ERA/WHIP damage, we still don't generally approve of wasting roster space for several weeks at any point of the season. Scalf was lucky to finish fourth given his obvious neglect.

75.5(5th) Rototouts.com (Peter Kreutzer & Alex Patton)

Pre-season summary: If their young players develop beyond most people's expectation, they could finish in the first division.

Rototouts.com left no money on the table and spent 71% on offense. Their status as one of three most active traders in this league keyed this finish as they dealt Austin Kearns and Placido Polanco($10) for Roger Cedeno and Cesar Izturis in mid-July before moving Albert Pujols($28) for Russ Ortiz at the beginning of August. By dealing power for speed and pitching, they still finished first in homers by one home run, barely missed finishing third in runs, grabbed two extra points in steals, and secured a couple extra pitching points. Adding Kearns and Josh Fogg as reserve picks and grabbing Damon Minor($0), Mark Bellhorn($0), Andy Fox($0), Steve Reed($0), Tim Worrell($0), Brent Butler($1), and Scott Sauerbeck($0) as free agents also gave them consistent infusion of helpful new talent.

However Kreutzer and Patton still only finished tied for fifth due to some severe draft problems. Investments in Kevin Brown($26), Richard Hidalgo($23), Marcus Giles($18), and Ryan Dempster($14) returned very little, and even nice performances from Aaron Boone($16), Kevin Millwood($11), Juan Encarnacion($10), and A.J. Burnett($7) couldn't compensate for the overall lack of bargains on this roster. Only excellent in-season management saved Kreutzer and Patton from a second division finish.

75.5(6th) Rototimes (Scott Wilderman & John Muckler)

Pre-season summary: As their only problem category is saves, I expect they'll be able to finish in the first division.

Rototimes spent all their money while allocating 66% to offense. Despite spending 34% of their budget on pitching, they failed to find even one save all season. They used several relievers, including Mike Remlinger($2), Gabe White($1) and free agents Darren Holmes($0) Jay Witasick($0), Kevin Gryboski($0), Mike Crudale($0), and Kerry Ligtenberg($2) to fill out his roster, but he primarily depended on starters. Curt Schilling($28), Pedro Astacio($15), Jason Schmidt($1), reserve pick Ryan Jensen, and free agent Michael Tejera($1) allowed him to grab 39 pitching points in four categories even though Chad Fox($14) and Brian Tollberg($10) failed to help.

Their major FAAB investment was a $74 Kenny Lofton, which compensated for their $7 Peter Bergeron. Only Larry Walker($30), Orlando Cabrera($19), Todd Walker($15), and Eric Owens($5) provided much help from the draft as guys like Geoff Jenkins($23) and Sean Burroughs($13) bombed rather spectacularly. Although they were in competition for fourth place as the season ended, Wilderman and Muckler should be somewhat pleased that they managed a first division finish despite a sever paucity of power.

68.5(7th) CDM Sports (Charlie Wiegert)

Pre-season summary: A deep bullpen leaves him short on salary for both starters and offense; only a couple great trades will allow him to finish in the money.

CDM Sports left $0 on the table and spent 64% on offense. Wiegert basically employed the LIMA plan, and as frequently happens in a 5x5 league, only managed 4.5 points in wins while finishing dead last in Strikeouts. Matt Morris($22) and Woody Williams($12) pitched decently but failed to accumulate innings, and the unfortunate passing of Darryl Kile($17) left another hole in his rotation. Unfortunately he neglected to make moves for a month around the trading deadline, which left him blowing FAAB on moves like a $12 Steve Smyth. None of his FAAB grabs made a notable contribution, so his finish is almost entirely based on a solid draft.

What makes even a middle-of-the-pack placement surprising is that reserve gambles on Jeff Shaw and Darren Dreifort completely failed, leaving him with effectively six wasted picks. Fortunately he scored by selecting three dynamic outfielders to key his offense in Vlad($37), Cliff Floyd($27), and Jim Edmonds($26), as well as finding excellent relief bargains in Robb Nen($22), Tim Spooneybarger($1), and Ray King($1). Wiegert might have challenged for fourth place if Scott Strickland($14) hadn't lost his closer's job due to the trade, but this team suffered as much from bad luck than any problems in management.

65.0(8th) Sandlot Shrink (John Coleman)

Pre-season summary: His reserve list needs several changes, but this is a balanced 23-man roster, only perhaps lacking a little speed. Moving someone like Wolf for a speedy MIF might pay great dividends, and could easily propel him into the money.

Sandlot Shrink spent all his money while allocating 65% to offense. Although none of his reserve picks provided much help, he found three relatively early FAAB bargains in Damian Moss($8), Jimmy Haynes($1), and NL Rookie of the Year Jason Jennings. Later pick-ups of Bobby Estalella($18), Russ Branyan($26), and Raul Gonzalez($15) didn't work nearly as well. Largely thanks to his $10 FAAB commitment to three WHIP killers, Coleman finished first in Wins and Strikeouts while only grabbing 19 total points in the other pitching categories. His overall investment in pitching brought mixed returns, as while Randy Wolf($14), Danny Graves($12), Tony Armas($10), Braden Looper($7), and Mark Prior($4) worked out nicely, Josh Beckett($16) and Kyle Farnsworth($12) were more problematic. At least he managed to convert Russ Ortiz($16) into an early August acquisition of Albert Pujols.

Offensively, Coleman managed 15 points in the power categories largely thanks to the Pujols pick-up, but he only pulled five points between BA, Runs, and Stolen Bases. He found nice bargains in Corey Patterson($6), Brad Wilkerson($4), and Alex Cora($2) although Luis Gonzalez($31), Aramis Ramirez($25), Jose Ortiz($20), and Daryle Ward($17) struggled. While Coleman only secured eighth by a couple of wins, he was also very close to picking up a few more points in the qualitative categories to challenge for 7thor better.

64.0(9th) Rotisserie Hall of Fame (Mike Bikales & Dan Gottfried)

Pre-season summary: I'll be surprised if they don't finish in the first division, and they could easily stay in the race until the end.

Rotisserie Hall of Fame left $0 on the table and spent 67% on offense. They primarily didn't finish in the first division because of only making six roster additions over the course of the year, and while Joe Borowski($1) definitely helped, Sandy Alomar($52) and Kirk Saarloos($15) didn't. Aside from grabbing 11 points in saves, they finished with between 3 and 8 points in every other category. Reserve picks Livan Hernandez and Carlos Zambrano both played vital roles in keeping them within spitting distance of the first division.

However Bikales and Gottfried only found good bargains in Armando Benitez($22), Wade Miller($19), Mike Williams($13), Jay Payton($9), Eli Marrero($6), and Kip Wells($1). Their expensive offense, fueled by Ken Griffey($31), Chipper Jones($31), and several double-digit failures like Todd Zeile, Marlon Anderson, Barry Larkin, Fernando Tatis, and D'Angelo Jimenez, provided little return on a substantial investment. Without any exceptional position players and lacking a good group of starters, my pre-season prediction appeared too generous based on the injury histories of much of their offensive core.

57.0(10th) Rotoheaven (Rob Liebowitz)

Pre-season summary: He has enough pitching talent to deal a couple guys while remaining competitive, though he'll have to make a move to add some power to finish in the first division.

Rotoheaven left $2 on the table and spent 67% on offense. Due to his position in awarding FAAB claims each week, Liebowitz stayed more involved than perhaps any other owner. He completed three trades, first sending Roger Cedeno($29) and Cesar Izturis($5) to Rototouts in mid-July for Austin Kearns and Placido Polanco, and then he dealt Jeremy Giambi($43 FAAB) and Oliver Perez($1 FAAB) to Rotoradio a week later for Phil Nevin and Denny Stark. In early August he moved Greg Maddux($26) to Fantasy Baseball Central for Moises Alou and Paul Lo Duca. In addition to Giambi and Perez, he rotated well over two-dozen more FAAB claims into his roster, although he only found good bargains in T.J. Tucker($13), Brian Meadows($3), and Jayson Durocher($0).

Liebowitz pulled 72% of his totals from between half the categories: BA, HR, RBI, Runs, and Wins. Only Barry Bonds($34), Jose Vidro($21), and Damian Miller($7) provided much value for him on offense while Cedeno, Adrian Brown($17), Alex Ochoa($16), and Morgan Ensberg($14) contributed very little. Jason Isringhausen($22) was his only consistent pitcher, although Maddux and Jon Lieber($16) at least helped while they were active. With no exceptional speed source following the Cedeno trade and fairly severe qualitative pitching problems, he was somewhat lucky not to finish lower in the standings.

56.0(11th) Rotowire Baseball Outsider (Steve Moyer)

Pre-season summary: His offense should keep him competitive, but he needs new pitchers quickly to insure a first division finish.

Baseball Outsider spent all his money, allocating 75% to offense. Moyer found 10 points in homers, 9 in WHIP, 7 in RBI, 6 in ERA, and only an average of 4 points in each of the six other categories. Moyer found two excellent reserve pick in George Lombard and Scott Stewart, but expensive FAAB gambles on Graeme Lloyd($26), Jose Macias($37), and Joey Eischen($28) provided little value in return. Once again, Steve assembled a poor batch of Scrubs.

Like in LABR, he received mixed returns on his Stars, as while Gary Sheffield($30), Adam Dunn($25), Jeff Kent($24), Kerry Wood($21), and Al Leiter($18) posted decent seasons, Jeff Bagwell($31), Jimmy Rollins($26), and Mo Vaughn($21) struggled for large portions of the year. Only Lombard, Stewart, Steve Trachsel($5), Matt Williams($2), and Scott Williamson($1) turned nice profits, again suggesting the necessity for better selection of Scrubs as Zwilling & Melnick demonstrated while winning the league.

51.5(12th) Rotoradio (Ben Brown & Mike Elliott)

Pre-season summary: They have both the talent and depth necessary to challenge for first of they can avoid injury.

Rotoradio left $4 on the table and spent 70% on offense. While the $51 FAAB investment in Chuck Finley paid off handsomely, only Jose Vizcaino($0) and Mike Kinkade($1) provided much help from the rest of their free agents. Moving Phil Nevin($27) and Denny Stark($1) to Rotoheaven in mid-August for Jeremy Giambi and Oliver Perez didn't add much, although Perez posted decent numbers when healthy.

Brown and Elliott somehow managed to finish first in saves thanks to John Smoltz($22) and Jose Jimenez($14) while finishing last in ERA and WHIP due to Brandon Duckworth($9), Shawn Chacon($4), Jamey Wright($3), Nick Neugebauer($3) and a fairly poor cast of middle relievers. They wound up with between 4 and 7 points in each offensive category thanks to only Lance Berkman($28) and David Bell($4) turning much profit. Even an assortment of decent selections like Richie Sexson($25), Eric Young($21), Tony Womack($17), and Ben Sheets($10) can't help if you don't also own lower-priced bargains. Wasting a reserve list on Salomon Torres, Ron Villone, Seth Etherton, Joe Nathan, Nelson Cruz, and Pete Harnisch also wasn't a good idea.

46.0(13th) Wise Guy Baseball (Gene McCaffrey & John Menna)

Pre-season summary: With a couple of good trades, they should finish comfortably in the money.

The Wise Guys left $2 on the table while spending 73% on offense. They sent Jose Mesa($18) to FBC at the end of July for what appears to be no compensation according to both Tout websites. Although a mid-August trade of Todd Helton($39), Chris Hammond($2 FAAB), and Orlando Merced($1 FAAB) to USA Stats for Luis Castillo, Billy Wagner, and Bubba Trammell provided a needed boost in a couple categories, it couldn't compensate for disasters elsewhere on the roster. Spending a buck on Mike Hampton and $79 on Gabe Kapler both worked out poorly, although even success in both moves wouldn't have allowed a move out of last place.

The Wise Guys essentially failed to find a single draft bargain aside from Andy Ashby($4) and reserve picks Vlad Nunez and Cliff Politte, and Politte was released without spending any time on the active roster. Helton, Juan Pierre($31), J.D. Drew($29), Preston Wilson($28), Craig Biggio($17), Brad Penny($16), Antonio Alfonseca($15), and Mark Grace($12) all failed to earn their high salaries. Apparently receiving no compensation for Mesa also didn't help. While this roster should have enabled at least a middle-of-the-pack finish, the combination of youngsters failing to develop and older players crashing understandably drove the Wise Guys into the basement. While they managed 10 points in Saves and Steals and 9 point in Batting Average, they were stuck with 4 points or less in the other seven categories.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If your league is considering a stat service switch, we definitely recommend TQ Stats for any standard league. They offer more useful features than we've seen anywhere else, and their partnership with Rototimes gives you useful player links. We're not totally opposed to CBS Sportsline as we always seem to wind up with one or two leagues over there, but I'm not aware of any obvious advantages that Sportsline holds over TQ.

Lastly, to expand on a subject I briefly mentioned yesterday, the fundamental problem for experts' leagues using USA Stats, All-Star Stats, and Sportsline is the difficulty in navigating the site for visitors. We've spent time on all four stat services, and as an owner we find TQ the easiest to use. As an outside observer, I'm quite annoyed at the troubles we've encountered in trying to access a thorough transaction list for each team at USA and All-Star. We dislike Sportsline in our leagues because they don't allow you to look at all free agent hitters at once, instead forcing you to check by each position, a ridiculous waste of time when you're seeking a UT. Since the goal of an experts' league should be to increase the number of people who regularly follow it, it makes no sense for Tout Wars to remain with stat services with such obstacles to analyzing each expert's team.