Today's Fantasy Rx

I analyzed the Tout Wars' drafts back in April, discussing the AL draft on April 11th and April 12th. Now I'd like to return to my evaluations for a couple days to see how my expectations matched the "experts".

Final Standings

87.0	Mastersball (Jason Grey)
84.0	Future Stars (Tony Blengino)
76.5	All-Star Stats/Rotoworld (Rich Pike)
75.5	Baseball America (Jim Callis)
67.5	STATS, Inc. (Dean Peterson)
64.0	Baseball Weekly Hotsheet (Rick Wilton)
59.5	RotoJunkie (Byron Cox & Bob Kohm)
57.0	Baseball Weekly (Mat Olkin)
55.5	Long Gandhi (Trace Wood)
54.0	CREATiVESPORTS (Lawr Michaels)
52.5	BaseballHQ (Ron Shandler)
47.0	Rotowire (Scott Pianowski)

Prior to the season, I identified Mastersball and BaseballHQ to compete for first place all season, with CREATiVESPORTS, All-Star Stats, and depending on his trading success, Long Gandhi to also finish in the first division. Obviously my pick of Mastersball worked out well, and All-Star Stats finished a solid 3rd, however I'm somewhat surprised by both Future Stars and Baseball America. Hopefully the following will explain where my predictions erred.

Also Trace Wood drafted Mariano Rivera, Kelvim Escobar, Jeff Zimmerman, and eventual Texas closer Hideki Irabu. We suggested that the other Tout owners should "defeat" this strategy of stocking closers for trade by letting Wood run away in the saves lead, but due to the injuries or ineffectiveness of all four closers, Wood only finished third in saves. His only major trade involved sending Zimmermand, Irabu, and Olmedo Saenz to Mastersball for Robin Ventura and Lou Pote, so while Wood only added a little power, there really were no other trade alternatives for him given his closer troubles.

87.0(1st) Mastersball (Jason Grey)

Pre-season summary: As long as he can find some saves, he should remain in the money for the entire season.

Mastersball left $0 on the table while spending 85% of his budget on offense. As expected, Grey finished first in RBI, R, SB, and BA, only finishing second in HR. Focusing on starters to the detriment of Saves, ERA, and WHIP also allowed him to finish second in Wins and third in Strikeouts, giving him a somewhat comfortable 3-point margin of victory. His reserve picks of Kenny Rogers and Tim Wakefield also both helped a lot.

Grey completed three trades, and while his gamble for Texas saves didn't overly help, he made a great move in mid-July by sending Irabu, McLemore, Mench, and Willis Roberts to CREATiVESPORTS for Freddy Garcia, Raul Ibanez, and Joe Crede. An early $12 FAAB claim of Mench allowed that deal, while an $11 Matt LeCroy netted him Sidney Ponson in early July. Grabbing John Lackey at $7 ranks with the best FAAB claims of the year, so I see little wrong with his overall strategy, although grabbing Calvin Murphy($23) and Chris Truby($22) didn't help. Even though some of his offensive moves didn't work out, the combination of Jason Giambi($34), Carlos Beltran($29), Bernie Wiliams($24), John Olerud($18), Rob Fick($12), and David Eckstein($11) gave him an incredible base that allowed his somewhat unorthodox strategy to work. Few owners remain successful by essentially punting ERA, WHIP, and saves, so I'm somewhat surprised that a more balanced team wasn't able to reach 90 points to beat him.

84.0(2nd) Future Stars (Tony Blengino)

Pre-season summary: I'll be surprised if he finishes in the money unless Pedro begins to rebound very strongly.

Future Stars left no money on the table and spend 62% on hitting. As Blengino released Rafael Soriano in early April, none of his reserve picks helped him to this second place finish. Basically his entire strategy was diametrically opposed to Jason Grey's. Blengino invested in some great pitching bargains like Pedro Martinez($35), Jamie Moyer($12), and Jorge Julio($4), allowing him to wind up first in Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, along with a 4th place finish in Wins. His offense struggled to some extent but still managed 28 points divided fairly equally between each category. However, by making no trades, Blengino was unable to move his excess pitching for the necessary offensive boost.

He splurged FAAB on several players, but only Antonio Osuna($31) and Chris Woodward($3) helped; Damian Jackson($16), John Stephens($16), Andy Van Hekken($15), and Covelli Crisp($15) weren't exactly solid free agent additions. By spending $12 on Hank Blalock and another $9 on Mike Lamb at the draft, Blengino wound up with almost no production for that $21. A couple picks like Jacque Jones($15), Ray Durham($24), Tony Batista($14), and Josh Phelps($2) boosted his offense, but I'm almost surprised he managed 28 points considering Carl Everett($16), David Segui($15), and Frank Thomas($19). If all his position players just matched expectations he might have edged out Mastersball for first, however Blengino also held a nice 7.5 point lead over third place.

76.5(3rd) All-Star Stats/Rotoworld (Rich Pike)

Pre-season summary: I think he can make the first division with a bit of luck, but he could have finished much higher if he'd spent all his money.

All-Star Stats left $12 on the table while spending 75% on offense. There's no point in discussing Pike's moves because he basically didn't make any. Aside from activating Jason Grimsley for Todd Van Poppel on April 13th, he only made transactions on August 31st. Even then he basically just added Mickey Callaway at $10, yet Pike still finished with one of the two most balanced teams among the first division clubs, securing 42.2 points on offense and 34 on defense.

If he hadn't abandoned his team for almost the entire season, Pike probably would have challenged for first. Manny Ramirez($33), Alfonso Soriano($26), Rafael Palmeiro($23), Omar Vizquel($12), and Michael Tucker($9) gave him significant offensive support even though he lost Juan Gonzalez($30) for much of the season. Almost all his pitchers posted fairly solid stats, including a nice rotation triumvirate of Mark Mulder($19), Roger Clemens($18), and Andy Pettitte($15) and bullpen trio of Ramiro Mendoza($3), Chad Bradford($1), and Mike Stanton($1). Between leaving $12 on the table and only making transactions twice, this squad probably ranks as both the most surprising and disappointing team in this league.

75.5(4th) Baseball America (Jim Callis)

Pre-season summary: If he can start dealing starters ASAP for offense and maybe a closer, he has a chance of finishing in the money.

Baseball America didn't spent $3 and allocated 62% to offense. Owning the most balanced roster in the first division, Callis finished the year 2 steals and 1 save away from third place. He completed two of the most unbalanced trades of the year, first moving Aubrey Huff and Rick Reed in mid-April for Jose Valentin and Steve Woodard, and then receiving Alex Rodriguez and John Rocker for Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Guillen in mid-May. Callis simply stole two of the best FAAB pickups of the year in April by rostering Bobby Kielty($4) and Rodrigo Lopez($1), although he should have kept Antonio Osuna instead of cutting him loose in mid-June. Fortunately a $0 Ben Weber allowed him to grab seven saves and an extra half point, and a $10 late-season D'Angelo Jimenez also helped.

Callis' best position players from the draft were Jim Thome($25), Mike Cameron($25), Ellis Burks($15), and Adam Kennedy($10), so he had a nice base of talent when he added ARod. After adding Rod Lopez, trading Reed and Washburn wasn't a problem since he still had Barry Zito($21) and Bartolo Colon($17). He probably could have owned every pitching category but saves if he'd kept all of his starters, however upgrading to ARod compensated for losing Huff in the first place. Following my recommended course of action by dealing the starters, he finished one point back of third place and eight ahead of fifth.

67.5(5th) STATS, Inc. (Dean Peterson)

Pre-season summary: Only a couple of great trades will keep him out of the second division.

STATS left $0 on the table while spending 73% on offense. His lone trade was a swap of Jose Offerman for Jon Rauch, so how did Peterson exceed my expectation by still finishing in the first division. First, he made three great reserve picks in Paul Byrd, Orlando Hudson, and Luis Vizcaino, although he bizarrely released Vizcaino to roster Rocky Biddle in early May, a move that makes no sense considering no one could then reacquire Vizcaino due to his trade to the NL. Pickups like Todd Hollandsworth($24), Jayson Werth($20), Willie Harris($18), and Ruben Rivera($11) added little though Francisco Cordero($3) and Dan Wright($0) at least helped net him some pitching points.

Even though Peterson finished dead last in pitching due mostly to the dual Chicago disaster of Keith Foulke($31) and Todd Ritchie($11) and releasing Vizcaino and LaTroy Hawkins($1) early in the year, he also finished second in offense to secure fifth place by 3.5 points. Mark Sweeney($29), Troy Glaus($27), Miguel Tejada($24), David Ortiz($13), Hudson, and Mark Ellis($2 FAAB) combined to give him the strongest infield in the league. An outfield with Torii Hunter($18), Vernon Wells($18), and Kenny Lofton($17) also contributed solid stats despite a lack of depth, so Peterson managed his impressive finish due to simply outslugging much of the opposition while also adding a few saves and strikeouts.

64.0(6th) Baseball Weekly Hotsheet (Rick Wilton)

Pre-season summary: Picking up a closer will allow him to remain the first division, but I just don't see enough upside in these players for him to finish in the money.

Baseball Weekly Hot Sheet left $0 on the table and spent 68% on offense. Wilton never found a closer despite spending $13 on Cory Bailey at the beginning of the year, although the combination of Mike Mussina($27), Arthur Rhodes($7), and Buddy Groom($5) at least allowed him to finish strongly in WHIP. His only other two significant FAAB claims were Ben Broussard($25) and Lee Steven($11), and neither added much to his roster. A lone, late-July trade of Brad Radke and Randy Winn in a package for Carlos Lee, Ted Lilly, and Mark Redman probably neither helped nor hurt as the small loss in steals compensated for the minor gain in power.

The main reason Wilton didn't finish higher is that he didn't pay consistent attention to his team. While he was very active in May and July, he skipped three weeks in June and didn't make any moves after August 10th. A couple solid position players like Johnny Damon($36), Garret Anderson($20), and A.J. Pierzynski($6) provided some offense. However there was no reason for him to finish above the middle of the pack considering his unimpressive draft and roster neglect over most of the last two months of the season.

59.5(7th) RotoJunkie (Byron Cox & Bob Kohm)

Pre-season summary: The top 3 offensive stars can carry any team if they all have career years, but they need to redo their bench very quickly if they want to stay with the pack.

Rotojunkie left $7 on the table while spending 70% on offense. While their June 1st trade of Chuck Knoblauch for C.C. Sabathia didn't hurt, they also found very little on the free agent market, spending on Travis Hafner($33), John Rocker($30), Alex Ochoa($12), and Todd Greene($10). Only George Lombard($10) and Scot Shields($0) contributed to their finish, and after rostering Shields on August 24th, they neglected to make any other moves the rest of the year.

While their core of Magglio Ordonez($37), Eric Chavez($30), and Nomar Garciaparra($28) remained healthy and productive all year, and Brian Daubach($7) and Shea Hillenbrand($2) also surprised, the top-heavy offense still finished in the middle of the pack. Their pitching also remained fairly good despite only David Wells($10) producing much better numbers than expected. Rotojunkie probably could have challenged for the first division with more proactive moves, although this finish seems appropriate given their average draft.

57.0(8th) Baseball Weekly (Mat Olkin)

Pre-season summary: One more injury, in addition to Percival, might leave him in the second division.

Baseball Weekly left $4 on the table and spent 63% on offense. Unfortunately, like in LABR, Mat ignored his team almost all year.

He made pre-season moves, and then only activated Ryan Franklin for Joe Mays in late May, dealt Joel Pineiro($10) for Billy Koch in July, and then FAABed Cliff Floyd for $100 at the trading deadline, along with the necessary corresponding move. Olkin wasn't able to use a relatively deep bench due to his lack of moves, however his roster remained relatively healthy all year. His pitching staff was fairly deep with Troy Percival($25), Tim Hudson($24), Derek Lowe($13), Pineiro/Koch, and Steve Karsay($5), allowing him to finish second in pitching with 42 points. However he finished 10th in hitting at 15 points due to the injuries of Matt Lawton($22) and Ricky Gutierrez($9) and the unwarranted demotions of Toby Hall($16) and Carlos Pena($11). AL Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske($11) could only provide so much quantitative help, so Olkin might want to consider targeting slightly older players in future seasons to avoid some of these problems.

55.5(9th) Long Gandhi (Trace Wood)

Pre-season summary: Wood could finish anywhere in the standings based upon the effectiveness of his trading.

Long Gandhi left $3 on the table while spending 56% on offense. Despite only completing one major trade and a minor swap of Brian Buchanan-for-$30 FAAB, Wood easily led the league in number of transactions, constantly cycling players and making thorough use of his bench. FAAB pickups like Gary Matthews, Jr.($8) and Brendan Donnelly($7) certainly helped, although he probably shouldn't have released Karim Garcia($6); Wood also added Johan Santana, but I couldn't find his FAAB price.

Thanks largely to the injuries to his closers, Wood's team finished with between 5 and 8 points in every category except Strikeouts, an interesting accomplishment given the diverse and unbalanced strategies employed by the league leaders. We expected him to finish higher largely due to several likely bargains on offense, and I don't believe any of his position players turned a profit. Wood only escaped the basement thanks to nice picks of Roy Halladay($20), Ramon Ortiz($6), and Orlando Hernandez($5). Therefore, in consideration of his complete offensive disappointment and mass of closer injuries, ninth place is a reasonably decent accomplishment.

54.0(10th) CREATiVESPORTS (Lawr Michaels)

Pre-season summary: His offense could lead the league in every category, but an injury to one of his four pitching studs could keep him out of the money.

CREATiVESPORTS left no money on the table while allocating 63% to offense. Michaels missed out on two of the best second-half pitchers by releasing reserve picks Francisco Cordero and John Lackey before the end of April. He also caught-and-released Mark Ellis and Damaso Marte, although he then reclaimed Marte, also claiming Juan Acevedo($3) and LaTroy Hawkins in his search for reliable pitching. On July 20th Michaels completed two significant trades, first moving Koch($24) for Joel Pineiro, and then sending Freddy Garcia, Raul Ibanez, and Joe Crede for a package that included Kevin Mench, Mark McLemore, and an injured Hideki Irabu. Both these moves depleted important sections of his team, leaving Michaels in the bottom half of both offense and pitching. Fortunately a mid-April swap of Jose Valentin and Steve Woodard for Aubrey Huff and Rick Reed gave him a little flexibility.

Michaels drafted a fairly decent pitching staff of Koch, Garcia, Matt Anderson($23), and Chan Ho Park($18) but also rostered disasters like Scott Erickson($3). Offensively, although he possessed a very good infield of Jorge Posada($19), Paul Konerko($24), Brent Abernathy($13), Derek Jeter($29), and Herb Perry($7), he lacked depth and any outfield production beyond Darin Erstad($24). Although he found value in most of his draft picks, the pitching injuries combined with the weak quantitative production on offense combined to leave Michaels barely holding onto 10th place.

52.5(11th) BaseballHQ (Ron Shandler)

Pre-season summary: I see little reason why he shouldn't remain in the money throughout the season.

BaseballHQ left $0 on the table while spending 74% on offense. Reserve pick Ted Lilly certainly helped, although the Jeff Shaw gambit failed to work. Shandler made several excellent FAAB additions, including Randall Simon($1) on March 23rd, along with Rafael Soriano($5), Alan Embree($7), Runelvys Hernandez($1), and then Karim Garcia($43) on August 10th. His one trade, a 4x4 that included Carlos Lee, Ted Lilly, and Mark Redman for Randy Winn and Brad Radke, wound up adding very little since he didn't need the SB boost but could have used more power.

Some of his pitching picks like Eddie Guardado($16), Cory Lidle($16), and Casey Fossum($2) worked out quite well, but Esteban Yan($20), Doug Davis($6), and Ryan Drese($3) wrecked havoc on Shandler's qualitative numbers. He wound up last in wins due to the LIMA plan but escaped the basement in pitching by 3.5 points due to his 9 points in saves. Offensively, Shannon Stewart($32), Carlos Delgado($28), Corey Koskie($25), and Bobby Higginson($23), and basically everyone he drafted except Tim Salmon($17), Scott Spiezio($8), and Scott Hatteberg($5) bombed rather badly. Without the solid offensive core he expected and a lack of trade bait thanks to Yan's sporadic use as closer, I'm not surprised that Shandler couldn't fulfill our expectation of challenging for the league title.

47.0(12th) Rotowire (Scott Pianowski)

Pre-season summary: Based on his strong AL Central affiliation, I'd be surprised if he finished in the first division.

Rotowire spent all his money while allocating 69% to offense. I liked his pick-up of J.C. Romero($3) on April 6th, but then Pianowski compiled one of the worst in-season transaction records I've ever seen. He only made moves on April 6th, April 20th, May 25th, June 1st, June 8th, July 6th, August 3rd, and September 21st, a rather unorthodox selection of dates for a league with weekly transactions. Pianowski made two questionable trades by dealing C.C. Sabathia for Chuck Knoblauch and Sidney Ponson for Matt LeCroy, but moving Alex Rodriguez and John Rocker for Carlos Guillen and Jarrod Washburn on May 25th was an insane act.

Pianowski defended the deal on the Tout Wars' message board: "I did that trade, hoping that by trading for another solid SP, I could turn around and get a decent package for Buehrle. Plus, I think Guillen is pretty underrated (check his stats), and I'm not afraid to make risky, bold moves."

I obviously strongly disagree with both the move and his rationale as nothing he could receive for Buehrle would compensate for moving one of the two best players in the AL. While Guillen put up decent numbers for two months, he only managed a .248/4/28/1/43 line following the trade, essentially leaving the trade as ARod for Washburn.

So Pianowski rather obviously managed only nine points in the offensive categories as most of his draft choices struggled to find playing time even when healthy. Though his pitchers, also including Kaz Sasaki($28), Jeff Nelson($5), and Chuck Finley($4) led him to a 38-point, fourth place finish in those half of the categories, his complete lack of offense left him dead last by 5.5 points. Keeping ARod may not have made a difference given his overall roster problems, however we just don't expect to see a deal like this in Tout Wars when most of our leagues would find a way to overturn the trade.

Today's Fantasy Rx: In compiling these Tout Wars' reviews, I poured over the "features" on the USA Stats site. I couldn't find a single breakdown of transactions by team, so I spent the better part of two hours converting the horribly formatted list of transactions into a list sorted by both team and date. Most of our readers know we prefer TQ Stats based on extensive personal experience, but I'm now quite irritated with USA Stats and can't believe they don't have an obvious "transactions by team" list. Unless you absolutely must use them for a feature otherwise unavailable on other stat sites, we see no reason to patronize their service in the future.

We'd definitely like to see Tout Wars follow LABR to TQ Stats for 2003, especially since it's easier for non-owners to follow leagues on TQ, especially since no one bothered inputting the majority of Tout FAAB bids into USA Stats.