Today's Fantasy Rx

I analyzed the LABR drafts back in March, discussing the AL draft on March 9th and March 10th. Now I'd like to return to my evaluations for a couple days to see how my expectations matched the "experts".

Final Standings

83.5	All-Star Stats (Rick Wolf & Glenn Colton)
67.0	Rototimes (Nate Ravitz)
58.5	Regular Guy (Michael Brown)
56.5	Wiseguy Baseball (Gene McCaffrey & John Menna)
55.5	Baseball Weekly (John Hunt)
54.0	Sandlot Shrink (John Coleman)
49.5	MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo)
47.0	MLB Radio (Irwin Zwilling & Lenny Melnick)
45.5	Ultimate Fantasy Sports (John Zaleski)
38.0	National Sports Management (Bill Moore & Ed Cagle)
36.0	Baseball Weekly (Mat Olkin)
33.0	Baseball Weekly (Lisa Winston & Gene Wilentz)

Prior to the season, I identified All-Star Stats and Ultimate Fantasy Sports as the likely 1-2 finishers, so I'm at least quite glad I nailed the run-away first place finisher. While I expected MLB radio would finish 3rd, I also felt the Wiseguys and Sandlot Shrink would rank in the first division.

Overall, I'm fairly pleased with my basic post-draft analysis, but how did I miss the great performance by Rototimes and a strong season by the Regular Guy? I'll return to my roster breakdowns to compare my predictions with the actual finishes of the teams.

83.5(1st): All-Star Stats (Rick Wolf & Glenn Colton)

Pre-season summary: If he can FAAB even two solid players over the course of the year, he should be able to be near the lead for the entire year. This team is loaded with young but mostly proven talent on offense, and a lot of pitchers who at least shouldn't hurt him. I still can't believe he picked up Roberts for $4, even if he does lose his job before Opening Day.

All-Star Stats left $6 on the table and spent 71% of his money on hitting. Wolf made fantastic pickups in the reserve draft of Karim Garcia, Antonio Osuna, and Ted Lilly. "He thought Soriano and "AL MVP" Paul Konerko($24) were bargains." While none of his true sleepers like Willis Roberts or Jeff Liefer helped, spending a total of $77 on Soriano, Konerko, and Eric Chavez helped him finish first in RBI, second in homers, and fourth in steals.

Wolf didn't spent more than $8 on any free agent yet still managed to grab Ryan Rupe($0), Ben Weber($1), George Lombard($2), and Mark Ellis($4) for their most productive stretches. None of his four trades significantly contributed to his easy victory, however in addition to his three infield studs, Wolf also drafted Jorge Posada($18), Mike Mussina($32), and Billy Koch($25) while spending a dollar each on Mike Stanton and Luis Vizcaino. With five of the most productive players in the game, along with a solid starter and a few good relievers that helped him finish first in ERA, WHIP, and Saves, I'm quite impressed with the overall execution of his planned strategy.

67.0(2nd): Rototimes (Nate Ravitz)

Pre-season summary: Although he drafted a fairly balanced team and has a lot of potential wins from middle relief(Van Poppel, Karsay, Mendoza), he'll need a great trade or two to make the Top 3.

Rototimes left $0 on the table and spent 66% of his money on hitting. None of his reserve picks worked out, although he paid fair value for both Ichiro($34) and Beltran($32). A $1 Bobby Kielty turned out a very solid year, and both Beltran and Mike Sweeney($30) gave him a solid offensive core. He was concerned about Robin Ventura($16) when Travis Fryman went for $6, but that move obviously worked out wonderfully for him.

While Ravitz splurged on Travis Hafner($40) and Aaron Rowand($15), the keys to his season were pitching pickups: Rodrigo Lopez($4) in April, Chuck Finley($21) in mid-May, and Damaso Marte($1). His only major trade involved dealing Ichiro, Spiezio, Marte, and Einar Diaz for Ruben Sierra, Jamie Moyer, and A.J. Pierzynski at the All-Star break, so he received the best part of Ichiro's season, along with solid production from Moyer and Pierzynski. Although the best bargain on his team was a $5 Randy Winn, he would have finished second without Winn. The combination of drafting Ugueth Urbina($21), Steve Karsay($7), and Ramiro Mendoza($6) provided a tremendous foundation in saves and the qualitative categories, allowing him to finish with the second most pitching points of any team. So Ravitz found the "great trade" I suggested and finished second, albeit with a fairly unimpressive point total.

58.5(3rd): Regular Guy (Michael Brown)

Pre-season summary: I'm going to hedge my bets and say he'll finish solidly, but just outside of the Top 4.

"Regular guy" Michael Brown left $0 on the table and spent 75% of his money on hitting. None of his reserve picks helped, though he found decent values in Derek Jeter($29), Garret Anderson($24), Jeff Weaver($15), and especially David Wells($8), Ramon Ortiz($5), Shea Hillenbrand($4), and Orlando Hernandez($3).

He didn't spent more than $1 on any free agent until purchasing Matt LeCroy($17), Mickey Callaway($4), Josh Bard($3), and Scott Mullen($3) on August 25th, followed by D'Angelo Jimenez($12) and Ricardo Rodriguez($7) a week later. Then he splurged most of the rest of his FAAB on Andy Van Hekken($21), Dee Brown($17), Mark Hendrickson($12), and Lee Stevens($4) the following week while even releasing LeCroy. Among over two-dozen dollar picks, only Gary Matthews and Jared Sandberg made a substantial contribution to his teams. His only relevant trade was a swap of Sidney Ponson for Kelvim Escobar in late July. However that move netted him 20 saves, enabled him to pick up about 3 points in saves, and edge out the Wise Guys and Hunt for third place, winding up slightly higher than the finish we anticipated.

56.5(4th): Wiseguy Baseball (Gene McCaffrey & John Menna)

Pre-season summary: If almost everyone stays healthy and Shaw comes back, they should be strong enough to stay in the Top 4 most of the season, though they'll need to get several lucky wins from their pitchers to win it all.

The Wise Guys left $1 on the table and spend 66% of their money on hitting. While only Willie Harris contributed from their reserve list, their expected drafting of Rafael Palmeiro($25), Marty Cordova($10), and Bartolo Colon($20), gave them a great foundation. A $32 Manny Ramirez wound up very reasonable, however they weren't able to deal any of their excess power and even wound up dead last in speed.

Like so many other teams that defied our predictions, their $12 Derek Lowe, combined with Colon and a $1 Mark Redman, gave them a very solid pitching foundation. Unfortunately, they weren't able to add a good group of middle relievers and fifth starters, and Todd Ritchie sabotaged their qualitative numbers. The most surprising aspect to their season was a complete paucity of transactions compared to many other teams as they never rotated their pitchers. They also spent a total of $85 on David Ortiz and Oscar Henriquez in late July, two moves that only improved areas of strength. While they barely held off Hunt and Coleman to finish in the top four as we predicted, I'm somewhat disappointed with their in-season roster management.

55.5(5th): Baseball Weekly (John Hunt)

Pre-season summary: If he winds up with two closers by June, he'll be in the race until the end. Otherwise he'll need a couple of great trades to stay in the top four.

Hunt left $0 on the table while spending 70% of his money on hitters. His reserve picks didn't help at all, and while we rated LaTroy Hawkins($1) as a potential bust, he wound up one of the most valuable middle relievers in baseball, but Hunt released him on Opening Day. Fortunately he picked up two more great bargains in Jorge Julio($3) and Paul Shuey($3), along with the impressive power combination of Jim Thome($24) and Bret Boone($23).

He grabbed Damian Jackson for $21 in FAAB when he dumped Hawkins, so he addressed his SB deficiency early. A $33 Francisco Cordero pickup in late June paid handsome dividends, however he only kept Danny Wright on his roster for two weeks after grabbing him for a buck. Hunt benefited from adding Spiezio, Marte, and Ichiro even though he didn't quite receive value in dealing, but he needed one more great trade to pull ahead of Wise Guys. While he might have finished third if the season had lasted one more week, he still executed a solid strategy while avoiding any pitching disasters aside from Adam Bernero.

54.0(6th): Sandlot Shrink (John Coleman)

Pre-season summary: Coleman's right in that he acquired "big enough stars" to compensate for his cheaper players. His $1 guys are easily replaceable with smart FAAB moves, and I think he should be able to stay in the chase the entire year.

Sandlot Shrink left $0 on the table and spent 60% of his money on offense. He grabbed one of the two best reserve picks in the entire league by selecting Tim Wakefield, but he left him on reserve for half the season in favor of disasters like Dave Burba and Dan Reichert.

While he didn't make a single trade all year and only his $1 LaTroy Hawkins helped among his FAAB bids, a Hudson($25)/Buehrle($19) combo certainly helped his pitching. Unfortunately Chan Ho Park really hurt and contributed to a weak WHIP, and even though Jason Giambi($36), Torii Hunter($18), Nomar($24), Adam Kennedy($9), and Vizquel($6) had great years, he receive little for $46 on Shannon Stewart and Carl Everett. His stars remained quite solid, but between the collapse of several starting pitchers, simply terrible production from most of his scrubs, and an unimpressive year from Mariano Rivera($34), Coleman should be pleased with a first-division finish.

49.5(7th): MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo)

Pre-season summary: While there's a nice core of talent here, he'll need some lucky FAAB pick-ups or trades to finish in the money.

MLB.com left $3 on the table while spending 67% of his money on offense. Herb Perry wound up a very nice reserve pick, and Carl Crawford also wound up as mid-season trade bait. Only Ismael Valdes($3) played decently of his predicted bargains, however ARod was a great selection at $44. Fortunately Casey Fossum($1) produced a nice year as we expected, Mark Mulder($24) turned in a great season after early injury troubles, and Troy Percival also dominated all year long.

Mayo fulfilled one of our predictions by finishing last in BA, although as one of the two most active traders in the league, he fixed his ERA/WHIP weakness over five different deals. A late August pickup of Durham and Fullmer in a larger package for Olerud, Perry, and Antonio Osuna at least provided him a nice late boost, but too many holes in his offense like Jason Conti and Craig Paquette only left him with 6 points between BA, RBI, and speed. Leading the second division is a decent accomplishment, although he could have finished higher with less trades and a better use of FAAB to fix his BA troubles.

47.0(8th): MLB Radio (Irwin Zwilling & Lenny Melnick)

Pre-season summary: A nice balance of developing talent(V.Wells/C.Lee) with veteran studs(IRod/Higginson/Thomas) should insure at least a solid first division finish.

MLB Radio left $0 on the table while spending 76% of their money on hitting. None of their reserve picks provided any help, and they didn't receive a good return on guys like IRod($26), Jose Cruz($26), and Carlos Lee($20), netting only 8 steals from this group instead of the 50 they expected. They only completed two minors trades, though at least they picked up one of the best free agents of the year with a $17 Juan Acevedo, although they received practically nothing from other FAAB picks like Todd Hollandsworth($45).

I definitely liked Zwilling & Melnick's draft at the time, but moves like releasing Chuck Finley at the beginning of May certainly hurt them. Even grabbing J.C. Romero($1), Rick Reed($9), and Jarrod Washburn($16) couldn't boost them above 8 total points in ERA and WHIP due to disasters like Paul Abbott and Darren Oliver, and they hemorrhaged at-bats with Bobby Higginson, Jose Cruz, Damion Easley, and Ivan Rodriguez costing them a few places in the qualitative categories. Finally, the loss of steals thanks to Toronto and Chicago not running this year, along with a $23 Jeff Zimmerman, left their roster barren of trade bait, so there was no way to fix their pitching problems.

45.5(9th): Ultimate Fantasy Sports (John Zaleski)

Pre-season summary: While I didn't like his roster at first glance, I see a lot of potential here. If he gets good seasons out of Cirillo($18) and Kapler($22), he'll be in the hunt until the end.

Ultimate Fantasy Sports left $0 on the table while spending 72% of their money on pitching. None of Zaleski's reserve players helped and while a $14 Brad Fullmer was a nice bargain, Matt Anderson($26)'s injury problems cost him the best trade bait on his roster. Nevertheless, he still completed five trades, the majority involving Jonathan Mayo. Several decent FAAB pickups like Kevin Mench($7),Gary Matthews($1), John Lackey($4), Scot Shields($1), Brendan Donnelly($2), Cliff Politte($1), and Francisco Rodriguez($4) also provided a nice pitching boost for this Angels' fan.

The problem is that Zaleski hamstrung his roster flexibility by keeping Alfredo Amezaga and Joe Mauer rostered all year, forcing him to release Danny Wright(FAABed at both $6 and $5) and Tony Fiore instead of waiting for their solid performances. He received very little production from Juan Gonzalez($35), Gabe Kapler($22), Jeff Cirillo($18), and Jason Tyner($13), leaving only a $37 Magglio Ordonez and a $2 Raul Ibanez to drive his offense all year. A great group of LIMA relievers balanced the qualitative problems of Aaron Sele($9), Scott Schoeneweis, Shawn Sedlacek, and the really bad part of Danny Wright's season, but even a good BA didn't compensate for the quantitative disasters on offense. Few teams can withstand wasting $98 on four of the biggest roto disappointments of the year, however good roster management and an eye for pitching sleepers at least kept Zaleski out of the very basement.

38.0(10th): National Sports Management (Bill Moore & Ed Cagle)

Pre-season summary: While there's talent on this team, I don't see enough upside to secure a first division finish.

National Sports Management left $0 on the table while spending 66% of their money on hitting. Reserve picks Randall Simon and Rafael Soriano worked out nicely, however overpaying for Troy Glaus($30) and Keith Foulke($32) under their "acquire at any price" strategy failed rather badly. An $8 Eric Hinske, one of Moore's clients, was fantastic but all their nice sleepers, including a $2 Josh Phelps, only helped on offense. Cory Lidle($16) also didn't add much until the second half.

The main problem was that Matt Kinney, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Burba, Darrell May, Travis Harper, and especially Steve Parris absolutely abused their qualitative numbers. They finished dead last in ERA, WHIP, and Saves while only finishing next-to-last in wins, so only a very respectable offensive performance kept them above the last two slots. The Foulke disaster led Moore and Cagle to dump saves. Then, with only good pitching numbers from Lidle and a great June FAAB of a $3 Johan Santana, they unwisely targeted starting bargains instead of more consistent relievers, further destroying their ERA and WHIP. A couple other FAAB picks like $7 Alan Embree provided some help, but dumping a $1 Mark Ellis after only two weeks kept their middle infield weak. They didn't receive much in return for trading Foulke, and with no star offensive players other than Glaus, they couldn't deal from a shaky base. Unfortunately a relatively poor draft and questionable in-season moves like keeping Drew Henson rostered all year left them near the back of the pack.

36.0(11th): Baseball Weekly (Mat Olkin)

Pre-season summary: Mat assembled a team with tremendous potential that could also fall flat if he loses Pedro and Escobar. He didn't grab any top set-up men on the rest of his roster, leaving him exposed in saves and very dependent upon a somewhat eclectic group of starters. I think he'll finish in the first division (at least I hope he will as we also own many of these players), but there's a lot of inherent risk in this roster.

Olkin left no money on the table while employing a 60/40 split, favoring hitting. For some reason he only made transactions in three weeks of the season, activating his great reserve pick of Paul Byrd for Joe Mays in May, then dealing Escobar for Ponson in late July before FAABing Cliff Floyd($93) and Tom Prince($1) after the deadline and immediately trading them for Sandy Alomar and Carl Crawford.

While grabbing Pedro($34), Roy Halladay($14), and Byrd($0) turned out great, and sub-$10 pickups like Michael Tucker and Aubrey Huff helped his offense, he left Matt Lawton($22), Frank Catalanotto($14), Chris Carpenter($6), Steve Sparks($4), and Luke Prokopec($1) on his roster all year. That group of players completely negated the advantages of his stars in the qualitative categories, and his non-existent roster management left him short quantitatively. He could have finished in the first division by removing the ERA/WHIP drains and replacing them with a couple of smart FAAB moves, so Olkin's inattentiveness to his roster is troublesome considering his outstanding weekly work for the ex-BBW.

33.0(12th): Baseball Weekly (Lisa Winston & Gene Wilentz)

Pre-season summary: If everything breaks right, they could compete for fourth; unfortunately, I suspect they'll be lucky to finish as high as seventh, and the might fall down a few more places.

Winston and Wilentz left $3 on the table while spending 74% of their money on offense. While they stayed active all year and made a couple of decent FAAB pickups like Kyle Lohse($6), Dustan Mohr($3), Travis Driskill($8), and Chris Woodward($1), a combination of a terrible draft and weak reserve picks left them three points back of Mat Olkin's ignored squad. For some reason they drafted Kenny Baugh on reserve and kept him all year.

Is there some ridiculous rule that you have to keep your minor league reserve picks all year unless they're activated; if so, that would rank with the dumbest rules of which we've ever heard. No one should EVER select a minor leaguer in that case so that they at least maintain roster flexibility.

While Winston & Wilentz managed to easily finish first in wins, the combination of Ryan Drese, Josh Towers, and Nate Cornejo eliminated the benefits of Barry Zito($27), Joel Pineiro($15), and Kaz Sasaki($30). Of the position players they drafted, I believe only Joe Crede($2) turned a profit, leaving Miguel Tejada($32), Carlos Delgado($30), and Mike Cameron($28) to break even at best. Between overpaying for "studs" and winding up with several $1 players, only some radical trading would have kept them out of last, and AL LABR was not a league for trading this year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Please don't join a league and then ignore your team. If you're going to be in a league, either stay active throughout the year or find a substitute owner to take your place. Every league wrestles with this problem, but I can't believe we saw a LABR owner essentially abandon his team.