Today's Fantasy Rx

Once again, here are the two tables from yesterday's column:

AL	K:BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	1.7	6.3	3.7	9.7	1.2	1.22
2001	2.0	6.4	3.2	8.8	1.1	1.20
2002	1.9	6.3	3.3	9.2	1.1	1.16

NL	K:BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	1.8	6.7	3.8	9.2	1.2	1.23
2001	2.1	7.0	3.3	9.0	1.2	1.21
2002	1.9	6.8	3.5	8.8	1.0	1.26

AL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	20141	1143	551	14033	4.91	1.49
2001	20213	1138	589	14474	4.47	1.33
2002	20160	1129	558	14020	4.46	1.38

NL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	23103	1285	627	17323	4.63	1.45
2001	23074	1290	621	17930	4.36	1.37
2002	23098	1296	666	17374	4.11	1.37

Strikeouts

We saw a slight drop in strikeouts this year as rates returned to 2000 levels after the artificial increases from the "new strike zone" in 2001. However the AL clearly trailed the NL with only one 200 K pitcher as opposed to the four 200 K and two 300 K National Leaguers.

Pedro easily paced the league with 239 strikeouts, and only Clemens(192), Mussina(182), Zito(182), and Freddy Garcia(181) even broke 170. Four more pitchers, Roy Halladay(168), Ramon Ortiz(162), Mark Mulder(159), and Tim Hudson(152), reached 150 or more strikeouts, and C.C. Sabathia(149) and Jamie Moyer(147) were the only other hurlers to break 140.

In 2001, Hideo Nomo(220), Mike Mussina(214), Roger Clemens(213), Barry Zito(205), and Bartolo Colon(201) each reached 200 K. However only Tim Hudson(181) and C.C. Sabathia(171) broke 170, keeping the total number of AL pitchers above that level in 2002(5) similar to last season's seven pitchers. Nine more reached 140 or more strikeouts, which doesn't seem significantly greater than the 6 pitchers from this year between 140 and 170 K.

Unfortunately, with five less AL pitchers above 140 K this year and four less pitchers above 200K, the value of elite pitchers takes another hit here. So after analyzing ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts in the AL, I've reached the same conclusion in each category: there's little reason to invest significant assets in a stud starter.

Randy(334) and Schilling(316) easily dominated the NL, but Kerry Wood(217), Matt Clement(215), Roy Oswalt(208), and A.J. Burnett(203) all broke 200 K and Jason Schmidt(196) and Hideo Nomo(193) finished over 180 K. Unlike some of the again AL Hurlers, everyone seems poised to repeat these numbers if healthy, and pitchers like Mark Prior, Wade Miller, and Josh Beckett could attain impressive levels if they remain uninjured.

Six NL pitchers finished between 170 and 179 strikeouts, Brandon Duckworth compiled 167 K, and eight more hurlers racked 140 or more K. The depth of the National League shines in these 23 starters who compiled 140 or more strikeouts in 2002, more than double the total from the Junior Circuit.

I'm not sure we can underestimate the advantage of facing a pitcher at the plate two or three times each game when assessing the NL's strikeout advantage, although the NL also seems to harbor far more dominating youngsters. The best AL young studs, like Halladay and the A's aces, don't seem likely to break 200 K without a surprising skill increase. In 2001, Randy was the only pitcher to break 300 K, finishing at an astonishing 372, but Schilling(293), Chan Ho Park(218), Kerry Wood(217), and Javier Vazquez(208) each reached 200 K, a similar number to this season's group. Four more hurlers compiled 180-189 strikeouts while a total of 29 pitches racked 140 K or more.

We don't really see any problem with the elite NL strikeout pitchers, and considering the amount of developing talent, the NL could continue dominating here for many years even after losing the Randy advantage to retirement. Like his ERA dominance, I see no reason not to continue trusting Randy's excellent strikeout contribution for 2003.

Wins

While the NL continues to widen their lead in interleague play, I don't believe we'll ever see a drastic change in the allocation of this category unless teams move away from the 5-man rotation. I expect to see a couple of pitchers win 20-25 games each year, several more in the upper teens, a large majority in the mid-teens, and then all but perhaps 15% of regular starters should break double digits.

In the AL this year, Zito(23), Derek Lowe(21), and Pedro(20) hit twenty while a half-dozen pitchers finished with 18 or 19 wins. Nine more won between 14 and 17 games, eight pitchers won 13, and 10 pitchers won between 10 and 12 games.

After we discount the three relievers(Koch, Arthur Rhodes, and Fiore) in double digits, we're left with 33 pitchers in double-digits. With 70 rotation slots available in the AL, only 47% of starters reached 10 or more wins, however if we consider only pitchers who remained in the rotation for 175 or more IP, only 9/34, or about 26% of pitchers, failed to reach double-digit wins.

Three pitchers reached 20 wins in 2001, although only 2 starters managed 18 or 19 wins. Twelve managed 14-17 wins, four hit 13, and another fifteen pitchers finished with between 10 and 12 wins. So 36 AL pitchers managed double-digit wins in each of the last two seasons, although unlike this season, only Paul Quantrill won in double-digits despite spending the year in relief. In 2001, only 2 of the 31 pitchers who reached 175 or more IP failed to win 10 or more games, only 6%, or less than a quarter of this year's total.

The extreme finishes of most teams accounted for this change as pitchers on the Tigers, Devil Rays, Orioles, and Royals lacked the offensive support in many cases to reach 10 wins. Since I believe that the reluctance of some teams to spend significant assets in the offseason might boost some of these cellar dwellers, I'm holding to the premise that targeting established rotation members, preferably on good teams, is the best method to compiled wins. However if the offenses of the poor AL teams don't improve, then several pitchers might continue to finish with 18+ wins or less than 10 wins despite pitching 175 or more IP.

Over in the NL, Randy(24) and Schilling(23) broke 20 while Oswalt(19), Glavine(18), and Millwood(18) finished over 17. Eleven pitchers managed 14 to 17 wins and four finished at 13, but 23(!) pitchers finished in the low double-digits. Everyone in the NL with 185 or more IP reached double-digits, and 13%, 5 of the 38 pitchers, with 175 IP or more finished with 10 or more wins.

Last season, four National Leaguers managed 20 wins while no one else broke 17, keeping the number of pitchers at 18 or more wins at roughly the same number each season. Fifteen pitchers finished between 14 and 17 wins, only three posted 13, and another 19 reached the low double digits. Of the 34 pitchers with 175 or more IP, five pitchers, or 15%, reached double-digits.

The distribution of NL wins remains narrow due to the relatively competitiveness of most teams in the league. While the Brewers are bad and teams like the Cubs, Pirates, Padres, and Rockies struggled much of the year, the NL lacks the number of truly abhorrent cellar dwellers that exist in the American League. As always, I advise using a skill rating system, such as our LPR rankings, to choose pitchers, only chasing wins when necessary by adding an extra starter or two instead of quality middle relievers.

Saves

Eddie Guardado led the AL with 45 saves this year, followed by Billy Koch(44), Troy Percival(40), and Ugueth Urbina(40). However, aside from Kelvim Escobar(38) and Kazhiro Sasaki(37), no one else even reached 30 saves, illustrating the tremendous lack of save opportunities for the weaker teams in the league. Detroit, New York, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Cleveland at least managed 20 or more while Tampa Bay, Texas, and the White Sox couldn't even reach that level due to each team changing closers a couple times. A total of 18 pitchers reached double-digit saves, including two Yankees, two Rangers, and three White Sox.

In 2001, while Rivera reached 50 and Sasaki(45) and Keith Foulke(42) finished with 40 or more saves, only another four pitchers reached 30, so there's only one less closer with 30 saves this season compared to last year. Six more pitchers reached 20 saves, leaving Baltimore as the only team without a 20-save closer. Sixteen pitchers reached double-digits while Minnesota and Detroit were the only teams with two closers with 10 or more saves, and Todd Jones split the year between the two teams.

I don't see any specific pattern emerging in the AL aside from recognizing the talent in each pen. Keith Foulke never deserved to lose his job in Chicago, and the bullpens in Tampa and Texas looked very unsettled in Spring Training. Francisco Cordero has secured the Rangers' job, but Chicago, Tampa, Boston, Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland might switch closers by next season, so we'll obviously need to revisit this situation in the spring.

Smoltz(55) and Gagne(52) easily led the NL, followed by four pitchers with 40 or more saves, but then unlike the AL, six more pitchers reached 30 or more saves. Two more closers reached 20-29 saves while three more reached double-digits, leaving only Florida as a team with two double-digit closers. Scott Williamson(8 saves) would have joined the list if the Reds had moved Graves to the rotation one week earlier.

Last season five closers managed 40 or more saves, led by Robb Nen at 45, but only two more relievers reached 30 or more saves. Three more closers reached 20-29 saves although only 18 closers managed double-digit saves. Atlanta and Chicago changed closers during the season, although Milwaukee, Montreal, and St. Louis remained unsettled for much of the year.

The overall strength of Atlanta's bullpen fueled Smoltz's run but the Braves also lacked the great offense that prevents save opportunities. Eric Gagne benefited from similar factors, although he simply dominated throughout the first half before tiring towards the end of the year. Florida, Montreal, and Chicago are the only teams that appear uncertain at closer, but a change in places like New York, Milwaukee, or San Francisco wouldn't surprise me

I see nothing in any of the stats presented over the last two days to suggest a course of action other than focusing on starting pitchers with good skills and targeting closers with good dominance who their teams prefer. The only pitcher deserving of a $40 bid is Randy Johnson, although I'm comfortable with spending in the mid-30s on established closers. In mixed leagues, occasionally consider mediocre but established NL starters like some of the weaker Giants' starters instead of guys like Paul Wilson or Mark Redman who likely won't provide much wins' help.

Lastly, not only will pitchers from LA, SF, SD, NYM, SEA, CHC, and DET receive the greatest advantage over their peers, but most of these will deploy a couple of young pitchers, many of whom could rapidly increase in value.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

3:00: Minnesota@Oakland
6:30: Atlanta@San Francisco

We're already not looking too good after picking the opponents of the Angels and Cardinals(over Jess' better judgement), although I'm quite confident in the performances of both Bay teams today, especially since Livan Hernandez has never lost a playoff game. I'm slightly worried that Mark Mulder will struggle while pitching on three days' rest for the first time in his career, and any further A's difficulties should result in the deserved dismissal of Art Howe. Despite his partial protestations to the contrary, I've never seen any evidence that Howe properly embraces the Athletics' philosophy, so unless Beane leaves for Boston, I don't expect Ken Macha will need to travel to a half-dozen managerial interviews.