Today's Fantasy Rx

To begin our analysis, here are the two corresponding tables to the previous columns:

AL	K:BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	1.7	6.3	3.7	9.7	1.2	1.22
2001	2.0	6.4	3.2	8.8	1.1	1.20
2002	1.9	6.3	3.3	9.2	1.1	1.16

NL	K:BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	1.8	6.7	3.8	9.2	1.2	1.23
2001	2.1	7.0	3.3	9.0	1.2	1.21
2002	1.9	6.8	3.5	8.8	1.0	1.26

AL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	20141	1143	551	14033	4.91	1.49
2001	20213	1138	589	14474	4.47	1.33
2002	20160	1129	558	14020	4.46	1.38

NL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	23103	1285	627	17323	4.63	1.45
2001	23074	1290	621	17930	4.36	1.37
2002	23098	1296	666	17374	4.11	1.37

Is anyone else concerned by the fact that Milwaukee allowed 666 walks this year, or that National League pitchers saved exactly 666 games in 2002?

Earned Run Average

Thirty-nine American Leaguers qualified for the ERA title this year, and Red Sox pitchers Tim Wakefield and Frank Castillo qualified with the least number of innings at 163.1 IP. Pedro again led the league at 2.26, followed by Derek Lowe(2.58), Barry Zito(2.75), Wakefield(2.81), Roy Halladay(2.93), and Tim Hudson(2.98), all of whom posted ERAs below 3.00. Steve Sparks finished last in the league with a 5.52 ERA. Twenty-nine AL arms, or about 74%, finished with ERAs better than the 4.46 league average. Last year, 28 of the 35 AL pitchers who qualified for the ERA title posted ERAs superior to the 4.47 league average. In the following table I've listed the ERA breakdown for the AL over the last two years, along with defining the best, average, and worst ERA in each league.

ERA		'02 #	'01 #
2.26		1 	0
2.58-2.99	5	0
3.05		0	1(F.Garcia)
3.15-3.49	4	7
3.50-3.99	10	8
4.00-4.45	9	12
4.46		0	0
4.47		0	0
4.48-4.99	5	3
5.00-5.31	4	3
5.52		1	0
5.82		0	1(Jose Mercedes)
Total		39	35

Despite the negligible change in average league ERA, we saw a half-dozen starters drop below the 3.00 barrier this year, and while Pedro, Lowe, and Halladay didn't qualify in 2001, Zito, Wakefield, and Hudson joined them to post truly impressive seasons in 2002. With the majority of new AL stadiums favoring pitchers and only KC and TEX appearing truly troublesome for teams developing young hurlers, AL starters with solid skills appear good investments. Although I expect a small rise in the leaguewide homer rate, we might also see a rebound in saves if teams like Tampa Bay can find a solid closer. I don't believe any of the ratio trends indicates a great change in pitcher values, so although the value of top AL starters returned to pre-2001 levels, you can still contend with a balanced, low cost staff since players like Rodrigo Lopez and Derek Lowe will emerge every year as reasonably-priced studs.

Over in the NL, Randy Johnson(2.32), Greg Maddux(2.62), and Tom Glavine(2.96) led a group of 44 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. Twenty-seven of those 44 pitchers, or only 61% of eligible throwers, posted a final ERA at or below the 4.11 average ERA. In 2001, 44 pitchers again qualified for the ERA title, but only 24 of the 44, or 55%, finished with ERAs below the 4.36 league average. I've again compiled the breakdown in a table for a comparison of the last two seasons.

ERA		'02 #	'01 #
2.32		1 	0
2.49		0	1(Randy)
2.62-2.99	2	1
3.00-3.49	17	9
3.50-3.99	7	6
4.00-4.10	0	3
4.11		0	0
4.12-4.35	4	3
4.36		0	0
4.37-4.49	3	7
4.50-4.99	6	5
5.00-5.31	2	7
5.41		1	1(M. Hampton)
6.15		1(M. Hampton)
Total		44	44

While the elite starters, primarily Randy, Schilling, Maddux, Glavine, and Oswalt, all remain very helpful roto assets, the wealth of starters in the 3.00-3.49 ERA range negates the necessity of a stud starter unless you need strikeouts. Maddux and Glavine don't appear overly useful in 5x5 leagues, and they could lose additional value by switching teams. Mike Hampton also obviously isn't ownable under any standard roto system, and we advise strongly against him even if he switches teams.

The overall drop in league ERA of 0.25 strikes me as a maintainable improvement given the many excellent pitcher parks, hordes of prospective stud starters, and the apparently sustainable reduction in homer rate. Unless the WHIP tables instruct me differently, I expect to again recommend you spread your salary to several pitchers rather than keying on a stud, especially since the non-Oswalt established elite pitchers of Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Maddux, and Glavine are all injury risks.

WHIP: (Walks + Hits) / Innings Pitched

I'm completely unsurprised that Pedro(.92), D.Lowe(.97), Wakefield(1.05), and Jamie Moyer(1.08) lead the AL in WHIP. Looking at the same 39 qualified pitchers, we find that 30 of them, or 77%, finished with a WHIP at or below the 1.38 league average. In 2001, only Mark Buehrle(1.07), Mike Mussina(1.07), and Moyer(1.10) finished with a WHIP at or below 1.10, and only 17 of the 35 qualified pitchers posted a WHIP at or below the 1.33 league average, a meager 49%. So even as the league WHIP jumped .05 in 2002, almost 50% more of the regular starting pitchers provided helpful WHIP numbers.

WHIP		'02 #	'01 #
.92		1(Pedro)
.97		1	0
1.05		1	0	
1.07		0	2(M.Buehrle & M.Mussina)
1.08-1.10	1	1
1.11-1.19	10	5
1.20-1.29	8	6
1.30-1.32	2	2
1.33	0	1(S.Sparks)
1.34-1.37	4	3
1.38  (D.Wright)1	2(J.Suppan & Jas.Johnson)
1.39-1.40	1	2
1.41-1.50	6	9
1.51-1.53	0	1
1.55		0	1(Doug Davis)
1.61		2(T. Sturtze & S.Sparks)
Total		39	35

The WHIP improvement among starters appears due to both the addition of new studs like Derek Lowe and general improvement as we see a shift from pitchers in the 1.33-1.50 WHIP range to the 1.11-1.29 WHIP range. With 20 AL starters available in the latter range, I see little reason to spend on a top starter unless you're specifically chasing wins or strikeouts.

I suspect this pattern will also hold true in the NL.

The following table is somewhat different than the three previously inserted into this article as the NL average WHIP has remained at 1.37 for both 2001 and 2002.

WHIP		'02 #	'01 #
.97		1(Schilling)
.99		1(Od.Perez)	
1.01		0	1(Randy)
1.03		1(Randy)
1.04-1.10	0	3
1.11-1.19	5	5
1.20-1.29	12	12
1.30-1.36	11	6
1.37		0	1(O.Daal)
1.38-1.40	3	3
1.41-1.50	8	6
1.51-1.57	1	6
1.58		0	1(M.Hampton)
1.79		1(M.Hampton)
Total		44	44

Mirroring the trend from the AL, 31 of the 44 qualified pitchers, or 70%, posted a WHIP less than or equal to the league average, an improvement from the 64%(28/44) of 2001 NL pitchers who managed the same feat. The greatest shift of players in the NL appears from the 1.51-1.57 WHIP range to the 1.41-1.50 and 1.30-1.36 ranges, again increasing the value of the average starter who pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.

Taking both this ERA and WHIP data into consideration, I again see solid evidence for avoiding spending significant salary on all but the most established pitchers. Randy is likely the only starter deserving of a $40 bid, and while Pedro and Schilling again could approach that level, I remain quite concerned over the September struggles of the latter two pitchers. Hopefully the refined LPR will give us a better idea of the pitchers who deserve our attention, but to insure we're not leaving anything else, I'll conclude this discussion tomorrow by looking at trends in wins, saves, and strikeouts.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

12:00: Oakland@Minnesota
3:00: New York@Anaheim
3:00: Atlanta@San Francisco
6:30: Arizona@St. Louis

I recently realized that I never let everyone know which teams I wanted to win each series. In general, as is the birthright of anyone from the Chicagoland area, I favor the team that hasn't won a championship in the longest amount of time. The only exceptions to that rule are teams with one or more Hall of Famers who deserve a title and franchises that I generally support, such as Illinois teams and the sabermetrically-inclined Athletics and Blue Jays. Finally I'll occasionally root for exceptional achievements, such as teams attempting to threepeat.

Aside from supporting Jess' Cardinals(who are automatic favorites of mine by facing last year's Series' champs), I'm rooting for the Giants(Bonds) and Anaheim(never won a Series). I almost don't care between Minnesota and Oakland, however I lean slightly towards Oakland since I prefer their team composition to that of the Twins. San Francisco vs. Anaheim seems like the best Series' match-up, although another Bay Bridge Series, hopefully sans earthquake, is equally acceptable, and even the Cardinals would be a worthy NL representative.