Today's Fantasy Rx

For reference, here are two tables which spurred yesterday's column:

AL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.61	.11	.82	69%	.276/.349/.443
2001	.50	.09	.81	71%	.267/.344/.428
2002	.51	.09	.82	68%	.264/.329/.424

NL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.56	.11	.80	69%	.266/.342/.432
2001	.48	.10	.80	66%	.261/.331/.425
2002	.52	.10	.80	68%	.259/.328/.410

AL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	78547	11995	2688	11418	1297
2001	78164	11013	2506	10508	1647
2002	77788	10892	2464	10271	1236

NL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	88743	12976	3005	12317	1626
2001	88100	12186	2952	11580	1456
2002	87794	11516	2595	10961	1514

Runs Batted In

Major leaguers batted in 2503 less runners this year than in 2000 despite only accumulating 1708 less at-bats, indicating that RBI are falling at both the net and ratio levels.

American Leaguers didn't sharply reflect this trend as eight batters reached 110 RBI, 6 batted in 120 or more, and then Miguel Tejada(131) and Magglio Ordnez(135) were below only ARod(142) a the top of the leader board. A total of 20 batters reached 100 RBI and 26 achieved 90.

In 2001, Bret Boone led the league with 141, followed by JuanGone(140) and ARod(135). However eight batters reached 120 and 14 reached 110, although only 20 AL hitters, the same number as this year, reached 100 RBI. Twenty-seven batters also drove in 90 runners, so at both the 90 RBI and 100 RBI levels, the distribution of power in the AL didn't change by any noticeable level.

The vital difference is in the elite hitters, since while three batters reached 130+ RBI in each season, two less hitters reached 120 RBI this year and six less batters reached 110. ARod's already expensive cost appears an even better investment considering he was the only hitter to repeat at 135+ and he fills SS. Jason Giambi was the only other AL hitter to reach 120 or more RBI in each season, suggesting that only these two batters deserve $40+ bids in most leagues (aside from anyone boosted by impressive SB value). If offense continues to fall, the elite players will remain solid investments as the 20/80 and obviously the 30/100 players regain more value.

In the National League, Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols paced the field with 128 and 127 RBI respectively. Five other batters reached 110, 9 others achieved 100, and only a total of 22 players drove in a total of 90 or more runners.

These numbers stand in sharp contrast to 2001, when Sosa hit 160, and Todd Helton(146), Luis Gonzalez(142), Bonds(137), Pujols(130), and Bagwell(130) all topped this year's leaders. Eleven hitters reached 120 RBI, although only 15 hit 110, 25 hit 100, and 35 hit 90 or more.

The NL trends strongly reinforced our AL conclusions, except that the average power hitter appeared to drive in about ten less runs in 2002 than in past years. With the number of guys with 100 RBI dropped by almost two-thirds, and even the numbers of hitters with 80 or more RBI falling from 41 to 33, many teams likely fell below their power goals. However I also expect a reduced drop in the dollar value of NL power hitters than with their AL counterparts since all stratified NL RBI levels shifted down, while the AL saw only the elite hitters decrease in value.

Without the guarantee of a Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, or other dominant hitter amassing power numbers at the 60/140 level, Vlad jumps out from the list as the best investment in the league, a player potentially worth approaching $50 in standard leagues with moderate inflation. Assuming a reasonable distribution of top hitters among all teams, your third best power guy may have been Steve Finley, Reggie Sanders, or Juan Encarnacion, players who you normally wouldn't want higher than perhaps your 3rd outfield slot.

For 2003, focus on power hitters between the ages of 25 and 33 who possess secure, defined roles in lineups where the hitters at the top of the order can actually get on base on a regular basis. Of course, since several of the premier speed guys in the NL could change teams, keep track of leadoff development around baseball to maximize your potential RBI acquisitions.

Runs

I'm somewhat surprised that Runs fell nearly as fast as RBI over the last two years. In 1708 less AB, Runs dropped by only 2563 while RBI dropped by 2503. The level of total runs is generally 5% greater than league RBI totals, but over the last two years, the difference in these decreases is only 2%.

One logical explanation for the similar reduction in both RBI and Runs is that HR fell by 634 over the last two years. Even as the ratio of HR/R has remained similar over the last two years, we can attribute nearly a quarter of the fall in RBI and Runs to the HR decrease. I'm certainly open to alternative theories and would welcome any suggestions.

Moving onto discussing specific players, three Yankees led the AL in Runs as Soriano(128), Jeter(124), and Jason Giambi(120) all finished in the top 4. Only ARod(125) managed to prevent their complete monopoly on the category. Five other AL batters reached 110 RBI, a total of 16 scored 100 times, and 26 crossed the plate 90 or more times.

Last year only ARod(133) and Ichiro(127) broke 120 and five batters reached 110 Runs. However 17 batters scored 100 times while 30 crossed the plate 90 or more times. Even as RBI levels fell this year, the elite run scorers elevated their games, though we can again attribute the change here almost exclusively to the Yankees. Only Jeter(110) and Bernie Williams(102) broke 100 runs for New York in 2001, and while Bernie posted an identical run total, Giambi switched to New York while Jeter jumped 12 runs and Soriano jumped by an amazing 51 runs in a similar amount of playing time. If we discount the improved Yankees' offense, the number of AL players reaching the 110, 100, and 90 Runs' levels looks very similar over the last two years.

ARod remains an amazing investment while the hitters at the top of the lineup on New York, Oakland, Boston, and Toronto all look like excellent choices for 2003.

In the NL in 2002, Sosa paced the league at 122 Runs, followed by Pujols(118), Bonds(117), and Shawn Green(110). A total of 11 players reached 100 Runs and 26 scored 90 or more times.

Those numbers appear in sharp contrast to 2001 where Sosa led the league with 146 Runs and Helton cross the plate 132 times. Seven hitters reached 120 or more Runs, 14 hit 110 Runs, 20 scored 100 or more times, and 30 players racked 90 or more Runs.

Roughly the same number of players scored 90 or more Runs in both years, and only about half as many NL hitters reached the 100 RBI levels. However with only one player reaching 120 Runs this year compared to the 7 guys from 2001, the Runs' contribution of elite hitters in 5x5 leagues looks sharply reduced, suggesting that exceeding $40 for more than a couple players, likely Vlad and perhaps Sosa or Helton, is probably a mistake.

After analyzing the four quantitative categories over the last two days, I suggest you invest in the elite AL batters while potentially spreading your risk somewhat in the NL. However you should focus on the teams in each league that you expect to score the most Runs, since by definition, those teams possess the most opportunities for high totals in Runs or RBI.

Tomorrow we'll look at changes in BA and other select offensive scenarios that deserve discussion before progressing to pitching on Saturday.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

3:00: St. Louis@Arizona
7:00: San Francisco@Atlanta

Also, we thoroughly advocate documenting each league every year and find this record especially necessary for keeper leagues. If you haven't already printed copies of both league standings and your team's player stats, please do so immediately as we've heard that some stat services don't keep scores on-line for more than a few days.