Today's Fantasy Rx

Today continues the review of my Underachiever and Overachiever columns this year, now focusing on pitching instead of hitting.

As previously stated, to quantitatively review my analysis, I'll give myself credit for an "acquire" if a player posted improved numbers for the month compared to his previous performance, credit for a "wait" if he posted similar numbers, and credit for a "deal" if they slumped as I expected. I'll also separately keep track of my degree of difference by determining the correct recommendation with hindsight. To determine this measurement, I'll add 1 point for either a "wait" on an "acquire" or "deal" (or vice-versa) and 2 points for an "acquire" on a "deal" (or vice-versa). Hopefully I won't exceed an average difference of 1 for any article, and I'll be very happy if I managed a .5 or less most of the time.

If I noted that a player missed time due to injury in the following month's recap, I won't consider that recommendation when totaling results. To simplify the tables, I've used Σ for all sum and/or total notations and Δ for all reference to the differences between my recommendation and the correct recommendation.

Table notation:
#/Σ	Total Correct / Total Recommendations
ΣΔ	Sum of the total differences
		between correct and actual recommendations
Δ/Σ	Sum of the differences divided by total recommendations

AL Underachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	7/13	7	.54
May	5/12	8	.67
June	4/10	7	.70
July	7/12	6	.50
August	7/14	74	.50
Total	30/61	35	.57

With only four complete misses and a .57 average difference, I see little wrong with the slight variance here considering that pitchers are generally more erratic performers than position players.

NL Underachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	9/16	8	.50
May	5/12	8	.67
June	9/15	7	.47
July	7/14	8	.57
August	11/16	6	.38
Total	41/73	37	.51

My NL predictions showed more variance than AL Underachivers, but the outlying numbers are more in my favor than the previous level. I missed 5 predictions by a significant amount, although I spread them out, blowing one forecast in each of the five articles.

AL Overachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	8/14	7	.50
May	8/13	6	.46
June	9/13	4	.31
July	7/14	8	.57
August	6/13	9	.69
Total	38/67	34	.51

This group looks even better than the previous two, and I continued to stay much below 1.00 and relatively near .50. I again only missed 4 predictions by a significant amount, so I'm displaying much better consistency here than I managed with most of the batting articles.

NL Overachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	12/15	3	.20
May	7/16	9	.56
June	5/14	9	1.00
July	8/16	9	.56
August	5/15	13	.87
Total	37/76	43	.57

While I posted the two worst pitching columns of the year under NL Overachievers, I didn't significantly miss a single prediction until July, although I also blew four forecasts over the last two columns. However I also managed the best pitching column of the year back in April, and like the three previous groups, I don't see any glaring problems.

Reflecting on pitching Underachievers and Overachievers as a group, I posted either a .51 or .57 average difference in each of these articles, indicating about half the players should have been a "wait" instead of an "acquire" or "deal" (or vice-versa). This situation suggests I again may have been too aggressive with some of my predictions, but as a reader advised me early in the year, most Rotohelp readers probably want a more concrete suggested course of action when possible.

As pitching is also traditionally more difficult to predict than hitting stats, I attribute my apparent success here to focusing on relatively new methods of analysis, including G-F ratio, PQS trends, and, of course, the weekly LPR rankings.

After analyzing the in-season pitching columns, I'm now returning to our pre-season pitching predictions. While I'm still working on specific value analysis, I can provide commentary on some general forecasts.

American League

Best AL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to exceed their DV: Ted Lilly, Casey Fossum, and J.C. Romero. I'm quite pleased with each of these selections, especially that of J.C. Romero. Assuming the Twins force open a rotation spot, Johan Santana might join the ranks of elite 5x5 starters in 2003.

Best all-around starting pitcher sleepers: Cory Lidle, Danys Baez, Chan Ho Park, Kevin Appier, and Joel Pineiro. The glaring omission here is Derek Lowe, and I doubt we missed a more important projection. We expected Baez to succeed while Lowe encountered arm problems, although if you replace Baez with Lowe in our list, I don't see many problems. Acosta contributed to Park's health problems, and Park pitched great when finally healthy in the latter months of the season. Lidle absolutely dominated for much of the second half, and Appier and Pineiro both surprised most people this year. Unlike nearly every other baseball and roto publication, we also at least listed Rodrigo Lopez as a potentially solid rookie pitcher. Johns Lackey and Stephens top our sleeper list for next year. Tim Wakefield might also continue his re-emergence as a fantastic starter.

Best AL Saves Sleepers: Jack Cressend, David Riske, and Antonio Osuna. Osuna worked out great, but Cressend and Riske failed this season like few other formerly highly skilled relievers. Francisco Cordero and Steve Karsay would have been solid alternates here, however only Irabu, Karsay, Osuna, Marte, and Cordero emerged as solid part-time closing options while Jose Acevedo was the sole significant surprise. Franklyn German, Travis Harper, and Alan Embree will contend for this ranking next season.

AL Relievers most likely to exceed 10 vultured Wins: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Todd Van Poppel, and Steve Karsay. Arthur Rhodes won the 10 games we expected from Hasegawa, Texas combusted under the strain of a dozen injuries, and Ramiro Mendoza won 8 games to Karsay's 6. The only pitchers who won double-digit games while pitching primarily in relief were Billy Koch at 11 wins and Rhodes and Tony Fiore at 10 wins each. Jay Powell, Cliff Politte, and Keith Foulke appear early contenders for this slot next year.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Steve Karsay, Paul Shuey, and Mike Stanton. All three guys make positive contributions even though Shuey collapsed in the NL. Karsay and Stanton excelled as Rivera's replacements.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Arthur Rhodes, Buddy Groom, Jim Mecir, and Travis Phelps. Rhodes and Groom pitched great all year, Mecir lacked consistency but posted decent numbers, and Phelps just stunk for practically the entire season. Cliff Politte seems a logical choice to join this list.

National League

Best NL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to exceed their DV: Cliff Politte, Scott Williamson, and Damian Moss. Williamson and Moss pitched great for most of the year, and while Politte also pitched rather well, Vicente Padilla would have been a better pick. Juan Cruz, Jason Middlebrook, and Britt Reames might deserve mention here in the future.

Best all-around starting pitcher sleepers: Steve Trachsel, Kevin Jarvis, Glendon Rusch, and Kurt Ainsworth. Jarvis missed most of the year with arm troubles, the Giants lacked rotation space for Ainsworth, and Rusch struggled more than expected. Only Trachsel met our expectations as Kevin Millwood, Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, and A.J. Burnett emerged as young studs. Expect to see youngsters from the Cubs, Giants, and Padres reside here in 2003.

Best NL Saves Sleepers: Eric Gagne, Vladimir Nunez, and Luis Vizcaino. I don't think anyone can argue with these predictions, and I certainly contend Vizcaino would have excelled if given a larger opportunity. Vizcaino, Williamson, Blaine Neal, Juan Cruz, Felix Rodriguez, and Todd Jones seem logical picks for 2003 sleeper saves.

NL Relievers most likely to exceed 10 vultured Wins: Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, and Mike Remlinger. No regular reliever reaches 10 wins, but four managed 8 wins: Byung-Hyung Kim, Felix Rodriguez, Tim Worrell, and Jeff Fassero; Remlinger managed 7 wins and Dotel won 6 games. Farnsworth's meltdown might just be the result of his girlfriend delivering their first kid, as well as problems with Cubs' management, so he could easily re-emerge next season. Dotel and any reliever from the Braves or Giants could contribute here next season.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Felix Rodriguez. Although he struggled most of the year, he also regained his skills by the end of he season, leaving him a solid choice in the future.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Jason Christiansen, Vic Darensbourg, and Jeff Fassero. Christiansen missed most of the year while injured and Darensbourg slipped, but Fassero at least won 8 games even if his ERA hurt. Dotel and Remlinger are obviously logical selections here, and relief sleepers include Scott Strickland, Steve Reed, Joey Eischen, and Scott Sauerbeck.

Top 2002 Pitcher Sleeper: Jose Acevedo. Like our Jeremy Giambi problem, Acevedo irritated management and never returned to the majors after completing two solid starts and struggling once. His minor league numbers were quite solid, especially considering this was his first AAA experience. Now that he's regained the normal developmental track we prefer, Acevedo appears even more prepared to succeed in the majors, and we see little reason not to push him again for your 2003 pitching staff.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

3:00: Minnesota@Oakland
7:00: Anaheim@New York
10:00: St. Louis@Arizona

I haven't actually decided what I'll write for tomorrow. Although I'd planned to begin discussing the LPR changes, I'm now leaning towards two days of discussion about various statistical macrotrends that developed this season. Let me know if you've observed any particular stat trend you want to see examined.