Today's Fantasy Rx

My goal in the Monday through Thursday columns this year was to accurately predict when to acquire or deal 60 players each week. Based upon the stats' update I provided for those players in the following month, I believe I accomplished my goal in the majority of cases. For our purposes today and tomorrow, I'm limiting this recap to the batting Underachiever and Overachiever articles since the monthly trends and minor league updates are more difficult to grade.

To quantitatively review my analysis, I'll give myself credit for an "acquire" if a player posted improved numbers for the month compared to his previous performance, credit for a "wait" if he posted similar numbers, and credit for a "deal" if they slumped as I expected. I'll also separately keep track of my degree of difference by determining the correct recommendation with hindsight. To determine this measurement, I'll add 1 point for either a "wait" on an "acquire" or "deal" (or vice-versa) and 2 points for an "acquire" on a "deal" (or vice-versa). Hopefully I won't exceed an average difference of 1 for any article, and I'll be very happy if I managed a .5 or less most of the time.

If I noted that a player missed time due to injury in the following month's recap, I won't consider that recommendation when totaling results. To simplify the tables, I've used Σ for all sum and/or total notations and Δ for all reference to the differences between my recommendation and the correct recommendation.

Table notation:
#/Σ	Total Correct / Total Recommendations
ΣΔ	Sum of the Total Differences
	between Correct and Actual Recommendations
Δ/Σ	Sum of the Differences / Total Recommendations

AL Underachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	9/12	4	.33
May	5/11	8	.73
June	5/13	8	.62
July	5/12	8	.75
August	7/13	8	.62
Total	31/61	36	.59

A little over half of my recommendations were off, mostly from taking a more aggressive stance instead of waiting on consistent performers. Only 3 of the 61 recommendations were either "acquire" when I should have said "deal" or vice-versa.

NL Underachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	12/16	4	.25
May	7/16	11	.69
June	12/14	6	.43
July	9/15	6	.40
August	11/15	7	.47
Total	51/76	34	.45

I easily nailed more NL Underachievers than any other group, correctly anticipating over two-thirds of player performances. While I allowed 6 completely incorrect predictions, I'm quite pleased with both the accuracy and consistency of this group, especially since I met my .50 Δ or less in every month but May.

AL Overachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	8/14	8	.57
May	3/14	15	1.07
June	11/14	4	.29
July	7/14	10	.71
August	10/14	5	.36
Total	39/70	42	.60

From my 11 severe misses to the most inconsistency of any offensive article series, I didn't meet my expectations in AL Overachievers. I posted my second-worst hitting advice column of the year here in May, but at least I hopefully helped you in most of the other months, especially with the solid June and August predictions.

NL Overachievers
Month	#/Σ	ΣΔ	Δ/Σ
April	2/16	18	1.13
May	6/15	12	.80
June	11/15	5	.33
July	10/16	6	.38
August	7/14	8	.57
Total	36/73	49	.67

Aside from the disastrous April article, most of the other NL Overachiever columns looks pretty decent. June and July rank with some of my best advice of the year, although I also complete missed 9 projections.

Overall, I'm content with the first year of the Hitting Underachievers and Overachievers series. In examining the articles in retrospect, most of my errors seem based in either aggressiveness or inaccurately assessing the opinion in which a given team holds a specific player. I plan to essentially continue these columns in future years, although I'm going to have to try to take action on my own predictions in the future since we barely missed picking up some players that emerged after April like Bernie Williams and Mark Bellhorn.

After analyzing the in-season hitting columns, I'm now returning to our pre-season hitting predictions. While I'm still working on specific value analysis, I can provide some general commentary on some general forecasts.

American League

Most Likely Breakouts by position:

Catcher: Ben Davis and Mark L. Johnson. The only real breakouts here were players who qualified at catcher but played at other positions like Fick and Josh Phelps. A.J. Pierzynski had a great year after also succeeding last season. No one else posted particularly surprising numbers. Hopefully Toby Hall will finally explode in 2003 with regular playing time.

Corners: Paul Konerko, Troy Glaus, and Eric Chavez. Glaus bombed but I nailed the other two. Eric Hinske, while performing better offensively than any other 3B in the majors, wasn't a true breakout since he lacked any prior major league experience. Raul Ibanez, Scott Hatteberg, and Scott Spiezio all posted strong years, even though only Hatteberge both stayed at first all season and surprised nearly everyone. Hillenbrand's breakout tailed off by the end of the year, however Joe Crede and possibly even Jared Sandberg could surprise in 2003.

Middle infielders: Jerry Hairston and Miguel Tejada. I obviously missed Soriano due to questioning his weak skills, and Kennedy also outperformed Hairston, who barely kept his job for much of the year. David Eckstein continues to impress and ARod keeps excelling, but Chris Woodward probably had the true breakout season among shortstops even if he likely won't even start in 2003. Potential breakouts for next season include Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Felipe Lopez.

Outfielders and DH: Jeremy Giambi, Gabe Kapler, Jacque Jones, and Brad Fullmer. Two and a half out of four here as Jones and Fullmer provided excellent contributions and Giambi ranked with the best hitters in the league when he played. Kapler bombed like few other players this year even if he did suffer from injuries part of the year. Melvin Mora, Randy Winn, Vernon Wells, and Gary Matthews, Jr. compiled strong seasons. Karim Garcia played great for the last two months and could start next year in Cleveland. Aubrey Huff also established himself as a potential consistent All-Star. Carlos Lee and Milton Bradley strike me as two players who might leap forward in 2003.

Top 3 Batters who could exceed our projection with increased playing time: Homer Bush, Rondell White, and Jeff Liefer. White played badly most of the year, Liefer never found any playing time, and Bush found himself released by two organizations. Liefer looked decent in his limited at-bats, but better players for here would have included Scott Hatteberg and Herb Perry.

Top 3 "$1" Catchers: Ben Davis, Geronimo Gil, and Shawn Wooten. All three of these picks performed relatively acceptably, and I don't see any obvious superior choices. Javier Valentin might be a good pick here in 2003.

National League

Most Likely Breakouts by position:

Catcher: Michael Barrett. While he failed to fulfill his September promise, he ranks among the top half-dozen catchers in the league in offensive production. Corky Miller might be a good candidate for next year here.

Corners: Richie Sexson and Scott Rolen. Both these players excelled for most of the season. Matt Franco quietly posted some great numbers in Atlanta, and Mike Lowell and Aaron Boone each improved their production, but there was little wrong with the initial picks. Erubiel Durazo and Adrian Beltre could rank here in 2003.

Middle infielders: Luis Castillo, Orlando Cabrera, and Edgar Renteria. They respectively achieved a 35-game hitting streak, a career year in steals, and ranking with Jose Hernandez as the best shortstop in the league. Alex Cora posted some surprising numbers, but the easy standouts were Junior Spivey and Mark Bellhorn. Whoever winds up as the 2B and SS for Colorado and San Diego will deserve consideration here next season.

Outfielders: Mark Kotsay, J.D. Drew, Preston Wilson, Geoff Jenkins, Juan Encarnacion, and Richard Hidalgo. None of these players reached any true breakouts, and most instead provided severe disappointment to their owners. Only Encarnacion produced nice numbers, and he faded in the second half, though Kotsay helped the Padres more than his fantasy owners. Dave Roberts and Alex Sanchez accounted for most of the new outfield help, but we were also pleased with Timo Perez's re-emergence in New York. Eli Marrero certainly also deserves credit for his great performance. Early 2003 breakout contenders include Daryle Ward, Corey Patterson, and potentially J.D. Drew and Adam Dunn if they can stay healthy and surrounded with productive teammates.

Top 3 Batters who could exceed this projection with increased playing time: J.D. Drew, Brady Clark, and Ron Belliard. Nobody from this group even reached our apparently high expectations. Junior Spivey, Mark Bellhorn, Geoff Blum, Alex Sanchez, and Eli Marrero could have replaced our sleepers.

"Cheap" speed that could be drafted inexpensively: Kerry Robinson, Eric Owens, and Alex Sanchez. Owens and Sanchez both excelled, although LaRussa apparently forgot Robinson existed in the second half. Dave Roberts emerged as a credible third option here.

Top 3 "$1" Catchers: Eli Marrero, Brian Schneider, and Yorvit Torrealba. Marrero obviously outproduced expectations. Schneider and Torrealba never had the chance to start as they remained backups to two of the more unexpected catcher performances of the year; while both managed decent numbers, Todd Pratt would have helped to a greater extent. Jason Phillips, along with Schneider and Torrealba, seem like potential choices here for next year.

Top 2002 Batter Sleepers: Jeremy Giambi and Sean Burroughs. Injuries derailed the latter and prevented him from developing any power (or even keeping a good BA). Any regular Rotohelp reader knows our opinion of the Giambi situation, but to briefly recap, he posted .322 EQA, a lower mark than only ten outfielders, seven 1B, Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez, and twelve September call-ups, none of whom received even around a tenth of Giambi's at-bats. Oakland and Philly combined to waste his likely breakout year, and we certainly hope that Philly will move him to the AL, perhaps in a package for Carlos Delgado.

Tomorrow I'll explore my pitcher ranking and recommendations from throughout the season in a similar format to today's article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm interested in seeing any of your projections that you either nailed or completely missed. Please send me any player stories you wish, and also let me know if you'd mind if I used them in a future column.