Today's Fantasy Rx

Tell me, Muse, of the man of many ways, who was driven
far journeys, after he had sacked Troy's sacred citadel.

As tools' goofs without the necessary baseball skills enter into organizations under the camouflage of glowing scouting reports, every fantasy owner can tell tales of terrible trades in which Yoo-Hoo dreams disappeared. So many players repeatedly tantalize you, forcing you to overpay for them during the season before immediately reverting into rotting pumpkins at the midnight transaction deadline. If we wanted to establish an award for these teases, we'd name it after Larry Walker due to the his fascinating combination of five-category MVP talents, Coors' residence, and annual nagging injuries. When healthy, he ranks at the top of nearly any player list, but like the mandatory discounting of pitchers at the draft due to the higher DL risk, Walker's draft price is probably 20% lower than we'd otherwise expect in most leagues.

In looking over the dramatically inconsistent players this season, the players we've owned obviously jump out at me, although owning over a dozen teams certainly forces us to keep track of nearly every major leaguer. While plenty of players deserve recognition here, I'm limiting discussion to those who at least started great, slumped badly, and then rebounded, or who slumped through the first two months, exploded around the All-Star break, and now aren't helping at the end of the year. Anyone who shows even more dramatic monthly swings is also quite welcome.

You will come first of all to the Sirens, who are enchanters
of all mankind and however comes their way; and that man
who unsuspecting approaches them, and listens to the Sirens
singing, has no prospect of coming home and delighting
his wife and little children as they stand about him in greeting,
but the Sirens by the melody of their singing enchant him.

Stolen bases remain an especially precious commodity given that no "speedster" likely even will reach 50 steals this year. Eric Young grabbed 11 bags in April and May, a total of 5 in June and July, likely inducing some owners to move him, and then he rebounded with 15 steals in the last two months. Jimmy Rollins appeared to avoid a sophomore slump by stealing 9 bases through May 11th, but then he only managed 6 SB over the next two months. After the All-Star break, we began reading stories about Rollins starting to rediscover his lost aggressiveness, and he proceeded to steal 11 bases through the end of August. Anyone expecting him to continue at that pace probably is hurting in steals, since the 2001 NL ROY has grabbed all of three SB this month.

Few players antagonize owners quite like Roger Cedeno. Following his breakout 66 SB season in 1999, he only stole 25 bases with Houston before exploding for another 55 SB last year. Now he's back with the Mets, and instead of rediscovering the speed he showed three years ago, he hasn't even reached two dozen steals. The only good news here is that, after averaging over 14 CS each of the last three years, he's only been thrown out 4 times this season. Unfortunately, unless your league uses net steals, you probably weren't pleased with his monthly progression.

April		2
May		5
June		4
July		1
August		3
September	8

At least Cedeno might build upon his September gains for a strong 2003 season, but most of his owners probably lost a few standings' points due to approaching $30 for an expected SB total over 50.

One of the reasons our Challenge teams slumped is that we rostered players who received less playing time than we expected, thereby decreasing our quantitative stats. Dozens of players deserved the "DNP - Manager's Decision" on most days, but a few potential studs completely burned us.

Almost everyone reading this knows the extent to which we boosted Jeremy Giambi in the pre-season, and we were rather happy through mid-May. Billy Beane's Oakland rehab required exiling Jeremy to Philly, where Larry Bowa promptly left him benched in favor of Travis Lee. I know the Phillies own one of the best defenses in baseball, but sacrificing .254 in OPS on a nightly basis likely cost Philadelphia a couple games in the standings. Less patient owners moved away from Jeremy as I refused to believe Bowa would consciously attempt to lose more games than necessary.

Daryle Ward didn't match anyone's power expectations despite solid skills, although Houston's hiring of Jimy Williams didn't help this situation. I doubt many people expected Jose Vizcaino to reach 400 AB, Geoff Blum to break 350 AB, and nominal pinch-hitter Orlando Merced to approach 250 AB. Even Brian L. Hunter's almost at 200 AB, and while we recognized that Houston possessed solid bench depth, I never expected they'd demote someone like Morgan Ensberg to play historically unimpressive veterans.

While I've focused mostly on NL teases so far, the AL possessed a number of equally worthy Rotosirens. Raul Ibanez looked ready to lose his roster spot at the end of May after only compiling 1 homer and 14 RBI. He then exploded for 21 HR and 81 RBI over the next three months before only managing 2 homers and 8 RBI in September. Even if he helped many owners finish in the money, we stayed in the ranks of those who expected a slump and remain more surprised by his summer production than by his feeble performance in the surrounding three months.

Although Frank Thomas leads the AL with a .40 G-F ratio, he might have played his last home game as a member of the White Sox yesterday. He hit .265 in the first two months of the season with 11 HR and 41 RBI, and then he only managed 6 HR and 22 RBI over the next two months, not even equal to just his May totals. Now he's crushing the ball to the tune of a .362 BA and 1.173 OPS, perhaps in a last-ditch attempt to convince Chicago management not to defer all but $250K of his salary in each of the next few seasons. He fell below a .300 BA for the first time in 1998, hit .305 but couldn't manage a .500 SLG for the first time in 1999, almost won the MVP in 2000, and then missed almost all of 2001 after tearing his triceps last year. Now he's finishing another bizarre season, leaving him as one of the most vexing players for most prognosticators to project for 2003, regardless of his team.

I could list and discuss probably half the position players in baseball, and for every guy I mention, we could find an owner to tell us how he lost a spot or two in the standings because of acquiring or dealing that player. I've reviewed some of the primary culprits of offensive inconsistency today, and tomorrow I'll continue this thread by examining the most inconsistent pitchers using PQS data.

They sit in their meadow, but the beach before it is piled with boneheaps
of men now rotted away, and the skins shrivel upon them.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We recently purchased a dozen blobs of cholesterol at Dunkin' Donuts, and while transferring donuts from the box to a plate, we noticed a dead bee in our box. Dunkin Donuts' founder William Rosenberg died last Friday at age 86, and apparently now there's no one supervising quality control in his franchises. So now we need to look for yet another new donut place for the one or two times a year we feel a need for baked sugar.

Please don't bother suggesting Krispy Kreme to us since we were back at DD due to the poor service at the nearby KK klavern. Now I see why Krispy Kreme doesn't use abbreviations in their advertising.