Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Mike Morgan, RH Reliever
1-1 on 13:9 K:BB in 34 IP over 29 G with 41 H, 7 HR, and a 5.29 ERA.

Pitching in four different decades before finally winning a ring should give Morgan a sense of accomplishment, but he's just not a contributing force to a successful team any more. His walk rate is fairly low but a 3.4 K/9 isn't high enough to keep anyone in the majors. A 1.9 HR/9, fueled by a career-worst 1.45 G-F, far below his 2.30 G-F norm, also will keep his ERA above acceptable levels. Certainly deal or cut Morgan, especially since he might actually retire this off-season.

August Overachiever: Mike Koplove, RH Reliever
Old stats: 4-1 on 30:14 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 40 G with 26 H, 1 HR, and a 1.90 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-0 on 15:7 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 12 G with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 5.71 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer; May: Curt Schilling, RH Ace; June: Randy Johnson, LH Future Hall of Fame Ace; July: John Patterson, RH Starter.

Atlanta: Tom Glavine, LH Starter
18-11 on 125:76 K:BB in 222.2 IP over 35 GS with 207 H, 21 HR, and a 2.95 ERA.

He's earned a nice new contract after carrying Atlanta in the spring before the other pitchers returned to their expected forms, and while Glavine's slumped in the second half, he's an acceptable choice for a bunch of third place Cy Young votes. Despite a career-worst 1.06 G-F, he improved his homer rate from 1.0 to .8 HR/9, though I'm more impressed by a walk rate drop to 3.1 BB/9 from the 4.0 he managed in 2001, the worst mark since his rookie season. While Glavine turned 36 this past March, he should remain a viable starter for a few more years and deserves the extension we expect Atlanta to offer. However, his skills still suggest a pending ERA jump, so deal Glavine for someone with more upside like Millwood or Randy Wolf.

August Overachiever: Damian Moss, LH Starter
Old stats: 8-5 on 92:72 K:BB in 146.2 IP over 23 GS(26G) with 106 H, 15 HR, and a 3.31 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 23:15 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 5 GS with 25 H, 3 HR, and a 4.74 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Gryboski, RH Reliever; June: Chris Hammond, LH Reliever; July: Kerry Ligtenberg, RH Reliever.

Chicago Cubs: Alan Benes, RH Starter
2-2 on 24:12 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 6 GS with 37 H, 2 HR, and a 4.59 ERA.

Benes's return from severe troubles has impressed us, but his 330530 PQS log depicts a very inconsistent pitcher. A career-worst .53 G-F also worries me considering he experienced homer problems when starting in the past, any a rise in his .5 HR/9 would send his ERA over 5.00. He'll turn 31 in January, and although he might compete for a rotation spot in the spring and would be an adequate 5th starter for some teams, I'm not comfortable running him in roto. Deal or cut Alan Benes to avoid qualitative damage.

August Overachiever: Joe Borowski, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-4 on 74:25 K:BB in 76.1 IP over 58 G with 64 H, 7 HR, and a 2.59 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 14:4 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 13 G with 14 H, 2 HR, and a 3.52 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Cruz, RH Starter; May: Antonio Alfonesca, RH Closer; June: Matt Clement, RH Starter; July: Carlos Zambrano, RH Starter.

Cincinnati: Danny Graves, RH Starter
6-3 and 32 Saves on 51:23 K:BB in 92.2 IP over 3 GS(67G) with 95 H, 7 HR, and a 3.40 ERA.

The Reds finally followed through on their threat to move Graves into the rotation, and a 032 PQS log isn't too embarrassing considering he hadn't stretched his arm out for that first start and only went four innings. At least his 2.2 K:BB is the second best mark of his career, and a 2.10 G-F and a .7 HR/9 are helpful improvements from 2001. I expect Graves could emerge as a decent 3rd or 4th starter, but he was probably more valuable to Cincinnati as an established closer in trade talks. His roto value will take a far greater hit, leaving him as someone to deal now in case anyone thinks he might close in 2003.

August Overachiever: John Riedling, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 19:18 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 22 G with 28 H, 2 HR, and a 2.55 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or reserve.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 9:7 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 9 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 4.15 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter; May: Chris Reitsma, RH Starter; June: Luis Pineda, RH Swingman; July: Jimmy Haynes, RH Starter.

Colorado: Kent Mercker, LH Reliever
3-1 on 34:19 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 5 G with 51 H, 10 HR, and a 5.98 ERA.

Mercker hit the DL at the end of June after a batted ball split the webbing next to his left index finger. Considering the pain we feel just thinking about that injury, simultaneously breaking a metacarpal bone in his hand could have kept him out for much of the year. Instead he returned at the end of July and completely dissolved, posting an 8.64 ERA on 10:8 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 23 G with 27 H and 8 HR. To appropriately contrast his frighteningly disparate season, he managed a 4.12 ERA on 24:11 K:BB in 24 IP over 32 G with 24 H and 2 HR before the injury. Since his recent track record shows zero success, deal or cut him to avoid any more qualitative damage.

August Overachiever: Jose Jimenez, RH Closer
Old stats: 34 Saves on 38:9 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 61 G with 63 H, 7 HR, and a 3.92 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 6 Saves on 7:1 K:BB in 11 IP over 10 G with 8 H, 0 HR, and a .82 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Jennings, RH Starter; May: Denny Stark, RH Starter; June: Dennys Reyes, LH Reliever; July: Justin Speier, RH Reliever.

Florida: Armando Almanza, LH Reliever
3-2 on 56:23 K:BB in 44.2 IP over 50 G with 33 H, 8 HR, and a 4.43 ERA.

Aside from a 1.6 HR/9 that unfortunately looks correct given his .64 G-F, Almanza's other solid skills have allowed him to assemble the most impressive year of his career. While his yearly statistics actually look very similar to each of his other two full seasons, both an 11.3 K/9 and a 4.6 BB/9 are easily career-bests. A 6.6 H/9 is also a new low, and he's averaging almost an inning per outing for the first time since his 1999 debut. He likely won't accumulate enough innings or strikeouts to risk running all year considering the homer risk, but you can safely wait if you've already owned him for a while.

August Overachiever: Graeme Lloyd, LH Reliever
Old stats: 3-4 and 5 Saves on 32:13 K:BB in 48.1 IP over 57 G with 55 H, 5 HR, and a 4.47 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 and 0 Saves on 5:4 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 8 G with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 9.39 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter; May: Hansel Izquierdo, RH Swingman; June: Michael Tejera, LH Swingman; July: Carl Pavano, RH Reliever.

Houston: Pete Munro, RH Swingman
5-5 on 44:23 K:BB in 79.2 IP over 14 GS(18G) with 89 H, 5 HR, and a 3.62 ERA.

I advocated his call-up back in May as the most prepared of Houston's minor league starters, and now he's finally fulfilling some of the promise that Boston expected from him when they dealt Mike Stanley to Toronto to acquire Munro and Jay Yennaco. He's not displaying much dominance, nor did we expect him to post an impressive strikeout rate, although a 2.6 BB/9 is quite good and a .6 HR/9 really helps keep his ERA down. A 1.64 G-F supports that last number even in Minute Maid Park, but a PQS breakdown illustrates his problems: 4 dominant starts and 6 disasters in his 14 starts. He's also only holding a current 5-game log of 10400, suggesting you should probably deal or cut him as we don't expect him to provide much fantasy help in the near future.

August Overachiever: Roy Oswalt, RH Starter
Old stats: 17-6 on 171:49 K:BB in 195 IP over 28 GS(29G) with 178 H, 16 HR, and a 2.91 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 25:8 K:BB in 27 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 0 HR, and a 3.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter; May: Ricky Stone, RH Reliever; June: Kirk Saarloos, RH Starter; July: Octavio Dotel, RH Reliever.

Los Angeles: Kevin Beirne, RH Swingman
1-0 on 14:14 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 11 G(2GS) with 22 H, 3 HR, and a 3.47 ERA.

The season-ending injuries to Ishii and Brown forced Beirne into the rotation, and he's at least maintained a decent ERA in spite of pitching rather poorly. A 1.0 K:BB is simply unacceptable at any level, and while a 1.00 G-F, 1.2 HR/9, and 8.5 H/9 aren't too poor, his 5.4 K/9 doesn't point to any future dominance. Beirne's not a terrible pitcher to use as roster filler, but the Dodgers obviously won't succeed by relying upon his talents, and you should also deal or cut him.

August Overachiever: Jesse Orosco, LH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 19:11 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 45 G with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 3.09 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 3:1 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 10 G with 2 H, 1 HR, and a 2.70 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Daal, LH Swingman; May: Eric Gagne, RH Closer; June: Kazuhisa Ishii, LH Starter; July: Odalis Perez, LH Starter.

Milwaukee: Ray King, LH Reliever
3-2 on 50:23 K:BB in 64.1 IP over 75 G with 61 H, 5 HR, and a 3.08 ERA.

The development of an effective late-inning relief corps that includes the relatively young and therefore inexpensive Luis Vizcaino, Jayson Durocher, and King should rank as one their most important accomplishments of the year. Closer Mike DeJean and Valerio de los Santos also pitched fairly well, and if Milwaukee can find two capable starters to add to Sheets, Rusch, and Neugebauer, they could field a potentially decent pitching staff. The Brewers used King as their primary lefty over the last two years, and since he holds a respectable .736 OOPS against righties while dominating lefties, we'd like to see him used in a traditional setup role. He's certainly helped many roto teams this year with qualitatively useful innings and no weak skills, making him a solid candidate to acquire for both the 2002 and 2003 seasons.

August Overachiever: Mike Buddie, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 28:21 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 25 G with 46 H, 5 HR, and a 4.54 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: No stats since he's been in the minors for Montreal.

Previous Overachievers: April: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever; May: Mike DeJean, RH Closer-for-Now; June: Valerio de los Santos, LH Reliever; July: Jayson Durocher, RH Reliever.

Montreal: Masato Yoshii, RH Swingman
4-9 on 74:32 K:BB in 131.1 IP over 20 GS(31G) with 143 H, 15 HR, and a 4.11 ERA.

Before losing his rotation spot after a 2202 PQS string, he compiled an amazingly consistent 33333334434 over the middle of the season. Unfortunately he just didn't win despite the second best run support of any Montreal starter, though at least his 2.3 K:BB, 1.0 HR/9, and 1.51 G-F indicate that Yoshii can still pitch in the majors. However he'll turn 38 in April, and I don't expect him to find much success in his remaining time in the U.S., so you need to deal or cut him now.

August Overachiever: Dan Smith, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 19:15 K:BB in 32 IP over 21 G with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 2.25 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 14:5 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 11 G with 11 H, 2 HR, and a 4.61 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever; May: Matt Herges, RH Short Reliever; June: Tomokazu Ohka, RH Starter; July: Joey Eischen, LH Reliever.

New York Mets: Armando Benitez, RH Closer
33 Saves on 79:25 K:BB in 66.1 IP over 61 G with 46 H, 8 HR, and a 2.31 ERA.

He's compiled one the most quietly successful seasons of any closer, especially considering his excellent qualitative stats, but New York still might deal him and allow Strickland, Weathers, or one of their many starting prospects to close. Perhaps he's not quite dominating hitters as he did in past years, but a 3.4 BB/9 certainly ranks as his best control mark, and his 3.2 K:BB indicates he's now displaying the best command of his career. Benitez turns 30 in November, and aside from his persistent flyball tendency, he ranks with the elite closers in baseball. Considering his overall numbers this year and the decent possibility of Mets' improvement under new management, Benitez could be a great sleeper to acquire.

August Overachiever: Dave Weathers, RH Reliever
Old stats: 5-3 on 50:31 K:BB in 64 IP over 60 G with 61 H, 6 HR, and a 3.23 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 9:2 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 9 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever; May: Steve Trachsel, RH Starter; June: Mark Guthrie, LH Reliever; July: Pedro Astacio, RH Starter.

Philadelphia: Joe Roa, RH Starter
4-4 on 32:12 K:BB in 67.1 IP over 10 GS(13G) with 68 H, 11 HR, and a 3.88 ERA.

After struggling in his debut, Roa's compiled a remarkably consistent PQS log of 434344343. He'll never dominate with only a 4.3 K/9, but his outstanding 1.6 BB/9 could enable him to approach his current success in the following years. Neither his .95 G-F nor a 1.5 HR/9 is particularly troublesome, and since he should enter Spring Training as the favorite for Philly's 5th starter slot, you should see if you can acqire him inexpensively now.

August Overachiever: Mike Timlin, RH Reliever
Old stats: 4-4 on 45:9 K:BB in 78.1 IP over 58 G with 61 H, 13 HR, and a 2.53 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 3:4 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 11 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 5.40 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever; May: Vicente Padilla, RH Starter; June: Carlos Silva, RH Reliever; July: Jose Mesa, RH Closer.

Pittsburgh: Mike Lincoln, RH Reliever
2-4 on 48:27 K:BB in 70.2 IP over 53 G with 78 H, 7 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.

Lincoln compiled a .54 ERA on a 13:5 K:BB in 16.2 IP with 16 H and 0 HR before Pittsburgh unfairly demoted him on May 6th since he was the only reliever with an option. He's obviously struggled in his two return trips, only managing a 35:22 K:BB in 54 IP with 62 H and 7 HR. We like the 27-year-old's potential in middle relief, especially since his skills are so much better than what he posted when he compiled a 7.70 ERA in 97 IP with the Twins during the first two seasons of his career. A 1.83 G-F suggests he might even improve upon his .9 HR/9, making him a respectable target to acquire in Dollar Days in next year's draft.

August Overachiever: Mike Williams, RH Closer
Old stats: 38 Saves on 36:17 K:BB in 52.2 IP over 50 G with 47 H, 5 HR, and a 2.56 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 6 Saves on 5:4 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 7 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 6.75 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever; May: Kip Wells, RH Starter; June: Mike Fetters, RH Reliever; July: Josh Fogg, RH Starter.

San Diego: Clay Condrey, RH Swingman
1-2 on 15:7 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 8 G(3GS) with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 1.71 ERA.

In the past four years of pitching strictly in relief for San Diego, he compiled a 4.23 ERA on a 191:86 K:BB in 236 IP with 236 H and 21 HR; he reached AAA in 2001 to post a 4.75 ERA on 45:13 K:BB in 53 IP with 63 H and 7 HR. San Diego converted him to starting this season at AAA Portland, and he managed a 10-4 record on 73:40 K:BB in 133.2 IP over 23 GS(25G) with 128 H, 12 HR, and a 3.50 ERA. Since his late August promotion, Condrey's quickly established himself as a reliable long reliever, and he's even holding a 353 PQS log in his three starts. His dominance is a little weak, but all of his other skills, including a 1.34 G-F, suggest he'll remain a quality member of the Padres' staff in 2003. Consider looking to acquire him inexpensively given his double-digit upside as a starter.

August Overachiever: Mike Holtz, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-1 on 22:24 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 41 G with 35 H, 5 HR, and a 4.41 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 4:6 K:BB in 1.2 IP over 6 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 27.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever; May: Brett Tomko, RH Starter; June: Oliver Perez, LH Starter; July: Jake Peavy, RH Starter.

San Francisco: Scott Eyre, LH Reliever
2-4 on 58:36 K:BB in 74.1 IP over 69 G with 80 H, 4 HR, and a 4.48 ERA.

Toronto inexplicably started him at the beginning of the year, and while he showed some promise skill-wise in the rotation, he also allowed more than an earned run an inning. He's obviously pitched much better in relief, but his command problems simply leave him too risky to own. At least his 1.36 G-F is sufficiently better than his .95 norm, although with only his dominance and homer rate at acceptable levels, you should deal or cut Eyre rather than risk the probably pending qualitative damage.

August Overachiever: Tim Worrell, RH Reliever
Old stats: 8-1 on 47:18 K:BB in 61.1 IP over 67 G with 47 H, 2 HR, and a 2.35 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 8:11 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 11 G with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 1.93 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter; May: Chad Zerbe, LH Reliever; June: Jay Witasick, RH Reliever; July: Ryan Jensen, RH Starter.

St. Louis: Rick White, RH Reliever
5-6 on 40:21 K:BB in 60 IP over 58 G with 61 H, 4 HR, and a 4.35 ERA.

Colorado released him on August 12th, he signed with St. Louis on the 17th, and then he received a promotion on the 24th. He quickly emerged as their primary setup man given Veres' inconsistency and the need for Crudale in the middle innings. White's never even posted an ERA above 4.75, and since emerging as a quality reliever in 1999 with Tampa Bay, he's displayed a mix of solid skills and mostly acceptable skills in succeeding seasons. Now he's pitching quite well for a pennant contender, making him a good candidate to acquire, especially as he's already vultured three wins in the past month.

August Overachiever: Matt Morris, RH Starter
Old stats: 15-7 on 157:58 K:BB in 188.2 IP over 28 GS with 181 H, 14 HR, and a 3.29 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 10:5 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 3 GS with 23 H, 2 HR, and a 6.14 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Veres, RH Reliever; May: Luther Hackman, RH Reliever; June: Jason Simontacchi, RH Starter; July: Mike Matthews, LH Reliever.

Internet Challenge

We're out of buys after purchasing Vernon Wells.

SP(6)
Mike Mussina: Sun:@BAL(Stephens)
Javier Vazquez: Fri:CIN(Dessens)
Barry Zito: Sun:@TEX(Benoit)
Kerry Wood: Sun:PIT(Fogg)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@SF(Ru.Ortiz)
Eric Gagne: 3 Home games vs. San Diego.
Roy Halladay: Sun:DET(Maroth)

No starts: Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, and Morris.

Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home games vs. Colorado.
Mike Williams: 3 Road games at Chicago Cubs.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Home games vs. Chicago White Sox.
Jorge Julio: 3 Home games vs. New York Yankees.
Scott Stewart: 3 Home games vs. Cincinnati.

With today's rainout, there's a slight chance that Mussina won't go, so we'll sit him in favor of the other six. Also, while we'd like to run Kim, Stewart's pitched decently and we'd rather load our offense.

Most of our Rockies will sit, along with Hunter, Dunn, and Ward, since we're concerned about their playing time. Pierre plays instead of Ichiro since Pierre is trying for the SB title.

The Umpire Hunter(2nd lg; 12th overall)
Week 26b: September 27-September 29

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Todd Helton		1980
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1120
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Vlad Guerrero		1880
OF	Barry Bonds		1830
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	Vernon Wells		440
DH	Paul Konerko		1220
DH	Jimmy Rollins		940

SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Kerry Wood		1050
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Roy Halladay		490
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750
RP	Scott Stewart		490

Today's Fantasy Rx: The following National League pitchers could make a significant roto contribution in 2003, each potentially doubling their 2002 values:

Likely breakout starters: Randy Wolf, Ben Sheets, Glendon Rusch, Kip Wells, Wade Miller, Brandon Duckworth, Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, and Kris Benson.

Emerging young starters: Oliver Perez, Michael Tejera, Aaron Cook, Kurt Ainsworth, John Patterson, Adam Eaton, Jason Middlebrook, Juan Cruz, and Trey Hodges.

Capable closers: Matt Mantei, Mike Koplove, Mike Remlinger, Joe Borowski, Gabe White, Scott Williamson, Todd Jones, Vladimir Nunez, Blaine Neal, Ocatvio Dotel, Flash Gordon, Paul Shuey, Luis Vizcaino, Jayson Durocher, Scott Stewart, Joey Eischen, Britt Reames, Scott Strickland, Steve Reed, Brian Boehringer, Scott Sauerbeck, Al Reyes, Brandon Villafuerte, Felix Rodriguez, and Mike Crudale.