Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Jarrod Washburn, LH Starter
18-6 on 139:59 K:BB in 206 IP over 32 G with 183 H, 19 HR, and a 3.15 ERA.

Jarrod credits Subway with enabling him to emerge from a talented lefty into an 18-game winner. He probably should thank the Angels' offense and defense, since his only skill improvement occurred in HR/9, where he managed to decrease from 1.2 to .8 HR/9 despite a drop to .60 G-F from last season's .65 mark. His PQS scores also appear roughly similar as he's only dominated in 12 of his 32 starts; fortunately he's only suffered one disaster all year and that occurred in his third start of the season. I expect Washburn will approach his current qualitative numbers next year but we'd look to deal him since I don't foresee him near 20 wins in 2003.

August Overachiever: Scot Shields, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-3 on 17:13 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 20 G with 25 H, 4 HR, and a 2.94 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 2-0 on 11:6 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 8 G with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter; May: Dennis Cook, LH Reliever; June: Lou Pote, RH Reliever; July: Ben Weber, RH Setup.

Baltimore: Rick Bauer, RH Swingman
6-7 on 45:36 K:BB in 82 IP over 54 G(1GS) with 84 H, 12 HR, and a 4.06 ERA.

Bauer looked fairly impressive as a starter throughout his minor league career, but after six starts last year in which he only managed a 16:9 K:BB in 33 IP, Baltimore moved him to the bullpen for this season. He's kept his hits down and hasn't allowed too many homers, but we expected much more than just a 1.3 K:BB and 4.9 K/9. At least his 1.64 G-F indicates his homer rate should drop next year, although I don't think he can hold an ERA around 4.00 unless he begins dominating hitters. Deal Bauer for a reliever with more power and therefore hopefully more upside.

August Overachiever: Jorge Julio, RH Closer
Old stats: 25 Saves on 46:23 K:BB in 60.2 IP over 59 G with 48 H, 4 HR, and a 1.78 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 6:4 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 7 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 4.26 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Scott Erickson, RH Starter; May: Willis Roberts, RH Reliever; June: Travis Driskill, RH Starter; July: Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter.

Boston: Tim Wakefield, RH Starter
11-5 on 131:49 K:BB in 157.1 IP over 14 GS(14G) with 116 H, 14 HR, and a 2.75 ERA.

Derek Lowe, Victor Zambrano, and Wakefield are the only American League starters without a disaster in more than three starts this year. Boston should exercise his option and leave him in the rotation as the #3 starter, and he could wind up as their most valuable pitcher if Pedro doesn't stay healthy. He's on a 55543 current five-start PQS trend, and he's posting a 3.4 K:BB, 7.0 K/9, .8 HR/9, and 6.4 H/9 as a starter while holding a 1.01 G-F. If available, look to acquire one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.

August Overachiever: Ugueth Urbina, RH Closer
Old stats: 30 Saves on 50:18 K:BB in 47 IP over 48 G with 39 H, 6 HR, and a 3.45 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 8 Saves on 17:2 K:BB in 11 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 2 HR, and a 3.27 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Oliver, LH Starter; May: Rolando Arrojo, RH Swingman; June: Derek Lowe, RH Starter; July: Pedro Martinez, RH Starter.

Chicago White Sox: Rocky Biddle, RH Swingman
2-4 on 62:37 K:BB in 72.2 IP over 43 G(6GS) with 66 H, 13 HR, and a 4.21 ERA.

Biddle's ERA seems much too low considering his skill deficiencies. A 7.7 K/9 is nice although he needs to fix his 4.6 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9, but the latter seems possible given his 1.60 G-F. Since his recent move to the rotation, he's posted a PQS log of 000333, suggesting he's a decent short-term solution but isn't someone the Sox should want starting. The entire Chicago pitching staff save for Buehrle, Wright, and Marte seems questionable for next year, so deal or cut Biddle for one of the many relievers with more immediate promise.

August Overachiever: Dan Wright, RH Starter
Old stats: 9-11 on 107:59 K:BB in 155 IP over 27 GS with 170 H, 27 HR, and a 5.69 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or reserve.
Stats since recommendation: 4-1 on 23:9 K:BB in 34 IP over 5 GS with 27 H, 5 HR, and a 2.91 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Gary Glover, RH Setup; May: Bobby Howry, RH Reliever; June: Mark Buehrle, LH Starter; July: Damaso Marte, LH Setup.

Cleveland: Ricardo Rodriguez, LH Starter
2-2 on 20:15 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 6 GS with 36 H, 5 HR, and a 5.86 ERA.

In 6 AA starts, he only managed a 21:12 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 39 H and 2 HR, not numbers indicative of a prospect overly ready for the majors. At least he's already 24 so we don't have to worry too much about overwork, but ideally you'd like him to spend two more months in the minors. Since his promotion, he's posted a PQS log of 240330; these marks aren't bad even if there's nothing spectacular about them. While he's a solid long-term prospect, most teams should look to deal him for a more experienced pitcher.

August Overachiever: Jake Westbrook, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-3 on 20:12 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 4 GS(11G) with 50 H, 6 HR, and a 5.83 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: No stats since he's on the DL with a bone bruise on his right elbow.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Shuey, RH Relief; May: Bartolo Colon, RH Starter; June: Ryan Drese, RH Starter; July: Mark Wohlers, RH Short Reliever.

Detroit: Jamie Walker, LH Reliever
1-1 on 38:9 K:BB in 42 IP over 54 G with 30 H, 9 HR, and a 3.86 ERA.

He's barely pitched 100 innings in the majors despite turning 31 in July, but aside from a 1.9 HR/9 based on a .77 G-F, his other skills look solid. A 4.2 K:BB, 8.1 K/9, and 6.4 H/9 indicate a quality reliever who deserves a longer look. However he's unlikely to see many save opps since he's a 31-year-old lefty, and with the Tigers' offense also unable to contribute chances for vulture wins, his value is limited to qualitative categories. You can wait if you own him this year, although I wouldn't roster him in 2003 due to the homer problems.

August Overachiever: Oscar Henriquez, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 21:12 K:BB in 24 IP over 26 G with 16 H, 3 HR, and a 3.38 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 2:3 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G with 3 H, 2 HR, and an 11.25 ERA before right elbow surgery.

Previous Overachievers: April: Steve Sparks, RH Starter; May: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer; June: Mike Maroth, LH Starter; July: Julio Santana, RH Reliever.

Kansas City: Shawn Sedlacek, RH Starter
3-5 on 49:35 K:BB in 81.1 IP over 14 GS(15G) with 95 H, 15 HR, and a 6.75 ERA.

In 2001 he proved that he was ready for a full year of AAA but then KC promoted him after a 3.70 ERA on an admittedly impressive 66:15 K:BB in 80.1 IP over 11 GS with 67 H and 6 HR. So instead of dominating for the rest of the year at AAA, he's performed terribly in the majors, displaying weak dominance and questionable control. A 1.02 G-F doesn't give much hope for a decrease in his 1.7 HR/9, however at least he's only suffered disasters in 3 of his 14 starts. You still should deal or cut him due to his poor command even if he might be a decent option by the second half of next season.

August Overachiever: Runelvys Hernandez, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-3 on 30:14 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 7 GS with 42 H, 4 HR, and a 3.98 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 14:8 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 4 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 5.06 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Byrd, RH Starter; May: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter; June: Miguel Ascencio, RH Swingman; July: Scott Mullen, LH Reliever.

Minnesota: Bob Wells, RH Reliever
1-1 on 30:16 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 46 G with 76 H, 8 HR, and a 6.18 ERA.

While Minnesota owns the second best bullpen in AL, Wells barely deserves a roster spot given his atrocious year, and they better not keep him for the playoffs instead of Kyle Lohse. He's actually posting a career-best .97 G-F which supports his 1.3 HR/9, but the problems here are a terrible 12.4 hit rate and weak 4.9 strikeout rate. Wells turns 36 on November 1st, and while Minnesota's league average defense probably isn't providing much help, his low dominance doesn't indicate much potential improvement. Deal or cut him now, and expect him to find a Spring Training invitation at best next year.

August Overachiever: Eddie Guardado, LH Closer
Old stats: 38 Saves on 59:13 K:BB in 58.1 IP over 58 G with 45 H, 6 HR, and a 2.62 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 5 Saves on 9:2 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 7 G with 7 H, 2 HR, and a 5.68 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: J.C. Romero, LH Reliever; May: Mike Jackson, RH Aging Former Closer; June: LaTroy Hawkins, RH Reliever; July: Tony Fiore, RH Reliever.

New York Yankees: Steve Karsay, RH Short Reliever
6-14 and 12 Saves on 63:30 K:BB in 86.1 IP over 76 G with 84 H, 7 HR, and a 3.13 ERA.

Unlike nearly all other columnists, we liked the Karsay signing because there was no reason New York shouldn't sign the top available setup man. While I'm concerned about his 6.6 K/9, his lowest strrikeout rate since moving to the bullpen in 1999, his other ratios, including a solid 2.19 G-F, suggest he can coast at this current level for a few years. The 30-year-old should remain the Yankees' primary closer backup and solid short reliever, making him a quality pitcher to acquire in nearly any league.

August Overachiever: Ramiro Mendoza, RH Reliever
Old stats: 8-3 and 4 Saves on 53:15 K:BB in 79 IP over 52 G with 85 H, 7 HR, and a 3.08 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 and 0 Saves on 7:1 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 9 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 6.17 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter; May: Ted Lilly, LH Swingman; June: David Wells, LH Starter; July: Mike Stanton, LH Reliever.

Oakland: Mark Mulder, LH Starter
18-7 on 154:54 K:BB in 200.1 IP over 29 GS with 179 H, 21 HR, and a 3.59 ERA.

Mulder would be in the middle of the Cy race if he hadn't missed four weeks with a left forearm strain. He's dominated in just under half of his starts and hasn't suffered a disaster since just after returning from the DL. Only a 1.57 G-F troubles us at all after he averaged a 1.82 G-F during the first two years of his career. A 6.9 K:BB is the best dominance of his career, and there's little wrong with his 2.9 K:BB, .9 HR/9, or 8.0 hit rate, leaving Mulder as one of the most reliable starters in the game. Acquire him if possible to boost any rotation.

August Overachiever: Barry Zito, LH Starter
Old stats: 19-5 on 154:67 K:BB in 190.2 IP over 29 GS with 150 H, 21 HR, and a 2.83 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-0 on 22:7 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 4 GS with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 2.05 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Billy Koch, RH Closer; May: Mike Venafro, LH Reliever; June: Aaron Harang, RH Starter; July: Chad Bradford, RH Reliever.

Seattle: Joel Pineiro, RH Starter
14-7 on 130:50 K:BB in 189 IP over 27 GS(36G) with 184 H, 24 HR, and a 3.33 ERA.

Leaving Pineiro in the bullpen to start the season ranks with the dumbest moves of any manager this year, especially considering his excellence since reaching the majors for good last season. A career-best 1.24 G-F suggests his 1.1 HR/9 should drop next year, likely pushing his ERA back down under 3.00. While his 6.2 K/9 also isn't particularly strong, a 2.6 K:BB and 8.8 H/9 are fine marks for any starter. However, if the Mariners lose Edgar and Olerud, Pineiro might not even reach double-digit wins next year, but if their offense remains intact, he's a great target to acquire.

August Overachiever: Doug Creek, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-2 on 49:25 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 41 G with 49 H, 9 HR, and a 5.92 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 7:7 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 8 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever; May: Kazuhiro Sasaki, RH Closer; June: John Halama, LH Swingman; July: Jamie Moyer, LH Starter.

Tampa Bay: Wilson Alvarez, LH Swingman
2-2 on 55:35 K:BB in 74.1 IP over 22 G(10G) with 78 H, 13 HR, and a 4.96 ERA.

The pending free agent is finally fulfilling Tampa's expectations of him after they signed him to a five-year contract for $35M prior to their first season. Alvarez might emerge as a quality lefty next year after managing a 2.63 ERA on 24:11 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 12 G with 23 H and 3 HR allowed. Most teams would be happy to sign a lefty long reliever with those numbers, and considering the 32-year-old suffered disasters in six of his ten starts, his new team should keep him in the bullpen. A career-worst .54 G-F worries me, but you can wait if you're still own him, though check his 2003 role before investing.

August Overachiever: Jorge Sosa, RH Rule 5 Pick
Old stats: 1-6 on 41:45 K:BB in 83.2 IP over 26 G(12GS) with 72 H, 16 HR, and a 5.44 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 6:9 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 4 G(2GS) with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 7.11 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Wilson, RH Starter; May: Steve Kent, LH Reliever; June: Travis Harper, RH Swingman; July: Joe Kennedy, LH Starter.

Texas: Jay Powell, RH Reliever
3-2 on 32:22 K:BB in 47.1 IP over 48 G with 46 H, 5 HR, and a 3.61 ERA.

While I find his overall ERA rather low given these skills, he's managed 1.98 ERA on 22:11 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 25 H with 21 H and 3 HR since the trade deadline. He'll return as Texas' top setup guy next year and could excel considering many of his problems this year appear due to missing the first ten weeks of the season with a torn tendon sheath in his right middle finger. Powell's holding a solid 2.08 G-F, and aside from his weak command, he should rebound in 2003. If Francisco Cordero's past injury troubles recur, Powell should wind up closing, making him a decent target to acquire, either now or in Dollar Days.

August Overachiever: Danny Kolb, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-2 and 1 Saves on 12:12 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 19 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and 2.55 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-3 and 0 Saves on 7:8 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 12 G with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 5.84 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Rogers, LH Starter; May: Ismael Valdes, RH Starter; June: Hideki Irabu, RH Reliever; July: Francisco Cordero, RH Reliever.

Toronto: Brian Bowles, RH Reliever
2-1 on 19:14 K:BB in 19 IP over 16 G with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 4.26 ERA.

He appeared almost ready for the majors after a 2001 AAA season in which he posted a 2.91 ERA on an 81:44 K:BB in 77.1 IP with 56 H and 3 HR. Unfortunately he exacerbated his command problems this year, compiling a 3.36 ERA on 53:32 K:BB in 59 IP with 46 H and 4 HR. Given those stats, a .81 major league G-F also surprises me, and since his control problems have worsened since his call-up, Toronto needs to send him back to AAA for a third year. He turned 26 in August and also might be running low on options. However losing him wouldn't be overly disastrous, and he doesn't deserve a big league bullpen job right now. Deal or cut him before he ruins your qualitative stats.

August Overachiever: Felix Heredia, LH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 28:24 K:BB in 47 IP over 46 G with 47 H, 5 HR, and a 4.02 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 3:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 7 G with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Thurman, RH Reliever; May: Pete Walker, RH Swingman; June: Scott Cassidy, RH Reliever; July: Roy Halladay, RH Starter.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The following American League pitchers could make a significant roto contribution in 2003, each potentially doubling their 2002 values:

Likely breakout starters: Jeff Weaver, Mark Redman, C.C Sabathia, Danny Wright, Tim Wakefield, Andy Pettitte, Jason Johnson, Kyle Lohse, and Johan Santana.

Emerging young starters: Mike Maroth, John Stephens, John Lackey, Ted Lilly, Casey Fossum, Aaron Harang, Runelvys Hernandez, Ryan Franklin, Rafael Soriano, and Victor Zambrano.

Capable closers: Brendan Donnelly, Francisco Rodriguez, Alan Embree, Damaso Marte, Antonio Osuna, David Elder, Franklyn German, Matt Anderson, LaTroy Hawkins, J.C. Romero, Steve Karsay, Chad Bradford, Ricardo Rincon, Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Nelson, Lance Carter, Travis Harper, and Cliff Politte