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September 23rd 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.
Anaheim: Shawn Wooten, 1B/DH
For a quick comparison, here's his line from 2001: His #P/PA increased from 3.69 to 3.84, but so did his G-F ratio, jumping from .67 to .94 G-F. The one shining improvement is the plate discipline improvement from .12 to .25 BB:K. However Wooten's major problem remains playing time, and with the Angels unlikely to give him another extended shot at catching, his value's limited as the right-handed platoon partner for a Spiezio or Fullmer. You can wait if you need the short-term power boost now, but Anaheim doesn't appear willing to make room for his power potential.
August Overachiever: David Eckstein, SS Previous Overachievers: April: Garrett Anderson, OF; May: Orlando Palmeiro, OF; June: Jose Nieves, IF; July: Adam Kennedy, 2B.
Conine's already 36, so he should continue to see less at-bats each year due to age and Baltimore's need to play their youngsters. Since he's held his G-F ratio very close to his .93 career average in almost every year of the last decade, we shouldn't expect any last power surge. The steals are a nice bonus, but he's also lost a lot of ground in plate discipline after posting a .85 BB:K and .12 walk rate in 2001. Look for him late in the draft as someone likely to earn double-digit value, although feel free to deal him if you can grab any comparable player with some upside.
August Overachiever: Jay Gibbons, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Marty Cordova, OF/DH; May: Geronimo Gil, C; June: Melvin Mora, UT; July: Gary Matthews, Jr., OF.
Sanchez hasn't shown any meaningful skill improvement since reaching the majors, always keeping his OPS between .626 and .699 aside from a .525 in 1996. He's almost 35 and his speed appears gone, but he's also holding a .91 contact rate. However he's almost reached a .50 BB:K for only the second time since leaving the Cubs in 1997, and he should continue to contribute a helpful BA as long as he remains a regular. Unfortunately since he's not guaranteed to start anywhere next year and more teams look for offense over defense, his value will still drop, so look to deal him whenever someone needs BA.
August Overachiever: Nomar Garciaparra, SS Previous Overachievers: April: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B; May: Brian Daubach, 1B/OF/DH; June: Carlos Baerga, IF; July: Jason Varitek, C.
He's somehow stayed in the lineup almost all the time and remained productive despite regularly shifting positions. Now he'll likely return to shortstop next year, another shining example of Kenny Williams wasting two years of several prospects' primes while also disbanding the pre-existing pitching surplus. Unfortunately, Valentin's skills now are also at their lowest point in five years. A .76 G-F is his worst level since his rookie year, and he's only showed more impatience than his current .09 walk rate in 1997. His .41 BB:K is also his worst mark since 1997, so I'll be surprised if he can maintain an OPS close to .800 next year. Look to deal Valentin since even steady quantitative production won't adequately compensate for the potential BA drag.
August Overachiever: Aaron Rowand, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Lofton, OF; May: Tony Graffanino, IF; June: Paul Konerko, 1B; July: Sandy Alomar, Jr., C.
Garcia' finally taking advantage of a chance to start, although he could have produced near this level over the past few years if five other franchises didn't dismiss him too quickly. He's driving in runners at a rate comparable to any power hitter in the majors since his early August recall, and his low OBP isn't a problem for an Indians' lineup suddenly largely devoid of experienced hitting talent. Obviously neither his .11 BB:K nor a .02 walk rate suggest he'll maintain a .300 BA, and unfortunately his 1.25 G-F doesn't indicate any growth in overall power potential. Without any skill justification for this increased production, we can't expect it to continue into next season, so even if he might emerge as the 2003 version of Raul Ibanez, you might help your team more if you deal him now.
August Overachiever: Ellis Burks, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Vizquel; May: Matt Lawton, OF; June: John McDonald, IF; July: Jim Thome, 1B.
I fail to understand why he's remained in the lineup considering the Tigers' pressing need to play prospects, but most Detroit prospects also aren't truly ready for the majors. While Halter's at least holding a .10 walk rate for the first time in his career, his G-F ratio is up to 1.21 from a 1.07 last year, and a career-best 3.81 #P/PA is only slightly above his 3.76 norm. His BA seems low considering he's maintaining a .78 contact rate as in past years, although considering he's almost 33, I don't expect him to repeat that .811 OPS from 2001 if kept in a semi-regular role. Deal him now, as the influx of lineup alternatives will continue lowering his trade value.
August Overachiever: Brandon Inge Previous Overachievers: April: Randall Simon, 1B/DH; May: Wendell Magee, OF; June: Ramon Santiago, SS; July: George Lombard, OF.
His reportedly "joking" refusal to enter the middle of the game should insure he moves elsewhere in the off-season, although I can't imagine many teams wanting an offensively worthless middle infielder with ridiculously inflated salary expectations. Perez will turn 30 next June, and no team, regardless of their desperation for defensive improvement, can afford to start someone who might not improve on a .561 OPS. Tony Pena should have benched Perez in favor of practically anyone when he took to the Royals' job, and with most of Perez's skills declining, you should also deal or cut him at your first opportunity.
August Overachiever: Carlos Beltran, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Randa, 3B; May: Michael Tucker, OF; June: A.J. Hinch, C; July: Raul Ibanez, DH.
He's maintaining a decent slugging percentage despite very sporadic playing time, although since he posted a 1.021 OPS in 174 AAA at-bats this year, he certainly deserves to remain in the majors. We'll be shocked if both Mientkiewicz and David Ortiz stay in Minnesota next year considering that Todd Sears and LeCroy both appear ready to start in the majors. LeCroy's primary weakness remains plate discipline, and both his .31 BB:K and .06 walk rate suggest he needs to improve his patience. At least his .84 G-F continues to depict a potentially impressive power hitter, so look to acquire LeCroy for both the short-term power boost as the Twins rest their starters and as a intriguing 2003 keeper.
August Overachiever: Dustan Mohr, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Torii Hunter; May: Jacque Jones, OF; June: A.J. Pierzynski, C; July: Bobby Kielty, OF.
Wilson's play as an emergency sub in right field caused Steinbrenner to rapidly complete a trade for Mondesi. Unfortunately his abhorrent flailing at the plate causes me to wonder how he's stayed in the majors. We really liked Wilson's upside back when Pittsburgh acquired from Cleveland, but he's shown no offensive talent since the Yankees added him last year. He's already 29 and unlikely to develop his stagnant skills, and his disappearing plate discipline leaves him practically useless in roto. I'm somewhat intrigued by his career-best marks of 3.98 #P/PA and .92 G-F, suggesting he might emerge as a decent infield power option in a year or two, although contenders need to deal or cut him now.
August Overachiever: Derek Jeter, SS Previous Overachievers: April: Alfonso Soriano, 2B; May: Robin Ventura, 3B; June: Ron Coomer, IF; July: Jorge Posada, C.
He's never displayed much plate discipline despite the significant power potential we expect of someone with a .94 G-F, continuing a four-year drop of his G-F ratio. However he'll turn 32 in October and might not return to the A's if Adam Piatt can display competence as a first baseman; Jason Grabowski could also platoon with Saenz, and he's an ideal 25th man considering he can play most positions, including catcher. Olmedo also hasn't plated in almost three weeks due to a strained left middle finger, so contenders should deal or reserve him even as some teams might keep him rostered in the hope he can find a regular role next year.
August Overachiever: Mark Ellis, SS Previous Overachievers: April: Jeremy Giambi, OF; May: Scott Hatteberg, UT; June: Miguel Tejada; July: John Mabry, OF.
Sierra's numbers looks somewhat similar to his 2001 comeback performance, however he's exchanged almost half his homer production for increased plate discipline. His 1.39 G-F is noticeably higher than the .96 he managed in Texas last year, so his lower statistical output isn't overly surprising. He's also turning 37 in October, but since he'll retain some value as long as he plays at this level, you can comfortably wait for his performance for the rest of the season.
August Overachiever: John Olerud, 1B Previous Overachievers: April: Carlos Guillen, SS; May: Mark McLemore, UT; June: Dan Wilson, C; July: Ichiro Suzuki, OF.
Unlike the several organizations who employed Rule 5 picks in a limited capacity, Tampa Bay kept Steve Kent and Escalona active all year while only briefly DLing Jorge Sosa for an actual injury, as opposed to the strained gluteus (from bench-warming) used to reserve most Rule 5 picks. Apparently Tampa believes that Escalona will develop into a capable starting shortstop, but despite weak plate discipline in the minors, he posted a .465 SLG at A Lexington for Houston last year. Of course he's 23, so this wasted year of development might sufficiently hinder his progress. Neither his 3.44 #P/PA or 1.45 G-F is indicative of much future success, and considering he should spend all of next year starting in the minors, likely at AA, you can safely deal or cut him now.
August Overachiever: Jared Sandberg, 3B Previous Overachievers: April: Randy Winn, OF; May: John Flaherty, C; June: Aubrey Huff, DH/UT; July: Chris Gomez, SS.
I realize I've now discussed eighteen offensive players in the Texas organization without covering ARod, but realistically, either you've owned him from the start, overpayed in trade for him, or won't see him on your roster this year, making him perhaps the one player that doesn't require analysis. Palmeiro should reach 500 homers next May, making him the first player to reach that milestone who no one guarantees will make the Hall of Fame. This season he's setting career-highs with a .19 walk rate, 4.01 #P/PA, and astounding .48 G-F. He may turn 38 tomorrow and require the services of a certain blue pill he endorses, but he remains an incredibly potent power threat and an asset to any lineup. While he'll slump eventually, he currently shows no sign of statistical slump, making him someone any roto team would be lucky to acquire.
August Overachiever: Ruben Rivera, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Hank Blalock, 3B; May: Herb Perry, 3B; June: Kevin Mench, OF; July: Mike Lamb, 3B.
Toronto's usage of Berg as a regular for most of the season ranks as one of the more startling developments of the year, especially since nothing in either his stats or skills indicates he deserves that expanded role. He's even displayed less patience and power potential than in past seasons as a reserve, and given his .699 OPS, I certainly hope the Blue Jays move in a different direction next year. Deal or cut Berg, who won't add much quantitative help and could hurt you qualitatively.
August Overachiever: Orlando Hudson, 2B Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Hinske, 3B; May: Tom Wilson, C; June: Chris Woodward, IF; July: Josh Phelps, DH.
Catchers: Josh Bard, Mike Rivera, Javier Valentin, Ramon Hernandez, Ben Davis, Toby Hall, Infielders: Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, Tony Clark, Joe Crede, Willis Harris, D'Angelo Jimenez, Brandon Phillips, Earl Snyder, Damion Easley, Omar Infante, Eric Munson, Carlos Pena, Ramon Santiago, Carlos Febles, Kit Pellow, Matt LeCroy, Luis Rivas, Todd Sears, Nick Johnson, Mark Ellis, Jose Flores, Willie Bloomquist, Jeff Cirillo, Steve Cox, Jared Sandberg, Hank Blalock, Travis Hafner, Jason Hart, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, and Josh Phelps Outfielders: Chris Richard, Joe Borchard, Jeff Liefer, Milton Bradley, Ben Broussard, Chris Magruder, Craig Monroe, Andres Torres, Brandon Berger, Dee Brown, Mike Cuddyer, Mike Restovich, Juan Rivera, Adam Piatt, Carl Crawford, Kevin Mench, and Jayson Werth. The most likely breakout players from each group are catchers Mike Rivera and Toby Hall; infielders Joe Crede, D'Angelo Jimenez, and Carlos Pena; and outfielders Milton Bradley, Mike Cuddyer, and Carl Crawford. Each of these players is either sufficiently prepared for a regular starting role or ready to see their stats leap forward.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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