Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: John Lackey, RH Starter
8-3 on 60:30 K:BB in 98.2 IP over 16 GS with 100 H, 8 HR, and a 3.56 ERA.

The Angels should have promoted Lackey as soon as Schoeneweis struggled through April, easily the month in which he's historically found the most success. Now Lackey is an established fourth starter who should remain a consistent roto asset for many years. We're a little concerned about his relatively heavy workload in recent seasons, although he doesn't carry much more risk than the other Anaheim starters. A 1.28 G-F supports his .7 homer rate, and while he isn't dominating hitters, his also demonstrating very good control. He's definitely someone to acquire in any league.

August Underachiever: Brendan Donnelly, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 32:8 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 25 G with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 2.83 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 17:6 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 14 G with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 1.23 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Schoeneweis, LH Starter; May: Troy Percival, RH Closer; June: Aaron Sele, RH Starter; July: Kevin Appier, RH Starter.

Baltimore: Sean Douglass, RH Swingman
0-3 on 34:30 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 6 GS(12G) with 43 H, 7 HR, and a 5.95 ERA.

His 2001 MLEs included a 2.5 K:BB, 8.2 K/9, and .8 HR/9, and at AAA Rochester this season, he compiled a 4.73 ERA on 71:35 K:BB in 66.2 IP with 66 H and 4 homers. I don't see the need for him to return to AAA, and since there's also nothing wrong with his 1.20 G-F, he deserves an extended tryout in Baltimore. Rebuilding teams should look to acquire him, as only his unacceptably high walk rate stands between him and big league success.

August Underachiever: John Stephens, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-2 on 19:3 K:BB in 23 IP over 4 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 7.04 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 27:13 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS(6 G) with 28 H, 6 HR, and a 5.23 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: B.J. Ryan, LH Specialist; May: Jason Johnson, RH Starter; June: Sidney Ponson, RH Starter; July: Buddy Groom, LH Reliever.

Boston: Dustin Hermanson, RH Swingman
1-1 on 11:6 K:BB in 20 IP over 10 G(1GS) with 33 H, 2 HR, and a 7.65 ERA.

A strained right groin kept him out for almost two-thirds of this season, and then he returned to the DL for another month after contracting a staph infection in a cut on his left elbow which he sustained after slipping while washing dishes barefoot. His .90 G-F at least is in line with his historical marks, but otherwise his year appears mostly wasted. I can't imagine Boston will pick up his $7.5M option, leaving Hermanson as both a risk for this year and questionable for 2003, so deal or cut him if already rostered.

August Underachiever: Casey Fossum, LH Starter
Old stats: 2-2 on 55:19 K:BB in 68.2 IP over 4 GS(35G) with 71 H, 7 HR, and a 3.15 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 37:8 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 5 GS with 28 H, 2 HR, and a 3.71 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rich Garces, RH Setup; May: Frank Castillo, RH Starter; June: John Burkett, RH Starter; July: Sun-Woo Kim, RH Swingman.

Chicago White Sox: Matt Ginter, RH Reliever
1-0 on 36:21 K:BB in 54 IP over 32 G with 59 H, 6 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.

He didn't show much at either AAA or the majors this year, and I'm surprised that he hasn't built on his 2001 MLEs of 2.3 K:BB, 7.0 K/9, and .5 HR/9. In 103 IP in Chicago over the last three years, he's holding a 1.6 K:BB, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, and a .87 G-F while spending all 59 games in relief. I still like his long-term potential since he's only 24, but he may continue struggling until the White Sox leave him a specific role. You can wait if rebuilding, although I'd release him from any contending teams.

August Underachiever: Kelly Wunsch, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-1 on 13:14 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 38 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 4.15 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 8:4 K:BB in 5 IP over 7 G with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Antonio Osuna, RH Middle Reliever; May: Keith Foulke, RH Closer; June: Todd Ritchie, RH Starter; July: Jon Garland, RH Starter.

Cleveland: Carl Sadler, LH Reliever
1-2 on 17:9 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 18 G with 11 H, 2 HR, and a 5.17 ERA.

Sadler dominated in his first extended trial at AA this season, but Cleveland promoted him after he managed a 1.93 ERA in 18.2 AAA innings despite a questionable 13:8 K:BB. He likely needs more time in the minors though obviously could mature with the Indians given his current intriguing skills' set. While the 25-year-old might help as acceptable roster filler, contenders should deal or cut him, especially considering the poor support he'll receive from his fellow Cleveland relievers.

August Underachiever: Jerrod Riggan, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-1 on 15:12 K:BB in 22 IP over 20 G with 35 H, 3 HR, and a 6.96 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 6:6 K:BB in 10 IP over 7 G with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 9.00 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Chuck Finley, LH Starter; May: C.C. Sabathia, LH Starter; June: Bob Wickman, RH Closer; July: Danys Baez, RH Starter.

Detroit: Brian Powell, RH Starter
1-5 on 27:20 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 9 GS(11G) with 61 H, 11 HR, and a 4.72 ERA.

Powell consistently displays solid command in the minors before faltering in the majors due to a lack of dominance; a smart organization might leave him in the bullpen for a year to see if he could emerge as a quality reliever. Unfortunately his career G-F is .99, he's never allowed less hits than innings pitched in any of his four major league trials, and barely strikes out a batter every two innings. He also turns 29 in less than a month, so he doesn't quite fit with all the youngsters in Detroit. I still think he could develop into a useful contributor, but certainly deal or cut him for now.

August Underachiever: Adam Bernero, RH Swingman
Old stats: 3-7 on 51:27 K:BB in 78.1 IP over 11 GS(18G) with 95 H, 12 HR, and a 5.97 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 14:4 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 8 G with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 8.38 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Redman, LH Starter; May: Jose Paniagua, RH Reliever; June: Steve Sparks, RH Starter; July: Jeff Farnsworth, RH Rule 5 Pick.

Kansas City: Kris Wilson, RH Swingman
2-0 on 10:5 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 12 G with 29 H, 7 HR, and a 8.20 ERA.

A sore elbow left him rehabbing for the first half of the season, and then Kansas City sent him back to the minors for all of August. While in the minors this year, he compiled a fantastic 60:6 K:BB in 82.1 IP in 25 appearances spread over half the Royals' organization. He's always demonstrated excellent command but lacks the dominance likely necessary for extended major league success. I'm also concerned about the drop in his G-F ratio from 1.41 back in 2000 to 1.23 last season, and a .86 G-F in 2002. The 26-year-old deserves a full year in a AAA starting rotation to evaluate his progress, and KC hasn't previously allowed him that opportunity. So even though I suspect he'll post a couple of solid seasons at some point, you'll be able to pick him up next spring in Dollar Days and he doesn't help now, meaning you should deal or cut him.

August Underachiever: Darrell May, LH Swingman
Old stats: 3-8 on 69:40 K:BB in 94.1 IP over 16 GS(23G) with 106 H, 20 HR, and a 5.25 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 17:7 K:BB in 25 IP over 3 GS(5G) with 29 H, 5 HR, and a 6.84.

Previous Underachievers: April: Cory Bailey, RH Setup; May: Jason Grimsley, RH Setup; June: Roberto Hernandez, RH Closer; July: Jeff Suppan, RH Starter.

Minnesota: Juan Rincon, RH Swingman
0-1 on 18:7 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 7 G(3GS) with 35 H, 5 HR, and a 5.33 ERA.

He reached AAA for the first time this year, and while starting 16 of his 19 games at Edmonton, he compiled a 4.78 ERA on 75:35 K:BB in 101.2 IP with 111 H and 12 HR. Minnesota could send him back to AAA again next year to hopefully improve his dominance, but they already have six quality big league starters and a few more decent prospects rising through the minors. Since Johan Santana should move into the rotation for good next year, I'd like to see Rincon take his spot in long relief and spot starting. He won't strikeout that many batters, although he could contribute to many 2003 roto teams. However I don't expect him to see success if given a rotation spot, so deal or cut Rincon for now, and then see what role he takes next season.

August Underachiever: Joe Mays, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-4 on 21:14 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 9 GS with 61 H, 7 HR, and a 5.92 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 12:8 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 5 GS with 40 H, 5 HR, and a 4.26 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Radke, RH Starter; May: Eric Milton, LH Starter; June: Rick Reed, RH Starter; July: Kyle Lohse, RH Starter.

New York Yankees: Andy Pettitte, LH Starter
11-5 on 86:28 K:BB in 122.2 IP over 20 GS with 136 H, 6 HR, and a 3.45 ERA.

Pettitte pitched great once he returned from two months lost to left elbow tendinitis, and next year he could emerge as the unquestioned #2 starter if Roger Clemens leaves. He's not thrown a single PQS score lower than 3 since the All-Star break, and he's dominated in eight of these twelve starts, which also include his current 5-start 43445 log. We don't ever expect him to post overly impressive strikeout rates, but his overall skills suggest he could have approached fifteen wins if the Yankees hadn't given him less run support than any of their starters other than Clemens. The one glaring problem is that a 1.29 G-F continues a five-year decline without the expected increasing homer rate, and after falling from a 2.22 G-F in 1998 to a 2.08, 1.70, and 1.50 before falling below 1.30 this year, his 3.45 ERA seems artificially low. Expect his .4 HR/9 to double next year, pushing his ERA back up around 4.00, limiting me to recommending you wait on him since his perceived value may again exceed his draft value.

August Underachiever: Jeff Weaver, RH Swingman
Old stats: 7-10 on 108:43 K:BB in 167 IP over 22 GS(25G) with 163 H, 14 HR, and a 3.83 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 19:4 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 2 GS(4G) with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 2.36 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Roger Clemens, RH Hall of Fame Starter; May: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter; June: Sterling Hitchcock, LH Swingman; July: Mike Mussina, RH Starter.

Oakland: Ricardo Rincon, LH Reliever
1-4 on 45:11 K:BB in 52.1 IP over 67 G with 44 H, 4 HR, and a 3.96 ERA.

Oakland's acquisition of Rincon ranks with the best in-season moves of the year as he's posted a 2.16 ERA on 15:3 K:BB in 16.2 IP with only 8 hits allowed in 21 games. Aside from an average 1.06 G-F, all his skills look great and his ERA belongs down at the sub-3.00 level he managed the last two seasons. I'm rather surprised he doesn't own more than one win considering he pitched for the hottest April team and then joined the hottest second-half team, so hopefully he can vulture a few more wins in the future. However even with his quantitative limitations, he remains an excellent addition to any squad, so acquire him if available.

August Underachiever: Jim Mecir, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-3 on 46:23 K:BB in 57.1 IP over 49 G with 59 H, 4 HR, and a 4.55 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-0 on 4:4 K:BB in 6 IP over 6 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 1.50 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Tam, RH Setup; May: Billy Koch, RH Closer; June: Cory Lidle, RH Starter; July: Tim Hudson, RH Starter.

Seattle: Jeff Nelson, RH Reliever
3-2 on 50:23 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 37 G with 35 H, 4 HR, and a 4.10 ERA.

The 35-year-old still appears unable to stay healthy for a full season, spending another half-dozen weeks on the DL after he needed bone chips removed from his elbow. He returned at the end of June, and since the All-Star Break, he's compiled a 2.67 ERA on 35:13 K:BB in 27 IP with 18 H and 2 HR allowed, displaying better skills than he's shown in years. His problems from the first few weeks of the season continue to drag down his qualitative stats, although a career-worst .51 G-F suggests that at least his .9 homer rate is unlikely to remain this low. Fortunately he otherwise should pitch effectively through the end of the season, making him a solid target to acquire if you need a low-risk roster replacement.

August Underachiever: Ryan Franklin, RH Swingman
Old stats: 4-3 on 40:15 K:BB in 73.1 IP over 33 G(5GS) with 73 H, 12 HR, and a 4.54 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 22:6 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 5 GS(6G) with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 3.34 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Abbott, RH Starter; May: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter; June: Rafael Soriano, RH Starter; July: James Baldwin, RH Starter.

Tampa Bay: Victor Zambrano, RH Starter
6-8 on 65:61 K:BB in 102 IP over 8 GS(39G) with 108 H, 15 HR, and a 5.91 ERA.

He experienced one of the most dramatic rebounds in the league this season. After establishing himself as a high-skills setup man last year, he failed in most every bullpen role for three months before Tampa sent him back to AAA for four weeks. He moved into the rotation soon after returning and has somehow managed a 4.47 ERA in his eight starts despite poor all-around skills. The one intriguing aspect of his shift to starting is his PQS log of 525422233, which at least suggests that he might remain effective even with those usually unacceptable skills. Realistically, he belongs back in the bullpen given his dominating performance in that role over the last several years, so although you can wait on him now if you need the extra starter, his value jumps if he ever returns to the saves' mix.

August Underachiever: Travis Phelps, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-2 on 21:18 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 17 G with 17 H, 6 HR, and a 5.91 ERA.
Recommendation: wait if rebuilding.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 11:7 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 7 G with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 4.22 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever; May: Ryan Rupe, RH Starter; June: Esteban Yan, RH Closer; July: Tanyon Sturtze, RH Starter.

Texas: Joaquin Benoit, RH Starter
3-4 on 46:47 K:BB in 68.2 IP over 10 GS(14G) with 71 H, 4 HR, and a 5.11 ERA.

Benoit turned 25 in July so we don't have to worry about burnout as his innings increase, but Texas is handling him very badly. He's one of the top starting prospects in their system and yet they bizarrely recalled him for spot starts a few times earlier in the year. He probably could have joined the rotation after a respectable 2001 AAA season, although now he truly doesn't need to return to the minors; he's compiled a 17-9 record on 245:112 K:BB in 229.2 IP over 40 GS with 187 H, 22 HR, and a 3.92 ERA over the last two years. Unfortunately his awful command indicates something's wrong with the coaching he's receiving in the majors, and a .89 G-F suggests potential homer problems. I'm also concerned about his PQS trend, as he began as an acceptable 32340 before degrading to 53000 over his most recent five-start stretch. Contenders need to deal or cut him even though he could emerge as a solid dollar buy as soon as next spring.

August Underachiever: Chan Ho Park, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-6 on 74:49 K:BB in 92 IP over 17 GS with 99 H, 14 HR, and a 7.14 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 5-0 on 39:20 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 6 GS with 42 H, 3 HR, and a 2.40 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rudy Seanez, RH Reliever; May: Dave Burba, RH Starter; June: Rob Bell, RH Starter; July: Todd Van Poppel, RH Reliever.

Toronto: Mike Smith, RH Starter
0-3 on 15:20 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 6 GS(12G) with 39 H, 3 HR, and a 6.82 ERA.

John Sickels hyped Smith as a sleeper last fall and we'd hoped Smith would develop into a solid rotation option for the Blue Jays this year. Instead Smith's strikeout rate, which dropped from 9.7 at A- Queens in 2000 to 8.1 at A Charleston-West Virginia in the first half of 2001 and then 7.5 K/9 at AA Tennessee in the second half of 2002, proved an unfortunate predictor of his difficulties. Toronto bumped him to AAA Syracse since his other skills all looked good, but he's slipped to a 5.6 K/9, and a slight decline in his control left him with an unacceptable 76:43 K:BB this year. At least he's maintaining his hit and homer rates, and since he turns 25 tomorrow, he should hopefully emerge as a dependable pitcher by next year's All-Star Break. Regaining the excellent command he displayed at lower levels is all that's stopping from improving on a disastrous 000000 2002 PQS log, so while contenders need to deal or cut Smith, we'll look to draft him next spring in our AL leagues.

August Underachiever: Esteban Loiaza, RH Starter
Old stats: 5-7 on 67:27 K:BB in 103.2 IP over 18 GS with 135 H, 12 HR, and a 5.56 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 15:7 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 5 GS with 45 H, 6 HR, and a 5.45 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Luke Prokopec, RH Starter; May: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer; June: Justin Miller, RH Starter; July: Chris Carpenter, RH Starter.

Today's Fantasy Rx: When rebuilding, if you have the choice between a decent starter with poor dominance and a right-handed reliever with a great strikeout rate, pick up the reliever. Injuries can create a closer opening very quickly each spring, and we'd much rather wind up with one decent $1 closer than a couple of buck starters who might earn a five-dollar profit if we're lucky.