Today's Fantasy Rx

Our September roto prospect series concludes today with NL pitchers.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Arizona: Jeremy Ward, 24, RH Reliever
4-6 on 40:14 K:BB in 62.2 IP over 54 G with 68 H, 5 HR, and a 4.31 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

After the Diamondbacks drafted him in the second round in 1999, Ward was almost ready for the majors when Tommy John surgery caused him to miss most of 2000 and part of 2001. Now he's healthy and pitching effectively, although his dominance hasn't returned to his pre-surgery levels. He's a logical choice to replace one of the aged veterans next season, and he probably wouldn't hurt the team if used now. While I may recommend him more enthusiastically for next season, consider a minimum FAAB bid if he's promoted soon and you need roster filler with a chance at vulturing a win or two.

Previous prospects: May: Eric Knott; June: John Patterson; July: Jose Valverde; August: Bret Prinz.

Atlanta: Buddy Hernandez, 23, RH Reliever
4-0 on 81:23 K:BB in 59 IP over 40 G with 36 H, 0 HR, and a 1.22 ERA at AA Greenville(SL).

If Atlanta doesn't add him to their 40-man roster, I'll be shocked if a team like Toronto doesn't snap him up in the Rule 5 draft. Only the standard prejudice against 5'9" pitchers is keeping him below AAA, and since Atlanta could use a couple extra pitchers, they should take a look at him now. Prior to 2002, he compiled skill ratios that include a 5.4 K:BB, 14.0 K/9, .2 HR/9, and 5.8 H/9, and posting a 3.5 K:BB, 12.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 5.5 H/9 indicates he didn't have any problems at AA. He'll be a great replacement for someone like Darren Holmes and could end up closing at some point, and since the Braves don't mind promoting pitchers quickly, consider a small FAAB bid when Hernandez reaches the majors.

Previous prospects: May: Joey Dawley; June: Doug Linton; July: Trey Hodges; August: John Foster.

Chicago Cubs: Courtney Duncan, 27, RH Reliever
3-5 on 65:33 K:BB in 68.2 IP over 55 G with 71 H, 6 HR< and a 4.59 ERA at AAA Iowa(PCL).

He spent much of last season in the majors with the Cubs, and their decision to leave him in the minors while looking at Pat Mahomes and others ranks one of the most stupefying decisions of the organization this season. We felt he earned a roster spot regardless of his Spring Training performance, and now he's likely to lose his 40-man spot since Chicago isn't using him now. Duncan still suffers from control problems, although 2002 is his first extended exposure to AAA. Considering the penchant of his potential teammates for allowing inherited runners to score, you should ignore him if promoted, but we still think he'll emerge as an effective set-up man at some point.

Previous prospects: May: Mark Prior; June: Will Cunnane; July: Rick Palma; August: Francis Beltran.

Cincinnati: Lance Davis, 25, LH Starter
4-10 on 78:34 K:BB in 127.1 IP over 22 GS(23G) with 150 H, 14 HR, and a 4.03 ERA between AA Chattanooga(SL) and AAA Louisville(IL).

The Reds probably should consider converting him to relief since Cincinnati lacks quality lefties at the major league level, and he never demonstrated great command even before missing April with shoulder inflammation. While he might develop into a decent end-of-rotation starter, he likely would excel in the bullpen. I'm not sure if he'll even stay with the Reds next year, so combined with his struggles in the minors this season, ignore any promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Trever Miller; June: Luke Hudson; July: Mike Neu; August: Jose Silva.

Colorado: Jason Young, 22, RH Starter
13-9 on 150:68 K:BB in 168.1 IP over 27 GS with 158 H, 11 HR, and a 3.74 ERA between AA Carolina(SL) and AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

While he didn't pitch in 2000 due to signing in September, he needs to be protected from the Rule 5 draft anyway, and he's certainly almost ready; I'd give him a September start or two so he doesn't have the pressure of debuting in the middle of the season. Young will return to AAA next year and likely improve upon the 1.9 K:BB, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 9.8 H/9 he posted in 13 starts this season, all ratios somewhat below his potential. If his recurring knee problem doesn't prohibit off-season conditioning, hopefully he'll be able to pitch deeper into ballgames. Young's potential exceeds Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Jennings, and these two pitchers should give the Rockies a credible 1-2 punch beginning sometime next year. Like Jennings, you should probably consider acquiring Young and just benching him at home whenever possible, although until Young's slightly more established, ignore him like almost all other Colorado pitchers.

Previous prospects: May: Matt Whiteside; June: Ryan Cameron; July: Aaron Cook; August: Brian Fuentes.

Florida: Rob Henkel, 23, LH Starter
13-7 on 150:49 K:BB in 145.1 IP over 25 GS(27G) with 109 H, 10 HR, and a 3.16 ERA between A+ Jupiter(FSL) and AA Portland(EL).

He's more prepared to start in the upper levels than Nate Robertson, and Henkel deserves a spot on the 40-man roster this winter, so I'm uncertain as to why Florida didn't promote Henkel now. While he's still quite raw, he should challenge for a spot in the Marlins' rotation by the end of next season, and a start or two now likely would benefit him. If the Marlins are concerned about his workload after he only pitched about 50 innings last year and has battled shoulder problems in the past, then not promoting him makes sense. However since that organization has largely ignored workload issues with several pitchers in 2002, I'm surprised Henkel's not in the majors. He could dominate when he reaches the majors if he remains healthy, so although you should ignore him now, he's an excellent choice for Ultra drafts next spring.

Previous prospects: May: Nate Teut; June: Blaine Neal; July: Tommy Phelps; August: Toby Borland.

Houston: Tom Shearn, 25, RH Reliever
4-6 on 80:41 K:BB in 83.1 IP over 57 G with 77 H, 7 HR, and a 2.92 ERA at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

A 4.4 BB/9 indicates he's still suffering from mild control problems, but otherwise he progressed nicely in his second year out of the bullpen and first season above AA. I'm quite impressed by his overall skill set and upside, and the Astros will hopefully keep both Brad Lidge and Shearn as long relievers next year. With Miller, Oswalt, Saarloos, Carlos Hernandez, and either Tim Redding or Jeriome Robertson starting, and Wagner, Dotel, Stone, Lidge, Shearn, and perhaps Jim Mann in the bullpen, Houston will own the youngest and deepest staff of flamethrowers in the majors, with only Wagner beginning 2003 older than 28. Not many teams can continue to shed salary while improving, but the Astros' loaded minor leagues, fueled by their comfort in drafting and developing short pitchers, allows them this luxury. Shearn's command difficulties suggest that he could experience some problems in Enron, so while I'd ignore him for now, like Ricky Stone, I'll be more comfortable with Shearn after he proves himself for a month or two in the majors.

Previous prospects: May: Pete Munro; June: Kirk Saarloos; July: Jeriome Robertson; August: Brad Lidge.

Los Angeles: Robert Ellis, 31, RH Starter
9-7 on 110:37 K:BB in 172.2 IP over 28 GS(29G) with 195 H, 17 HR, and a 4.17 ERA at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

Despite his continually weak dominance, Ellis remains a starter since he's established himself as a quality veteran innings' eater for AAA rotations. Arizona used him for 17 starts last year in which he posted a 5.77 ERA, but 2001 was only Ellis' second year in the majors. Given his hit and borderline homer problems at Las Vegas, he might struggle in LA, however since he's unlikely to start, we generally don't trust soft-tossing long relievers. Anyone stuck pitching garbage time can see their ERA rise very quickly in just one bad game, so ignore Ellis for now.

Previous prospects: May: Guillermo Mota; June: Kevin Beirne; July: Jeff Williams; August: Victor Alvarez.

Milwaukee: Luis Martinez, 22, LH Swingman
8-8 on 106:65 K:BB in 109 IP over 18 GS(29G) with 114 H, 6 HR, and a 5.20 ERA at AA Huntsville(SL).

He posted a set of relatively decent skills as a starter at A+ High Desert in 2001, including a 1.9 K:BB, 9.7 K/9, 8.9 H/9, and a .7 HR/9 despite pitching in a dreadful pitchers' park. Now he's maintaining his dominance while suffering from more pronounced control problems, necessitating a move to the bullpen and a likely promotion to AAA next season. Scouts expect him to develop into a left-handed specialist, and I'm looking forward to seeing if he can emerge as Ray King's eventual replacement for the Brewers. Obviously ignore him until he demonstrates competence at AAA.

Previous prospects: May: Jayson Durocher; June: Jimmy Osting; July: Brian Mallette; August: Everett Stull.

Montreal: Tim Drew, 24, RH Starter
14-7 on 72:47 K:BB in 181 IP over 28 GS with 173 H, 11 HR, and a 3.08 ERA between AAA Buffalo(IL) and AAA Ottawa(IL).

No pitcher with a 3.6 K/9 should remain starting, but his other skills are fine and he's apparently remained effective despite this glaring skill deficiency. I'd move him to long relief, although since he did manage respectable all-around skills at AAA last year, hopefully he can return to an acceptable strikeout rate in 2003. However you should still ignore him for now given his terrible major league rack record.

Previous prospects: May: Julio Manon; June: Zach Day; July: Dicky Gonzalez; August: Seung Song.

New York Mets: Pat Strange, 22, RH Starter
10-10 on 109:59 K:BB in 165 IP over 25 GS(29G) with 165 H, 12 HR, and a 3.82 ERA at AAA Norfolk(IL).

Strange remains a resident near the top of most Mets' prospect lists despite never posting an acceptable dominance above A-ball. He at least maintained all his ratios when moving to Norfolk from AA Binghamton, although I suspect he'll wind up pitching at least a few years out of the bullpen. Reportedly his pitching motion appears destined to force him to the DL in the near future, so any arm problems also give him reason to relieve. Shea makes almost any pitcher a potential target at minimum FAAB, but keep Strange reserved if possible.

Previous prospects: May: Bobby M. Jones; June: John Bale; July: Jim Serrano; August: Tyler Walker.

Philadelphia: Jose Santiago, 27, RH Reliever
7 Saves on 21:7 K:BB in 28 IP over 22 G with 28 H, 0 HR, and a 1.29 ERA at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

Although Philly removed him from the 40-man several weeks ago, they recently purchased his contract again to take a second look at him. His dominance wasn't much better than what he's managed in the majors, and his only particularly impressive skill is that 0.0 homer rate. The Phillies alone possess about five middle relievers I'd rather own than Santiago, so ignore him for the rest of 2002.

Previous prospects: May: Brett Myers; June: Joe Roa; July: Eric Junge; August: Hector Mercado.

Pittsburgh: Matt Guerrier, , RH Starter
7-12 on 130:47 K:BB in 157 IP over 26 GS(27G) with 154 H, 20 HR, and a 4.59 ERA at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Acquired from the White Sox for Damaso Marte in one of the most balanced trades of the year (as long we ignore the likelihood that the Sox could have grabbed Marte on waivers if they'd waited), Guerrier seems as prepared to start in the majors as Josh Fogg this spring. With 38 AAA starts under his belt, he likely won't dominate in the majors but should give the Pirates a fourth quality starter behind Benson, Wells, and Fogg. He deserves to debut now to avoid any potential spring jitters, and I'd feel comfortable rostering him at a buck or two of FAAB considering his potential double-digit 2003 upside.

Previous prospects: May: Bronson Arroyo; June: Salomon Torres; July: Al Reyes; August: Duaner Sanchez.

San Diego: Jason Shiell, 25, RH Reliever
4-3 on 74:29 K:BB in 74.1 IP over 56 G with 62 H, 6 HR, and a 2.78 ERA at AAA Portland(PCL).

While he'll miss a few days after taking a shot to his right forearm off Luis Gonzalez's bat, Shiell's very impressive AAA season makes him a prime candidate for the 2003 Padres' pen. All his skills are superior to the preferred target levels, and San Diego hasn't minded a young relief corps in the past behind their future Hall of Famer. If you're rebuilding, consider a minimum FAAB investment as Shiell could earn several dollars of value next season.

Previous prospects: May: Brandon Villafuerte; June: Jason Kershner; July: Dennis Tankersley; August: Mike Bynum.

San Francisco: Manny Aybar, 27, RH Reliever
24 Saves on 53:18 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 45 G with 46 H, 6 HR, and a 3.75 ERA at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Aybar excelled after stepping into the Fresno's closer role. He's dominated to this extent in the past, but as he's suffered from homer problems throughout his career, an increase in his 1.1 HR/9 could wreck his qualitative numbers. Perhaps he'll finally succeed this September after five unimpressive previous major league seasons, although I'm not prepared to take that risk. Ignore Aybar in favor of the established Giant right-handers.

Previous prospects: May: Kurt Ainsworth; June: Jerome Williams; July: Troy Brohawn; August: Jesse Foppert.

St. Louis: Matt Duff, 27, RH Reliever
11-1 and 9 Saves on 101:26 K:BB in 74 IP over 55 G with 44 H, 4 HR, and a 1.34 ERA between A+ Potomac(CAR), AA New Haven(EL), and AAA Memphis(PCL).

He didn't demonstrate much command in four years with Pittsburgh, but after a year in the Northern League, he returned to the majors, settling with St. Louis after originally signing with Florida. Since he's dominated at three minor league levels this season, his 4:8 K:BB in 5.2 IP is quite surprising. Duff should emerge as a decent setup man sometime next year, however St. Louis faces a rough September schedule, so ignore Duff for now despite his upside as he needs more than 4.2 innings at AAA.

Previous prospects: May: Les Walrond; June: Travis Smith; July: Steve Stemle; August: Gabe Molina.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:MIL(Neugebauer)
Curt Schilling: Sun:MIL(Diggins)
Mike Mussina: Fri:CHW(Biddle)
Roger Clemens: Sat:CHW(D.Wright)
Matt Morris: Sun:@HOU(W.Miller)
Javier Vazquez: Sun:NYM(Astacio)
Barry Zito: Fri:SEA(Valdes)
Kerry Wood: Fri:@CIN(Haynes)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:STL(Simontacchi)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road games at Colorado.
Roy Halladay: Fri:TB(Jo.Sosa)

No starts: Pedro.

Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home games vs. Milwaukee.
Mike Williams: 3 Road games at Philadelphia.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Road games at Cleveland.
Jorge Julio: 3 Road games at Boston.
Scott Stewart: 3 Home games vs. New York Mets.

The four most expensive starters face the weakest opponents, so we'll deploy all four. Wood looks very solid right now and hopefully will dominate after the two offenses likely tired themselves with 39 hits last night. Lastly, either Zito or Oswalt look good, but just in case Oakland's down from losing last night, we'll go with the cheaper and more consistent Oswalt against the weaker opponent. We're not comfortable with Gagne in Colorado even though we'd like the cap flexibility.

We're going to run Stewart instead of Kim to give us enough cap room to deploy both Vlad and Sosa, as the former can run against the Mets this weekend while the latter shouldn't get walked too many times in Cincinnati. Walker and Helton sit due to injury, we don't need the one category contribution from Ichiro or Pierre, and Drew may not wind up in our lineup again. Finally we'd like to sit Jason Giambi and Torii Hunter since both might miss games this weekend with minor injuries, but in order to sit the latter, we need to pick up a replacement outfielder.

While Joe Crede is equally intriguing for 40 bucks less, Vernon Wells faces perhaps the softest remaining schedule of any team, opposing Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Detroit in all his remaining games; Crede's against New York, Kansas City, Boston, and Minnesota. Since we also suspect Wells will see more RBI opportunities and we don't need Crede with Chavez and Hillenbrand looking solid, we'll add Wells with our last buy, dropping Drew, who doesn't seem likely to ever start more than two games in any remaining series.

The Umpire Hunter(2nd lg; 16th overall)
Week 24b: September 13-September 15

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
1B	Paul Konerko		1220
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1120
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Vlad Guerrero		1880
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
OF	Vernon Wells		440
DH	Jimmy Rollins		940
DH	Juan Uribe		500

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roger Clemens		1240
SP	Kerry Wood		1050
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750
RP	Scott Stewart		490

Today's Fantasy Rx: Beware the Pena Effect when rostering prospects. Teams with a solid major league starter and depth at a position are more likely to deal top prospects for help elsewhere. Carlos Pena was stuck behind Rafael Palmeiro with Travis Hafner ascending behind him, and Texas acquired Jason Hart in the Pena package. We've repeatedly observed this situation as no team ever owns enough diversified talent to afford to hoard depth at a single position when they can always at least acquire extra pitching in return.