Today's Fantasy Rx

Rather than focus on the past today with personal reflections on the significance of this anniversary, we'll continue looking at the future by reviewing potential FAAB-worthy prospects with American League pitchers.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Anaheim: Bart Miadich, 26, RH Reliever
14 Saves on 92:64 K:BB in 80.2 IP over 59 G with 60 H, 5 HR, and a 3.68 ERA at AAA Salt Lake City(PCL).

I expected him to emerge as Anaheim's primary right-handed set-up man after he dominated last season while closing at AAA, compiling 27 Saves on a 73:29 K:BB in 59 IP with only 40 H and 4 HR allowed. Instead he didn't even break camp with the team, returning to AAA and losing both command and dominance. At least he's still not allowing many hits or homers, but a 10.3 K/9 isn't sufficient when paired with a 7.1 BB/9. He still deserves an extended shot in the majors considering his overall potential, although you should only FAAB him if rebuilding.

Previous prospects: May: Mickey Callaway; June: Scot Shields; July: Francisco Rodriguez; August: Mark Lukasiewicz.

Baltimore: Pat Hentgen, 33, RH Starter
2-2 on 25:5 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 6 GS with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 2.20 ERA between R Orioles, A- Aberdeen, A Delmarva, A+ Frederick, and AA Bowie(EL).

He missed much of last year and all of this year due to Tommy John surgery last August. Now he's returned to make a few September starts in an attempt to convince the Orioles to pick up his option. I suspect they'll stay with their younger pitchers next year, likely leaving Hentgen to visit the Reds or another team that specializes in rehabbing starters. In the short term, he's still relatively young and has dominated in the past, but he doesn't offer much immediate upside as he's barely pitched for the last fifteen months. Ignore him unless desperate for any starter's innings.

Previous prospects: May: John Stephens; June: Lesli Brea; July: Mike Drumright; August: Steve Bechler.

Boston: Wayne Gomes, 29, RH Reliever
5-4 on 61:40 K:BB in 81 IP over 48 G with 82 H, 9 HR, and a 4.11 ERA between AAA Nashville(PCL) and AAA Pawtucket(IL).

He's spent almost all of the last five years in the majors but only managed a K:BB better than 1.8 back in 1998. His ERA rose in each of the following three years, and his minor league performance this season doesn't provide much hope for future success. Even Boston's soft September schedule won't prevent Gomes from suffering qualitative statistical disasters, so ignore him in almost any situation.

Previous prospects: May: Chris Haney; June: Tim Young; July: Casey Fossum; August: Josh Hancock.

Chicago White Sox: Jon Adkins, 25,
11-9 on 111:44 K:BB in 150 IP over 28 GS(29G) with 199 H, 13 HR, and a 5.40 ERA between A+ Modesto(Cal), AAA Sacramento(PCL), and AAA Charlotte(IL).

Adkins is all the White Sox received in return for Ray Durham, and at the time of the trade, Kenny Williams appeared to receive very little in return. However Adkins has hinted at a bright future in the past, and since joining the Sox, he's posted a 4-2 record on 31:12 K:BB in 46.1 IP with 47 H, 4 HR, and a 3.69 ERA. Setting aside his one start at A+ Modesto, you'll notice his 2.6 K:BB, 6.0 K/9, and .8 HR/9 at Charlotte are relatively similar to the 2.3 K:BB, 7.1 K/9, and .8 HR/9 he managed at Sacramento. The primary distinction between that 6.03 ERA and the more recent 3.69 mark at Charlotte is his respective hit rates: 12.8 H/9 at Sacramento and 9.1 H/9 after the trade. While he probably needs another half-season at AAA, he could emerge as a solid innings' eater for the Sox later next year, but for now you probably should ignore any promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Corey Lee; June: Edwin Almonte; July: Jon Rauch; August: Brooks Kieschnick.

Cleveland: Jason Davis, 22, RH Starter
9-8 on 113:47 K:BB in 158.2 IP over 27 GS with 170 H, 9 HR, and a 3.91 ERA between A+ Kinston(Car) and AA Akron(EL).

Promoted to fill one of their many rotation voids, Davis both deserves a spot on the 40-man roster and needs a year of AAA to refine his skills. A 2.8 K:BB, 6.9 K/9, and .3 HR/9 are all acceptable ratios for AA, but without improving dominance, he may move to the bullpen. Given he's only made 10 starts above A-ball, we can't expect him to find success even though his skills indicate significant promise. Ignore him for now but don't forget him.

Previous prospects: May: Jason Phillips; June: Dave Maurer; July: Jason Beverlin; August: Roy Smith.

Detroit: Eric Eckenstahler, 25, LH Reliever
2-4 on 69:35 K:BB in 67 IP over 52 G with 57 H, 8 HR, and a 4.43 ERA at AAA Toledo(IL).

His overall skills look relatively impressive aside from a 4.7 BB/9; even a slight improvement here or in his 1.1 HR/9 should propel him into a full-time Major League bullpen job. He's already likely to compete for a spot in Detroit's largely decimated pen next spring thanks to his respectable all-around season and great 9.3 strikeout rate, likely helped by his impressive 6'7" height. However I'd like to see him spend another month or two in Toledo even though I try to remain optimistic about anyone from an Illinois college, and I just noticed that Eckenstahler attended Illinois State University. Since he's unlikely to emerge as a viable late-inning option anytime soon, ignore him until he's established in the majors and you need a middle reliever.

Previous prospects: May: Adam Bernero; June: Tim Kalita; July: Franklyn German; August: Andy Van Hekken.

Kansas City:Jeremy Hill, 24, RH Reliever
19 Saves on 80:32 K:BB in 76.1 IP over 56 G with 61 H, 4 HR, and a 2.36 ERA at AA Wichita(TL).

Despite only converting from catcher last season and tools that pale in comparison to fellow call-up Mike MacDougal, Hill is years closer to Major League success than the command-challenged MacDougal. After compiling a 1.35 ERA on 79:33 K:BB in 60 IP last season in A-ball, Hill registered an even more impressive season in the toughest AA league for pitchers. His 2.5 K:BB, 9.4 K/9, and .5 HR/9 indicate he'll probably succeed in the majors now, but if given a half-season or more to first adjust to AAA competition, he could immediately dominate upon a 2003 promotion. The Royals' relief disarray also creates an opportunity for a potential future closer like Hill, so rebuilding teams might want to consider a minimum FAAB bid.

Previous prospects: May: Brett Laxton; June: Matt Skrmetta; July: Kiko Calero; August: Jeff Austin.

Minnesota: Kevin Frederick, 25, RH Reliever
22 Saves on 47:21 K:BB in 55 IP over 46 G with 63 H, 8 HR, and a 4.58 ERA at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

The Twins hold more off-season intrigue than almost any team in baseball for me. I'd love to see them follow a relatively simple plan to restock the franchise and create the ability to sustain an extended playoff run. Signing Hunter to a long-term deal is the first priority, and then they need to exercise the options on Guardado and Hawkins while allowing Mike Jackson, Bob Wells, and likely Tom Prince to depart. They then can trade Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Rick Reed, and perhaps David Ortiz, saving probably $12-18 million in 2003 costs alone. Cuddyer can start in left, LeCroy, Todd Sears, and possibly David Ortiz can share 1B and DH, Johan Santana takes Reed's rotation slot, and Javier Valentin replaces Prince in the catching platoon with Pierzynski. These moves both enhance the potential of the 2003 roster and should enable them to add several solid lower-level prospects to bolster their system. In front of the late-inning depth of Guardado, Hawkins, J.C. Romero, Tony Fiore, and Juan Rincon, Minnesota can select from Grant Balfour, Jack Cressend, Mike Duvall, and Frederick.

He dominated in 2001 at AA New Britain, posting a 3.9 K:BB and 11.8 K/9 in 83 innings of relief. His effectiveness in AAA this year, including a 2.2 K:BB, 7.7 K/9, and decent 1.3 HR/9 makes him an upgrade over Mike Jackson, and Frederick could develop into a more important member of the pen rather rapidly. Consider a minimum FAAB bid after he's recalled even if you just need relief help now.

Previous prospects: May: Johan Santana; June: Grant Balfour; July: David Lee; August: Michael Nakamura.

New York Yankees: Brandon Knight, 26, RH Swingman
12 Saves on 81:37 K:BB in 80.2 IP over 36 G(7GS) with 67 H, 6 HR, and a 3.90 ERA at AAA Columbus.

He started almost exclusively until this season, but his work in the bullpen would deserve a big league roster spot next season on any other team. However he also could easily return to starting as he's now spent five years in AAA, and last year he compiled a 173:45 K:BB in 162.1 IP with 174 H and 16 HR at AAA Columbus, so he probably also should have started this year. Knight appears ready to succeed in the majors, and if given the opportunity, he should earn double-digit value regardless of role. Consider a small FAAB bid given Knight's intriguing potential.

Previous prospects: May: Domingo Jean; June: Brian Rogers; July: Julio DePaula; August: Adrian Hernandez.

Oakland: Heath Bost, 27, RH Reliever
12 Saves on 69:19 K:BB in 78 IP over 52 G with 67 H, 8 HR, and a 3.35 ERA at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Oakland lost last night's game to Anaheim because they started Ted Lilly before he was prepared to pitch 5+ innings, thus causing them to run through most of their surprisingly limited bullpen. Injuries to Chad Harville, Bert Snow, Juan Pena, and Justin Duchscherer have obviously depleted their organization depth, but both Matt J. Miller and Bost, signed as minor league free agents last fall, deserve a shot to help in middle relief. Bost completed his second full year at AAA Colorado Springs and seventh year overall in the Rockies' organization last year, and he compiled a 64:23 K:BB in 75 IP, along with 82 H and 13 HR allowed in one of the best hitters' parks in baseball. Now he's pitched very effectively for a second straight year, and he could help in the majors if given a chance. If he's promoted and you need roster filler, consider a minimum FAAB bid.

Previous prospects: May: Chad Harville; June: Matt J. Miller; July: Micah Bowie; August: Mike Fyhrie.

Seattle: Allan Simpson, 25, RH Reliever
10-5 on 99:50 K:BB in 82.1 IP over 56 G with 53 H, 4 HR, and a 3.06 ERA at AA San Antonio(TL).

Simpson isn't as prepared for the majors as the previously promoted Aaron Taylor, but he deserves to keep his 40-man roster slot and therefore should be available for Piniella to use at least for mop-up work. In 2001, he posted a 1.86 ERA on 37:15 K:BB in 39 IP over 22 AA games, so he probably deserved to begin the year at AAA. Instead Seattle returned him to the Texas League, where he again demonstrated fantastic dominance with a 10.9 K/9 and 5.8 H/9, although his control problems from A-ball returned. While he needs the challenge of AAA next year, his command struggles suggest you should ignore him if promoted now.

Previous prospects: May: Ken Cloude; June: Aquilino Lopez; July: Brian Sweeney; August: Aaron Taylor.

Tampa Bay: Brandon Backe, 24, RH Swingman
4-6 on 45:37 K:BB in 92.1 IP over 20 G(14GS) with 91 H, 9 HR, and a 4.68 ERA at AA Orlando(SL).

Backe converted to pitcher from the outfield last year, quickly jumping to AA after dominating at both levels of A-ball. Unfortunately he struggled at AA Orlando, posting a 5.73 ERA on a 20:11 K:BB in 22 IP with 20 H and 1 HR, skills that suggest he can manage a better ERA. Now he's managed that better ERA this year but his skills have disintegrated. Tampa's already used him in the majors even though he's not even prepared to advance to AAA, and he's unlikely to find any success with the Devil Rays unless he spends at least another year in the high minors. Certainly ignore Backe given his current skill deficiency.

Previous prospects: May: Jason Jimenez; June: Travis Phelps; July: Lance Carter; August: Luis de los Santos.

Texas: Travis Hughes, 24, RH Starter
9-7 on 127:82 K:BB in 143.1 IP over 26 GS with 139 H, 11 HR, and a 3.52 ERA at AA Tulsa(SL).

The Rangers added Hughes to their 40-man roster and AFL team in 2001 following a solid season at AA in relief. Now they've converted him back to starting, and while he's maintained his dominance, the same control problems he experienced when starting in A-ball returned. I suspect he'd pitch very effectively if moved back to relief at AAA next year, and given the number of Rangers' starting prospects, they can afford to leave Hughes in the bullpen. Ignore him for now though he could emerge as one of Cordero's primary setup men by the end of 2003 if handed properly.

Previous prospects: May: Colby Lewis; June: Jeremi Gonzalez; July: Aaron Myette; August: Reynaldo Garcia.

Toronto: Vinny Chulk, 23, RH Starter
13-6 on 110:59 K:BB in 156.2 IP over 25 GS(27G) with 139 H, 12 HR, and a 3.04 ERA between AA Tennessee(SL) and AAA Syracuse(IL).

He spent all but 4.2 innings at AA this year, and while he only managed a 6.4 K/9, all his other skills look quite good. I believe Toronto will eventually move him back to the bullpen unless his dominance improves, although if he remains an effective pitcher next season at AAA, he could continue surprising. He probably deserved a trip to the AFL but the Blue Jays likely wanted to rest his arm after he almost doubled his innings from last year. They also might be trying to hide him from anyone potentially interested in selecting him in the Rule 5 draft so they don't have to add him to the 40-man roster until next season. If they're already planning on purchasing his contract, they probably should bring him to the big leagues now to take a closer look, although since he clearly needs the AAA time, ignore him of brought to the majors in 2002.

Previous prospects: May: Chad Ricketts; June: Mark Hendrickson; July: Robbie Crabtree; August: Scott Wiggins.

Our September roto prospect series will conclude tomorrow with NL pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Even if you're relatively confident in both your ability to keep a FAABed prospect and the availability of a job for him next season, players without a full year in AAA are less likely to find immediate success in the majors. Thoroughly investigate a player's minor league history before rostering them.