Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the last set of changes made to the rating system.

Forty-three National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. Matt Mantei, Wade Miller, Randy Wolf, and Woody Williams joined the list this week while Al Leiter(HR/9) and Steve Kline(K:BB) departed, leaving us with forty-five pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the seventeenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through September 5th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(55535)

Robb Nen

123
abcxy - Kerry Wood(52435)

Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen
Billy Wagner

124
The Mets' homer problems caused Astacio to drop last week and now force Al Leiter down the list, leaving this space empty.

134
Paul Shuey

234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(42344)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(55444)
abxyz - Randy Wolf(15454)
abxy - Jason Schmidt(45545)
abx - Roy Oswalt(43552)

Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

Kline drops down due to continued command problems, as Wolf fulfills my touting of him for the last two months.

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

23
by - Brad Penny(53154)

Carlos Zambrano(50434)
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa

Both Penny and Zambrano look like both safe and strong plays for the rest of this season and entering 2003.

24
abcxyz - Al Leiter(34550)

bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(44353)
z - Britt Reames(05503)

Justin Speier

Although Colon stays just below 124 qualifications, he's easily going to be the most unfairly ignored pitcher in Cy Young voting.

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(42335)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

1
acxyz - Woody Williams(55405)
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(35543)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(55355)
bcyz - Wade Miller(45554)
axz - Chuck Finley(55555)
bxy - Matt Morris(45352)
ax - Odalis Perez(25345)
xz - Matt Clement(24355)

Williams and Miller join one of the most impressive groups of starters and both appear able to remain dominant down the stretch. Finley's managed the even more impressive feat of reaching a 5x5, the level that only Pedro, Randy, and Schilling have attained this season.

Mike Crudale(0)
Joe Borowski
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Chris Hammond
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Mike Koplove
Matt Mantei
Guillermo Mota
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

Mantei hops back to here as he continues to impress upon returning from surgery.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Javier Vazquez(50123)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(33353)
by - Tony Armas, Jr.(4004)

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

Kline settles here as the Expos' starters appear even more risky every week.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(44325)
by - Ruben Quevedo(14002)

Jason Bere(55500)
Tim Redding(04320)
Ryan Jensen(20330)
Jose Cabrera(23033)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

No one here really impresses me here as everyone seems either injured or lacking the necessary skill to deserve spots on most roto teams.

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
y - Ben Sheets(55154)

Kris Benson(32444)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell

Both Sheets and Benson look primed to excel next season, and both could reach double-digit value.

a
bcxy - Hideo Nomo(35555)
xy - Pedro Astacio(20144)
xz - Rick Helling(55440)
x - Oliver Perez(55344)
x - Mark Prior(55505)
x - Joe Roa(34344)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)
Jake Peavy(40555)

Nomo and Peavy look fantastic right now, and we'd deploy Astacio, Helling, and Roa in most any league.

b
y - Steve Trachsel(03443)
y - John Thomson(32045)
Terry Adams(33001)

c
xz - Glendon Rusch(32254)
xz - Robert Person(33320)
yz - Ryan Dempster(32340)
Rick Ankiel

Rusch suddenly looks slightly more intriguing than usual, although we've continued to run him much of the year in three different leagues. However Dempster looks far too risky to deploy in most circumstances.

x
yz - Livan Hernandez(35324)
yz - Tom Glavine(43342)
y - Nelson Figueroa(03222)
z - Jamey Wright(34330)

Figueroa sneaks up here to replace Estes, although only the other three pitchers look safe to use in general.

Brett Tomko(44044)
Vicente Padilla(55431)
Michael Tejera(51440)
Tomo Ohka(53353)
Masato Yoshii(43422)
Miguel Batista(35240)
Brian Meadows(04334)
Kazuhisa Ishii(34304)
Jimmy Haynes(22054)
Kirk Rueter(11434)
Omar Daal(43333)
Damian Moss(31234)
Kip Wells(22251)
Bobby J. Jones(43230)
Andy Ashby(33202)

Bacsik and Fogg surprisingly dropped off completely, leaving Tomko, Ohka, Yoshii, and Daal as your best bets, and Padilla, Tejera, Meadows, and Ishii as reasonably good candidates to deploy against most teams.

y
z - Denny Neagle(31453)
z - Elmer Dessens(43014)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Brandon Duckworth(40053)
Jason Marquis(30402)
Shawn Chacon(40032)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Figueroa's promotion leaves no safe candidates here, and I'm just not comfortable using Marquis and Duckworth right now under most any circumstance.

z
Mike Hampton(43413)
Julian Tavarez(24431)
Andy Benes(33523)
Carl Pavano(00004)
Jeff D'Amico(22301)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)
Manny Aybar

Benes looks reasonable to use, although no one else here should see time on your active roster except perhaps Bruce Chen.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Kurt Ainsworth(240), Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Brian Boehringer, Mike Bynum(343), Rheal Cormier, Will Cunnane, Mike Fetters, Tom Gordon, Danny Graves, Matt Herges, Carlos Hernandez(00504), Luke Hudson, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Pete Munro(03241), Blaine Neal, John Patterson(550), Kirk Saarloos(34054), Carlos Silva, Jason Simontacchi(33532), Ricky Stone, Salmon Torres(4), and Brandon Villafuerte. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(41443), Jimmy Anderson(22320), Bronson Arroyo(0243), Mike Bacsik(05231), Joe Beimel(30522), Alan Benes(33), Dave Coggin(04000), Clay Condrey(3), Aaron Cook(23), Mike DeJean, Ben Diggins(0), Jayson Durocher, Adam Eaton(0), Josh Fogg(23140), Kevin Gryboski, Luther Hackman(03004), Joey Hamilton(34020), Jason Jennings(34404), Dave Mlicki(30300), Brian Moehler(24400), Brett Myers(23122), Chris Reitsma(03030), John Riedling, Jeriome Robertson(0), Dan Smith, Steve Smyth(03500), Garrett Stephenson(33000), Dennis Tankersley(40001), Mike Timlin, Ron Villone(03043), and Justin Wayne(0).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Many recent call-ups that just pitched their first games in the majors, including Ben Diggins, Justin Wayne, Dave Pember, and new Florida spot starter Nate Robertson haven't even mastered AA. While they could succeed at times, they probably need at least a couple months in AAA and are not safe to deploy unless you don't care about qualitative categories.