Today's Fantasy Rx

Twenty-six pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of last week. Kevin Appier, Keith Foulke, and Antonio Osuna joined the list this week while Jorge Julio(K:BB), Eddie Guardado(HR/9), and Barry Zito(HR/9) departed, leaving us with twenty-six pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the seventeenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings, which include all games played through September 4th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(55455)

Keith Foulke
Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Our only concern about Keith Foulke potentially starting is that he won't show much stamina this year; otherwise he could easily make a transition similar to Derek Lowe if given comparable defensive support.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(24525)
abxy - Roy Halladay(43132)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(34355)

Troy Percival

Everyday Eddie drops down due to giving up a couple of homers to the A's, but Appier's surge finally moves him up the list. If the Angels make the playoffs, the probable effectiveness of Washburn, Appier, and Ramon Ortiz gives them a chance to advance.

124
Chad Bradford

134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte

234
Keith Foulke's promotion again leaves this space vacant.

12
bxy - Mark Mulder(34353)

Antonio Osuna
Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

Zito falls as Osuna again establishes himself as a viable reliever.

13
abxy - Tim Wakefield(25445)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(44353)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(44544)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(20454)
x - Danys Baez(22335)

Chan Ho Park finally is demonstrating the skills we expected to see all year long; he's a very intriguing gamble where available for contenders and an excellent pick for rebuilding teams.

Matt Ginter

Eddie Guardado

Eddie settles here again, and unless he receives significantly more innings than expected, he may be stuck here due to allowing too many homers.

24
cx - Paul Wilson(43320)

Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(32330)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(32243)
a - Johan Santana(54454)

Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Hopefully Julio will reassert himself to secure a spot here by the end of the year, as we strongly believe he'll continue to close effectively for the foreseeable future.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(53533)
bx - Joel Pineiro(35435)
xy - Freddy Garcia(22233)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(43444)
x - Victor Zambrano(52542)
z - Kelvim Escobar

We expect Zito's drop to be temporary as only a bad decision by Art Howe to leave Zito in the game to allow a second homer in the ninth caused his fall.

Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez

3
bxy - John Burkett(40320)
yz - Rick Reed(45554)
y - Andy Pettitte(35434)

Reed is now scorching hot and a good play in almost any league.

Gary Glover(14032)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

4
ax - Derek Lowe(52334)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
xyz - Jamie Moyer(24553)
xy - Mark Buehrle(34534)
xy - Jeff Weaver(42434)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(02344)
y - Eric Milton(45550)
John Stephens(55531)

I continue to favor Weaver as while his dominance is a little weak and he's allowing too many homers, the half-season of bullpen work hopefully will keep him from the arm injury I previously expected given his recent workload.

b
xy - Cory Lidle(34535)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

c
x - David Wells(31354)
x - Mark Redman(05342)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

x
yz - Aaron Sele(25342)
yz - Ramon Ortiz(31524)
y - Paul Byrd(44420)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(34233)
z - Sidney Ponson(34443)
z - Frank Castillo(24004)

Each of these pitchers worries me for various reasons, and while I'd still run Ortiz against most everyone, try to deploy the others selectively when possible.

John Lackey(54323)
Ismael Valdes(53422)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Rodrigo Lopez(33433)
Runelvys Hernandez(34333)
Casey Fossum(33403)
Shawn Sedlacek(20532)

I don't see any problems here among the healthy pitchers and would be happy to use any of these guys against practically every opponent.

y
z - Brad Radke(44223)
z - Kenny Rogers(43412)
z - Todd Ritchie(03302)
z - Pat Hentgen

Jon Garland(40154)
Joe Mays(44021)
Dave Burba(43203)
Esteban Loiaza(30421)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Jeff Suppan(31210)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer(2)

No real changes here as Radke and Rogers are mildly acceptable and some teams could risk Garland, Loiaza, or Mays.

z
Jason Johnson(45333)
Jim Parque(2040)
Steve Parris(40010)
Blake Stein(02)

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Juan Acevedo, Mickey Callaway(45), Aaron Harang(03320), Travis Harper(04430), Oscar Henriquez, Roberto Hernandez, Jorge Julio, Kyle Lohse(23524), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(33131), Carl Sadler, Steve Sparks(32402), Ben Weber, and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Miguel Asencio(31243), James Baldwin(41500), Joaquin Benoit(40530), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(000), Doug Creek, Travis Driskill(43110), Scott Erickson(30000), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(01135), Dustin Hermanson(3), Danny Kolb, Jose Lima(02040), Mike Maroth(23321), Darrell May(30022), Justin Miller(00024), Terry Mulholland(4), Aaron Myette(33000), Chuck Nagy(00500), Brian Powell(50032), Jay Powell, Dennys Reyes(010), Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Ricardo Rodriguez(240), Scot Shields, Mike Smith(00000), Jorge Sosa(04311), Jeff Tam, Corey Thurman(0), Andy Van Hekken(3), Pete Walker(43403), Jake Westbrook(5400), Mark Wohlers, and Danny Wright(32534).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Today's the last day for the early bird discount to the AFL conference. Please sign up now if you're interested in spending a weekend watching prospects play ball in perfect weather, along with nearly non-stop fantasy discussion.