Today's Fantasy Rx

On our third day of discussing September trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, improve their ERA by at least 1.50 from August to September. I only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Dogs of August list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Randy Wolf, P, PHI; -2.92 ERA. August: acquire; September: acquire.

Tim Hudson, P, OAK; -2.85. August: wait; September: acquire.

Bob Wells, P, MIN; -2.61. August: deal or cut; September: deal or cut.

Mike Stanton, P, NYY: -2.16. August: deal; September: wait.

Brad Radke, P, MIN; -1.91. August: deal; September: wait.

Tim Wakefield, P, BOS; -1.75. August: acquire; September: acquire.

Sean Lowe, P, PIT; -1.54. August: deal; September: deal or cut.

Jeff Fassero, P, STL: -3.19 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	20/39	142	175/20	123:56	5-14/0	5.77
Sept	14/40	118.2	91/13	102:36	7-2/1	2.58

02Aug 0/12	12.2	20/2	14:8	1-0/	6.40

Even after watching Fassero provide significant contributions to the destruction of the Cubs' season for the last few months, I occasionally still considered adding him to a roto team or two. He's maintained fairly good command for much of 2002, and a 2.53 G-F on the year, the second best mark of his career, helps offset his elevated hit rate to some extent. The Cardinals' offense will provide more opportunities for him to vulture wins than he received in Chicago, although anything approaching a 2.00 WHIP will limit his value. Considering the number of recently-promoted pitchers with solid skill in the minors, I'd rather take a chance with a rookie with more upside, preferring to deal or cut Fassero.

Ricardo Rincon, P, OAK: -2.84 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	0/56	49.2	46/7	36:29	2-4/3	5.07
Sept	0-57	44.1	32/2	46:18	1-1/0	2.23

02Aug 0/14	11.2	6/1	11:3	0-0/0	2.31

Marshall McDougall isn't exactly a cheap price for a reliever, but dealing him to Cleveland for Rincon helped Billy Beane fix his biggest mistake of the year. Oakland's 3-Mike left-handed relief corps of Magnante, Holtz, and Venafro failed them miserably, a problem finally remedied by promoting Micah Bowie and acquiring Rincon, likely the best available left-hander. He certainly dominated throughout August, so he won't be able to match his normal improvement, although considering the A's current momentum, I could see him largely avoiding earned runs for the rest of the year. Rincon's skills are mostly great, even including a helpful 1.14 G-F, placing him near the top of most any list of likely-available, low-risk middle relievers.

Mike Timlin, P, PHI: -2.62 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	0/55	62	73/7	38:14	4-2/13	4.65
Sept	0/60	57.2	52/2	42:26	5-2/18	2.03

02Aug 0/16	16.1	11/3	8:2	2-1/0	2.20

Although he's held a great command ratio all year, never allowed as many hits as innings pitched, and has managed both a solid ERA and WHIP since the beginning of the season, Timlin continues to struggle with the longball. He owns a 1.5 HR/9 despite a very good 1.77 G-F. However as he's never posted a homer rate worse than 1.3 HR/9 in the past, and holds a 2.32 career G-F rate, his current problems appear rather fluky. The Phillies' surge should place him in line for some vultured wins, and even if he allows another homer or two by the end of the year, they haven't overly hurt his qualitative numbers thus far. Timlin's a decent target to acquire if you need a decent middle reliever.

Brian Anderson, P, ARI: -2.61 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	20/23	111.1	139/23	46:19	8-6/0	5.74
Sept	19/27	141	129/17	58:28	7-4/0	3.13

02Aug 4/5	27	30/3	13:3	1-2/0	4.33

Anderson's struggled with both dominance and homer problems in the past, and while he's still not striking anyone out, his career-best 1.20 G-F suggest less homer problems in the future. Arizona's solid offense, defense, and bullpen provide good protection for him in each outing, giving him a better chance to win than most pitchers with this skill set. He's even locked into his best stretch of the season with a 544144 PQS run, making now a very good time to acquire Anderson, although make certain he's not active for the Snakes' trip to Colorado beginning on September 20th.

Glendon Rusch, P, MIL: -2.37 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	18/18	100.1	123/20	88:39	4-9/0	5.92
Sept	16/23	111.2	114/12	89:21	5-5/1	3.55

02Aug 6/6	38	37/3	20:16	2-3/0	2.61

Rusch is compiling one of the more inconsistent seasons in baseball, following a 2.46 ERA in April with an 8.13 in May, 3.86 in June, 8.13 in July, and then the 2.61 in August. Even as he's holding a career-best 1.64 G-F, his hit and homer rates appear the primary culprit, as his 8.3 H/9 and .7 HR/9 in even-numbered months are dramatically better than the 13.2 H/9 and 2.3 HR/9 he's posted in the other two months. He's managed a couple of decent starts in each month, so his current 5-start PQS log of 33225 isn't that impressive. Milwaukee unfortunately also finishes the season by spending the last three weeks against St. Louis, Arizona, Houston, and San Francisco, all teams that need to continue winning to reach the post-season. We still like his potential and will use him selectively, but most teams should probably deal Rusch, especially if you can't reserve him at your leisure.

Roy Halladay, P, TOR: -2.28 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	9/12	66.1	70/9	49:23	3-2/0	4.61
Sept	13/15	85	69/6	73:21	3-3/0	2.33

02Aug 6/6	41.2	42/2	25:15	2-2/0	3.24

Picking up Halladay in challenge immediately prior to his Royals' drubbing and announcement of likely reduced playing time ranks as one of our worst moves of the year even though the stats completely supported it at the time. His current 5-start PQS log of 43132 depicts a pitcher who's lost most of his skills, likely due to burnout, after failing to dominate in only three of his first twenty-four starts. At least the schedule finally favors the Jays as they spend the last three weeks against Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Detroit. So while his increasing control problems worry us, we still recommend you acquire Halladay, particularly since he may be available in some leagues as impatient owners look for someone with more recent success.

Andy Benes, P, STL: -1.99 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	21/27	139	135/16	105:64	9-9/0	4.66
Sept	15/18	104.1	84/9	72:25	10-3/0	2.67

02Aug 6/6	36.2	22/2	28:17	3-1/0	1.72

He's managed a 3533523 PQS log since beginning the year with a disastrous 00000 log, although the creeping return of his control difficulties suggest he won't post another 1.72 ERA this month. The Cardinals need him to both start and pitch relatively deep into games as much as possible, and with a career-worst .70 G-F increasing the likelihood of homer problems, additional unnecessary innings will drag down his qualitative numbers. You can probably wait and continue to run Benes if you need wins, innings, or strikeouts, but try to avoid deploying him for the Cardinals' last road trip of the year, which begins next Monday in Milwaukee, continues that weekend in Houston, and concludes the following week in Colorado.

Matt Herges, P, MON: -1.98 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	4/26	50	51/3	35:21	1-3/0	4.32
Sept	0/34	50	43/5	27:14	4-2/1	2.34

02Aug 0/9	11.2	15/3	10:7	0-1/0	7.71

The injury problems of T.J. Tucker and now Scott Stewart leave Expos' saves to Joey Eischen, Dan Smith, and the veteran Herges since Montreal is limiting their call-ups in a bizarre attempt to cut costs. Unfortunately Herges' skills have plummeted since June, and while his 17:7 K:BB in 20.2 IP over the two most recent months is very good, allowing 26 hits and 7 homers suggests a significant problem. An overall soft schedule against some of the worst teams in the league, including the Cubs, Mets, and Marlins, provides hope for a strong team finish, but Herges doesn't appear able to make positive contributions to that crusade. Deal or cut him unless your alternatives harbor even greater downside.

Brett Tomko, P, SD: -1.95 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	18/27	126	134/20	87:49	8-9/1	5.21
Sept	12/22	99.1	83/8	83:34	6-4/0	3.26

02Aug 6/6	38	39/8	20:11	3-2/0	5.21

Over his last six starts, he's posted a 404404 PQS log. A disastrous 1.9 homer rate destroyed his August ERA, although both his other skills and overall statistics remain very comparable with historical rates. His 1.47 G-F far outdistances his previous career-best of 1.09 G-F from 2000, suggesting his 1.3 HR/9 on the year is probably unfairly elevated. However the Padres face the same schedule extremes as most teams this month, solely opposing Houston, Arizona, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, along with spending this weekend in Colorado. Deploying Tomko remains risky against almost any of these teams, so only wait on him if you can afford the potential qualitative damage.

Esteban Yan, P, TB: -1.77 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	1/43	58	66/12	52:22	3-6/3	5.74
Sept	1/39	56.2	59/6	55:21	2-2/6	3.97

02Aug 0/11	18	17/3	19:3	1-2/3	3.00

He's posted an absolutely fantastic batch of August skills, and he'd be an asset to any contenders' bullpen right now. If he remains in Tampa, he should easily grab a few more saves this year even though I don't expect him to return to the franchise next season. The combination of quantitative and even likely qualitative help make Yan a solid target to acquire for almost any team.

Joe Mays, P, MIN: -1.71 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	14/17	86.2	93/13	68:28	2-10/0	5.19
Sept	15/16	98.1	90/9	59:29	6-6/0	3.48

02Aug 5/5	29.2	35/2	14:6	2-3/0	5.16

Mays' current 5-start PQS log of 44021 demonstrates his inability to improve on a mildly promising return after losing almost half the season to injury. The Twins' excess of starting depth leaves all five starters in competition for playoff spots, and while Kyle Lohse ranks last in seniority, he's the only pitcher to remain healthy and starting all year. Minnesota doesn't need Mays to excel, likely limiting his quantitative contributions, but with his walk rate remaining solid, we like his upside for the last three weeks. After finishing these two weeks against Seattle and Oakland, Minnesota can relax against Detroit, Cleveland, and the White Sox through the end of the season, allowing you to wait for Mays' probable surge down the stretch.

Jay Witasick, P, SF: -1.56 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	13/21	83	101/11	60:50	4-5/0	5.64
Sept	12/31	99.1	108/16	97:47	6-4/0	4.08

02Aug 0/6	8	10/2	4:3	0-0/0	6.75

San Francisco's overall bullpen depth, further strengthened by the return of Felix Rodriguez's dominance and a solid slate of September call-ups, allows Dusty Baker to selectively use relievers through the end of the season. However they face a tough schedule this and Witasick's skill disintegration makes him a very risky play. Perhaps two weeks on the DL didn't give him enough time to recover, suggesting that he likely either won't see much action this month or won't perform effectively when he pitches. Unfortunately you likely should deal or cut Witasick to avoid probable qualitative damage.

Normally improving pitchers who weren't in the majors during most or all of August include Ken Hill(-3.48 ERA), Mike Morgan(-2.74), Chris Carpenter(-2.73), Ricky Bottalico(-2.69), Bryce Florie(-2.61), Jeff Shaw(-2.55), Jose Silva(-2.39), Woody Williams(-2.37), Wayne Gomes(-2.28), Dennis Cook(-2.02), Pat Mahomes(-1.92), Aaron Sele(-1.84), Rick Ankiel(-1.51), and Todd Ritchie(-1.50).

Today's Fantasy Rx: With such wide schedule disparity over the last month, almost entirely due to the vaunted unbalanced schedule, take extra precaution when deploying pitchers. We'll attempt to only use pitchers with both good overall skills and current PQS trends in the West divisions while likely employing a more liberal strategy elsewhere considering the lack of offense facing many teams east of the Rockies.