Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the last set of changes made to the rating system.

Forty-one National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. Randy Johnson, Mike Koplove, Chris Hammond, Billy Wagner, and Chuck Finley joined the list this week while Justin Speier(HR/9), Blaine Neal(H/9), and Pedro Astacio(HR/9), departed, leaving us with forty-three pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the sixteenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through August 29th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(55555)

Robb Nen

I didn't have the chance to include last night's drubbing in these rankings, so Randy ascends back to his rightful place up here. He still should be solid down the stretch, and a mild PQS hiccup still didn't even qualify as a disaster.

123
abcxy - Kerry Wood(55243)

Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen
Billy Wagner

Wagner rejoins this level even as Izzy's now experiencing more arm troubles. Dotel and Wagner may be the strongest combination of relievers to own on any team, as even the qualitative stats of each insure their value as long as they remain healthy.

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(33455)

Speier finally loses his grip on this spot, leaving Leiter alone here as one of the most underrated pitchers in the game.

134
Paul Shuey

234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(34234)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

You should probably explore reserving Lawrence as he faces a horrible September schedule and is hurting your WHIP even in his otherwise solid starts.

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(55554)
abx - Roy Oswalt(34355)
aby - Jason Schmidt(55455)

Both Randy and Schilling's 5 streaks ended at 7 games, one more game each than Pedro managed. Oswalt and Schmidt both have great shots at sustaining a similar dominant streak, making them vital trade targets for teams needing pitching.

Steve Kline
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

23
by - Brad Penny(35531)

Carlos Zambrano(04504)
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(44435)
z - Britt Reames(05503)

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(44233)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

1
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(43554)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(55355)
axz - Chuck Finley(05555)
bxy - Matt Morris(45352)
ax - Odalis Perez(32534)
xz - Matt Clement(42435)

Finley's fulfilling my every expectation, and if he's somehow available in your league, there's no reason he can't continue to dominate through the end of the season.

Mike Crudale(0)
Joe Borowski
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Chris Hammond
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Mike Koplove
Guillermo Mota
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

Neal departs as Hammond and Koplove return, although based on schedule, the Pirates, Expos, Mets, and Braves should provide the most favorable match-ups.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Randy Wolf(54154)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(04501)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(43335)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(20400)

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(44325)
by - Ruben Quevedo(14002)

Jason Bere(45550)
Ryan Jensen(42033)
Tim Redding(04320)
Jose Cabrera(23033)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
y - Ben Sheets(15515)

Kris Benson(23244)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell

I'm primarily interested in Benson out of most potential keeper pitchers, as Lloyd McClendon's kept his pitch counts strictly limited, he's reportedly regained the easy motion he used prior to his injury, and an August of a 3.73 ERA on 22:8 K:BB in 31.1 IP with 29 H and 4 HR indicates his skills are back.

a
bcxy - Hideo Nomo(43555)
cxyz - Woody Williams(45540)
xy - Pedro Astacio(45201)
xz - Rick Helling(45544)
x - Oliver Perez(55344)
x - Mark Prior(55505)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)
Jake Peavy(44055)

Finley's move up leaves the newly-risen Nomo leading here, and he, Helling, Prior, and Peavy all look like fantastic pitchers to deploy in any league.

b
cyz - Wade Miller(43455)
y - Steve Trachsel(14034)
y - John Thomson(23204)
Terry Adams(33001)

c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(04323)
xz - Glendon Rusch(33225)
xz - Robert Person(33320)
Rick Ankiel

x
yz - Livan Hernandez(33532)
yz - Tom Glavine(34334)
z - Shawn Estes(50224)
z - Jamey Wright(32343)

Estes replaces Helling, and while Livan and Glavine are probably safe bets, I think Wright remains quite risky even after moving to St. Louis.

Vicente Padilla(42554)
Joe Roa(43434)
Masato Yoshii(44342)
Michael Tejera(35144)
Brett Tomko(40440)
Omar Daal(54333)
Andy Ashby(45332)
Miguel Batista(33524)
Kip Wells(52422)
Tomo Ohka(15335)
Mike Bacsik(40523)
Brian Meadows(40433)
Bobby J. Jones(34323)
Josh Fogg(22314)
Kazuhisa Ishii(23430)
Damian Moss(41312)
Jimmy Haynes(12205)
Kirk Rueter(11143)

Surprisingly I didn't see drastic change here for the first week in quite some time as only Denny Stark left due to his terrible command. Of the healthy pitchers, only Ishii, Moss, Haynes, and Rueter look even mildly questionable, and Ishii's probably the only one we wouldn't deploy unless absolutely necessary.

y
z - Denny Neagle(55314)
z - Elmer Dessens(44301)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Jason Marquis(43040)
Brandon Duckworth(04005)
Shawn Chacon(40032)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Ignore or at least avoid deploying everyone here unless desperate for innings.

z
Andy Benes(53352)
Julian Tavarez(33244)
Mike Hampton(34341)
Carl Pavano(40000)
Jeff D'Amico(22301)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)
Manny Aybar

Returning Pavano to the rotation just ranks as another of the dozen awful pitching decisions by Florida this year. Benes at least looks mildly playable, and we still like Chen's upside in the bullpen, but I don't see any overly compelling reason to entice anyone into using the other starters that conclude today's ranking.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Brian Boehringer, Mike Bynum(343), Rheal Cormier, Will Cunnane, Mike Fetters, Tom Gordon, Danny Graves, Matt Herges, Carlos Hernandez(00050), Luke Hudson, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Matt Mantei, Blaine Neal, Kirk Saarloos(33405), Carlos Silva, Jason Simontacchi(33532), Ricky Stone, and Brandon Villafuerte. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(44144), Jimmy Anderson(22320), Bronson Arroyo(0243), Josh Beckett(43030), Joe Beimel(30522), Alan Benes(3), Dave Coggin(04000), Mike DeJean, Jayson Durocher, Kevin Gryboski, Luther Hackman(00300), Joey Hamilton(34020), Jason Jennings(44340), Dave Mlicki(30300), Brian Moehler(24400), Pete Munro(30324), Brett Myers(22312), Chris Reitsma(20303), John Riedling, Dan Smith, Steve Smyth(0350), Garrett Stephenson(03300), Dennis Tankersley(40001), Mike Timlin, and Ron Villone(03043).

Today's Fantasy Rx: If intelligent managers begin using their best relievers in high leverage situations in the middle innings instead of only letting them protect three-run leads in the ninth for three outs and no one on base, the save opportunities for these top relievers will decrease. As objectively worse pitchers gain more saves, the value of the average closer in roto will drop.

Since top pitchers should now accumulate more innings with similarly dominant qualitative numbers, we'll see more pitchers like Octavio Dotel approach a hundred innings with very helpful ERA and WHIP. More middle relievers will easily reach into double-digits without any saves, and Chad Bradford's incredible season displays the potential for even pitchers with great qualitative numbers and limited innings.

Summarily, as I've often suggested, continue to focus on relatively low-risk and highly skilled middle relievers to round out your staff. If sabermetrics continue to permeate MLB, more such relievers will be available in roto drafts, and exploring this potential trend now could help you reap significant benefits over the next few seasons.