Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Mike Koplove, RH Reliever
4-1 on 30:14 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 40 G with 26 H, 1 HR, and a 1.90 ERA.

These skills are remarkably similar to the MLEs he's posted over the last couple of seasons, so while his ERA is probably low considering his average dominance, he's allowing less than a batter per inning to reach base while pitching in front of the third best defense in the league. His 2.29 G-F provides good support for a wonderful .2 HR/9, and since Manager Bob Brenly will freely use the rest of his capable bullpen to bail out relievers in trouble, we shouldn't worry about severe ERA or WHIP damage at any time. Acquire Koplove if you need qualitative category protection.

July Overachiever: John Patterson, RH Starter
Old stats:1-0 on 10:3 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 2 GS with 8 H, 1 HR, and a .68 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 3:1 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 1 GS with 10 H, 4 HR, and an 18.90 ERA before returning to the minors.

Previous Overachievers: April: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer; May: Curt Schilling, RH Ace; June: Randy Johnson, LH Future Hall of Fame Ace.

Atlanta: Damian Moss, LH Starter
8-5 on 92:72 K:BB in 146.2 IP over 23 GS(26G) with 106 H, 15 HR, and a 3.31 ERA.

After dominating in the upper minors last year with a 2.7 K:BB and 9.6 K/9, he's shockingly performed better than any other rookie starter in baseball except for Rodrigo Lopez. However only the benefits of pitching in front of baseball's best defense keep his hit rate at 6.5 H/9, and a 1.06 G-F suggests his .9 HR/9 might be a little low. Considering his 1.3 K:BB and 5.6 K/9, I have severe doubts as to Moss's ability to sustain his qualitative numbers through the end of the season, and we've already started regularly benching on him on our teams. Explore a potential deal of Moss, as while he's fulfilled our pre-season statistical expectations, his skills don't support his performance.

July Overachiever: Kerry Ligtenberg, RH Reliever
Old stats: 2-3 on 38:23 K:BB in 45 IP over 34 G with 35 H, 4 HR, and a 2.00 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 5:5 K:BB in 12 IP over 8 G with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Gryboski, RH Reliever; June: Chris Hammond, LH Reliever.

Chicago Cubs: Joe Borowski, RH Reliever
3-4 on 74:25 K:BB in 76.1 IP over 58 G with 64 H, 7 HR, and a 2.59 ERA.

Among the Cubs' many terrible personnel moves last season was the insanely impatient indecision that resulted in Borowski and Carlos Zambrano, both in the middle of very solid seasons at AAA Iowa, only receiving one start each before the promotion of Juan Cruz from AA. Chicago's now discovered the benefits of sticking with both Zambrano and Borowski for longer than one day and will likely rely upon both pitchers as key components of next year's staff. Borowski's 2001 MLEs of a 3.6 K:BB, 8.2 K/9, and .8 HR/9 are remarkably similar to his current rates of 3.0 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, and .8 HR/9, with the first two numbers indicating a tradeoff of some control for dominance, and the latter slightly superior to what I'd expect given a 1.01 G-F. He's the best reliever in the worst pen in the National League, and with Chicago weather already cooling off, there's little reason not to acquire Borowski even if he likely won't provide any saves.

July Overachiever: Carlos Zambrano, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-2 on 48:27 K:BB in 48 IP over 6 GS(22G) with 46 H, 5 HR, and a 3.56 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-3 on 14:14 K:BB in 22.2 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 2 HR, and a 4.76 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Cruz, RH Starter; May: Antonio Alfonesca, RH Closer; June: Matt Clement, RH Starter.

Cincinnati: John Riedling, RH Reliever
1-2 on 19:18 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 22 G with 28 H, 2 HR, and a 2.55 ERA.

Riedling looked prepared in the spring of 2001 to emerge as the Reds' primary setup man, potentially supplanting Danny Graves by this season. Injury problems limited his play each of these past two seasons, and with an awful 1.1 K:BB indicating that he still hasn't returned to his pre-2001 form, I find talk of him moving into a larger role fairly ridiculous. However the Reds have overpaid Danny Graves for years when he likely didn't deserve to close, and even though Scott Williamson is the logical candidate to assume anchoring the pen, Cincinnati might move him back into the rotation to replace departing free agents. Picking up Rielding cheaply is an intriguing gamble for rebuilding teams, but even given his outstanding 4.12 G-F, contenders should still deal or reserve Riedling if worried about his qualitative numbers.

July Overachiever: Jimmy Haynes, RH Starter
Old stats: 11-6 on 77:49 K:BB in 127.2 IP over 22 GS with 137 H, 15 HR, and a 4.16 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 12:11 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 5 GS with 31 H, 3 HR, and a 5.68 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter; May: Chris Reitsma, RH Starter; June: Luis Pineda, RH Swingman.

Colorado: Jose Jimenez, RH Closer
34 Saves on 38:9 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 61 G with 63 H, 7 HR, and a 3.92 ERA.

He's already exceeded his previous career best save total by 10 despite the presence of the superior Todd Jones in the bullpen. I'm more surprised that Jimenez has 9 losses while leading the Rockies in ERA, but at least relatively solid skills of 4.2 K:BB, 5.7 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9 support a sub-4.00 ERA. His 3.13 G-F is also a great number for any pitcher albeit especially helpful in Coors.

In case I don't stress this point with enough frequency, pitchers like Jimenez and Danny Graves are exactly the type of reliever who should remain in the closer's role. Reserving a dominant pitcher like Billy Wagner or Kaz Sasaki for one inning of work is not the proper deployment of a team's best pitchers. Colorado, by keeping Todd Jones and Justin Speier available in the middle innings, at least prepares their best relievers for the most important innings of work to insure a save situation going into the ninth. While roto owners prefer that a Trevor Hoffman remain available to protect that 3-run lead at the end of each game, baseball teams often disadvantage themselves by restricting the availability of their best pitchers.

Jimenez's 9 losses certainly hurt teams using net wins, although his overall production is still a nice improvement from last season and suggests he should be able to maintain this level of effectiveness. The only reason I'm limited to advising you wait instead of actively looking to add him is due to Colorado spending most of the next month at home, putting him at generally increased risk to inflict qualitative statistical damage.

July Overachiever: Justin Speier, RH Reliever
Old stats: 4-0 on 31:13 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 34 G with 25 H, 1 HR, and a 3.24 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 8:2 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 14 G with 12 H, 4 HR, and a 5.65 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Jennings, RH Starter; May: Denny Stark, RH Starter; June: Dennys Reyes, LH Reliever.

Florida: Graeme Lloyd, LH Reliever
3-4 and 5 Saves on 32:13 K:BB in 48.1 IP over 57 G with 55 H, 5 HR, and a 4.47 ERA.

Since joining the Marlins, he's compiled a 2.04 ERA on a 15:5 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 16 G with 14 H and 0 HR, so I certainly expect he'll receive a couple more years as a highly paid reliever. Only a 10.2 hit rate inflated by the two of the four worst defenses in the league keeps his ERA much above 4.00; his 6.0 K/9 is fairly good compared to much of his career. A 1.77 G-F limits the downside of his .9 HR/9, and considering his excellence since reaching Florida, you shouldn't be afraid to acquire Lloyd.

July Overachiever: Carl Pavano, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-9 on 61:33 K:BB in 85.1 IP over 14 GS(23G) with 107 H, 14 HR, and a 5.70 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 8:6 K:BB in 13 IP over 7 G(1GS) with 22 H, 1 HR, and a 5.54 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter; May: Hansel Izquierdo, RH Swingman; June: Michael Tejera, LH Swingman.

Houston: Roy Oswalt, RH Starter
17-6 on 171:49 K:BB in 195 IP over 28 GS(29G) with 178 H, 16 HR, and a 2.91 ERA.

Ignoring his .775 career winning percentage and his unbelievable 8-1 record and 2.15 ERA since this All-Star break, he's now moved ahead of Tom Glavine as the third best pitcher in the NL. At last year's AFL conference, John Sickels predicted Oswalt would win at least 2 Cy Youngs if Oswalt remains healthy, and his prediction almost seems conservative. Keeping his strikeout rate at 7.9 K/9 helps prevent excessive pitch counts, aside from three career starts of 119 pitches and one game last year with 125, he's never exceeded 115 pitches. The Astros obviously recognize the potential of Oswalt, who turns 25 today, and while his arm is probably mostly developed, they likely own the rights to the best pitcher in baseball over the next five years. Continually defying any Minute Maid-induced drubbings, Oswalt is someone who any owner should be ecstatic to acquire.

July Overachiever: Octavio Dotel, RH Reliever
Old stats: 5-3 and 4 Saves on 82:21 K:BB in 66 IP over 55 G with 42 H, 7 HR, and a 2.18 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 and 1 Save on 17:2 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 13 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 0.57 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter; May: Ricky Stone, RH Reliever; June: Kirk Saarloos, RH Starter.

Los Angeles: Jesse Orosco, LH Reliever
1-2 on 19:11 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 45 G with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 3.09 ERA.

Along with Tim Raines, Mike Morgan, and Rickey, Orosco is one of the four players remaining who played in the majors as early as 1978, and he seems prepared to keep setting down lefties for the indefinite future. Orosco probably pitches less innings per game than any pitcher as he faces an average of about two pitchers each outing. The 45-year-old has faced mostly left-handed batters but has kept all hitters to under a .700 OPS with a negligible platoon split. Orosco now faces the dual problems of age and a rough September schedule against fellow playoff contenders in NL West, and he just seems too risky to own. Since he doesn't even contribute innings, deal or cut him as LA travels to Houston, Arizona, San Francisco, and Colorado over the next two weeks.

July Overachiever: Odalis Perez, LH Starter
Old stats: 10-7 on 101:21 K:BB in 144.1 IP over 21 GS with 125 H, 13 HR, and a 3.31 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 23:10 K:BB in 26 IP over 5 GS with 25 H, 4 HR, and a 3.46 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Daal, LH Swingman; May: Eric Gagne, RH Closer; June: Kazuhisa Ishii, LH Starter.

Milwaukee: Mike Buddie, RH Reliever
1-2 on 28:21 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 25 G with 46 H, 5 HR, and a 4.54 ERA.

He continually posts good ERAs at AAA with terrible command, impressing intellectually shallow major league officials who then express shock when such pitchers provide frequent explosive moments in the majors. Buddie's quite lucky to hold an ERA under 5.00 with a 1.3 K:BB, 10.4 H/9, and a 2.45 G-F that at least supports his 1.1 HR/9. With Luis Vizcaino and Ray King anchoring the bullpen and Mike DeJean apparently still the closer, I don't foresee Buddie gaining a greater role, and with his questionable qualitative numbers, deal or cut him in favor of someone with slight upside.

July Overachiever: Jayson Durocher, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 20:11 K:BB in 22 IP over 17 G with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 2.05 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 10:6 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 9 G with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 4.35 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever; May: Mike DeJean, RH Closer-for-Now; June: Valerio de los Santos, LH Reliever.

Montreal: Dan Smith, RH Reliever
1-0 on 19:15 K:BB in 32 IP over 21 G with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 2.25 ERA.

While he looked very impressive at AAA Ottawa, compiling a 5-4 record on 61:18 K:BB in 83.1 IP over 14 starts with 71 H, 10 HR, and a 3.24 ERA, Montreal has no room for him after filling their rotation with Vazquez, Armas, Ohka, Colon, and Yoshii. So he's stuck in the bullpen and posting a great ERA even as he's showing little command or dominance. A 1.03 G-F suggests his .8 HR/9 will increase very quickly, and I don't expect him to provide any fantasy help down the stretch. Deal or cut Smith in favor of someone with less downside.

July Overachiever: Joey Eischen, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-1 on 31:10 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 36 G with 30 H, 1 HR, and a 1.67 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 5:1 K:BB in 8 IP over 10 G with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever; May: Matt Herges, RH Short Reliever; June: Tomokazu Ohka, RH Starter.

New York Mets: Dave Weathers, RH Reliever
5-3 on 50:31 K:BB in 64 IP over 60 G with 61 H, 6 HR, and a 3.23 ERA.

He strikes me as one of the more inconsistent relievers in baseball, and his monthly ERAs this year illustrate the problem: 2.35 in April, 1.02 in May, 6.48 in June, 1.93 in July, and 8.31 in August. Unfortunately his previously solid skills have vanished since the All-Star break, as he's compiled a 12:16 K:BB in 17 IP with 16 hits. A 1.42 G-F at least indicates he might hold his .8 homer rate, but the overall collapse of the Mets leaves most of their team very vulnerable to value drops. Deal or cut Weathers since I doubt he'll provide a positive contribution to your team if you don't.

July Overachiever: Pedro Astacio, RH Starter
Old stats: 10-3 on 111:45 K:BB in 131.1 IP over 20 GS with 114 H, 15 HR, and a 3.08 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-4 on 15:12 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 5 GS with 40 H, 4 HR, and a 6.91 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever; May: Steve Trachsel, RH Starter; June: Mark Guthrie, LH Reliever.

Philadelphia: Mike Timlin, RH Reliever
4-4 on 45:9 K:BB in 78.1 IP over 58 G with 61 H, 13 HR, and a 2.53 ERA.

He allowed 1.3 HR/9 on a 2.06 G-F with the Cardinals this year, and since moving to Philadelphia he's posted a 2.1 HR/9 on a 1.76 G-F. Regardless of the exact numbers, Timlin's displaying a severe homer problem despite a good G-F ratio. Both his 5.0 K:BB and 7.0 hit rate suggest he's performing rather well, but that homer problem still leaves his ERA at risk for instant upwards movement. Deal or cut Timlin as I don't expect he'll finish below a 3.00 ERA unless he can maintain his quality skills while fixing the problematic one.

July Overachiever: Jose Mesa, RH Closer
Old stats: 29 Saves on 47:26 K:BB in 52 IP over 52 G with 50 H, 4 HR, and a 3.29 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 7 Saves on 5:7 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 10 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 1.74 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever; May: Vicente Padilla, RH Starter; June: Carlos Silva, RH Reliever.

Pittsburgh: Mike Williams, RH Closer
38 Saves on 36:17 K:BB in 52.2 IP over 50 G with 47 H, 5 HR, and a 2.56 ERA.

Williams' return to Pittsburgh has proved mutually beneficial, and with him posting a solid if not dominant skills' set, he should easily surpass his pre-2002 career-high of 24 saves for a second straight season. A 6.2 K/9 is his weakest strikeout rate since converting to relief full-time, but as long as the Pirates keep him in the low-pressure closer role, he should continue to succeed. If you need saves, Williams is a good target to acquire.

July Overachiever: Josh Fogg, RH Starter
Old stats: 10-7 on 71:43 K:BB in 137 IP over 22 GS with 138 H, 21 HR, and a 4.10 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 14:10 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 1 HR, and a 6.41 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever; May: Kip Wells, RH Starter; June: Mike Fetters, RH Reliever.

San Diego: Mike Holtz, LH Reliever
2-1 on 22:24 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 41 G with 35 H, 5 HR, and a 4.41 ERA.

With Oakland, he posted a 6.43 ERA on a .8 K:BB, 4.5 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, and a 15.4 H/9.

Since joining San Diego, he's compiled a 2.89 ERA on a 1.0 K:BB, 7.2 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, and 5.3 H/9.

However Oakland owns one of the best defenses in the majors while only Cleveland is worse than San Diego. We can explain some of the ERA difference by the change in homer rate due to an increase in his G-F from 1.13 in the AL to 1.93 in the NL, but the 10.1 difference in hit rates accounts for nearly all the ERA difference. More exposure in front of the San Diego defense should cause his NL hit rate to rise, reducing his already limited value. Deal or cut Holtz, especially as he's unlikely to emerge into a bigger role any time soon.

July Overachiever: Jake Peavy, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-4 on 23:14 K:BB in 31.1 IP over 6 GS with 34 H, 3 HR, and a 5.46 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 28:6 K:BB in 31.1 IP over 5 GS with 36 H, 4 HR, and a 4.60 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever; May: Brett Tomko, RH Starter; June: Oliver Perez, LH Starter.

San Francisco: Tim Worrell, RH Reliever
8-1 on 47:18 K:BB in 61.1 IP over 67 G with 47 H, 2 HR, and a 2.35 ERA.

San Francisco finishes their last tough road games in Arizona this weekend, and considering the overall depth of Giants' pitching, Worrell looks fairly safe for the rest of the year. A career worst .73 G-F is the only potential problem spot, suggesting a .3 homer rate will rise. His overall skills still make him a solid candidate for any team that needs to fill a low-risk roster spot, and we're comfortable using him on any team. Feel free to acquire him if needed.

July Overachiever: Ryan Jensen, RH Starter
Old stats: 10-7 on 79:44 K:BB in 129 IP over 20 GS(22G) with 132 H, 17 HR, and a 4.41 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 11:9 K:BB in 15 IP over 4 GS with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 6.60 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter; May: Chad Zerbe, LH Reliever; June: Jay Witasick, RH Reliever.

St. Louis: Matt Morris, RH Starter
15-7 on 157:58 K:BB in 188.2 IP over 28 GS with 181 H, 14 HR, and a 3.29 ERA.

He's pitched even better following Tommy John surgery a few years ago, and he looked in line for Cy Young votes again before straining his right hamstring running down the line from the batter's box on August 24th. Morris appears ready to return around September 9th, and he's essential to the Cardinals' playoff drive. As he's displayed no arm trouble over the past two years, he should re-emerge as a dominant force down the stretch. His skills are strong and he's pitched fairly consistently, and since there's little reason for us to expect a lingering injury, his currently decreased value should make him slightly easier to acquire.

July Overachiever: Mike Matthews, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-0 on 26:17 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 38 G with 31 H, 3 HR, and a 3.31 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 6:5 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 5 G with 9 H, 2 HR, and a 7.11 ERA before hitting the DL with a hip flexor.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Veres, RH Reliever; May: Luther Hackman, RH Reliever; June: Jason Simontacchi, RH Starter.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Fri:SF(Schmidt)
Curt Schilling: Sat:SF(Rueter)
Javier Vazquez: Sat:ATL(Marquis)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road games at Houston.
Roy Halladay: Sun:NYY(D.Wells)

No starts: Pedro, Mussina, Clemens, Morris, Zito, Wood, and Oswalt.

Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home games vs. San Francisco.
Mike Williams: 3 Road games at Florida.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Road games at Oakland.
Jorge Julio: 3 Road games at Anaheim.
Scott Stewart: 3 Home games vs. Atlanta.

Today's roster is all about attrition, and we'll certainly spend the couple of bucks as we expect games this weekend. Along with the five playable starters, we'll deploy Oswalt as the cheapest remaining available SP.

On offense, we'll bench all Rockies as they're in San Diego, and the injuries of Sosa and Konerko keep them on our bench. J.D. Drew's been colder than almost anyone left on our roster, and Byung-Hyun Kim finishes off our taxi squad as we can't afford to play him unless we pull a more valuable offensive player.

The Umpire Hunter(1st lg; 16th overall)
Week 22b: August 30-September 1

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1120
OF	Barry Bonds		1830
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Torii Hunter		830
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Vlad Guerrero		1880
DH	Jimmy Rollins		940

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Eric Gagne		500
SP	Roy Halladay		490
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750
RP	Scott Stewart		490

Today's Fantasy Rx: As you can likely tell by the general tone of this website, we're rather more optimistic than most regarding a potential strike. We agree with the opinion of SABR Business Committee Chariman Doug Pappas and many others that if a strike occurs, it will only last around a 1985-esque 2 days.

Therefore, even if we don't have any games for a few days, continue making transactions in the assumption we'll see the vast majority of another month of baseball. If you know an owner in your league convinced that any strike will destroy baseball forever, please call him and try to help your roster. Instead of success in projecting individual players' playing time over the rest of the season determining your standing to a large extent, accurately forecasting league-wide playing time for the rest of the season is now more important. Plan on games from Monday September 9th through the end of the season, with the good possibility that MLB will reschedule any missed games.